What you Need To Know for September 18th

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

The Fed officially cut! Rates were cut 25 bps to 4%-4.25%, with Powell admitting the jobs market doesn’t seem solid anymore. It sounds like the Fed is going to go meeting by meeting, with Powell stating “it’s not incredibly obvious what to do.” The vote to cut by 25 bps was 11-1, with newly appointed Fed governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a half-point cut. The Fed’s dot plot points to two more cuts before the end of the year, although some officials indicated just one more reduction while one (likely Miran) pointed towards 125bps in further reductions this year

So what’s next? We’ll get into more below, but right now Kalshi is pricing in a 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut in October.

Lastly, we’re running searches for a few private credit jobs - with origination roles in Cali and DC, an entry-level analyst role in Dallas, and a Credit Analyst role in NYC. Apply directly through those links.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Dave & Buster’s $PLAY ( ▲ 5.16% ) Top & bottom line miss, revenue came in at $557M vs. $563M est. and EPS at $0.40 vs. $0.88 est. SSS fell 3% as traffic softened and discretionary spending tightened, while higher costs pressured EBITDA and profits. Net income dropped sharply YoY. Management pointed to new store openings, a second franchise in India, and the appointment of Tarun Lal as CEO, but consumer weakness and heavier competition in dining/entertainment overshadowed those moves, driving a post earnings selloff.

General Mills $GIS ( ▼ 0.77% ) Revenue beat coming in at $4.52B and EPS beat at $0.86 vs. $0.81. Although results topped expectations, overall sales declined as U.S. retail was pressured by weak demand, consumers switching to private labels, and the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. International and pet food provided some growth, though short of hopes. Management reaffirmed its outlook for flat sales and a double-digit EPS decline while leaning on new products and cost cuts to stabilize.

Cracker Barrel $CBRL ( ▼ 3.16% ) Revenue beat but EPS missed. The quarter was overshadowed by the failed rebrand and logo backlash, forcing a reversal and shifting focus back to customer experience, kitchen investments, and cost control. Management guided FY26 sales below expectations with traffic set to fall 4–7%, foreshadowing the expectation of lower traffic. The stock is down about 9.5% after hours.

Bullish $BLSH ( ▲ 5.82% ) Revenue miss coming in at $57M vs. $60.7M, while EPS beat coming in at $0.93 vs. $0.03. Trading volume hit $180B, marking strong growth since its August IPO and boosted by a newly secured BitLicense for U.S. expansion. Management guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA up to $25–28M vs. $8M in Q2. Stock is up about 2% after hours.

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The Main Story 🔍

ChatGPT use cases might be more lackluster than we thought: OpenAI released data on what people use ChatGPT for, breaking usage down into categories and their share of total activity.

The stats show that most consumer users turn to the AI for low stakes use cases, such as practical guidance (28%), writing assistance (28%), and information seeking (21%).

It was much less common for users to utilize the AI for technical assistance - coding accounted for only 4.2% of total usage, while image generation and mathematical calculations were also low at a respective 4.2% and 3.0%.

Overall, it’s clear that users lean on ChatGPT for casual tasks, but the highly touted advanced technical features have yet to gain traction in everyday use.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• The Downfall of the Brooklyn Mirage: NYC’s favorite EDM party venue went bankrupt earlier this year - in this deep dive by the High Yield Harry credit research team, get the inside scoop on what went wrong

• Quarterly earnings reports are under fire: Trump says companies should report their earnings every six months in order to “save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.” The move would require SEC approval. Most companies would likely welcome the shift, but many investors are concerned the lack of transparency will reduce market efficiency

• China bans Nvidia AI chips: Beijing blocked ByteDance, Alibaba and others from buying H20 and RTX Pro 6000D, saying domestic chips from Huawei and Cambricon now match performance while ($NVDA ( ▼ 2.63% ) ) Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says he hopes to discuss market access with Trump during UK state visit

• StubHub slides in NYSE debut: The ticket reseller raised $800M at $23.50 per share valuing it at $8.1B but the stock fell 6% on first day to $22 after opening at $25.35

• Disney pulls Jimmy Kimmel Live after remarks on Charlie Kirk’s assassination: ABC suspended the late-night show indefinitely following comments criticizing the conservative reaction and after FCC Chair Brendan Carr raised concerns and Nexstar said affiliates would drop the program

• Oracle, Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz look set to control 80% of TikTok US under new framework: A deal being finalized by US and China would spin off a new company with a US-majority board, Oracle managing data in Texas, while Trump delays divestiture enforcement until December

• FICO score averages dropped to 715 from 717 as rising debt, missed payments, and resumed student loan delinquencies weigh on borrowers

• Autonomous ride-sharing is here: Waymo and Lyft are partnering to launch a robotaxi service in Nashville starting in 2026, using a fleet of all-electric autonomous Jaguar I-Pace vehicles. Testing will begin in the coming months, with rides available first through the Waymo app and later through the Lyft app

• Pot kettle? Scott Bessent once signed mortgages pledging two different homes as his primary residence - a similar issue to the one President Trump used to justify firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Mortgage experts say neither case suggests fraud, but the overlap highlights double standards as Trump pushes for greater control over the Fed

• Rick’s is in some serious hot water: The strip club operator RCI Hospitality $RICK ( ▼ 10.39% ) was charged with $8M tax fraud scheme. NY AG alleges executives bribed a state auditor with free trips and private dances to slash sales tax bills on “dance dollars” at Manhattan clubs

• Venture for Main Street: Robinhood has filed to launch a new publicly traded fund that would let everyday investors buy into startups before they go public. The “Ventures Fund I” aims to open access to high-growth sectors like AI, fintech, and aerospace, though key details like fees, timing, and portfolio companies remain unclear.

• Goldman Sachs readies $5.5B loan for Thoma Bravo’s Dayforce buyout: The $12.3B acquisition will be financed with a $6B debt package including a $500M revolver, with loan pricing guided slightly north of S+300 as investors show strong appetite for large buyout financings

• TA Associates delays OmniActive sale on tariff uncertainty: The firm had aimed for a $1B valuation but is now likely to wait until 2026 after US tariffs on Indian goods doubled to 50%, clouding the outlook for Indian exporters like the supplements maker

• Del Monte is weighing a big raise: The food and beverage group is considering up to $800M in new equity to cut debt, exploring a rights issue or placement as it manages $2.39B in borrowings and suspended trading in Singapore-listed shares

• Fyre Festival gets a bargain reboot: LimeWire bought the infamous brand for $245,000 on eBay and plans to repurpose it for “real-world experiences,” starting with a Visa ad via Ryan Reynolds’ Maximum Effort. Billy McFarland says he’ll focus on restitution as LimeWire vows to revive the meme—not the doomed Bahamas fest

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M&A Transactions💭 

Williamson-Dickie, manufacturer of workwear and a subsidiary of VF, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $600.0M by Bluestar Alliance. EV/Revenue was 1.11x. UBS Group advised on the sale.

Vista Bank, provider of commercial bank services, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $369.1M by National Bank Holdings (NYS: NBHC). EV/Net Income was 10.92x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

TruConnecect by TV.FIT, provider of an online fitness video platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 500.0M by ESH Acquisition (NAS: ESHA).

The Hydro and Solar Power Generating Projects of Statkraft was acquired by Serentica Renewables for $235.0M. Standard Chartered advised on the sale.

Hill Top Energy Center, a 620-megawatt natural gas-fired combined-cycle merchant power plant, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.0B by Blackstone. Solomon Partners and Macquarie Capital advised on the sale.

Berry, a western U.S. independent upstream energy company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.129B by California Resources (NYS: CRC). EV/EBITDA was 5.17x and EV/Revenue was 1.59x. Guggenheim advised on the sale.

Altera, developer of programmable logic solutions, was acquired for $4.46B by Silver Lake. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Water Engineering, provider of industrial water treatment services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $150.0M by Kemira (HE: KEMIRA).

Sana, developer of an AI learning platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Workday (NAS: WDAY).

Lakera, developer of a security platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $300.0M by Check Point Software Technologies (NAS: CHKP).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Wealthbox, developer of a financial CRM platform, received $52.0M of financing from undisclosed investors.

Nothing, manufacturer of consumer electronics, raised $200.0M of Series C venture funding led by Tiger Global Management at a pre-money valuation of $1.1B.

Hala, developer of a digital mobile payment platform, raised $157.0M of Series B venture funding led by Sanabil Investments and TPG.

Dyna Robotics, developer of advanced robotic manipulation models, raised $120.0M of Series A venture funding led by RoboStrategy, Big Brain Holdings, First Round Capital, and CRV.

Divergent, developer of an end-to-end digital production system, raised $290.0M of Series E venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $2.06B. The equity portion of $250.0M was raised by undisclosed investors. The transaction was supported by $40.0M of debt financing by Rochefort Management.

Shop Circle, developer of an AI powered global technology company, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. $70.0M of venture funding was led by Nextalia SGR. $30.0M of debt was provided by undisclosed lenders.

Invisible Technologies, developer of a process orchestration platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Vanara Capital.

Firmus, provider of a cloud infrastructure service, raised $320.0M of venture funding from Nvidia, Tectonic Investment Management, and Archibald Capital at a pre-money valuation of $1.58B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut in October.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.