What You Need To Know for May 15th

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Welcome back! Well that rally we previewed on Sunday night sure played out. The rapid de-escalation of tariffs has shot the market nearly back to pre-tariff levels. Just like that, the Nasdaq is only -3.84% off its previous highs. Just don’t tell the long-dated treasury bros - as the expectation of aggressive fiscal spending continues to weigh on U.S. treasuries. Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 📜 

Sony (SONY): Sales missed, down 24% y/y to $17.24B, while EPS hit at $0.21 vs. $0.12 est. Company announced a $1.7B buyback and plans to spin off its financial unit in October. FY25 guide came in soft, citing a large tariff hit. Management reiterated its pivot toward content, now 61% of total sales. Shares rose 3.7% after earnings.

On Holding (ONON): Sales beat with revenue rising 43% y/y, with footwear up 40.5% and apparel up more than double. EPS fell 39% y/y. The company raised its full-year net sales outlook to +28% but trimmed its EBITDA margin guidance slightly due to tariff uncertainty. The stock rose nearly 12%.

Venture Global (VG): Revenue beat, more than doubling y/y to $2.9B, but EBITDA missed at $1.35B and FY25 guidance was cut. Management said the full Plaquemines LNG facility will be online by year-end, and expects to sell hundreds of higher-margin LNG shipments on the spot market. Shares rallied initially, before ending yesterday down 5%, with Goldman cutting its price target to $17.50.

Cisco (CSCO): Revenue beat at $14.15B (+1 1% y/y) and EPS of $0.96 topped the Street $0.92 expected. Management raised FY guidance and highlighted $1.25B in AI infra orders YTD, a quarter ahead of plan. Shares are up 2.6% after market close.

Fox Corp (FOXA): Fox revenue rose 26.8% y/y to $4.37B, beating by 5.3%. EPS came in at $1.10, up 0.9% y/y. Ad revenue surged 64.9%, driven by Super Bowl LIX and digital growth led by Tubi. Despite margin pressure from rising sports costs, platform strength remained a key theme. Shares rose 6.3% post earnings.

Under Armour (UAA): Revenue fell 11% y/y to $1.18B but came in above expectations. Gross margin expanded 170bps to 46.7%. The company plans price hikes and supply chain shifts to offset looming tariff risks. FY26 outlook was withheld due to uncertainty. Shares were flattish.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Revenue beat at $981.6M vs. $862.3M. Adjusted EBITDA hit $606.1M, though net loss totaled $314.6M on high operating and interest costs. Management cited strong AI demand and a major OpenAI deal, plus a $25.9B backlog. However, their whopping $20-$23B in capex spend this year has the stock down 7.8% after hours.

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Trump’s tax bill advances, but SALT fight simmers: House Republicans moved forward with Trump’s sweeping tax package, but internal tensions remain over the proposed $30K SALT deduction cap for households earning $400k or less. Lawmakers from high-tax states want it lifted further, while GOP leaders aim to pass what they call “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” before next week’s full vote. Here’s some of the notable additions and removals:

  • The bill could deliver no tax on tips and tax-free overtime pay

  • A potential increase in the tax rate of 37% to 39.6%, for those making more than $2mm/year, has been dropped.

  • Carried Interest rates are remaining unchanged.

  • Universities with more than $2mm/per pupil will start paying a 21% tax rate on net investment income (vs. 1.4% currently), while a lower rate will be in place for the $750k-$2mm/per pupil range

• UnitedHealth is under pressure. Last night, news broke that UnitedHealth Group is under criminal investigation by the DOJ for potential Medicare fraud, sending shares down 8% after hours. This follows the news earlier this week of CEO Andrew Witty abruptly stepping down amid rising medical costs, prompting the company to suspend its 2025 guidance. CEO Stephen Hemsley is returning to stabilize the insurer. UHG has been struggling with growth as expansion into new customers means taking on riskier or unhealthier customers that are driving higher insurance costs

• April inflation cools, but tariff tremors loom: Consumer prices rose 2.3% annually, the slowest pace in over four years, easing investor concerns. However, economists warn that new Trump-era tariffs could reignite inflationary pressures in the coming months

• Saudi Arabia commits $600B to U.S. investments: The deal includes a $142B arms agreement and significant purchases from GE Vernova and Boeing, strengthening economic ties. This marks the largest bilateral commercial pact in U.S. history, but there’s still some questions on what the entire $600B entails

• IPO latest: 

  • Figma charts a course to the public markets after Adobe deal collapse: Design software firm Figma hired Morgan Stanley to lead its public offering, aiming for a valuation around $12.5B. The move follows regulatory hurdles that derailed its $20B acquisition by Adobe

  • Chime eyes $1B raise IPO: The digital banking startup, valued at nearly $25B, has filed confidentially with plans to go public in 2025. Morgan Stanley is set to lead the underwriting process. Apparently Chime, who spends aggressively on marketing, has a $33mm partnership with the Dallas Mavericks

  • eToro surges 28% in Nasdaq debut: The trading platform's IPO priced at $52 per share, valuing the company at approximately $4.2B. Spark Capital, the largest shareholder and a VC that invested $19mm 15 years ago, saw a whopping $530mm gain

  • Ryan Reynolds’s MNTN is looking to raise up to $187mm at a $1.2B valuation

• Josh Kushner’s big Carvana win: Venturing outside of the typical venture mandate, Kushner’s Thrive acquired Carvana shares in March 2022, with the trade more than quadrupling and leading to $454mm in distributions to LPs

• Dick’s looks to lace up a $2.3B Foot Locker deal: In a bold retail consolidation move, Dick’s Sporting Goods is nearing a deal to acquire Foot Locker for $24 a share—an 87% premium. Foot Locker has been battered by tariffs and weak Nike sales, making it a prime target for Dick’s biggest-ever expansion

• Blackstone targets $5.6B for new PE fund: The private equity giant is in discussions to raise a fund focused on acquiring minority stakes in other PE firms. This move underscores the growing trend of investing in asset managers themselves

• HBO Max returns: After dropping 'HBO' from its streaming service in 2023, Warner Bros. will reinstate the iconic name to leverage its premium content reputation. The rebranding (five in as many years) aims to boost global subscriber growth amid stiff competition

• Portland Trail Blazers officially up for sale: The estate of the late Paul Allen announced the NBA team's sale, with proceeds set to fund philanthropic efforts. The franchise could fetch around $4B, attracting significant investor interest

• Buffett steps aside, citing age and slowing pace: Warren Buffett, 94, says there was no single moment — but growing signs, from balance issues to fading stamina, made it clear he could no longer match Greg Abel’s pace. “It was unfair, really, not to put Greg in the job,” Buffett told the WSJ, adding, “I didn’t really start getting old until I was about 90”

• Stellantis warns of Western collapse in China auto market: The Jeep owner says foreign carmakers are being pushed out of China entirely as local EV brands dominate nearly every segment. With market share halved since 2020 and BYD dethroning Volkswagen, Stellantis is shifting to partnerships with Chinese firms like Leapmotor

• Distressed Retailer At Home is looking to diversify away from China: The Hellman & Friedman backed name, with debt trading <30 cents, is ramping up its effort to diversify its supply chain away from China, with ongoing talks with India based firms

• Baidu eyes Europe for robotaxi rollout: China’s biggest robotaxi operator is in talks to bring autonomous vehicles to Switzerland and Turkey, part of an “asset-light” global push. As Beijing’s AV tech accelerates, Baidu joins a growing list of Chinese firms expanding into Western mobility markets

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M&A Transactions💭 

MAG Silver (TSE: MAG), a Canadian mining company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.127B by Pan American Silver (TSE: PAAS). EV/EBITDA was 22.84x and EV/Net Income was 23.22x. BMO Capital Markets, GenCap Mining Advisory, and Raymond James advised on the sale.

WonderFi Technologies (TSE: WNDR), a technology company with the mission of creating digital access through its platforms, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $172.51M by Robinhood (NAS: HOOD). EV/EBITDA was 139.32x and EV/Revenue was 4.1x. Canaccord Genuity, Financial Technology Partners, Origin Merchant Partners, and PowerOne Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Veren (TSE: VRN), an oil producer company, was acquired for $15.0B by Whitecap Resources (TSE: WCP). EV/EBITDA was 10.96x and EV/Revenue was 4.66x. BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank advised on the sale.

Touchland, operator of sensorial self-care essentials, was acquired for $920.0M by Church & Dwight Company (NYS: CHD). EV/EBITDA was 16.73x and EV/Revenue was 7.08x.

Landsea Homes (NAS: LSEA), a growth-oriented homebuilder, was acquired for $1.2B by The New Home Company. EV/EBITDA was 35.25x and EV/Revenue was 0.77x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Care REIT (LON: CRT), a real estate investment trust, was acquired for $817.0M by CR United Bidco. EV/Net Income 14.22x and EV/Revenue was 9.97x. Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, and Winterflood Securities advised on the sale.

Seagrass Boutique Hospitality Group, operator of restaurants, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 18.0B by Colowide (TKS: 7616).

Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America, operator of gas transmission pipelines, was acquired for $900.0M by ArcLight Capital Partners. The transaction values the company at $3.6B. CIBC Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Hillandale Farms, operator of a poultry farm and a subsidiary of Cal-Maine Foods, was acquired for $1.1B by Granja Faria (BVMF: EGGY3). Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

H&T Group (LON: HAT), a UK-based company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $392.94M by FirstCash (NAS: FCFS). EV/EBITDA was 6.67x and EV/Revenue was 1.16x. Canaccord Genuity and Shore Capital Group advised on the sale.

Greencoat Renewables Portfolio Consisting of Six Wind Farms has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $176.38M by HitecVision.

Gestair, provider of charter and private aviation services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $113.07M by Corporacion Financiera Azuaga and Hyperion Fund FCR.

Admincontrol, developer of cloud-based software intended for secure and effective collaboration, was acquired for NOK 4.65B by Euronext (PAR: ENX). EV/EBITDA was 23.87x and EV/Revenue was 10.56x. Arma Partners advised on the sale.

FlaktGroup, designer and manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.7B by Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930). EV/Revenue was 2.24x.

Fibrenest, provider of fiber broadband services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $132.44M by BUUK Infrastructure.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

AI21 Labs, developer of AI and LLMs, raised $300.0M of Series D venture funding from Nvidia and Alphabet.

Stash, developer of personal finance application, raised $146.0M of Series H funding led by Goodwater Capital.

Classiq Technologies, developer of quantum software platform, raised $110.0M of Series C venture funding led by Entree Capital.

Owner, developer of digital marketing platform, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by Meritech Capital Partners and Headline at a pre-money valuation of $880.0M.

Bestow, operator of an on-demand insurance aggregator platform, raised $120.0M of Series D venture funding led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity and Smith Point Capital.

Azafaros, developer of therapeutic agents, raised EUR 132.0M of Series B venture funding led by Jeito and Forbion.

Addepar, developer of multi-product software, raised $230.0M of Series G venture funding led by WestCap and Vitruvian Partners at a pre-money valuation of $3.02B.

TensorWave, developer of a next generation AI and HPC cloud infrastructure, raised $143.0M through a combination of Series A-2, Series A-3, and Series A-4 venture funding led by AMD Ventures, Magnetar, and Nexus Venture Partners at a pre-money valuation of $134.0M.

MUBI, provider of online movie streaming services, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 67% chance of the courts blocking Trump tariffs

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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