Welcome back. Heads up - we’re back Monday night instead of Sunday Night because of Columbus Day. The stock market is open then, but the bond market isn’t….and I’m a credit guy by heart.
We had a big problem yesterday with OpenAI’s ARR numbers. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue are $20B less than previously signaled; citing annualized revenue of $50B as of 3Q26, less than the $70B reported the other day. This story drove a lot of AI-related stocks to sell off. The problem? It looks like the $70B number is actually intact and it’s $50B net revenue and $70B gross revenue.
Bloomberg came out with a piece last night clarifying ARR is $50B through September, targeting $70B at the end of 2026, and that other outlets were confusing the initial $70B ARR math last month.
So what’s changed with the AI story really? Nothing. It’s Apple & Oranges vs. how Anthropic reports revenue. But what we do really need is for these companies to go public already so we can avoid this type of noise to begin with…
That’s why it’s always good to keep your head on a swivel and look deeper than the headline.
Let’s get into it.
Here’s a look at economic data set to be released this morning:
Today’s Jobs:
Partners Group is hiring a Private Credit Associate (NY)
Oaktree is hiring a Senior Associate (LA)
Blackstone is hiring a Credit Secondaries MD/Principal (NY)
PIMCO is hiring an European Rates Trader (London)
Ares is hiring an AI Project Manager (NY)
Earnings Corner 💸
Samsung Electronics $SSNLF ( ▲ 115.5% ) Posted preliminary Q3 results, projecting operating profit of 107.4T won and revenue of 195T won as surging AI-driven memory demand, tight DRAM/NAND supply and stronger HBM shipments pushed chip prices higher. The print would mark a fourth straight record-profit quarter, with memory supply expected to remain tight into 2028.
PepsiCo $PEP ( ▲ 3.73% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $25.27B vs. $24.96B expected and EPS of $2.34 vs. $2.29. Results were driven by international growth and higher volumes, while North America remained weak as price-conscious and health-focused consumers weighed on snacks and soft drinks and higher costs pressured margins. Mgmt. cut FY26 EPS growth guidance to 2.5%–3.5% from 5%–7%.
Applied Digital $APLD ( ▲ 0.17% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $341.9M vs. $135.3M expected and EPS at a lower then expected loss. Results were driven by the ramp of its AI/HPC data-center business, with HPC hosting revenue reaching $262.6M as new capacity came online and long-term hyperscaler leases began contributing. The company has already leased 1.41 GW of capacity under long-term contracts worth about $36B, though heavy buildout spending and debt remain a drag.
Levi Strauss & Co $LEVI ( ▼ 2.36% ) missed slightly on revenue but beat on earnings, with revenue of $1.61B vs. $1.62B expected and EPS of $0.48 vs. $0.36. Results were helped by wholesale and international growth, while weaker U.S. DTC traffic and warm weather in Europe weighed on sales. Mgmt. raised FY EPS guidance.
On The Move 📈 📉
Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 5.48% ) was among the tech stocks that fell after the OpenAI ARR miscommunication.
Chipotle $CMG ( ▲ 6.21% ) jumped on reports that Starbucks has sought advice on a takeover, though it’s unclear whether a formal offer has been made.
Skydance $SKYD ( ▲ 4.39% ) rose as it began trading under a new ticker following its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.
Telecom stocks $T ( ▲ 1.64% ), $TMUS ( ▲ 2.18% ), and $VZ ( ▲ 1.27% ) sank in after-hours trading after SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide low-band spectrum licenses from Grain Management to expand Starlink Mobile.
Haemonetics $HAE ( ▲ 17.46% ) popped after CSL said it plans to move all of its U.S. plasma collection centers onto Haemonetics’ devices by the end of 2027.
Wolfspeed $WOLF ( ▼ 1.12% ) wiped out Wednesday’s gains from the Department of War announcing a $1.5Bn conditional loan commitment to expand U.S. production of chip materials used in defense systems.
Webull $BULL ( ▲ 1.02% ) plunged on Wednesday after the House Select Committee on China called it a national security risk, citing ownership, data, and workforce ties to China.
Humana $HUM ( ▼ 2.37% ) soared and Alignment Healthcare $ALHC ( ▲ 1.87% ) tumbled after hours after new Medicare Advantage Star Ratings upgraded Humana’s largest contract to 4 stars and cut Alignment’s to 3.5.
IPO Roundup 📍
Nvidia-backed Firmus Grid is set to postpone its Australian IPO and is weighing a private funding round instead, following sinking demand and investor concern over a potential share overhang from existing holders.
Anthropic’s IPO investors are struggling to put a price on AI safety risks ahead of a listing that could value the company at up to $2Tn. The company aims to match or top SpaceX’s record $86.2Bn raise.
Refresco is weighing an IPO in the US or Europe that could value it at $10Bn+, up from the ~$8Bn KKR paid in 2022. The Dutch company is one of the world’s largest independent beverage manufacturers.
Iambic Therapeutics, the Nvidia-backed AI drug developer, set terms to sell ~9.4mm shares at $15-$17 each in its IPO. The deal values the company at ~$780mm, and the proceeds should fund operations through the end of 2028.
Blue Origin will likely go public “several years from now,” founder Jeff Bezos said, after the company raised $10Bn in its first outside funding round.
Trinity Metals is preparing for a New York IPO as tungsten prices have risen more than eightfold in two years. The Rwandan miner is also in talks for pre-IPO funding.
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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
Carlyle warns private credit not to repeat its software mistakes as it finances AI. The AI compute buildout could require roughly $1Tn in private credit, more than half the industry’s current AUM. Its advice is to set concentration limits before the buildout accelerates further.
Nassim Taleb warned that the bond market is “very vulnerable,” arguing that a pullback by domestic buyers such as US retirees and funds from long-duration debt could undercut the record-setting stock rally.
The Trump Administration has barred firms like Microsoft, Adobe, and other info-tech firms from a green card program, accusing them of abusing the system.
Temasek’s CIO says “the unwinding of the AI trade is the biggest risk” for 2027. The firm plans to shift more of its AI exposure into public markets so it can pivot quickly.
Investors pulled $2.4Bn from Guggenheim’s four largest mutual funds in September. The outflows came after reports that federal authorities are probing CEO Mark Walter’s business dealings.
Private credit managers are looking to offload battered funds as investors pull back and direct lending shrinks. Rivals including Ares, Barings, BC Partners, and Churchill have considered buying them.
Hamilton Lane says Mexico has become one of the most important links in the global supply chain. Its Class A industrial properties trade at cap rates 200 to 300 bps wider than comparable U.S. assets, despite similar quality.
Federal regulators fined American Express $350mm for anti-money laundering lapses. The bank missed about $13Bn of suspected money laundering over the past decade.
Oaktree says high rates are the “new normal” for credit investors. Investors are earning more, but borrowers with too much debt are getting squeezed. Its advice is to lock in elevated yields while avoiding weak credits and being ready to provide rescue financing.
The US Defense Department has pledged a conditional 30-year senior secured loan of up to $1.5Bn to Wolfspeed, a chipmaker that filed for bankruptcy in July 2025, in exchange for warrants to buy 7.5% of its shares.
Wells Fargo is subject to a fair-lending investigation over its nearly decade-long programs to boost Black homeownership, including a 2017 pledge of $60Bn in loans to add 250,000 Black homeowners in 2027.
The Fed’s September minutes showed no urgency for an October rate hike, with most participants expecting another increase by year-end but policymakers stressing that decisions depend on incoming data.
President Trump is set to announce $2.4Bn in AI commitments from tech companies for his Genesis mission research initiative, including Nvidia, AMD, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.
Apple is replacing M&A chief Adrian Perica with longtime lieutenant Steve Smith, the latest management change under new CEO John Ternus.
ICYMI: Deal teams on F2 go from data room to term sheet in hours, with sensitivities and downside cases still run on every deal. Screening now takes an afternoon. Book a demo
TalM&A Transactions💭
BlueHarbor Bank (OTCM: BLHK), provides personal and commercial banking products and online banking services, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by TowneBank (NAS: TOWN) for $153.999M. D.A. Davidson Companies advised on the sale.
Biolife Solutions, a life sciences company that develops, manufactures, and markets bioproduction products and services, was acquired by Repligen (NAS: RGEN) for $1.528B. EV/Revenue was 14.87x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.
Acuon Capital, provider of consumer finance and leasing services, was acquired by Hanwha Life Insurance (KRX: 088350), a subsidiary of Hanwha (KRX: 000880), and Centroid Investment Partners for KRW 870.0B. EV/Net Income was 10.25x. Citigroup and UBS Group advised on the sale.
The Boots Group, operator of healthcare, pharmacy and retail stores intended for customers and patients, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Fairfax Financial Holdings and Wittington Investments through an estimated $8.9B LBO.
Heidelberg Materials (ETR: HEI) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Operations in Sweden and Norway of NCC (STO: NCC A) for approximately SEK 5.5B.
CRH (NYS: CRH) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Operations in Denmark and Finland of NCC (STO: NCC A) for approximately SEK 2.7B.
Great Plains National Bank, operator of a full-service community bank intended to provide financial services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Third Coast Bank. (NYS: TCBX) for an estimated $239.6M.
Exolaunch, provider of satellite launch services intended to provide access to space for small satellites, was acquired by EQT for $339.0M. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
CosmoNet, provider of integrated it services intended for hardware and specialty retail stores, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by True Data (TKS: 4416) for $220.0M.
99 West Paces, a 312-unit apartment tower located in Atlanta, Georgia, was acquired by Hines Global Income Trust for $240.0M.
Ovo, operator of an energy supply company intended to help reduce energy bills and our collective carbon footprint, was acquired by E.ON (ETR: EOAN) for GBP 675.0M.
Goltens, provider of engineering services intended to minimize asset downtime for marine and industrial sectors, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by HD Hyundai (KRX: 267250) for $247.0M.
A.Hak, provider of infrastructure services intended to provide safe and reliable availability of water and energy, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Royal BAM Group (AMS: BAMNB) for EUR 504.0M.
Pacira BioSciences (NAS: PCRX), a provider of non-opioid pain management and regenerative health solutions dedicated to advancing and improving outcomes for healthcare practitioners and their patients, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Viatris (NAS: VTRS) for $1.866B. EV/EBITDA was 17.4x and EV/Revenue was 2.5x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Parallel, developer of autonomous rail vehicles designed to convert freight from truck to rail. The company offers autonomous battery-electric rail vehicles, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding in a deal led by AVP, Hillspire, Agility Global, and Cobalt Capital.
Matchpoint Therapeutics, developer of precision small-molecule medicines intended to harness the power of covalency to transform the treatment of immune diseases, raised $150.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal led by Nextech Invest and Norwest.
Atomic Machines, developer of robotic manufacturing machines designed to create a new class of micro-electromechanical devices, raised $105.8M of venture funding from Tru Arrow Partners, Construct Capital, and KAS Venture Partners.
Universal Quantum, developer of quantum computing technologies designed to enable reliable, large-scale quantum systems, raised an estimated $100.0M of Series A venture funding in a deal led by DCVC and Firgun Ventures.
Oratomic, developer of quantum computing hardware designed for fault-tolerant and utility-scale quantum computers, raised $475.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal led by ARCH Venture Partners, Spark Capital, Khosla Ventures, Index Ventures, General Catalyst, and Bezos Expeditions, putting the company's pre-money valuation at $4.93B.
Manus AI, developer of an artificial intelligence workspace designed to help people research, create, and manage tasks across the web, raised $500.0M of venture funding in a deal led by IDG Capital and Boyu Capital on, putting the company's pre-money valuation at an estimated $3.5B.
VEIR, developer of an evaporative cryogenic cooling technology designed to solve the high-temperature superconductor cooling challenge, raised $110.0M of Series C venture funding in a deal led by Tyche Partners and Matter Venture Partners.
Noteworthy Chart 🧭
The pace and scale of AI borrowing is putting growing pressure on tech debt.
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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. Todays Partners are Alumni Ventures and f2.