Welcome back.
Well, we got Anthropic 3Q revenue numbers and it’s not good enough for a lot of Wall Street. $16.8B in 3Q revenue compared to the $70B ARR number floated in July suggests some August/Sept. decel due to open models, tokenmaxxing peaking, distillation, and OpenAI model improvements.
Anthropic is still marching towards a mid-November IPO, but is this going to be enough to support the $2T valuation goals? Early murmurs are certainly questioning it. There’s also been a lot of noise with the neoclouds (particularly CoreWeave) and our friends in South Korea are having another rough day in the market.
Btw, we published our State of AI in Finance report yesterday - check it out.
With inflation that surprised to the upside yesterday, no end in sight with the war, and this shakier Anthropic readthrough, the market is definitely on edge. Let’s get into it.
BDC Watchlist identifies $4.19bn of ‘at risk’ loans across more than 170 BDCs; over a third are in software
9fin’s latest BDC Watchlist identifies 118 credits whose weighted average fair value marks declined by five percentage points or more between Q1 and Q2 26. Together, these credits represent $4.19bn in fair value.
Just under 36% of the affected credits by fair value fall under Information Technology, which includes software. More than half have a maturity of 2029 or sooner.
The report uses 9fin’s new BDC Valuations Tool to examine which credits saw the biggest declines in aggregate marks, which BDCs hold them and which sponsors have the most names on the watchlist.
Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.
Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Charles Schwab, Bank Of New York Mellon, Prologis, PNC Financial Services, U.S. Bancorp, Interactive Brokers
Friday: HDFC Bank, M&T Bank, Citizens Financial, Truist, The Travelers Companies, Regions Financial
Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).
Thursday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Retail Sales (0.4%), Weekly Jobless Claims (202K), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (35), PPI (0.6%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI M/M% (0.3%), PPI Y/Y%, Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories (0.4%),
Friday: Import Prices (1.2%), Industrial Production M/M% (0.4%), Capacity Utilization % (76.5%)
Earnings Corner 💸
Big Bank Earnings Roundup: Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.06% ) , Citigroup $C ( ▼ 0.4% ) and Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▼ 0.87% ) beat on both the top and bottom lines, while JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 0.03% ) missed on both, Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▲ 0.8% ) beat EPS but missed revenue, and Bank of America $BAC ( ▼ 0.31% ) missed on an adjusted basis. Across the group, equities trading was a major bright spot while fixed income and deal activity softened as higher rates and market volatility weighed on capital markets. Goldman and Morgan Stanley stood out on strong equities results, while JPM was pressured by weaker FICC, higher expenses and a $658M securities loss. BofA was also hit by weaker trading and a $1.2B regulatory charge, while Citi and Wells showed resilient consumer and lending trends.
Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 2.08% ) Reported revenue roughly in line while EPS beat at $2.59 vs. $2.52. Results were helped by 7.7% growth in its pharmaceutical business, led by strong demand for newer drugs like Tremfya, while its medical devices business grew just 2.5% as weaker heart-pump sales, China pricing pressure and Middle East disruptions weighed on results. Mgmt. raised FY26 EPS guidance to $11.05–$11.15 and slightly increased its sales outlook.
UnitedHealth Group $UNH ( ▲ 3.62% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $112.69B and EPS of $4.69. Results were driven by better than expected medical cost control, with fewer costly hospital admissions and more care shifting to lower-cost settings, while both its insurance and Optum healthcare businesses beat profit estimates. Medical costs remain elevated, particularly from specialty drugs and out of network claims, but mgmt. raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50 from $19.50–$20.00 on improving cost trends.
BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 1.39% ) Beat on top and bottom lines with revenue of $7.75B vs. ~$7.4B and EPS of $15.93 vs. $14.15. Results were driven by strong net inflows across ETFs, fixed income and equities as investors continued putting money to work despite higher rates and market volatility, which helped lift fee revenue. Private markets inflows and performance fees also beat expectations, while AUM rose 15% YoY to a record $15.49T.
Domino’s $DPZ ( ▲ 2.32% ) Beat with revenue of $1.19B vs. $1.17B and EPS of $4.60 vs. $4.36. Results were helped by higher order volumes, supply-chain revenue and franchise royalties, but underlying demand remained soft as U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.3% and customers spent less per order amid a tougher consumer environment. Mgmt. trimmed its outlook, now expecting low-single-digit U.S. same-store sales growth and fewer new U.S. store openings.
ASML Holding $ASML ( ▼ 0.83% ) slightly missed on the top line but beat on EPS, with revenue of €11.66B, just below expectations despite reaching a record and landing near the high end of the company’s own guidance. Results were driven by strong demand for chipmaking equipment and productivity upgrades as customers continue expanding capacity for AI-related chips. Mgmt. raised FY26 sales guidance and now expects planned supply in 2027 and 2028 to fall short of demand, prompting further capacity expansion.
On The Move 📈 📉
CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 2.96% ) plunged after its bonds fell to distressed levels, with its unsecured debt due in 2032 trading below 80 cents on the dollar. CEO Mike Intrator said the market is acting “irrationally.”
Perella Weinberg $PWP ( ▲ 5.3% ) tumbled after merger talks with Piper Sandler collapsed over financial terms and resistance from its senior dealmakers.
Bending Spoons $BSP ( ▲ 8.16% ) soared after Berkshire Hathaway agreed to invest another $330mm in the company, raising its stake to 4%.
Space stocks had a rough day: Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 9.63% ) fell in after-hours trading after delaying the first launch of its Neutron rocket to 2027. AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▲ 2.52% ) slid as Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral with a $54 target, citing rising competition from SpaceX in satellite-to-phone service.
AI hardware stocks $DELL ( ▼ 7.34% ), $HPE ( ▼ 5.99% ), and $NTAP ( ▼ 2.64% ) slumped due to the AI bottleneck selloff and as Barclays downgraded all three to Equal Weight from Overweight, saying memory-driven price hikes have propped up revenue and it doesn’t “see a meaningful AI inflection yet.”
Liquidia $LQDA ( ▲ 1.95% ) surged after ending its legal battle with United Therapeutics. The settlement removes a major overhang for YUTREPIA, its pulmonary hypertension treatment.
IPO Roundup 📍
Anthropic’s Q3 revenue climbed to $16.8Bn from $11.5Bn in Q2. The company is now profitable on an “adjusted basis” and is trying to go public this fall around a $2Tn valuation.
General Atlantic is working toward an IPO in the first half of next year that could value it at up to $10Bn. The investment firm, which manages ~$130Bn in assets, is raising capital to keep pace with larger rivals.
AirTrunk, the Blackstone-backed data center operator, is delaying its ~$1.5Bn Singapore IPO until next year as higher interest rates cool investor demand.
Iambic Therapeutics raised $150mm in its IPO at $16 per share, the middle of its range, for a ~$758mm market value. The Nvidia-backed AI drug developer starts trading Thursday under the ticker $IAM.
Today’s Jobs:
Ares is hiring a Direct Lending Associate (NY & LA)
Deerpath Capital is hiring a Private Credit Senior Associate (Chicago)
Morgan Stanley is hiring various 2027 interns
Houlihan Lokey is hiring a Financial Sponsor Coverage Associate (NY)
Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
Inflation was a slight surprise, as consumer prices rose 3.7% due to gas prices moving higher. CPI m/m at +0.6% was in line but the 12-month rate of 3.7% compared to estimates of 3.6%. Stripping out food & energy, core CPI was 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y (est. of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively).
OpenAI staffer Abdulrahman Alfozan, a Saudi national and venture partner at Raed Ventures, is charged with secretly installing a recording device in an executive conference room.
A new report by Moody’s claims that Private Credit stress is masked by PIK. The default rate among 607 private borrowers was 4% as of LTM June 2026, but 5.8% when including PIK amendments and distressed A&Es. 17% of the 607 borrowers use PIK interest.
Alternative investment chiefs are sharply divided on the AI build-out:
Blue Owl’s Marc Lipschultz calls it a “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunity.
Vista’s Robert Smith says AI could lift some businesses from 30% margins to 60% or 70%.
Fortress’s Drew McKnight warns, “the equity captures the upside, while the credit has the downside.”
Monroe Capital’s Ted Koenig won’t touch data center deals, citing water, power, community, and political risk.
PIMCO sees “green shoots” in direct lending, but older loans are still a risk. New loans offer wider spreads, lower leverage, and bigger equity cushions. Legacy vintages from peak deployment years remain exposed to tighter spreads, higher leverage, and weaker protections.
New York Fed President John Williams sees one more rate hike this year as appropriate but currently sees no reason for more in 2027, citing signs that inflation will slow toward 2% next year.
Wall Street is ramping up its India bets as an IPO boom takes off. Blackstone expects its India AUM to double to $100Bn, while Brookfield plans to invest more than $100Bn there over the next five years.
More than half of UK CFOs expect AI to cut headcount at their companies over the next year, according to Deloitte. Only a third believe it will help increase margins in that time.
Netflix has laid off 1,000 employees, or 6% of its workforce. This comes shortly after a conference where $NFLX ( ▲ 2.74% ) CEO Ted Sarandos said the company was “not growing as fast as I want.”
Skydance’s bonds keep falling after its $110Bn Warner Bros. Discovery buyout. Investors are worried about the combined company’s profitability, sending its high yield notes to 91 cents on the dollar.
Chicago-based RIA platform VestGen Wealth Partners has received growth capital from Willow Tree Credit Partners and nFleXion Capital Partners to fund its M&A activity, having grown from 10 firms and $5.3Bn in assets at its December 2024 launch to 19 firms and $8.5Bn today.
McKinsey is adding an AI avatar that plays a client in some entry-level consulting interviews. Candidates hold a roughly 10-minute conversation with it while partners watch how they respond.
Reminder, we published our State of AI in Finance report yesterday - check it out.
M&A Transactions💭
Ithaca Holdings reached a definitive agreement to acquire Bumble (NAS: BMBL), a company engaged in offering online dating services, for $1.3B. EV/Revenue was 1.46x. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
Zhongfu Energy, manufacturer of electronic-grade specialty gases intended for semiconductor manufacturing and industrial applications, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Qingdao Guoen Technology (SHE: 002768) for CNY 1.5B. EV/Net Income was 17.1x and EV/Revenue was 3.34x.
Stop Market, operator of a supermarket chain intended for retail food shopping, was acquired by Shuk Hertzel for approximately $222.86M.
Xodus Medical, manufacturer of perioperative medical devices intended to enhance safety in surgical settings, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Steris (NYS: STE) for an estimate $2.25B. The company will receive a contingent payout of $150.0M based upon the achievement of specified post-closing performance targets in calendar 2028. EV/EBIT was 15.52x and EV/Revenue was 9.18x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
SageOne Investment Managers, provider of portfolio management and alternative investment fund services intended to serve high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and institutional investors, was acquired by ASK Asset & Wealth Management for approximately INR 17.5B.
Getty Images Holdings (OTCM: GETY), a visual content creator and marketplace that offers a full range of content solutions, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Koch Equity Development and other investors through a $533.0M public-to-private LBO. EV/EBITDA was 2.91x and EV/Revenue was 0.54x. Guggenheim Partners, Houlihan Lokey, and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.
ArcheNova Biotech, developer of a biopharmaceutical platform designed for the research and clinical translation of exosome-based therapies, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Public Company Horizon Space Acquisition I (OTCM: HSPOF) through a $2.0B reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
Tristar Transport, provider of liquid logistics services intended for the petroleum, chemical and petrochemical industries, both in the region and globally, has reached a definitive to be acquired by Aegis Logistics (BOM: 500003) for an estimated $1.35B. The transaction will value the company at $1.5B. deNovo PJT, PJT Partners, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
Roxmore Resources (TSE: RM), focused on developing its flagship, Converse Gold Project, a large, underdeveloped gold deposit, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by SSR Mining (TSE: SSRM) for an estimated CAD 663.123472M. EV/Cash Flow was 16.6x. ATB Cormark Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, and SCP Resource Finance advised on the sale.
Proscia, developer of a digital pathology platform designed to enhance cancer diagnosis, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Agilent Technologies (NYS:A) for $240.0M.
Paragon Films, manufacturer of cast stretch films intended for transit packaging distributors in the United States, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Atlantic Ridge Capital and Grafine Partners through an estimated $900.0M LBO. UBS Group and William Blair & Company advised on the sale.
Lotte Insurance (KRX: 000400), operates in the non-life insurance market, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Shinhan Financial Group (KRX: 055550) for KRW 693.3B. The transaction values the company at an estimated KRW 899.92B. EV/EBITDA was 3.35x and EV/Revenue was 0.39x.
Hughes Brothers Construction, provider of civil construction services intended for the development of industrial, commercial, residential, and municipal projects, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Cardinal Infrastructure Group (NAS: CDNL) for approximately $455.0M. The company will receive a contingent payout of $97.5M upon the completion of future performance terms. EV/Revenue was 2.07x.
Gammon, provider of engineering and construction services intended for infrastructure and building projects, was acquired by Jardine Matheson (SES: J36) for £250.0M.
AT&T Mexico, provider of wireless telecommunications and cellular services in Mexico, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Televisa and Fintech Holdings for $2.0B.
ZO Skin Health, manufacturer of skin care products intended to offer comprehensive skincare irrespective of an individual's age, ethnicity, or skin condition, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Galderma (SWX:GALD) for $1.5B. EV/Revenue was 4.55x. Citigroup and Raymond James advised on the sale.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Anduril, the defense tech startup, will let employees sell stock through a tender offer at a $90 Billion valuation.
Salience Labs, developer of optical networking technology designed to improve connectivity for artificial intelligence data center infrastructure, raised $125.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal led by Bullhound Capital.
Mosi-AI, developer of multimodal foundation software designed to enable real-time intelligent interaction, raised over CNY 1.0B of Pre-A venture funding in a deal led by Tsinghua Holdings Capital.
Infinigence, developer of an artificial intelligence infrastructure platform designed to advance model development and optimize heterogeneous computing resources, raised 2.3B yuan of Series C venture funding from undisclosed investor.
Fujian Fulian Integrated Circuit, manufacturer of a compound-semiconductor wafer business intended to support high-frequency and RF chip manufacturing, raised nearly 1.0B yuan of Series B venture funding in a deal led by Shenzhen Capital Group and Industrial Securities Investment.
Soufflé Therapeutics, developer of a targeted gene therapy intended to treat autoimmune diseases and cardiac diseases, raised $135.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal led by Juvia Group.
Mesa School of Business, provider of program-based business education services intended to help students develop market-relevant skills and deliver job outcomes, raised INR 1.1B of series A venture funding and venture debt led by Dharana Capital and Elevation Capital, putting the company's pre-money valuation at INR 2.75B.
ID Finance, developer of a credit scoring and digital financial platform designed to offer responsible and sustainable financial services, raised EUR 545.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity from Spice Expeditions, Ash Park Capital, and Washington University in St. Louis.
ICON, developer of construction technologies designed to build three-dimensional printed homes for communities in developing countries, raised $200.0M of Series D venture funding in a deal led by BlackRock and Baillie Gifford.
Astribot, manufacturers of AI-powered humanoid robots designed to perform complex household and service tasks with human-like dexterity and speed, raised CNY 1.0B of Series C venture funding in a deal led by TopoScend Capital, putting the company's post-money valuation at CNY 15.0B.
Noteworthy Chart 🧭
According to Ramp, “AI spend per employee spend rose in Sept for the top 1% of business spenders but remains below highs in July.
The top 1% of firms spent $9,568 per employee per month, down 3.1% from its July high of $9,873.”
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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s paid partner is 9fin.