Welcome back!

Man, I do not like this rates move. The 10 year is now at 5.25% and the 30 year is at 5.62%! Brent remains above $100 as the U.S. Iran war continues. Eventually, these rates are not conducive to financing - as you’ve seen some IPOs and debt financings shelved, plus some weak Paramount bond trading.

All eyes are on employment #s at 8:30am (unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.1%). Polymarket odds of a “no change” rate decision in October are at 74%, but December odds for a 25bps hike are at 72%.

Let’s get into it.

BDC Watchlist identifies $4.19bn of ‘at risk’ loans across more than 170 BDCs; over a third are in software

9fin’s latest BDC Watchlist identifies 118 credits whose weighted average fair value marks declined by five percentage points or more between Q1 and Q2 26. Together, these credits represent $4.19bn in fair value.

Just under 36% of the affected credits by fair value fall under Information Technology, which includes software. More than half have a maturity of 2029 or sooner.

The report uses 9fin’s new BDC Valuations Tool to examine which credits saw the biggest declines in aggregate marks, which BDCs hold them and which sponsors have the most names on the watchlist.

Ask complex questions across 9fin's full data set — covenants, cap tables, financials, filings, news, and 9fin analysis — and get a fully cited answer in seconds. Effortlessly screen for opportunities, deep-dive into a credit and track evolving situations in real-time.

Earnings Corner 💸

  • Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 3.03% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $54.23B vs. $51.33B and EPS of $33.42. Revenue surged on AI data-center and HBM demand, while tight DRAM/NAND supply supported pricing and Micron signed 10 new supply agreements, bringing the total to 26. Mgmt. guided Q1 revenue above expectations, with 75%+ of FY27 shipments already committed and memory supply expected to stay tight through 2028.

  • Factset $FDS ( ▲ 2.84% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $634.7M and EPS of $4.52 vs. $4.32. Results were driven by 7% organic ASV growth, with AI products contributing 10%+ of new ASV and retention above 95%. Mgmt. guided FY27 revenue growth of 5%–6%, with margins expected to improve on restructuring and AI-driven productivity.

  • Nike $NKE ( ▼ 0.71% ) Missed on the top line but beat on the bottom line, with revenue of $11.21B vs. $11.32B expected and EPS of $0.48. Results were pressured by weakness in Sportswear, Jordan and Greater China, which outweighed growth in performance categories, while lower warehousing and logistics costs helped margins. Mgmt. guided FY27 revenue to decline high single digits and EPS to $1.15–$1.35 vs. ~$1.65 expected as it restructures and cuts supply to rebuild demand

  • Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 15.78% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $18.68B vs. $18.03B expected and EPS of $3.29 vs. $3.18. Results were driven by broad-based demand and strong AI-related work, with new bookings rising to $22.2B and a record 141 client bookings of $100M+, easing concerns that AI would disrupt consulting demand. Mgmt. guided FY27 revenue growth of 3%–6%, above expectations, while EPS guidance was roughly in line, supported by continued AI and data demand.

On The Move 📈 📉

  • Mattel $MAT ( ▲ 18.8% ) surged after Authentic Brands Group reportedly discussed a takeover offer that could value the toymaker around $6B.

  • Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▲ 11.69% ) bounced back from Tuesday’s 20%+ selloff despite a Bank of America downgrade to Neutral, which cut its PT in half to $700.

  • Synopsys $SNPS ( ▲ 12.78% ) jumped after announcing deals with Amazon and OpenAI at its investor day. The Amazon agreement is a multi-year IP deal worth more than $1B to accelerate AWS chip design.

  • Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▼ 9.58% ) slid after pricing $41.4B in senior secured notes to fund its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. The drop came despite a federal judge clearing the deal’s final antitrust hurdle.

  • Grindr $GRND ( ▼ 8.17% ) fell after agreeing to acquire telehealth provider Freddie for $250M in a $190M cash and $60M stock deal.

  • Fervo Energy $FRVO ( ▲ 6.4% ) climbed after starting commercial power sales from its Cape Station plant, the world’s first enhanced geothermal plant to reach that milestone.

IPO Roundup 📍

  • Anthropic is eyeing a pre-Thanksgiving IPO and will hold a pre-IPO investor day on Oct. 14. Prospective investors see a fair valuation of $1.8-2T.

  • Kalshi is finalizing a funding round at a ~$40B valuation, which is expected to be its last before an IPO as soon as next year. The prediction market platform hit ~$4B in annualized revenue as of August, and its valuation is up from $11B last December.

  • Accelevation $ACCV ( ▼ 7.6% ) closed just below its $18 IPO price, after raising $540M in an offering priced below its range. The data center infrastructure company has a ~$4B market value.

Today’s Jobs:

  1. Goldman Sachs is hiring a Hybrid Capital Investing Associate (NY)

  2. BlackRock (GIP) is hiring an Infra PE VP (Midstream/LNG/New Energies) (NY)

  3. PIMCO is hiring an Alternatives Operations Manager (London)

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.28% this week, up from 7.03% and the highest since November 2023, amid inflation fears tied to the Iran war, pushing more buyers toward adjustable-rate mortgages.

  • Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, touting competitive cybersecurity and leading software engineering at a price of $2/$10 per million input/output, matching OpenAI's discounted GPT-6.1 Sol.

  • Stress continues for stressed borrowers as 80% of private credit firms are building restructuring expertise to prepare for taking ownership of troubled borrowers. 15% of actively rated private credit borrowers are now receiving capital support or covenant relief, and US lenders foreclosed on $22.3Bn of pre-takeover principal in H1 2026 alone.

  • Paramount’s investors suffered more than $100M in paper losses within hours of its $52Bn debt sale to fund the Warner Bros. Discovery buyout, as high-yield bonds fell from 100 cents to 96 cents on their first trading day.

  • Citadel CEO Ken Griffin donated $3Bn to Carnegie Mellon, including $2Bn to launch a new campus in Miami and $1Bn to the Pittsburgh campus, marking the largest individual donation to higher education in US history.

  • Carlyle warned private credit firms risk repeating the “SaaS apocalypse” with their AI infrastructure financing push, estimating that the industry needs to provide $1T toward AI compute buildout.

  • Ares and Apollo are leading a $6.5B debt package for telecom tower owner Phoenix Tower International. Ares is providing around $2B, while Apollo and its affiliate Apterra committed $1.8B.

  • The AI boom is setting clean energy up for a private investment surge. Data centers are increasingly turning to solar and battery storage, which made up 70% of new power capacity added in the first half of the year.

  • Apple plans to push into the smart-home market on Oct. 13, one of new CEO John Ternus’s first big moves. The lineup centers on a home hub that recognizes each household member and shows their own messages, calendar, and apps.

  • Apollo is set to provide financing for a $15B AI infrastructure project in Japan. Japan’s largest power generator, Jera, and Dell are partners on the venture, which is expected to begin operations around 2028.

  • Ares raised $4.2B for its debut secondaries fund, more than quadruple its initial target. “We probably underestimated the demand for the product,” said head of secondaries Nate Walton.

  • Audax Private Credit has raised a $5.4B Fund III, exceeding its $4B target. Audax Private Debt now manages $30B+ and has over $10B of investable capital.

  • Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos says “we’re not growing as fast as I want us to.” Engagement grew 2% in its latest period, and shares have fallen about 24% this year.

  • Pool supplier Leslie’s filed for Chapter 11 with a plan to cut about 90% of its debt and hand control to creditors. The company is also closing 76 stores and aims to emerge in early 2027.

Investment Banking Recruiting Event:

We’re working to add more free events and resources for both students and professionals. Through Leland, we are excited to share that they are running an Investment Banking Week virtual event, hosted from October 12th-October 15th, that you can sign up for here.

M&A Transactions💭

Capital Bank (NAS: CBNK), a bank holding company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $728.1M by Peoples Bank (NAS: PEBO). EV/Net Income was 12.92x and EV/Revenue was 2.93x. Stephens advised on the sale.

Brakebush, producer of further-processed chicken products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.055B by Hormel Foods (NYS: HRL). William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

SoundThinking, a safety technology company, is being taken private by Transom Capital Group.

Acuon Capital, provider of consumer finance and leasing services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $735.11M by Hanwha Life Insurance and Centroid Investment Partners. EV/Net Income was 0.12x. Citigroup and UBS Group advised on the sale.

Seoul Electric Wire, manufacturer of industrial cable, was acquired for KRW 310.0B by Helios Private Equity.

PurposeMed, operator of growth telehealth brands, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $250.0M by Grindr (NYS: GRND).

The Lighting Business Division of OPmobility (PAR: OPM) has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $443.0M by Hyundai Mobis (KRX: 012330).

Nippon Sheet Glass, engaged in architectural glass, automotive glass, and technical glass businesses, was acquired for $3.7B by Apollo Global Management. EV/EBITDA was 19.47x and EV/Revenue was 0.63x.

The Casting Business of Georg Fischer was acquired by Consolidated Precision Products for CHF 220.0M.

DigitalBridge Group, a developer of alternative asset manager, was acquired for $3.284B by SoftBank Group (TKS: 9984). EV/EBITDA was 10.65x and EV/Revenue was 5.39x.

Krestrel Coal Resources, operator of a coal mine, was acquired for $2.4B by Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL). Bank of America and Macquarie Group advised on the sale.

Evie Networks, developer of a charging network platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 225.0M by Ampol (ASX: ALD).

Private Placement Transactions💭

Novig, developer of a peer-to-peer sports trading platform, raised an undisclosed amount of money from Forerunner Ventures and Pantera Capital at a post-money valuation of $2.0B.

Sudu Technology, manufacturer of a robotic system, raised over CNY 1.0B of venture funding led by Fortera Capital, Shanghai State-Owned Pioneer Private Equity Fund Management, and Guotai Junan Securities.

GMI Cloud, provider of AI inference cloud infrastructure, raised $223.0M of Series B venture funding led by ARCHIV Capital Management.

Core Optical, manufacturer of optical interconnection products, raised CNY 1.0B of Series Pre-A and Series A venture funding from Biwin Storage Technology (SHG: 688525), Capital Global Management, and China-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City Investment & Development.

CScale, developer of optical semiconductor solutions, raised $145.0M of Series C venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners, Premji Invest, and Atreides Management.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 30% chance of the LA Dodgers winning the World Series.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Time spent at home is on the rise:

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. Todays Partners are 9fin and Leland. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket