Welcome back!

So Warsh wasn’t a puppet chair after all. With Wednesday’s unanimous 25bps rate hike, the market gained confidence in the Fed being serious about its 2% inflation target. What’s next? 1-2 more 25bps hikes look to be on the agenda; unwinding the Powell era cuts.

Equities shook off earlier rate anxiety and pushed higher, buoyed by strong mega-cap tech momentum and resilient corporate earnings that offset broader macro headwinds.

Still, there are some losers, as rate sensitive names will likely struggle in this new higher for longer rate environment.

Let’s get into it.

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Here’s a look at economic data set to be released this morning:

Friday: Industrial Production M/M% (0.3%), Capacity Utilization % (76.5%), Leading Indicators (0.2%)

Earnings Corner 💸

  • Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 2.65% ) missed on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $8.05B vs. $8.32B expected and EPS of $1.23 vs. $1.30 expected. Results were pressured by higher mortgage rates and affordability constraints, with deliveries down 3% and new orders down 9% YoY as mortgage rates approached 7% and resale inventory became more competitive. The company used pricing and incentives to protect volume, while lower construction costs and faster build times helped margins improve slightly. Management cut FY delivery guidance and guided Q4 EPS to $1.30–$1.65, reflecting continued caution around demand and affordability.

  • Hub Group $HUBG ( ▼ 0.93% ) said preliminary 1H26 revenue is expected at $1.7B–$1.8B, roughly in line with expectations, but the company still expects an operating loss before one-time charges. Results were pressured by higher fuel, rail, and drayage costs, excess warehouse capacity, and expenses tied to its accounting review and restatement, which has also delayed its 2025 10-K and 2026 quarterly filings, leaving only preliminary financial results available. Management has begun raising rates, consolidating warehouse capacity, and improving productivity, but has not yet quantified the savings or timing of a return to profitability.

On The Move 📈 📉

  • Intel $INTC ( ▲ 0.63% ) jumped on talks of SK Hynix exploring potential memory chip production at Intel’s Ohio facility.

  • Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 5.11% ) bounced back two days after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act. CEO Brian Armstrong dismissed the bill’s failure and said regulators can move crypto forward without it.

  • Super Micro $SMCI ( ▼ 2.35% ) rose after a Goldman Sachs research report projecting the global AI server market to reach $1.3T by 2030, boosting sector-wide AI infrastructure optimism.

  • CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 1.23% ) fell after announcing $3B in convertible senior notes due 2033, with an option to upsize to $3.5B, and an equity distribution agreement for up to 35M Class A shares.

  • AutoNation $AN ( ▼ 2.96% ) tumbled after management guided Q3 gross profit per unit to fall ~10% sequentially at Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference. EV demand has also sharply slowed after federal incentives expired.

  • Vicor $VICR ( ▲ 0.73% ) surged after announcing a non-exclusive licensing agreement for its Vertical Power Delivery technology, which powers AI processors at high current density.

  • Nuclear stocks $OKLO ( ▼ 4.35% ) and $SMR ( ▼ 3.65% ) rallied after the House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act, which would require data centers to pay for the power infrastructure their demand creates.

  • Ultragenyx $RARE ( ▼ 0.55% ) surged after the FDA approved Fayuvi, its gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome Type A, making it the first approved treatment for the rare and fatal childhood disease.

IPO Roundup 📍

  • Holtec Nuclear postponed its US IPO expected to price Thursday, citing market conditions. The nuclear waste storage and reactor decommissioning firm had been targeting up to $900M at a ~$10.2B valuation, and now says it will continue to evaluate timing.

  • LIAN Group is eyeing a $500M IPO next year, weighing venues in Europe and the US. Terms haven’t been finalized for the AI data center developer.

  • Plaud plans to file for a US IPO in 2028 once annual revenue tops $1B, per CEO Nathan Xu. The AI note-taking software startup is targeting $500M in global sales this year and was valued at $1B+ last year.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

  • Stocks and bonds rallied Thursday as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, a day after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. The S&P 500 $SPGI ( ▼ 0.36% ) rose 1%, chipmakers climbed 3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended an eight-day rising streak.

  • US housing starts fell 2.6% in August to an annualized 1.28M, missing the 1.32M forecast and marking one of the weakest paces since the pandemic, driven by a 22% plunge in multifamily starts.

  • KKR overtook Partners Group as Europe’s largest manager of open-ended private market funds, reaching €13.6Bn across its evergreen platforms in Q1 versus Partners Group’s €13.4B.

  • The World Bank mobilized $112Bn in private capital in the fiscal year through June, nearly matching the $123Bn of its own funds deployed, as leadership argues development needs far exceed the bank’s own resources.

  • OpenAI disclosed six new incidents of “concerning” AI behavior, including systems hiding errors, inventing data, and moving files onto the internet without permission, as part of a new framework for reporting AI misalignment.

  • Paramount Sets California Exit Plans Over Antitrust Battle With Blue States & Stymied $111B WBD Merger.

  • Polymarket is paying LeBron James $15 million a year several times more than he’s making playing for the 76ers this season

  • Canada has been invited to become the first associate member of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen has announced.

  • BREAKING: United Airlines, $UAL, Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen confirmed that the carrier may cancel some December flights if jet fuel prices stay high

  • Palantir CEO Alex Karp warned that AI labs’ business models effectively requires nationalization. Karp told CNBC that the AI industry’s approach to taking IP from businesses “would require severe liability protection, and there’s only one institution that can do that: the US Government.”

  • High bond yields may be the new normal, per Bloomberg. The 10-year Treasury breached 5% (highest since 2007) as fiscal deficits, inflation, and AI capex debt issuance compete for investor capital.

  • OpenAI disclosed multiple previously unreported AI misbehavior incidents and admitted the industry hasn’t solved alignment “to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer.”

  • Crux AI just landed a $22B chip loan to buy Google TPUs. The AI cloud venture from Blackstone and Alphabet is using the loan to fund chip purchases, and the debt is backed by the chips’ value and customer contracts.

  • French property services company Emeria just added €20M of “future AI savings” to its EBITDA. Credit analysts are calling it “fully inappropriate” and one of the first times potential AI benefits have been used as an earnings adjustment.

  • The SEC is interviewing Guggenheim Partners employees as part of a widening probe into Mark Walter’s empire. Walter has been exploring deals to free up cash, which included recent sales of his stakes in the Lakers ($12.5B) and Chelsea FC.

  • Nvidia committed $2B to Brookfield Asset Management’s global AI infrastructure fund. The fund is raising $10B, which is part of Brookfield’s broader plan to raise ~$50B for infrastructure over the next two years.

  • Citigroup raised $12B in its largest-ever US dollar bond sale. The deal drew ~$40B in peak demand (3.3x oversubscribed), and the six big US banks have now sold a combined $177.3B in IG bonds this year.

  • CleanSpark is issuing $2.23B in the first junk bond tied to a Meta data center. The five-year notes are pricing around 8.5%, and the deal funds a Georgia data center under a $6.6B, 20-year Meta lease.

  • Blackstone is facilitating a secondary sale to cash out investors in its $11B US real estate fund. The firm has also cut management fees by 30% for investors who don’t redeem.

M&A Transactions💭

My Mobility, developer of an autonomous technology, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire ACP Holdings Acquisition through a $300.0M reverse merger.

Winbond Electronics (TAI: 2344) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The NOR Flash Memory and Ferroelectric RAM Business of Infineon Technologies (ETR: IFX) for $1.12B.

Continental Candy Industries, manufacturer of private-label confectionery products, was acquired for EUR 207.0M by Orkla Snacks. EV/Revenue was 1.87x.

Caring Group, provider of hospitality and restaurant management services, was acquired for $1.3B by International Holding Company Virginia.

Headspace, developer of a digital mental health platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $300.0M by Sword Health.

General Datatech, provider of information technology services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.05B by Softcat (LON: SCT).

Private Placement Transactions💭

Sling Therapeutics, developer of a biopharmaceuticals therapy, raised $123.0M of Series C venture funding led by Forbin.

Ridgeline AI, developer of an investment management platform, raised $250.0M of Series E venture funding led by David A. Duffield at a pre-market valuation of $1.18B.

Impulse Space, developer of in-space mobility vehicles, raised $808.0M of Series D venture funding led by 137 Ventures and Banner VC at a pre-money valuation of $4.79B.

Mazama Energy, operator of the geothermal electric power generation company, raised $135.0M of Series B venture funding led by Doerr Capital and Centaurus Capital.

D-Robotics, manufacturer of humanoid robots, raised $400.0M of Series C venture funding led by Mirae Asset Global Investments.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 51% chance of a 25 bps increase in October.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket