Welcome back!
It’s great to be speaking to you all in a lighter tone than the past couple of weeks. Anthropic’s healthy-looking S-1 gave the market some relief and the AI trade carried the market yesterday. While Anthropic’s numbers are backwards-looking, the pre-Thanksgiving IPO looks well on track. The question now turns to whether that $2T valuation will hold or whether “ANT” will be closer to $1.5T. The capital allocation musical chairs are still early innings, but Anthropic has clearly grabbed its chair (as has Meta).
Today’s only potential hiccup? The Fed is meeting today and is going to lay out what they’re likely to do in December and 2027. Let’s read the tea leaves and see where rates go. Let’s get into it.
Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, GE Vernova, KLA Corporation, T-Mobile, ServiceNow, ADP, Phillips 66, FedEx, Ford Motor Company, Chipotle, Biogen, GE HealthCare, Carvana, eBay, Boston Scientific, O'Reilly Automotive, International Paper, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equinix, Raymond James Financial, Stellantis
Thursday: Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bristol Myers Squibb, Stryker, Starbucks, Trane Technologies, Mondelez International, Republic Services, Coinbase, D.R. Horton, Roblox, Hershey, Restaurant Brands International, Reddit, First Solar, Rivian, Hyatt Hotels, Crocs, Norwegian Cruise Line, Harley-Davidson
Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, BP, General Dynamics, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Colgate-Palmolive, Canadian National Railway, Newell Brands, Capri Holdings
Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).
Wednesday: Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories, U.S. interest rate decision (no change)
Thursday: Advance estimate GDP (3.2%), Weekly Jobless Claims (200K), Personal Income M/M% (0.3%), Consumer Spending (0.6%), PCE Price Idx M/M% (0.5%), PCE Price Idx Y/Y% (3.7%), PCE Core Price Idx M/M% (0.3%), PCE Core Price Idx Y/Y% (3.1%)
Friday: Employment Cost Index (0.8%), Chicago Business Barometer ISM Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
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Earnings Corner 💸
Verizon $VZ ( ▲ 1.93% ) missed on revenue at $34.31B vs. $34.77B, while EPS beat at $1.31 vs. $1.27. Weaker equipment sales weighed on revenue as fewer customers upgraded devices, while stronger wireless subscriber growth, low churn and better margins supported profitability. The company added 406K postpaid phone customers vs. ~195K expected and signed a $2B+ Amazon deal to build fiber connectivity for AWS AI data centers. Mgmt. raised 2026 EPS, subscriber, revenue growth and free cash flow guidance for the third straight quarter.
Visa $V ( ▼ 0.57% ) Revenue came in roughly in line at $12.14B, while EPS beat at $3.48, as resilient consumer spending and travel drove higher payment volumes, cross-border activity and transactions. Growth was broad across its payments businesses, though higher client incentives partially offset gains. Mgmt. issued a softer than expected FY27 outlook.
Coca-Cola $KO ( ▼ 1.64% ) Beat on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue at $13.4B, as stronger international demand, Zero Sugar growth and higher concentrate sales offset flat North American volumes. Global unit case volume rose 5%, while mgmt. raised its 2026 revenue and earnings outlook for the third straight quarter.
Boeing $BA ( ▼ 10.69% ) Beat on revenue at $24.19B, but posted a wider-than-expected EPS loss as higher supply-chain and production costs weighed on its commercial aircraft business. The company’s defense revenue rose 15%, but delays in the 737 Max ramp remain a key concern, with the company now not expecting a meaningful production increase until 2H27 as wing production remains constrained.
JetBlue Airways $JBLU ( ▲ 18.99% ) Reported revenue roughly in line at $2.81B, while EPS posted a bigger than expected loss as fuel costs surged 57% YoY. Higher fares, strong demand and network improvements helped drive 18% unit revenue growth, while the company said its $2.2B liquidity position gives it enough runway to stay on track for profitability and its $1 EPS target in 2028.
Novartis $NVS ( ▲ 1.98% ) Slightly missed on revenue at $14.52B vs. $14.56B, while EPS beat at $2.46, as strong growth from newer cancer, multiple sclerosis and cholesterol drugs helped offset a 38% decline in its heart-failure drug Entresto after generic competition entered the market. Cost savings also supported profitability, while a failed late stage neuromuscular drug trial triggered a $1.9B impairment. Mgmt. raised its 2026 profit outlook.
Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 1.85% ) Revenue came in roughly in line at $1.42B, while EPS missed as a 55% drop in crypto revenue, lower interest income and higher expenses weighed on profits. Strong options, equities and prediction-market trading helped offset the weakness, but it’s currently off -7% after hours.
Royal Caribbean $RCL ( ▲ 5.46% ) Slightly missed on revenue at $5.59B vs. $5.61B, while EPS beat as strong last minute bookings and onboard spending in Europe and the Caribbean supported profits. Demand remains strong, with 2027 bookings pacing ahead of historical levels at higher rates, while mgmt. raised its 2026 earnings outlook.
Hilton $HLT ( ▼ 2.06% ) Missed on revenue at $3.33B vs. $3.37B, while EPS beat as strong business and group travel offset softer leisure demand. Business travel room revenue rose 8.3%, helped by manufacturing, tech and infrastructure activity, while the Middle East remained a drag. Mgmt. raised its 2026 room-revenue outlook.
S&P $SPGI ( ▼ 0.38% ) Beat on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue at $3.68B, helped by strong growth in its index and energy businesses. The company also launched a strategic review of Capital IQ and parts of its AI/data platform, potentially leading to a separation, while mgmt. raised its 2026 revenue and EPS outlook.
PayPal $PYPL ( ▲ 2.0% ) Missed on revenue at $8.58B vs. $8.71B, while EPS beat as cost cuts, buybacks and stronger Venmo/financial-services growth supported profits. Core branded checkout remained the weak spot, with payment volume growing just 1%–2% for a fourth straight quarter, while mgmt. raised its 2026 EPS outlook.
On The Move 📈 📉
The broader AI sector rallied after Anthropic publicly filed for its IPO, revealing H1 2026 revenue of $16.29Bn, up 1,304% from a year earlier. Chipmakers $MU ( ▲ 2.77% ), $AMD ( ▲ 5.46% ), and $NVDA ( ▲ 0.9% ) were among the gainers.
DoorDash $DASH ( ▲ 1.26% ) is in advanced talks to acquire Instacart $CART ( ▼ 1.31% ) in a deal that could value it at about $17Bn. An agreement could come as soon as this week.
Celestica $CLS ( ▲ 12.12% ) jumped after Q3 revenue surged 82.5% to $5.83Bn on AI data center demand. The company also raised its 2026 outlook and forecast about 90% revenue growth in 2027.
Innodata $INOD ( ▼ 25.32% ) plunged after reports of major layoffs tied to falling business assignments, raising concerns about growth in its AI data annotation services.
Xylem $XYL ( ▼ 14.21% ) sank after lowering its 2026 revenue forecast to about $8.95Bn from $9.2Bn as metering affordability pressures and project timing weighed on sales.
Cintas $CTAS ( ▼ 4.93% ) and UniFirst $UNF ( ▼ 10.46% ) fell after the FTC reportedly told both companies it plans to sue to block their $5.5Bn merger.
Roblox $RBLX ( ▲ 0.18% ) recovered from an early drop after Bleecker Street Research disclosed a short position and questioned its child safety controls, estimating new users fell about 50% last quarter.
IPO Roundup 📍
Anthropic filed its S-1 publicly and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker $ANT ( 0.0% ). Some key takeaways:
H1 2026 revenue rose 1,304% to $16.29Bn, up from $1.16Bn a year earlier.
Implied gross margin rose to 85% in H1 2026, up from 12% a year earlier.
Net revenue retention hit ~900%.
It has ~$417Bn in compute obligations, plus $125-150Bn ordered for 2028-2031.
It will pay SpaceX ~$3.1Bn per month for compute once capacity is delivered.
Some insiders can start selling on day one (10%) under a staggered lock-up schedule.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley landed the top roles on the IPO.
JPM will lead the sale to US individual investors, while Citigroup will coordinate internationally.
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery drew about 3x the orders it targeted for its $1.6Bn IPO, putting it on track to expand the deal to as much as $2.1Bn. The company plans to list on the Nigerian Exchange later in November.
Redotpay is weighing a confidential US IPO filing by year-end and is also in talks for a pre-IPO round at a $4-5Bn valuation. The Hong Kong crypto payments firm has 9mm+ customers and $180mm+ in annualized revenue.
Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
Meta is selling $97.5Bn of stock to fund its AI buildout, including $25Bn of priced common at $625/share and $12.5Bn of 6.5% convertible preferred, with up to $60Bn of new nonvoting stock to be sold gradually starting next year, after free cash flow turned negative for the first time since 2012.
Advent has raised $30Bn across its global buyout strategy and new mid-market fund, including $27Bn for its 11th flagship fund, as it reported $13Bn of realizations this year and over 80% of commitments came from existing investors.
H.I.G. Capital has added force majeure-style clauses to its €470M loan backing its Terras Group stake that could let borrowers pause default remedies if AI disruption hits.
This is going to become a massive case study - can borrowers add “AI disruption” clauses to their docs now? And if so, how vague or defined can it be?
SpaceX signed a $40Bn equipment-finance lease with Apollo to fund Nvidia chip purchases for its AI buildout, as its credit-default swaps hit a record 266bps despite its investment-grade ratings.
PIMCO has agreed to buy a $4Bn slice, participating in the A2 tranche of the debt package.
CVC Marathon CEO Bruce Richards warned that many CCC-rated borrowers have “no way out” but restructuring as refinancing costs climb, expecting a “big step function higher” in default rates next year.
PE-backed education names are struggling as K-12 budget cuts take hold. Half of US school districts are in deficit, forcing cuts to materials and software. Loans to Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Renaissance Learning, and Lakeshore Learning Materials are trading in and out of distressed levels.
Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers, roughly a quarter of its staff, across the US, Canada, India, and the UK at the VP level and below as it retools its workforce for AI.
Skydance is requiring five days a week in the office for staff across the combined Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, offering those who opt out a baseline buyout for two weeks of severance per year of service, with a November 8 decision deadline.
JPMorgan Asset Management’s Bob Michele sees the US bond market returning 7-8% over the next 12 months, driven by price appreciation and carry with the Treasury curve near 5%.
Universal Music Group management is holding preliminary take-private talks with Apollo, TPG, and Blackstone, with shares up 6% on the news and down 27% this year.
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan intervened to seal “Project North Star,” a $63Bn financing for Anthropic to lease Broadcom-Google chips, the largest AI infrastructure deal ever, with Broadcom guaranteeing the bank-led portion against Anthropic default and Blackstone partly financing $18Bn of riskier debt.
AI agents could be trading bonds at Wall Street banks within a couple of years. Barclays expects electronic trading to rise to 65% of US IG bond volume from 45%, while high yield doubles to 50%.
Law firm Weil Gotshal has hired Davis Polk restructuring lawyers amid mounting partner exits. Merger talks with Willkie Farr fell through, and its options include a potential wind-down.
PIMCO sees rising yields testing the weakest credits. CCC rated companies, fiscally vulnerable sovereign issuers, and leveraged AI borrowers face distinct pressures from higher funding costs. Plus, growing AI debt supply is also adding competition for capital.
M&A Transactions💭
Apollo to buy nearly 10% stake in Abu Dhabi-backed alternative asset manager Mubadala Capital.
Octopus Investments Aust, via its financial sponsors APG Group and Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan, entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Wind Farm 2 Property of Golden Plains Wind Farm through a $2.0B LBO.
Ultra Maritime, manufacturer of undersea warfare systems and services intended for enhancing maritime defense capabilities for allied and partner nations, was acquired by Lockheed Martin (NYS: LMT) for $3.5B. EV/Revenue was 4.46x. Guggenheim and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
TPC Group, manufacturer of value-added products derived from natural gas-based petrochemical raw materials, was acquired by ENEOS Holdings (TKS: 5020), a subsidiary of JX Advanced Metals, for an estimated $758.0M. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.
Roots, a portfolio of apparel, leather goods, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and children under the Roots brand, was acquired by Joseph Mimran & Associates for CAD 273.9M. EV/EBITDA was 6.8x and EV/Revenue was 0.96x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
Ares Capital agrees to buy Apollo’s MidCap Financial Investment (NAS: MFIC), an externally managed, publicly traded, closed-end, diversified management investment company, in a cash-and-stock transaction with an enterprise value of $2.6B.
Weave, customer experience and payments software platform tailored for SMB healthcare businesses that revolutionizes patient interaction from initial contact to billing, was acquired by Francisco Partners through a $650.0M public-to-private LBO. EV/Revenue was 2.52x. Jefferies and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
Range Resources (NYS: RRC), an exploration and production firm whose operations represent a pure play in the Marcellus shale, located in the Appalachian region of Southwest Pennsylvania, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by EQT Production Company (NYS: EQT) for $50.95B. EV/EBITDA was 32.79x and EV/Revenue was 15.59x. Evercore Group and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
Parameter, manufacturer of facility monitoring and detection equipment designed for data centers and critical infrastructure, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Acuity for $675.0M. Lincoln International advised on the sale.
NeoSpace AI, developer of a financial model technology platform designed for credit scoring and allocation processes in the finance industry, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Itaú Unibanco Holding for $589.0M. EV/Revenue was 10.33x.
Miro, developer of visual collaboration software intended to facilitate team collaboration and project planning, was acquired by Bending Spoons for $1.36B. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.
Logan Energy (TSX: LGN), engaged in the business of exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties and assets, focused on the Montney resource trend in the areas of Simonette and Pouce Coupe in northwest Alberta and in the Flatrock area of northeastern British Columbia, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Ovintiv (NYS: OVV) for CAD 1.0884456B. EV/EBITDA was 7.69x and EV/Revenue was 4.62x.
Iveco Group (MIL: IVG), engaged in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, and specialty vehicles for firefighting, defense, and other uses, as well as combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmissions, and axles, was acquired by Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (NSE: TMPV) for EUR 3.91B. EV/EBITDA was 3.87x and EV/Revenue was 0.28x. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.
Flightscape, developer of airline operations software designed to optimize operations control center performance, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by SITA for CAD 500.0M. BMO Capital Markets and Citigroup advised on the sale.
Classiq, developer of quantum computing software designed to automate the creation of optimized circuits, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Intel (NAS:INTC) for $2.3B.
Atlantic Lithium (LON: ALL), an exploration and development company focused on advancing lithium mining projects in West Africa, was acquired by Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (SHG: 603799) for $210.0M. EV/Cash Flow was 78.45x. Canaccord Genuity advised on the sale.
Gameto, operator of a biotechnology company intended to solve diseases of the female reproductive system, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Ferring, via its financial sponsor Blackstone Life Sciences, through an estimated $1.3825B LBO.
Utility Innovation Group, provider of energy services intended for shaping the future of electric grid infrastructure globally, was acquired by Vertiv for approximately $1.45B.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Bedrock Robotics, developer of autonomous systems designed for construction and heavy equipment operation, raised $600.0M of Series C venture funding in a deal led by CapitalG and Emergence Equity Management, putting the company's pre-money valuation at $3.5B.
Amogy, developer of ammonia-to-power systems designed to generate electricity for stationary, maritime, and industrial applications, raised $200.0M of Series C venture funding in a deal led by The Export-Import Bank of Korea.
ABA Life, developer of an integral health infrastructure designed to transform technology into measurable, and sustainable impact for humans, territories, and ecosystems, raised AED 400.0M of venture funding from Admaius Capital Partners.
Re:Build Manufacturing, manufacturer of industrial-grade equipment designed to enhance production efficiency and reduce downtime in manufacturing plants, raised $2.1B of venture funding in a deal led by General Catalyst and J.P. Morgan Chase.
Hex, developer of a collaborative data workspace platform intended to streamline the entire analytics workflow, raised $100.0M of venture funding in a deal lead by Peak XV Partners and 137 Ventures, putting the company's pre-money valuation at $1.2B.
General Compute, developer of an artificial intelligence inference cloud platform designed for autonomous software agents and developers, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding in a deal led by Blackbird Ventures and Abstract Ventures, putting the company's pre-money valuation at $700.0M.
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