Welcome back.
We got some pretty stark news from a former Anthropic employee on Tuesday night. Jacob Coxon announced he is quitting the AI industry over fears that the lab and its competitors are racing to build systems they won’t be able to control.
For many, this isn’t new information. Anthropic and other AI leaders have been very loudly talking about this risk. But the way this got vocalized (120mm views so far) is starting to send shockwaves across the U.S. Part of why is because of a comment from an Alignment lead at Anthropic:
This is pretty shockingly casual communication from someone creating superintelligence. The casual mention of the 10%+ odds with no plan in place, is something you say if you want people to lose faith in your ability to build the right safeguards with AI. For the people pushing back on data center buildouts, I don’t think they could’ve asked for more fitting ammo. Expect the political backlash to only intensify now.
In terms of other AI updates, I think it’s fair to say “The Year of the Agent” is upon us now:
Meta launched a personal AI agent called Muse. Muse can shop online, respond to emails, and book flights with user approval, and offers $20/month and $100/month tiers.
That’s why $META ( ▲ 6.55% ) was up so much yesterday - they may have finally found PMF for all the $$$ they’ve been spending on AI. Instinct and Astra have been lighting the Tech world on fire, but now Meta is leveraging its massive distribution to bring to market its own personal AI agent.
In non-AI news, oil is on the rise higher as the war continues, and rates moved higher after Bessent’s long-term repurchase plan backfired. Today’s inflation numbers will be extremely important in firming up the Fed’s path this month. Let’s get into it.
Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.
Thursday: Oracle, Adobe, Copart, Macy's, Reformation, Zumiez, Designer Brands, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM
Friday: Kroger Company, Rent the Runway
Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (208K), PPI (0.4%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI M/M% (0.3%), PPI Y/Y% (5.3%), Monthly Wholesale Trade, Existing Home Sales (3.9M)
Friday: CPI (0.4%), Core CPI M/M% (0.2%), CPI Y/Y% (3.4%), CPI Core Y/Y% (2.4%), U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (52.3), Monthly Treasury Balance
Together With 9fin
9fin logged 25 completed LMEs in the first half of 2026, marginally ahead of the 24 recorded in H1 2025. But while volume has held steady, the toolkit has shifted: equity handovers and consensual amend-and-extends now dominate, while the coercive uptier structures that defined 2025 have all but vanished.
Get the full breakdown of every closed deal in the H1 2026 cohort by LME category, sector, and outcome, alongside a like-for-like comparison against H1 2025.
Earnings Corner 💸
United Natural Foods $UNFI ( ▼ 0.71% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $7.64B and adjusted EPS of $0.69. Although sales fell 0.7% YoY as planned optimization actions and weaker conventional and retail sales offset strength in natural foods, revenue still beat expectations as Natural segment sales grew 6.6% and results benefited from an easier comparison against last year’s cybersecurity disruption; meanwhile, cost savings, better distribution center productivity and network optimization lifted margins. Mgmt. guided for FY27 sales and profit growth as new and existing customer business ramps.
Chewy $CHWY ( ▼ 10.83% ) reported revenue of $3.33B and EPS of $0.36, roughly in line with expectations. Sales rose 7.3% YoY as Chewy added customers, grew Autoship sales and gained market share, while lower costs and higher-margin sponsored ads and Chewy Health boosted profitability. Consumers still cut back on discretionary items like treats, and shares fell as the outlook assumes no meaningful consumer recovery.
Jersey Mikes $JMKE ( ▲ 7.45% ) reported its first earnings as a public company, with revenue of $208M vs. $208.7M expected. Systemwide sales grew 10% as 8.1% net unit growth and 2.3% comp sales growth drove results, with comps improving on higher transactions helped by increased digital marketing, loyalty growth and value-focused limited-time offers; franchisees also continue to generate 40%+ cash-on-cash returns, supporting further store expansion. Mgmt. guided FY comps above expectations as traffic momentum accelerated into Q3
Signet Jewelers $SIG ( ▲ 23.96% ) slightly missed on revenue at $1.53B vs. roughly $1.54B expected, but EPS beat at $2.19 vs. $1.74. Comp sales rose 2.2% as customers kept spending on higher-priced bridal and watches, while lower costs and $15M of tariff refunds helped margins despite higher gold costs. Mgmt. raised FY guidance, while announcing a $125M accelerated buyback, helping shares jump.
American Eagle $AEO ( ▼ 1.92% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $1.38B vs. $1.37B expected and EPS of $0.79 vs. $0.21. Comp sales rose 6% as strong momentum at Aerie and OFFLINE drove 25% revenue growth, while American Eagle also improved; profits were heavily boosted by $196M of tariff refunds, which contributed $161M to operating income, and masked margin pressures.
On The Move 📈 📉
Academy Sports and Outdoors $ASO ( ▲ 14.4% ) surged after Q2 adj EPS jumped 19% and gross margin expanded 440 bps. Mgmt also raised FY GMs and EPS guidance.
Cloudflare $NET ( ▲ 10.51% ) jumped after launching Vulnerability Discovery and Remediation, a new AI security service integrating OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Cyber model to automatically find and draft patches for software vulnerabilities.
ServiceTitan $TTAN ( ▼ 29.98% ) tumbled after Q3 revenue guidance of $285-287M came in below the $288M consensus due to a shift to its AI-powered “Max” package, which waives onboarding fees and creates a near-term revenue drag.
Braze $BRZE ( ▼ 21.73% ) plummeted after Q3 adj EPS guidance of $0.13-0.14 fell below the $0.16 consensus. The weak profit outlook outweighed a Q2 beat and raised FY revenue guidance. The stock trades at a 50x forward P/E versus the sector’s 23x.
GameStop $GME ( ▲ 5.29% ) rose after Q2 collectibles revenue jumped 57% to $356.3M, driving a record Q2 operating income and an adj EPS beat of $0.27 versus $0.19 consensus. Management raised its FY adj EBITDA outlook as well.
Casey’s General Stores $CASY ( ▼ 14.24% ) slid after fiscal Q1 same-store sales decelerated across the board. Grocery growth slowed over 100 bps to 2.7% and prepared food slowed 80 bps to 4.8%.
IPO Roundup 📍
EM&E the Spanish defense firm is weighing an IPO at a potential $2.5B valuation to finance European expansion.
Orion180 is seeking to raise up to $340M in its US IPO at a ~$1.7B valuation.
Holtec Nuclear filed for a US IPO to raise up to $900M at a ~$10.2B valuation, tapping surging nuclear demand from AI data centers. The New Jersey firm stores nuclear waste, decommissions shuttered reactors, and is developing small modular reactors with a $400M DOE grant.
Adarx Pharmaceuticals filed for a US IPO to fund its pipeline of five clinical or pre-clinical RNA drugs. The company develops treatments that regulate gene expression without permanently altering DNA, and secured a $335M upfront payment from AbbVie last year, with billions more potentially tied to milestones.
Today’s Jobs:
Ares is hiring PE Secondaries Analysts and Associates (NY)
Oaktree is hiring an ABF VP (NY)
Apollo is hiring a Corporate Credit Underwriting Associate (NY)
JPM is hiring for various 2027 Roles
PIMCO is hiring for various summer 2027 Roles
Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest attempt to lower yields backfired Wednesday, as a $6Bn bond buyback instead pushed the 10-year yield to 4.85%, the highest it’s been since November 2023, dragging stocks down with it.
US mortgage rates rose to 6.85% last week, the highest in more than a year. Rates are up about 75bps since late February, and the MBA refinance index fell to its lowest level since May 2025.
Hunter Biden’s memecoin $LAPTOP ( 0.0% ) tanked within hours of launching Wednesday from a peak of $222 to around $1.80. The top five wallets hold 84% of the free float.
LIV Golf filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after burning through roughly $5B since its 2021 launch. The tour plans to restructure as “LIV 2.0” for the 2027 season with backing from private equity firm BC Partners, and players would own 52.5% of the new entity.
PIMCO says bonds have regained their place in multi-asset portfolios as higher yields restore fixed income’s dual role. Bond yields are now broadly comparable to equity earnings yields, offering attractive income and downside protection.
Palmer Square Capital Management, a $37Bn credit firm run by husband-wife duo Chris and Angie Long, is exploring a sale. The firm’s biggest draw is its $27Bn CLO platform, part of a broader US CLO market that has quadrupled to over $1.3T in the past 15 years.
Dell raised $5Bn in investment-grade bonds, upsized from a planned $4Bn after orders peaked at $23Bn, nearly 5x the deal size versus a 4x average for investment-grade deals this year.
A Barclays-led lender group is preparing a €2.4Bn financing package to back Lone Star Funds’ €4Bn acquisition of ContiTech from Continental AG.
Tether and Fasanara Capital launched StableFund, an evergreen private credit vehicle anchored by $400MM in co-investment, targeting up to $3Bn in third-party institutional capital.
Apple Watch announced a readiness score, a key update that could show the Tech giant is ready to take on Whoop.
Ramp is in talks for new funding at a $60Bn valuation, up sharply from $44Bn three months ago. The company surpassed $1.5Bn in annualized revenue in early June and raised $3Bn to date.
Dow is considering exiting its $20B chemicals joint venture with Saudi Aramco, where it holds a 35% stake. Dow $DOW ( ▼ 0.58% ) share rose on the news.
Banks are preparing to sell more than $138Bn in LBO debt, with US volumes at their highest since 2007.
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M&A Transactions💭
Stride Bank, provider of consumer and commercial banking services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $590.0M by Chime Financial (NAS: CHYM). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.
Hyrox, operator of a global fitness racing platform, had a majority stake acquired by its co-founders alongside an investors led by L Catterton from Infront Sports & Media. The transaction reportedly valued the company at approximately EUR 600.0M.
Bank of Clarke (NAS: EFSI), provider of commercial and retail banking services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $253.0M by John Marshall Bancorp (NAS: JMSB) in an all-stock transaction. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.
BlackSea Technologies, developer of AI-enabled maritime systems for defense and security applications, was acquired for $650.0M by Aevex (NYS: AVEX). EV/Revenue was 4.33x. Raymond James Financial advised on the sale.
Consolidated Precision Products, manufacturer of highly engineered aerospace and industrial castings, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $11.75B by GE Aerospace (NYS: GE). Guggenheim Partners and Morgan Stanley are advising on the sale.
De Wave Group, manufacturer of cruise ship interiors and cabins, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through an approximately EUR 400.0M LBO by Italian investment firm Renaissance Partners. Boston Consulting Group, Clearwater Corporate Finance, and Lazard advised on the sale.
EverBank, provider of banking services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by WaFd Bank through a $3.9B reverse merger, with the combined company expected to trade under the ticker EVBK. J.P. Morgan and Piper Sandler advised on the sale.
SSaavi Energia, operator of electricity generation assets in Mexico, had a 70% stake acquired for an estimated $560.0M by Grupo México (MEX: GMEXICOB), valuing the company at approximately $800.0M.
Stride Bank, provider of banking services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $590.0M by Chime Financial (NAS: CHYM). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.
Tenet Equity, operator of a net-lease real estate investment platform, was acquired for $1.6B by CBRE Investment Management from Cerberus Capital Management. Evercore Group advised on the sale.
Spire Healthcare Group (LON: SPI), operator of private hospitals in the U.K., has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through a GBP 1.03B public to private LBO by Toscafund Asset Management, Three Hills Capital Partners, and Ares Management. Berenberg Bank, Darblay Capital, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Lazard, Perella Weinberg Partners, and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.
HGP Intelligent Energy, developer of nuclear-energy technology, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Meshflow Acquisition (NAS: MESH) through an estimated $345.0M reverse merger. Cantor Fitzgerald advised on the transaction.
Shongtong Power Transmission, a subsidiary of Terralight Solar Energy Tinwari, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through an estimated INR 53.16B LBO by IndiGrid Infrastructure.
Airtable, developer of a low-code app-building and workflow platform, was acquired for $1.285B by Bending Spoons (NAS: BSP). AXOM Partners advised on the sale.
Cat Pumps, manufacturer of high-pressure reciprocating pumps, was acquired for an estimated $400.0M by Franklin Electric (NAS: FELE). The company could receive an additional $50.0M contingent payout in Franklin Electric stock based on future performance. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Kapital Bank, operator of a banking platform, raised $125.0M of venture funding from Tru Arrow Partners, Overlook Capital, and Niya Partners.
Savvy, developer of a wealth-management platform, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Halo Fund, Ryan Smith, and Ryan Sweeney at a post-money valuation of $600.0M.
Solstice Oncology, developer of immuno-oncology therapeutics, raised $225.0M of Series A venture funding led by RA Capital Management, with participation from Harbour BioMed, Forbion, and other investors.
Split Pay, developer of a rent-payment platform, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Khosla Ventures, with participation from Thrive Capital and Max Levchin.
INMO, manufacturer of augmented-reality electronics, raised nearly CNY 1.0B of Series C+ venture funding led by Sichuan Revitalization Sci-Tech Innovation Fund.
BrainChild Bio, developer of cell therapies for pediatric cancers, raised $116.0M of Series A venture funding from Seattle Children’s Hospital, WRF Capital, and other undisclosed investors.
Celero, developer of coherent digital signal processing technology, raised $275.0M of Series C venture funding led by CapitalG, Valor Equity Partners, and Atreides Management at a post-money valuation of $3.0B.
Cognition, developer of AI software engineering technology, raised $2.0B of Series E venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz and Accel at a post-money valuation of $48.0B.
Cylake, developer of an AI-native cybersecurity platform, raised $245.0M of venture funding through convertible debt from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Picture Capital, and Redpoint Ventures.
Fab2 (General Purpose Semiconductors), manufacturer of silicon chips, raised $556.02M of Series A venture funding led by Fundomo at a post-money valuation of $3.7B.
Forus, developer of an AI-powered healthcare technology platform, raised $150.0M of Series C venture funding led by Bain Capital Ventures at a post-money valuation of $3.0B.
Mistral AI, developer of an artificial intelligence platform, raised EUR 3.0B of Series D venture funding led by Samsung Electronics, EQT, and PSG at an estimated pre-money valuation of EUR 18.0B.
Stoke Space, manufacturer of reusable rockets, raised $1.0B of Series E venture funding led by Spark Capital and Point72 Ventures.
The Exploration Company, developer of reusable orbital spacecraft, raised $450.0M of Series C venture funding led by EQT Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Atomico.
Pikkxel, developer of a satellite-based earth observation platform, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Seraphim Space and Temasek Holdings.
Odds of the Day 🍒
Polymarket traders are pricing in a 54% chance of a rate hike this month.
Noteworthy Chart 🧭
Via FT
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