What You Need To Know for November 13th

Welcome back! The Dow and S&P have had a nice week, while the Nasdaq has been sluggish as some money has rotated out of AI into broader economy plays. Most importantly, President Trump has signed a bill finally ending the government shutdown after 43 days of chaos.

Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Coreweave $CRWV ( ▼ 3.35% ) Revenue came in at $1.36B vs. $1.5B, missing expectations as data center delays slowed deployment. EPS also came in below estimates, with management citing setbacks at a third party provider reportedly tied to Core Scientific, underscoring bottlenecks in AI-infrastructure build outs. The company raised its revolving credit facility to $2.5B to fund expansion and reinforce its position in the AI cloud market.

Nebius $NBIS ( ▼ 7.69% ) Both top and bottom line missed expectations as accounting changes and higher data center costs weighed on results. The company announced a $3B five year AI deal with Meta following a $19B Microsoft contract, but shares slid after it unveiled a 25M share equity raise to fund new data center buildouts.

AMD $AMD ( ▲ 9.0% ) accelerating revenue growth forecast fueled optimism that booming AI chip demand could triple earnings within five years, with data center revenue expected to jump 60% over the next 3-5 years

Rigetti $RGTI ( ▼ 9.87% ) Reported a wider loss as it ramps up spending to build a 1,000-qubit quantum computer, with new contracts showing progress but profitability is years away.

AST Spacemobile $ASTS ( ▼ 5.01% ) Advanced plans to launch its space backed mobile broadband rollout, locking in $1B in partner commitments with Verizon and Saudi Telecom as it prepares for a 60 satellite launch next year, even as near term losses widened.

Cisco $CSCO ( ▲ 3.14% ) reported better than expected numbers and guidance, with most of the growth coming from AI infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers. Funny enough, Cisco is FINALLY breaking even on their Dot Com bubble era highs.

Circle $CRCL ( ▼ 12.21% ) Delivered strong results that underscored surging stablecoin demand, but its outlook for higher spending and thinner margins tempered investor enthusiasm.

On Holding $ONON ( ▲ 17.99% ) raised its annual earnings guidance for the third straight quarter as double digit sales growth and full price strength underscored its premium edge in a discount driven sneaker market.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club. One of our recent writeups, $XPEL ( ▲ 2.92% ) is up over 18% over the past month. Access that report and more below.

Knowledge Gaps = Security Gaps

AI is moving faster than security teams can keep up—59% say AI risks outpace their expertise.

This is according to Vanta’s new State of Trust report, which surveyed 3,500 business and IT leaders across the globe.

Download the report to learn how organizations are navigating this gap, and what early adopters are doing to stay ahead.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• The government is reopened: The House approved the government-reopening spending bill in a 222 to 209 vote. Six Democrats backed it, while two Republicans opposed it. The measure went to President Trump for his signature, and he signed it last night! Democratic senators voted against the bill because it didn’t extend enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits; while Republicans then agreed to give Democrats a December vote on a separate bill to renew those subsidies before they expire.

  • Meanwhile, Press Secretary Leavitt claimed that October CPI and jobs data may never be released. The BLS has been largely idle during the duration of this shutdown

• Trump’s $2k tariff checks sounds like it’s for those making $100k: Bessent revealed in a Fox interview that it sounds like this is for families making less than $100k, but the limit hasn’t been set quite yet. On Sunday, Trump initially teased that the dividend was for everyone excluding “high income people”

• Michael Burry warns of ‘AI accounting fraud’: The Big Short investor took aim at Oracle and Meta, saying they’re “understating depreciation” by extending GPU lifespans — a move he called “one of the more common frauds of the modern era.” Burry argues firms are juicing earnings by spreading costs over too many years as AI capex explodes. Fellow short-seller Jim Chanos echoed the concern, noting CoreWeave would be “barely profitable” even assuming a 10-year GPU life

• Yann LeCun leaves Meta to launch AI startup: Zuck’s chief AI scientist and Turing Award winner plans to leave after more than a decade leading Meta’s FAIR lab to start his own company focused on developing AI systems designed to understand the physical world rather than language.

  • LeCun has openly disagreed with Zuck’s belief that LLMs can achieve human-like reasoning. LeCun’s departure follows other senior exits, layoffs, and reshuffles across Meta’s AI divisions amid a high-stakes bid to catch up with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic

• Anthropic to spend $50B to build AI data centers across Texas and NY: This will create 800 permanent jobs and 2k+ construction jobs.

• Masa sells his $5.8B NVIDIA stake. While this is a relatively small part of Softbank’s portfolio, the proceeds will be redirected towards other commitments, such as Masa’s $22.5B OpenAI commitment.

• HY Data Center Deal: Applied Digital’s data center construction focused high-yield bond is a test for AI appetite in the leveraged finance markets. Applied Digital is heavily reliant on CoreWeave as a tenant, but it still looks like the deal is going to get done today. Talk is in the mid 8% range.

• BlackRock faces full loss on Renovo Home Partners: BlackRock marked its $150M private loan to home renovator down from full value to zero after the company abruptly filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. The Dallas-based roll-up, formed by Audax Group in 2022, had already undergone a debt-for-equity swap and payment deferrals earlier this year, but liquidity collapsed in Q4

  • The sudden wipeout underscores growing concerns that private credit valuations are disconnected from reality, echoing recent failures like Zips Car Wash, Tricolor Holdings, and First Brands

• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic to retire in February: Raphael Bostic, the first Black and openly gay Fed regional president, will step down when his term ends in February after eight years leading the Atlanta Fed. Bostic has warned inflation remains “a significant problem,” with prices still near 3%, and has voiced discomfort as policy nears neutral

• Neuberger Berman closes $7.3B private credit fund: The firm wrapped fundraising for its fifth private debt vehicle, NB Private Debt V, which will focus on senior secured, first-lien loans to PE-backed middle-market companies across North America follows its $8.1B predecessor fund raised in 2022

• Tariffs crimp Black Friday discounts: Retailers from Coach to Therabody are scaling back promotions this holiday season as tariffs and inflation drive up costs. Brands that once offered 10–20% markdowns last year are now keeping prices flat — with import duties making items like copper kitchenware jump from $20 to $30. “It doesn’t make financial sense to discount,” said Upstream Brands’ CEO, citing squeezed margins and cash-strapped shoppers

• Private equity finds new exit tricks as IPOs stall: With IPO markets reopening only halfway, firms are turning to creative ways to cash out. Hellman & Friedman pulled off a novel move with security firm Verisure, selling part of its stake via IPO while raising €1B through a payment-in-kind loan from a holding company, avoiding leverage on Verisure’s own balance sheet

• Vista Equity Partners looks like its the first Private Equity firm planning significant AI-related workforce cuts in the coming years. The Sponsor is reportedly planning on mainly targeting operations, IR, and junior analyst positions over time. We think this is probably a Vista specific thing vs. anything industry wide

• UBS warns labor market “doesn’t look that good”: A new report paints a grim picture of the U.S. jobs market, saying layoffs are rising while hiring stalls, turning the once-resilient labor market into a growing drag on the economy. Citing 157K layoffs in October, the highest since mid-2020, bank likened conditions to a “draining bathtub,” with layoffs outpacing hires and total employment set to shrink

• Costa Coffee takeover? The popular UK coffee cafe is being sold by Coca-Cola, with Centurium Capital, the PE backer of Luckin Coffee, and TDR Capital and Bain Capital, among the interested parties. Costa Coffee is reportedly being valued at around $1.3B

• Bill Holdings explores sale under activist pressure: The SMB and MM business payments platform is weighing a sale after a 45% stock slide this year, as activist investor Starboard Value pushes for change. Struggling with weaker customer spending and rising competition, Bill hired advisers to gauge strategic and sponsor interest

  • Clearwater Analytics $CWAN ( ▲ 7.55% ) , a financial software company, is also reportedly evaluating a sale after receiving takeout interest.

• KKR-backed Optiv in quiet talks with lenders as debt pressure mounts: The cybersecurity firm has entered private negotiations with holders of its second-lien loans as it faces over $1B in debt coming due next year, including a $650M term loan maturing in 2026. Since S&P cut its credit rating to CCC in June, the company’s bonds have plunged to 76 cents on the dollar

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M&A Transactions💭 

vLex, developer of a legal information platform, was acquired for $1.0B by Clio. J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Numis advised on the sale.

TreeHouse Foods (NYS: THS), the largest pure-play private-label manufacturer in the U.S., has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.77B by Investindustrial. EV/Revenue was 0.83x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Novaria Group, operator of a family of precision component companies, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.2B by Arcline. EV/Revenue was 55.17x.

Frulact, producer of natural ingredients, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 600.0M by Nexture S.p.A.. EV/Revenue was 2.38x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Forum Engineering (TKS: 7088), provider of human resources, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 90.0B by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. EV/EBITDA was 33.96x and EV/Revenue was 4.71x.

Potters Industries, manufacturer of engineered glass materials, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Macquarie Group, UniSuper Superannuation Fund, and Partners Capital.

Macquarie Rotorcraft Leasing, provider of financing and leases for new and used twin-engine helicopters, was acquired for $1.2B by Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing.

Lakera, developer of a security platform, was acquired for $300.0M by Check Point Software Technologies (NAS: CHKP). Perella Weinberg Partners advised on the sale.

Filtration Group, manufacturer of air, gas, and process filtration products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $9.25B by Parker-Hannifin (NYS: PH). EV/EBITDA was 19.56x and EV/Revenue was 4.6x. Lincoln International advised on the sale.

DecisionHR, provider of human resource outsourcing services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $450.0M by Coalesce Capital. Lazard advised on the sale.

Clever Fit, operator of fitness centers, was acquired for EUR 175.0M by Basic-Fit (AMS: BFIT). EV/EBITDA was 12.62x and EV/Revenue was 3.36x.

Access our full M&A datapoints sheet by upgrading below.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Valar Atomics, operator of an atomic energy company, raised $130.0M of venture funding led by Day One Ventures, Snowpoint Ventures, Contrary, and Dream Ventures.

Rebellions, developer of an AI semiconductor-based full-stack alternatives, raised KRW 340.0B of Series C venture funding led by Arm at a pre-money valuation of KRW 2.0T.

Iambic, developer of an AI driven platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from EverBright, Regeneron Ventures, and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati.

FG Communities, operator of a network of manufactured housing communities, raised $113.36M of venture funding from FG Nexus, Fundamental Global SP, and other undisclosed investors.

Clio, developer of an AI based legal practice management platform, raised $850.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $4.15B. $500.0M of Series G funding was led by New Enterprise Associates. The transaction was supported by $350.0M of debt financing.

Wonderful, developer of an AI platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Index Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $600.0M.

MainFunc, developer of a search engine platform, raised an estimated $200.0M of Series B venture funding from LG Technology Ventures, Tencent Investment, and Hongshang Capital at a pre-money valuation of $800.0M.

Highview Power, developer of a large-scale energy storage system, raised $130.0M of venture funding from Mosaic Capital, The Scottish National Investment Bank, and Centrica.

Metsera (NAS: MTSR), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, was acquired for $10.0B by Pfizer (NYS: PFE). EV/Cash Flow was 22.2x. Allen & Company., Bank of America, Guggenheim Partners, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

EQT agrees to invest $900.0M in Douzone Bizone, a provider of enterprise resource planning and business software, for 37.6% stake of the company.

JTC Plc (LON: JTC), a fund solutions and corporate services provider, has agreed to a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 2.7B by Permira.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 72% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December.

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Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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