What You Need To Know for May 8th

Welcome back!

The S&P 500 was up slightly yesterday, and is flattish over the past 5 trading days, as the market waits for the next shoe drop.

The Fed met yesterday and it was no surprise that the Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.5%. Fed Chair continued to reiterate that the Fed was in no rush to act, they were going to wait for a clearer picture from the White House, and that there’s no political pressure associated with their decision making.

Meanwhile, on Truth Social, Trump pre-announced that a major trade deal is coming at 10am this morning - fingers crossed here. As of this evening it sounds like it’s going to be a deal with the UK. Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 📜 

Trending Up 📈 

Walt Disney Company (DIS): Disney beat expectations across the board on a turnaround in streaming. Revenue climbed 7% y/y to $23.6B and adj. EPS hit $1.45 (vs. $1.20 est.). Disney+ added 1.4M subs and swung to a $336M profit on price hikes and ad growth. Parks & Experiences revenue rose 6% y/y, with higher guest spend at domestic parks (+9% y/y) and stronger cruise volumes offsetting a 5% drop in international parks. ESPN profit rose 5%, helped by NFL and CFP games that boosted ad demand. FY25 EPS guide was raised to $5.75 with a $3B buyback reaffirmed. The stock was up 10.8%.

Mattel (MAT): The toymaker posted a modest beat. Sales rose 2% y/y to $827M, slightly ahead of estimates. Hot Wheels and Disney Princess lines led the way, while Baby Gear lagged. EPS loss of –$0.03 beat the Street’s –$0.05 estimate. Gross margin expanded 140bps to 49.4% on inventory cleanup and cost cuts. Management raised its savings target to $80M (from $60M), but pulled FY guide citing tariff uncertainty. Note, Mattel has ~20% exposure to China (w/ plans to get to ~15%), while other toymakers are around ~80%. The stock was up 4.7%.

Electronic Arts (EA): 4Q bookings beat expectations at $1.8B (vs. $1.56B est.), and FY26 guide came in strong. FC and College Football carrying momentum ahead of the key Battlefield reveal. Shares are up 0.62%.

Novo Nordisk (NVO): Novo Nordisk posted a beat on revenue & EPS. Ozempic remained strong, but Wegovy sales declined and FY25 sales growth guide was cut by 3% amid compounding challenges. This is still a dominant GLP-1 story, but cracks have been showing. Shares were up slightly post numbers.

AppLovin (APP): AppLovin posted a solid beat with 1Q sales up 7% y/y to $1.48B and EPS at $1.67 (vs. $1.45 est.). The company sold its gaming unit to Tripledot for $400M. Shares jumped 13.4% after hours.

Carvana (CVNA): Carvana beat across the board, with 1Q sales up 17% y/y to $4.23B and units sold jumping 46%. EPS of $1.51 crushed estimates. Mgmt raised long-term targets and actually flagged panic buying from tariffs as a potential tailwind. Shares were up 2% after hours.

Ares Management (ARES): Ares revenue missed slightly at $897M, but EPS beat by $0.15. AUM rose 27% y/y to $546B and the dividend was raised 20%, but net income dipped on GCP deal costs and choppy markets. Shares are up after the print.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM): ADM revenue fell 7.3% y/y to $20.2B, missing estimates, as Ag profit dropped 52% on weak margins and China exposure. EPS beat slightly, and FY guide was held but leaned cautious. Shares rose slightly.

Marriott (MAR): Marriott’s revenue rose 5% y/y to $6.26B, but RevPAR guidance was cut to 1.5%–3.5% (from 2%–4%) as government travel slowed and booking trends softened. Shares rose 1.6%.

Trending Down 📉 

Palantir (PLTR): Palantir revenue rose 39% y/y, beating the $863M estimate, fueled by growth in the U.S. commercial and government sales. EPS met at $0.13. The company closed 139 $1M+ deals and raised FY revenue guidance to $3.89B–$3.90B, while also lifting FCF and adjusted income targets. International commercial revenue fell 5% y/y, missing expectations. Shares are down 11% since earnings.

Uber (UBER): The rideshare platform posted mixed results, with revenue of $11.53B just missing estimates, while EPS beat by $0.33. Gross bookings rose 14%, with Mobility +13% (slowest since COVID) and Delivery +15%. Uber guided 2Q bookings of $45.75B–$47.25B and EBITDA of $2.02B–$2.12B, in line with consensus, and flagged a 1.5% FX headwind. Outside the core, Uber acquired 85% of Trendyol GO for ~$700M and expanded AV partnerships with Waymo, Pony.ai, and others. Shares fell 2.5%.

Ford (F): The automaker posted a top and bottom line beat, with 1Q revenue of $40.7B, topping the $36.21B estimate. EPS came in at $0.14 vs. $0.02 expected, as stronger pricing and cost cuts drove EBIT to hit $1B, well above breakeven forecasts. Management pulled FY25 guidance, citing a $2.5B projected EBIT hit from new tariffs (although they’re working to cut costs by $1B). Shares were down 1.53% after an initial pop.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN): Rivian revenue beat at $1.24B with a narrower EPS loss, helped by software and regulatory credits. But FY deliveries were cut and capex raised amid tariff pressures, weighing on sentiment. Shares fell 5.8%.

TransDigm Group (TDG): Sales rose 12% y/y to $2.15B, just shy of estimates, but EPS beat at $9.11 on strong aftermarket and defense demand. Power & Control led with +21% growth. FY guide was raised as the company expects to navigate tariffs cleanly. Shares are down slightly.

Arm Holdings (ARM): Revenue rose 34% y/y to $1.24B and EPS beat at $0.55 vs. $0.52 est., but the company guided below consensus for both revenue and earnings next quarter. Overall, AI momentum is cooling, and margins are facing pressure. Shares fell 11.6% after hours.

Zillow (ZG): Revenue beat slightly, but 2Q guidance offered little upside. Ongoing real estate softness and recent EPS downgrades left investors unimpressed. ZG is down 5.9% after hours.

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Apple calls out trouble at Google: In a troubling reveal, Apple revealed it may revamp its Safari web browser to incorporate AI, and has said traffic is declining as users are asking questions to AI operators such as OpenAI and Perplexity instead. Google reportedly pays Apple $20 billion/year to be the default offering in Apple’s browser. Apple shares fell modestly while Alphabet shares fell more than 7% yesterday

• The White House relaxes chip rules: The Trump administration plans to repeal Biden’s AI chip export rule, easing restrictions amid pressure from Nvidia and allies, while pursuing simpler controls targeting countries that may divert chips to China

• Paul Tudor-Jones thinks AI is an “existential threat.” The billionaire investor shared that he thinks there’s a 10-20% chance that the new technology will decimate the world. In an interview this week, Tudor-Jones called for the government to step in

• Keeping an eye on the ports: Wall Street is closely tracking shipping and logistics data—like port activity, truck orders, and canceled sailings—to assess the economic impact of Trump’s new tariffs. Early signs show falling imports, shrinking truck demand, and weakening global supply chain activity

• Baby you’re a firework: It might be hard to get fireworks this 4th of July - 95% of firework exports into the U.S. are from China. The President of the National Fireworks Association has said: “Shipping has essentially stopped. While there’s still a good amount of fireworks in the U.S. from wholesalers who stocked up earlier, we’re still expecting shortages because many of us typically rely on shipments that would have arrived over the past month.” Firework providers are just electing to leave shipments overseas, with cancellations already flowing in the 2026 season (when our nation turns 250 years old)

• Did you know retail investors only spend 6 minutes researching a stock? Two NYU professors found that the median investor spends just a few minutes looking at a name, and most of those looking at a price chart of a stock’s recent performance (often that day’s trading session)

• Everyone is cheating their way through college: New York Magazine ran a piece about how colleges are at a breaking point - as AI usage is so widespread, professors are struggling with how to teach and grade students - with worries over how students can gain critical thinking skills

• Post “Liberation Day” banker blues. Since April 2, fewer deals have been signed than in the worst days of the pandemic or the Great Recession. Last month, the number of M&A contracts announced globally fell to the lowest level in 20 years

• Bloomberg did a deep-dive on LMEs: Bloomberg’s big-take piece on LMEs showcased how Sponsors are favoring large credit managers to engage in LME and even pushing lenders into third-lien debt.

  • In an example with Tropicana, First-Out loans were priced at 95-97 cents on the dollar, while second-out and third-out debt was priced at 61-63 cents and 28.5-31.5 cents respectively

• UBS lowers their corporate debt issuance guide: The Bank now expects 2025 high-yield bond issuance of $250B (down from prior estimates of $310B) and $400B in leveraged loan sales (vs. $475B)

• The most wonderful place in the Middle East: Disney will open a new theme park in Abu Dhabi—its seventh globally—through a partnership with local firm Miral, expanding its Experiences division. The move follows strong quarterly earnings and aligns with Disney’s $60B investment plan for parks and resorts

• Clearlake Capital is building out its credit business, with the goal of tripling assets to $100B one day. Clearlake’s MV Credit and WhiteStar Asset Management will be folded into the firm’s flagship $57B credit arm which includes private and liquid markets

• Keeping it in the Xamily: Elon Musk’s xAI is using Tesla Megapack batteries to support its “Colossus” supercomputer in Memphis, ensuring stability during power surges and outages. xAI has spent $230 million on Megapacks, which also help store and resell electricity

• Musical chairs continues: Trump nominated Casey Means as surgeon general after abruptly withdrawing Janette Nesheiwat, whose credentials faced scrutiny

• Trouble in the skies: Boeing plans to deliver the new Air Force One by 2027 to meet Trump’s second-term deadline, though officials caution delays may persist. The project is years behind schedule due to technical issues, prompting Trump to consider alternative aircraft options (including a fmr.-Qatari jet)

M&A Transactions💭 

Weights & Biases, developer of a dataset optimization system, was acquired for $1.7B by CoreWeave (NAS: CRWV). D’Ornano + Co. and Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Skechers USA (NYS: SKX), a lifestyle footwear company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $9.4B by 3G Capital. EV/EBITDA was 8.75x and EV/Revenue was 1.03x. Greenhill & Company advised on the sale.

Sikora, manufacturer and supplier of measuring and control technology, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $617.41M by Dover (NYS: DOV). EV/Revenue was 5.71x.

Parkland (TSE: PKI), a fuel distributor, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $13.727B by Sunoco (NYS: SUN). EV/EBITDA was 13.63x and EV/Revenue was 0.68x. BMO Capital Markets and Bank of America advised on the sale.

Danelec Marine, manufacturer of maritime hardware products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $194.0M by Gaztransport & Technigaz (PAR: GTT). EV/EBITDA was 20.54x and EV/Revenue was 4.03x.

xData Group, a B2B software development company, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Alpha Star Acquisition (NASDAQ: ALSA) through a reverse merger.

Sevenrooms, developer of reservation and guest management software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.2B by DoorDash (NAS: DASH). William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

OC Oerlikon, provider of filament spinning systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $856.51M by Rieter Holdings (SWX: RIEN). EV/Revenue was 1.03x.

Harman International has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Audio Unit of Masimo (NAS: MASI) for $350.0M.

Kurt Geiger, retailer of footwear and accessories, was acquired for $380.18M by Steve Madden (NAS: SHOO). EV/Revenue was 0.75x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

FARO Technologies (NAS: FARO), a technology company, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $920.0M by AMETEK (NYS: AME). EV/EBITDA was 33.3x and EV/Revenue was 2.7x.

AvidXchange (NAS: AVDX), a provider of AP automation software, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.2B by Corpay and TPG. EV/EBITDA was 76.33x and EV/Revenue was 4.99x. Barclays and Financial Technology Partners advised on the sale.

Deliveroo (LON: ROO), an online food delivery platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.9B by DoorDash (NAS: DASH). Allen & Company, Brunswick Group, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

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Private Placement Transactions💭 

Anysphere, developer of AI intelligence powered coding platform, raised $900.0M of venture funding led by Thrive Capital at a pre-money valuation of $8.1B.

Laxey, operator of a fish farm, raised EUR 130.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity from undisclosed investors. The equity funding was led by The Sigurjon Oskarsson Family.

HubSync, developer of a tax integration platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from Thoma Bravo.

Atlas Data Storage, developer of a data storage company, raised $155.0M of seed funding from ARCH Venture Partners, Deerfield Management, and Tao Capital Partners.

Wonder Group, operator of a cloud kitchen platform, raised $600.0M of venture funding led by GV, AMEX Ventures, Forerunner Ventures, Accel, and New Enterprise Associates at a pre-money valuation of $6.4B.

Unrivaled Sports, operator of a youth sports club, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by DSG Ventures.

Statsig, developer of digital product testing platform, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by ICONIQ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $1.0B.

Quantum Systems, developer of commercial unmanned aerial systems, raised EUR 160.0M of Series C venture funding led by Balderton Capital.

Parloa, developer of conversational AU platform, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by Altimeter Capital Management, General Catalyst, and Durable Capital Partners at a pre-money valuation of $894.0M.

NewLimit, developer of precision medicines, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding led by Kleiner Perkins.

Lumicell, developer of oncology surgical devices, raised $198.13M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Finom, developer of a financial platform, received EUR 92.7M of grant funding from General Catalyst.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

The Fed isn’t expected to do anything in June either. Kalshi traders are pricing in a 80% chance of no change in rates in June.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

S&P 500 returns during the first 100 days of a Presidency:

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.

Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.