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Welcome back!

We stayed up to watch the 2026 Midterms so you didn’t have to: U.S. voters resoundingly turned against the Republican government with a retaking of the House and Senate. Shockingly, the Democrats resoundingly won Texas! Obviously, voters have rejected the rise in inflation, particularly in dramatically increased oil prices.

We expect a lame duck presidency for the next couple of years, but the big thing to watch will be if there’s now severe AI data center pushback that hurts advancement. AI has been a massive driver in economic growth, so any material slowdown there would hit the market and economy hard. Secondly, let’s see if strikes on Iran resume given President Trump has floated escalation recently.

Futures are down, but prior selloffs from political changes have usually been temporary in nature.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: Toyota Motor, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Uber Technologies, CVS Health, McKesson, Datadog, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Expedia Group, SharkNinja, Kraft Heinz, e.l.f. Beauty, CAVA, Wayfair, Snap, Zillow Group, TKO Group Holdings, Dutch Bros, Reynolds Consumer Products, The New York Times Company, U-Haul, AMC Entertainment, Bumble, Beyond Meat, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Coherent, Figma, Blue Owl Capital, Emerson Electric, Allstate, MetLife

  • Thursday: Wendy's, BJ's Restaurants, Sweetgreen, Bob's Discount Furniture, Krispy Kreme, Advance Auto Parts, CarGurus, Shake Shack, Warby Parker, Steve Madden, ACM Research, USA Rare Earth, Planet Fitness, Moelis & Company, Lyft, Celsius Holdings, Wynn Resorts, Dropbox, Lincoln National, Quantinuum, DraftKings, Fidelity National Information Services, Texas Roadhouse, Tapestry, Ralph Lauren, Affirm, Kimberly-Clark, Live Nation Entertainment, Microchip Technology, Rockwell Automation, Cardinal Health, Airbnb, Monster Beverage, Sony Group, Canada Goose, Cloudflare, Compass, Hertz, Mattel, Cigna, Six Flags Entertainment, Papa John's.

  • Friday: Berkshire Hathaway, Moderna, Honda Motor, Humana, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge, Vistra, Charter Communications, Under Armour, Utz Brands, Bloomin' Brands

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: ADP National Employment Report, U.S. Trade Balance (-107.8B), US Services PMI, ISM Report On Business Services PMI (54.6)

  • Thursday: Preliminary Productivity and Costs (2.5%), Weekly Jobless Claims (198K)

  • Friday: Employment Report (55K), Unemployment Rate (4.2%), Avg Hourly Earnings M/M% (0.3%), Avg Hourly Earnings Y/Y%, U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (47.2), Consumer Credit (11.5B)

Earnings Corner 💸

  • Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.9% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $114.48B vs. $113.46B expected and EPS of $2.10 vs. $2.00. Results were driven by strong iPhone and Mac sales, with iPhone revenue up 17% YoY to a September-quarter record and Mac revenue up 24% YoY, though China and services revenue missed expectations. Mgmt. guided holiday-quarter revenue growth of 7%–10%, above estimates, but gross margins are forecasted weaker then expected as rising memory costs driven by AI demand and supply constraints pressure profitability.

  • Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 1.65% ) Beat on revenue at $2.31B vs. $2.18B expected and EPS at $0.44 vs. $0.41. Revenue surged 96% YoY as businesses rapidly adopted its AI software, pushing U.S. commercial revenue above government revenue for the first time. However, U.S. commercial contract value growth slowed sharply to 11% YoY from 153% in Q2, partly due to shorter contract durations, raising concerns about the sustainability of future growth. Mgmt. raised FY revenue and free cash flow guidance, reflecting continued confidence in AI demand.

  • Marriott $MAR ( ▲ 0.02% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue of $7.01B vs. $6.93B. Results were driven by resilient travel demand, particularly from luxury and business travelers, as higher room rates and occupancy boosted growth despite affordability concerns. Luxury room revenue rose 12%, while strength in the U.S. and Canada offset weaker Middle East performance amid ongoing tensions. Mgmt. raised FY revenue per available room growth guidance reflecting stronger than expected travel demand.

  • On Semiconductor $ON ( ▲ 3.55% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue of $1.72B vs. $1.71B. Results were driven by surging AI data center demand, with segment revenue up 175% YoY, while stronger sales of higher-margin chips and improved manufacturing efficiency boosted profitability. Automotive sales remained soft as chip supply was redirected toward faster-growing AI and industrial markets. Mgmt. expects AI data-center revenue to double again in 2027 and raised its 2030 target to $3B+, supported by its planned $600M acquisition of Ferric.

  • AMD $AMD ( ▲ 3.65% ) jumped following a revenue and earnings beat that showed data center revenue nearly doubling. CEO Lisa Su noted “Adoption is just starting, and we expect demand to grow sharply as agents are deployed more broadly and take on more complex work.”

  • Pfizer $PFE ( ▼ 2.19% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue of $16.58B. Sales of newer and acquired drugs grew 32%, led by treatments including blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Padcev, helping offset declining COVID-related revenue, while ongoing cost cuts supported profitability. Mgmt. raised guidance, reflecting stronger performance across its non-COVID business.

  • Ferrari $RACE ( ▲ 2.9% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue of €1.90B vs. €1.89B. Stronger sales of higher margin models and increased customer spending on vehicle personalization boosted profitability despite fewer shipments, with orders extending into 2028. Mgmt. raised FY revenue guidance and adjusted EPS guidance.

  • Apollo Global Management $APO ( ▼ 4.95% ) missed on revenue and EPS, as higher expenses weighed on profitability. The firm reported a $1.06B net loss, driven by unrealized investment losses in its retirement services business as higher interest rates reduced asset valuations. Despite the loss, assets under management grew 18% YoY, supported by strong inflows and record quarterly investment origination of $114B, while management fees rose 18%.

  • Shopify $SHOP ( ▼ 8.74% ) narrowly missed on revenue at $3.74B vs. $3.75B expected, but beat on EPS. Revenue grew 32% YoY on strong merchant activity, though merchandise sales through its platform and subscription revenue both fell short of expectations, raising concerns about whether its rapid growth can continue. Mgmt. guided Q4 revenue growth in the low-30% range as it continues expanding its AI-powered shopping capabilities.

On The Move 📈 📉

  • Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 5.85% ) lifted a day after sliding nearly 9% when the company filed to sell $10Bn of stock and $10Bn of bonds to fund its AI buildout. The single-day raise covers all the capital it said last week it would need through fiscal 2030.

  • Fiserv $FISV ( ▲ 12.46% ) soared after its Financial Solutions segment returned to organic growth and the company raised its savings target to $1Bn, while also taking a $6.45Bn goodwill writedown.

  • Gartner $IT ( ▼ 13.19% ) sank despite beating Q3 estimates and raising its full-year revenue guidance. Management warned of geopolitical risks and longer sales cycles.

  • Unilever $UL ( ▼ 2.45% ) dipped as it announced a €1Bn savings plan to streamline operations after merging its food business with McCormick.

  • CVS $CVS ( ▲ 3.28% ) jumped after hours on a report that it’s discussing plans to spin off its retail pharmacy business.

  • Fox $FOXA ( ▲ 6.92% ) and Roku $ROKU ( ▲ 3.11% ) rose after both topped quarterly estimates, as Roku’s results support the valuation in Fox’s pending $22Bn acquisition.

  • Aehr Test Systems $AEHR ( ▲ 26.5% ) surged after blowing past fiscal Q1 estimates and lining up a major AI chip supplier for a potential high-volume order.

IPO Roundup 📍

  • China’s securities regulator told banks to pause IPOs and large share sales to support its struggling stock market. The CSI 300 fell 8.5% in October, its worst month in more than a decade.

  • Big IPO investors are pushing Anthropic toward a $1.5-1.6Tn valuation after last week’s tech selloff. Its roadshow could start as soon as next week.

  • ElevenLabs could start preparing for an IPO in 2028, CEO Mati Staniszewski said. The AI voice startup was recently valued at $22Bn in a $300mm employee tender offer, double its valuation from February.

  • Kunlunxin, Baidu’s AI chip unit, may push its $2Bn Hong Kong IPO to 2027 while it waits for approval from China’s securities regulator. Baidu dismissed the report as “market rumors.”

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

M&A Transactions💭

Global Security Experts (TKS: 4417), operates a cybersecurity business that provides one-stop support for cybersecurity measures, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Accenture Japan for JPY 108.0B. EV/EBITDA was 33.03x and EV/Revenue was 8.82x.

Evergrande Property Services Group (HKG: 06666), an investment holding company engaged in the provision of property management services, community living services, asset management services, and community operation services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by PAG through an HKD 4.03B LBO. EV/EBITDA was 6.83x and EV/Revenue was 0.5x. CITIC Securities and UBS Group advised on the sale.

Crowne Plaza Changi Airport, operator of an airport hotel intended to provide hospitality and event services, was acquired by OUE (SES: LJ3) and Tokyo Century (TKS: 8439), a subsidiary of Itochu (TKS: 8001), through a SGD 500.0M LBO.

Lovehoney Group, manufacturer of pleasure products and accessories intended for sexual wellness, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by TDR Capital through an estimated EUR 400.0M. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

Perion Network (TAE: PERI), a technology company. It offers online advertising and search solutions to brands, agencies, and publishers through desktop, mobile, and social channels, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Affle 3i for approximately $419.99999M. EV/Revenue was 0.96x. Canaccord Genuity advised on the sale.

First Reliance Bank (OTCM: FSRL), operates as a South Carolina-chartered commercial bank providing banking services across domestic markets in South Carolina, was acquired by Colony Bank (NYS: CBAN) for $242.78445M. EV/Net Income was 20.39x and EV/Revenue was 4.86x. Hovde Group advised on the sale.

The U.S. Pump Business of Trillium Flow Technologies was acquired by Crane (NYS: CR) for an estimated $240.0M. EV/Revenue was 2.09x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

The Dahl Businesses in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark of Saint-Gobain were acquired by Kesko (HEL: KESKOA) for EUR 1.518B. Citigroup advised on the sale.

PurposeMed, operator of growth telehealth brands designed to improve access to complex care for underserved communities worldwide, was acquired by Grindr (NYS: GRND) for $250.0M. EV/EBITDA was 25.0x and EV/Revenue was 3.13x.

PCI Energy Solutions, developer of energy management and optimization software designed for energy, marketing, and trading companies, was acquired by Mitsubishi Electric (TKS: 6503) for $1.4B.

Northern Regional Hospital, operator of a regional hospital intended to provide medical care and clinical services, was acquired by Novant Health for approximately $230.0M.

LXP Industrial Trust, a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of equity and debt investments in single-tenant properties and land throughout the United States, was acquired by Brookfield Asset Management (TSE: BAM) and CPP Investments through a $6.47B public-to-private transaction. EV/EBITDA was 17.41x and EV/Revenue was 18.41x. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Lumentum Holdings (NAS: LITE), a US-based photonics company specializing in light-based communications technologies, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Marvell Technology (NAS: MRVL) for $68.317488B. EV/Revenue was 27.24x. Citigroup, Evercore Group, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

LiveRamp Holdings, a technology company that empowers marketers and media owners to deliver and measure marketing performance everywhere it matters, was acquired by Publicis Groupe (PAR: PUB) for $2.430B. EV/EBITDA was 22.11x and EV/Revenue was 2.92x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Liberis, provider of embedding revenue-based financing services intended for small and medium enterprises, was acquired by Qred, via its financial sponsor Nordic Capital, through a GBP 600.0M LBO.

Lazard CL, provider of private capital advisory services intended to connect capital formation and liquidity solutions, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Lazard (NYS: LAZ) for $575.0M.

Lava, developer of a real-time customer engagement platform designed to help businesses deliver personalized experiences and improve customer retention, was acquired by Bilt Technologies for $300.0M.

Kenvue, the world's largest pure-play consumer health company by sales, generating over $15.0B in annual revenue, was acquired by Kimberly-Clark (NAS: KMB) for $48.7B. EV/EBITDA was 15.0x and EV/Revenue was 3.14x. Centerview Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Indivior, a specialty pharmaceutical company singularly focused on delivering evidence-based treatment and advancing understanding of opioid use disorder (OUD) as a chronic but treatable brain disease, was acquired by Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NAS: SUPN) for $2.2B. EV/EBIDTA was 3.98x and EV/Revenue was 1.6x. Citigroup, Jefferies, and Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

The Hotel Operating Business of Dalata Hotel Group (OTCM: DLTTF) was acquired by Scandic Hotels Group (STO: SHOT) for EUR 500.0M.

Bruton, a holding company focused on investing in the energy and transportation industries, was acquired by International Seaways (NYS: INSW) for $370.0M. EV/Cash Flow was 45.58x. Morgan Stanley and Pareto Securities advised on the sale.

Garanti BBVA Romania, provider of banking and financial services to its clients in Bucharest, Romania, was acquired by Raiffeisen Bank, a subsidiary of Raiffeisen Bank International, for EUR 571.0M.

Blue Moon Norway, operator of mining and exploration assets intended for the critical metals sector in Norway, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by ACG Metals (LON:ACG) for $220.0M. Canaccord Genuity advised on the sale.

Estia Health, provider of residential aged care services intended to enrich and celebrate life together, was acquired by Stonepeak Partners and Axight Capital Limited through $2.0B LBO.

Thorne Research, manufacturer of dietary supplements intended for health-care professionals, and athletes, was acquired by Procter & Gamble for $3.8B. EV/Revenue was 5.85x. Canaccord Genuity and Perella Weinberg Partners advised on the sale.

TailorMed Medical, developer of a medical financial management platform designed for chronically ill patients to streamline their finances, was acquired by GrowthCurve Capital through a $250.0M LBO. Leerink Partners and TripleTree advised on the sale.

Pilot Water Solutions, operator of midstream infrastructure intended for water management in energy production, was acquired by Select Water Solutions (NYS: WTTR) for $715.0M. The company will receive a $15.0M contingent payment, payable upon the satisfaction of certain operational milestones expected in early 2027. Under the terms of the transaction, a subsidiary of Select acquired Pilot Water on a debt-free basis for aggregate consideration of approximately $700.0M, including approximately $600.0M of cash paid at closing (subject to customary post-closing adjustments) and 5,149,331 shares of Class A common stock of Select. EV/EBITDA was 6.5x.

Leopalace21, has two core businesses: Construction, which builds apartment buildings, and Leasing, which rents and manages units in the apartments that the company builds, was acquired by Hikari Tsushin, MBK Partners and NEC Capital Solutions through an estimated JPY 267.6B public-to-private LBO. EV/EBIT was 7.22x and EV/Revenue was 0.58x. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities advised on the sale.

Ferric, manufacturer of integrated voltage regulators designed for high-performance computing systems, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by ON Semiconductor (NAS:ON) for $600.0M. UBS Group advised on the sale.

CBIZ, through its subsidiaries provides professional services advisors to middle-market businesses and organizations nationwide, was acquired by Grant Thornton, via its financial sponsors, Ottawa Avenue Private Capital, New Mountain Capital, and La Caisse, through an estimated $2.99B public-to-private LBO. EV/EBITDA was 8.0x and EV/Revenue was 1.08x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

AerFin, provider of aviation asset management and maintenance services intended for the global aerospace industry, was acquired by ORIX Aviation Systems, through a $637.72M LBO. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

The Master Trust Business division of Chrysalis Investments, was acquired by The People's Pension through a GBP 850.0M LBO.

The Ground Station Business of Speedcast, was acquired by SatPort Infrastructure, via its financial sponsor EQT, through an estimated $300.0M LBO. Guggenheim Partners advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

CoreLink Power, manufacturer of automotive-grade semiconductors designed for power conversion efficiency, raised nearly CNY 2.0B of Series C venture funding in a deal led by China Mobile (SHG:600941).

Northwood Space, developer of an ultra-wideband gateway technology designed to expand access to space by transforming satellite backhaul infrastructure, raised $375.0M of Series C venture funding in a deal led by Andreessen Horowitz and DFJ Growth.

Hypersonica, developer of hypersonic systems designed for defense and aerospace applications, raised EUR 100.0M of Series B funding in a deal led by Lightspeed and General Catalyst.

social.plus, developer of an online social platform designed to help organizations, teams, and individuals improve productivity, raised an estimated $100.0M of Series D venture funding in a deal led by EDBI.

Moffett AI, manufacturer of artificial intelligence chips designed for sparse computing workloads, raised nearly CNY 1.0B of Series D venture funding from Zhongcai Capital, Renai Capital and Zhejiang Biqiu Private Equity Fund Management.

Lightyears Solar, developer of utility-scale solar farms intended to allow continued agricultural use of the land through agrivoltaic tools, raised $174.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. The transaction was supported by $100.0M of debt financing. The equity funding of $74.0M was provided by Obayashi.

Abundance, developer of an artificial intelligence-driven hedge fund designed to automate capital allocation, raised $100.0M of Seed funding from undisclosed investors.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Kalshi’s parlay bettors have lost over $1Bn in about a year. Total multi-leg volume reached $165.6Bn since the feature launched in September 2025.

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