What You Need to Know For November 20th

Welcome back. Well Nvidia just had some lights out numbers and a solid guide, showing demand for GPUs remains robust, even as some hyperscalers continue to falter. More on that below.

Btw, we just published a piece on Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF ( ▲ 3.04% ) in the WSR Investing Club - check it out here and take advantage of our extremely discounted Cyber Monday deal.

Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.97% ) Top and bottom line beat, with revenue coming in at $57.01B, well above expectations, and EPS at $1.30. Data center revenue jumped 66% as Blackwell demand remained “off the charts”, easing fears of an AI slowdown and reinforcing Nvidia’s dominance. The company guided towards $65B in revenue next quarter, a beat of buyside & sell-side estimates, with management saying AI adoption is still in the “early innings” and orders already surpassing its multi year target.

Home Depot $HD ( ▲ 3.29% ) & Lowes  $LOW ( ▲ 2.57% ) Lowe’s beat on Q3 earnings while Home Depot missed again, underscoring diverging momentum in home improvement. Lowe’s saw steadier Pro demand and early seasonal strength. Home Depot faced weak big ticket spending and softer housing turnover. Lowe’s raised it’s revenue outlook, while Home Depot cut profit guidance, sending Lowe’s higher and Home Depot lower.

Target $TGT ( ▲ 4.71% ) Missed on revenue while EPS beat as comps fell 2.7%. Traffic softened with consumers prioritizing essentials over discretionary categories. The company trimmed the top end of full year guidance but kept holiday expectations unchanged. Target has remained a retail laggard, with weak traffic and immense competition from the largest players (Wal-Mart, Costco, Amazon) and then price retailers like TJX. The Target turnaround story feels a while off, and CEO Brian Cornell will be stepping down Feb 1, 2026, with Target’s COO taking his place

Klarna $KLARNA.P ( 0.0% ) beat on revenue as U.S. adoption of its Klarna Card and fair financing products drove strong GMV growth, but shares fell in its first post IPO report as the widening loss underscored the credit risk and investment intensity behind its expansion.

TJX $TJX ( ▲ 2.27% ) beat expectations as strong off price traffic, closeout deals and a “strong start” to holiday shopping drove a 5% comps jump, even as near term guidance came in soft.

Palo Alto $PANW ( ▼ 1.17% ) delivered a slight beat but guidance came in soft as its $3.35B Chronosphere acquisition and shift toward RPO focused growth tempered sentiment despite steady cloud security momentum.

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Nvidia Warns Its $100B OpenAI Deal Isn’t Guaranteed: Nvidia cautioned in its latest quarterly filing that there’s “no assurance” it will finalize its massive investment agreement with OpenAI, despite the high-profile announcement in September. The disclosure underscores that no binding contract exists yet for the multiyear supercomputing buildout, even as Nvidia continues investing heavily in AI partners like Intel and Anthropic

• No Toymakers to the King: Toymakers are in for a rough holiday season, with MGA Entertainment, one of the largest privately-held toy companies thinking smaller companies will be forced out of business. Meanwhile, Mattel and Hasbro have already seen more than 4 points of margin degradation, per their latest earnings report

• Trump Signs Bill Requiring Epstein File Release: President Trump approved legislation compelling the Justice Department to release unclassified Jeffrey Epstein documents within 30 days, after a bipartisan revolt in Congress forced the bill to a vote. The files include flight logs, memos, communications and immunity agreements

• Google CEO Warns No Company Is Safe if the AI Bubble Pops: Sundar Pichai advised that soaring AI valuations carry “elements of irrationality,” and if the boom collapses, no firm, including Google, will be immune. While Google believes it could weather a downturn, Pichai acknowledged bubble risks similar to the dot-com era as markets grow wary of overheated AI bets

• Oracle Shares Plunge as AI Spending Fears Mount: Oracle has erased the more than 30% surge it enjoyed in September after revealing a $317B backlog tied largely to OpenAI, marking the first time in its public history that such gains have fully reversed. Investors are increasingly alarmed by the scale of capital Oracle must deploy to support AI customers, pushing its total debt above $100B following a recent $18B bond sale

• A tough decision for the Fed: Governor Christopher Waller supports a December cut, saying that he is more worried about the job market than rising inflation. Waller says the decline in payroll growth is due to both weaker demand and weaker supply for workers, and that a cut would provide insurance against additional declines in the labor market

  • Vice chair Philip Jefferson agrees that downside risks to employment have increased compared to upside risks in inflation, and thinks that current inflation is just a one-time increase in prices, rather than an ongoing problem. Jefferson says the bank needs to “proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.” Odds of a December cut currently sit at 31% on Kalshi

• Blue Owl Scraps Fund Merger After Investor-Impact Concerns Spark Stock Drop: The firm has canceled its plan to merge its publicly traded OBDC fund with the non-traded OBDC II after investor pushback. The deal would have locked OBDC II investors into the fund until closing and likely forced them to take paper losses because OBDC trades below NAV. Blue Owl said its previously announced $200M OBDC share-buyback program will continue

• Klarna strikes $6.5B loan deal: The buy-now-pay-later company has tapped Elliott Investment Management to secure funds for its continued expansion in the U.S. The facility is sized at $1B, but as loans are repaid new ones will be added under a forward flow agreement up to $6.5B over a two-year period

• Cloudflare outage: The internet infrastructure company has resolved an issue that led to an outage early Tuesday. Cloudfare says a configuration file was the root cause, and that there was no attack or malicious activity behind the outage

• Meta wins FTC antitrust trial over Instagram and WhatsApp: A federal judge ruled that Meta hasn’t violated U.S. antitrust law, and won’t be forced to spin off any of its businesses

• Americans’ Savings Are Fueling a Private Equity NAV-Loan Boom:
  Insurers tied to firms like Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and Carlyle are now some of the biggest funders of NAV loans. Outstanding NAV loans total roughly $225B and could double within two years, with insurers using Americans’ retirement and annuity savings to chase higher yields in hard-to-sell private assets

• Private Equity is paywalling youth hockey: Black Bear Sports Group, backed by PE Sponsor Blackstreet Capital, is reportedly banning parents from taking photos/videos at games and is instead asking parents to pay for photos. This has been highlighted as another example of PE’s continued involvement in making youth sports more costly

• Paramount has denied a Variety report saying it was assembling support from Arab sovereign wealth funds for its reported $71B bid for Warner Bros Discovery. Anonymous sources had reported that Saudi Arabia’s PIF, the Qatar Investment Authority, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority were all expected to join the Ellison family’s bid

  • Meanwhile, Netflix has promised to continue theatrical releases if they succeed in acquiring Warner Bros Discovery

• Consulting’s New Requirement: AI Becomes Core Skill for MBAs:
  Consulting firms Bain and McKinsey are now treating AI proficiency as a baseline skill much like Excel a decade ago

• Sinclair is going after Scripps: Sinclair, the second-largest U.S. broadcaster, disclosed an 8.2% stake in Scripps on Monday and is in ongoing talks about a potential acquisition. Scripps has told staff that a Sinclair takeover isn’t a done deal, but broadcasters look largely set to merge, with Nexstar pushing to complete their takeover of TEGNA

• Harvard is all-in on Bitcoin: Harvard Management Company’s $IBIT ( ▼ 2.02% ) position is now 21% of their portfolio, making it the University’s largest publicly disclosed U.S. equity holding. HMC also doubled its position in SPDR Gold Trust ETF, and made sizable investments into Klarna and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment

• Larry Summers resigns from the OpenAI board following Epstein ties: Summers says he is “deeply ashamed,” but will continue to teach at Harvard while the school launches an investigation into his relationship with Epstein

• Baby Shark IPO: Pinkfong, the South Korean company behind the viral Baby Shark video, had a solid trading debut with shares surging over 60% on Tuesday

M&A Transactions💭 

Thameside West Development, a 47-acre waterfront mixed use development project, was acquired by Arada Developments for GBP 2.0B. The transaction values the asset at GBP 2.5B.

The Materials Analysis Business of Semilab was acquired by Onto Innovation (NYS: ONTO) for $495.0M. Needham advised on the sale.

Sealed Air (NYS: SEE), a food packaging and sealed packaging company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $10.47B by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice. EV/EBITDA was 11.33x and EV/Revenue was 1.96x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Pike Corp, provider of energy infrastructure services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.0B by Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec, Lindsay Goldberg, TPG, Mr. Eric Pike, Mr. James Wyche, and other existing investors. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Panasonic Housing Solutions, manufacturer of housing equipment and construction materials, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 227.6B by YKK Corporation.

OmniMax International, manufacturer of residential building products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.335B by Gibraltar Industries (NAS: ROCK). EV/EBITDA was 12.14x and EV/Revenue was 2.36x. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

LocusView, developer of digital construction management platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $525.0M by Itron (NAS: ITRI).

Halda Therapeutics, developer of a drug discovery platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.05B by Johnson & Johnson (NYS: JNJ). Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Topgolf, operator of a sports entertainment company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for 1.16B by Leonard Green & Partners. Centerview Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Sentrycs, manufacturer of autonomous counter-drone system, was acquired for $225.0M by Ondas Holdings (NAS: ONDS). William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

Less Common Metals, manufacturer of complex alloys, was acquired for $225.0M by USA Rare Earth (NAS: USAR).

Informatica, provides AI enabled data management products, was acquired for $8.0B by Salesforce (NYS: CRM). EV/EBITDA was 29.64x and EV/Revenue was 4.77x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Elektrofi, developer of a drug delivery platform, was acquired for $900.0M by Halozyme Therapeutics (NAS: HALO). Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Dream Residential, a Canada based open-ended real estate investment trust, was acquired for $354.0M by Morgan Properties. EV/Revenue was 7.27x. TD Securities advised on the sale.

Aurus, manufacturer of luxury cars, was acquired for RUB 13.0B by Gazprom (MISX: GAZP).

Power Solutions, provider of electrical contracting services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.95B by Dycom Industries (NYS: DY).

LesserEvil, producer of organic and sustainable snacks, was acquired for $750.0M by The Hershey (NYS: HSY). Jefferies advised on the sale.

Companhia de Participacoes em Concessoes, portfolio of airports and urban mobility assets, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for BRL 5.0B by Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (MEX: ASURB). Lazard, Goldman Sachs, Banco BTG Pactual, and Itau Unibanco Holding advised on the sale.

Lence, a subsidiary of Wilmar International (SES: F34), acquired 13% of AWL Agri Business (BOM: 543458) for INR 46.5B. After the transaction, Lence owns 56.94% of the company. EV/EBITDA was 16.05x and EV/Revenue was 0.5x.

Adobe (NAS: ADBE) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SEMrush (NYS: SEMR), an online visibility management software, for $12.0 per share, representing a total equity value of approximately $1.9B. EV/EBITDA was 259.21x and EV/Revenue was 4.43x.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Solve Therapeutics, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by Yosemite.

Semisic, manufacturer of 3rd generation semiconductor material, raised CNY 800.0M of venture funding from National Military Civilian Integration Industry Investment Fund and Jianxin Financial Asset investment.

Sakana AI, operator of an AI driven information technology company, raised $135.0M of Series B venture funding from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Shikoku Electric Power, and Geodesic Capital.

Ramp, developer of a spend-management platform, raised $514.09M of Series E2 venture funding led by ICONIQ Capital and Lightspeed Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $31.49B. $300.0M of which was a primary financing round and an employee tender offer.

Celero, developer of coherent digital signal processor technology, raised $140.0M of Series B venture funding led by CapitalG and Sutter Hill Ventures.

Artios, developer of novel cancer treatments, raised $115.0M of Series D venture funding led by SV Health Investors and RA Capital Management.

Ursa Major, manufacturer of turnkey propulsion, raised $150.0M of Series E venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $500.0M. The equity portion of $100.0M was led by Eclipse Ventures.

Project Prometheus, developer of AI tools, raised $6.2B of venture funding from Jeffrey Bezos and other undisclosed investors.

Lambda, developer of a cloud computing platform, raised $1.5B of Series E venture funding led by TWG Global.

Kraken, developer of a trading platform, raised $800.0M of venture funding led by Jane Street, Oppenheimer Partners, and Tribe Capital at a pre-money valuation of $12.0B.

Federato, developer of an underwriter workflow software, raised $100.0M of Series D venture funding led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity.

Distalmotion, developer of a surgical robotic technology, raised $150.0M of Series G venture funding led by Revival Healthcare Capital.

Anthropic, developer of a LLM platform, raised $13.0B of Series F venture funding led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, ICONIQ Capital, and Fidelity Management & Research at a pre-money valuation of $170.0B.

RapidSOS, developer of an emergency technology platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Apax Partners at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Profluent, developer of AI driven models, raised $106.0M of venture funding led by Altimeter Capital Management and Bezos Expeditions.

Lohum Cleantech, operator of a battery, raised INR 13.14B of venture led by Growth I9 Opportunity LLP.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 35% chance of OKC repeating.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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