What you Need to Know for June 18th

Kevin Warsh's First Day of School

Author

HY Harry
June 18, 2026

Welcome back everyone. Well, rate hike predictions are on - with Polymarket traders pricing in a 89% chance of 50+ bps of hikes by October 28th, 2026. We’ll get into the Fed meeting details, why Warsh sent the market down, and the Iran war peace signing below.

I will say, seeing someone not named Jerome Powell talking Fed Policy did feel pretty weird.

Today’s piece is sponsored by AlphaSense. Let’s get into it.

Btw, here’ s a look at some of the jobs we’re hiring for on Buyside Hub:

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Thursday: Accenture, Kroger

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims (226,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (11.0), Leading index (0.2%)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Dave and Busters $PLAY ( ▼ 3.12% ) revenue missed at $559.2M vs. $571.1M, while EPS missed at $0.22 vs. $0.37. Results were pressured by a 5.4% decline in comparable sales as elevated gas prices, softer consumer sentiment, and ineffective promotions weighed on traffic and spending, particularly in the company's higher margin gaming business. Management said trends have improved in 2Q and expects positive comparable sales for the remainder of FY26, driven by new games, menu changes, marketing initiatives, World Cup activations, and store remodels, while reiterating expectations for more than $100M in FY FCF..

  • La-Z-Boy $LZB ( ▲ 14.78% ) revenue slightly beat at $570.3M vs. $569.2M while EPS crushed expectations at $1.26 vs. $0.82. Results were driven by strong retail demand, with written sales up 11% and delivered sales up 9%, supported by new store openings, acquisitions, and a growing mix of higher margin company owned stores. Margin expansion also benefited from pricing actions and favorable product mix, while CF and a debt-free balance sheet further supported investor sentiment. Management guided for 1Q FY27 sales of $490M-$510M, implying up to 4% organic growth despite near-term margin pressures, and plans to open about 10 new La-Z-Boy stores and 3-4 Joybird locations this year.

On The Move 📈 📉

  • Smartbird $BIRD ( ▲ 39.09% ) surged after the former Allbirds rebranded to Smartbird and named a tech exec as CEO, further reinforcing the company’s pivot from footwear to AI infrastructure.

  • uniQure $QURE ( ▲ 78.44% ) soared after the FDA softened its stance on AMT-130, accepting three year Phase I/II data as the basis for accelerated approval of the Huntington’s disease gene therapy.

  • Snap $SNAP ( ▼ 8.14% ) slid after launching its Specs AR glasses at $2,195, drawing mixed reactions on the steep price tag and bulky design compared to Meta’s $799 Ray-Ban Display.

  • Used car retailers $KMX ( ▼ 8.98% ) and $CVNA ( ▼ 10.25% ) dropped after CarMax’s Q1 beat was overshadowed by a $230 drop in retail gross profit per unit and rising credit concerns, with Carvana caught in the broader selloff.

  • SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 4.95% ) slipped for the first time since its debut, breaking a three day winning streak that had pushed the stock up 58% above its IPO price.

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IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Csquare Inc. filed publicly for a US IPO as the Brookfield-backed data center operator joins a wave of AI infrastructure listings. The company runs 64 data center sites across the US, Canada, and UK, and plans to use proceeds to pay down its $734M revolving credit facility and a $75M promissory note held by Brookfield. Morgan Stanley, TD Bank, Wells Fargo, BofA, BMO, and Bank of Nova Scotia are leading the offering.

  • Axyv is preparing for a US IPO that could raise up to $2B as soon as next month after L3Harris Technologies’ missile unit filed confidentially in April. The Defense Department invested $1B in the business via convertible preferred shares that convert to common equity at the IPO. L3Harris will keep its majority stake, with the proceeds going toward expanding and modernizing solid rocket motor production facilities. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.

  • Doncasters Group is targeting up to $746.7M in its US IPO, pricing 23.3M shares at $28 to $32 for up to a $4.43B valuation, with pricing set for June 24. The aerospace engine and gas turbine maker, which will list as DPC Holdings, makes components used in GE Aerospace engines powering Boeing’s 737 family and Airbus’s A320/A321 aircraft. Jefferies and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.

  • Cellares raised $50M from Prime Radiant Partners as part of its $327M Series D, with the cell therapy manufacturing biotech eyeing a potential 2027 IPO. The round, which included BlackRock, T. Rowe Price, and Ark Invest, brings Cellares’ total funding to $682M and pushes its valuation close to $1B.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • The Fed decision kept rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but the dot plot showed a split between FOMC members who want a rate hike later in the year, vs. those who want to hold rates or cut once. Warsh abstained from the dot plot, and vocalized during his speech that he’s not really a fan of the Fed giving forward guidance, and wants to rely on the market just relying on economic data instead of Fed data. That’s not the most encouraging thing for us as investors, but Warsh did vocalize that price stability (returning inflation to 2%) is very important to him, showing a hawkish tilt even though the President might starkly disagree.

    • Warsh announced several “task forces” to work through new ways the Fed will communicate, manage the balance sheet, and approach data. These sound like groups that will assemble over the coming weeks and have conclusions by year-end.

    • Ultimately, traders got quite hawkish following the dot-plot and these remarks, dumping two-years, and pricing in a hike in the fall. Even with cooling oil prices, all signs point to a return to “higher for longer”.

  • President Trump has signed a copy of the US-Iran peace agreement: Fittingly, at the Palace of Versailles, Trump signed the preliminary peace deal that lays out the provisions towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz and finalizing the deal over the next 60 days. The U.S. and partners would commit $300B for reconstruction, with strings attached of Iran not being allowed to procure or develop nuclear weapons, plus an agreement will have to be reached on what to do with Iran’s uranium stockpiles.

    • From a markets standpoint, the war is considered done at this point, with crude oil down from $90/bbl to <$75 over the past 5 days.

  • JPMorgan’s David Kelly says AI capex will extend the bull market: The $4.3T asset manager is urging investors to stick with stocks and higher-risk assets, citing AI infrastructure spending and higher-income consumers spending more. Kelly expects no Fed rate hikes for the next two years and a possible cut in 2027, while warning any bear market would likely center on AI given concentration risk.

  • Medallia hands over the keys to Blackstone-led creditor group: Blackstone, Apollo, and FS KKR will inject $150M of new capital, significantly curbing Medallia’s ~$3B debt load, with the freed-up capital and $500M previously committed going toward its AI push. The takeover follows Thoma Bravo’s refusal to put more cash into Medallia, which it took private at a $6.4B valuation in 2021.

  • How Private Equity sent Leslie’s Poolmart from $3 Billion to Pennies: In a deep dive, by Inc, they profiled how financial engineering and collapsing sales, led to Leslie’s reaching its “last day of Lehman” moment.

  • Bondholders grant Brightline more time on debt payments: Brightline secured an extension on a payment for its $985M in muni bonds through end of June, with bondholders also waiving a default for a $22.2M working capital loan from bond insurer Assured Guaranty. The grace period expires alongside July 1 coupons on $2.2B of senior debt and $1.1B of corporate notes.

  • What finance careers are safe from AI: We took a deep dive into what careers in Finance should be insulated from AI and how to make sure you are letting AI supercharge you, as opposed to having it erode your capabilities as a banker or investment professional. Read here.

  • Robinhood slashes 10% of staff in restructuring: The brokerage will lay off ~290 employees in its first major reduction in three years, with CEO Vlad Tenev framing the move as a push to “maximize talent density.” Robinhood expects ~$28M in charges tied to severance and share-based compensation.

  • Apple confirms price hikes: Tim Cook called the surge in DRAM and NAND prices a “hundred-year flood,” with both chip categories up 4x since last year. TechInsights estimates the cost pass-through adds $270 to the next iPhone Pro, and Morgan Stanley forecasts a 15% broad price increase across smartphones and PCs this year.

  • Kyla Scanlon joins CNN as an Analyst and Contributor: The financial content creator known for coining the phrase “vibecession” is moving deeper into journalism. Scanlon will focus on CNN Business, bringing her views to various CNN outlets.

  • Oaktree clears redemption queue as competitors cap withdrawals: A $7B Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund saw redemptions drop from 8.5% to 4.5% quarter-over-quarter, falling below the 5% cap that many other credit managers are strictly enforcing. Oaktree credited disciplined underwriting and its distressed-investing reputation.

M&A Transactions💭 

Sleep Number (NAS: SNBR), a designer, manufacturer, marketer, and retailer, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $415.0M by Sleep Country Canada (TSE: ZZZ). EV/Revenue was 0.31x. Guggenheim Partners advised on the sale.

Chemical Company of Malaysia, manufacturer of specialty chemicals, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for MYR 920.0M by TKM Chemical (KL: 5330).

Ajax Therapeutics, developer of targeted therapy drugs, was acquired for $2.3B by Lilly USA (NAS: LLY).

SL Bio (NAS: SLBT), a biomedical company, acquired Horizon Space Acquisition II (NAS: HSPT) through a $5.7B reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol SLBT.  

Twin Peaks Restaurants (BER: T6E), a franchisor and operator of two dining restaurant concepts, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $360.0M by Summit Acquisition Group.

Thefork, developer of a dining reservation platform, was acquired for $700.0M by American Express (NYS: AXP).

Teltronic, designer and manufacturer of wireless communications products, was acquired for EUR 225.0M by Amper (MAD: AMP).

Roku (NAS: ROKU), enables consumers to stream television programming, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $17.604B by Fox (NAS: FOXA). EV/EBITDA was 42.53x and EV/Revenue was 4.86x. Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Payoneer (NAS: PAYO), a financial technology company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.7B by Nuvei Technologies. EV/Net Income was 38.1x and EV/Revenue was 3.26x. Qatalyst Partners and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

KORE Wireless (NYS: KORE), offers IoT connectivity to the internet, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $726.0M by Abry Partners and Searchlight. the transaction values the company at $1.25B. EV/EBITDA was 44.61x and EV/Revenue was 4.48x. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Genesis Digital Assets, operator of bitcoin mining operations, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $500.0M by SWI Capital Holdings (AMS: SWICH). EV/Revenue was 15.15x.

Fin, developer of a conversational relationship platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.6B by Salesforce (NYS: CRM). EV/EBITDA was 90.0x and EV/Revenue was 24.0x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Dahl International, wholesaler of plumbing and heating equipment, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.2B by Kesko (HEL: KESKOA).

Gilat Satellite Networks (NAS: GILT) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Satellite & Space Communications Segment of Comtech Telecommunications (NAS: CMTL) for $157.5M. EV/EBITDA was 9.26x and EV/Revenue was 0.81x. TD Securities advised on the sale.

Celerion, provider of early-phase clinical research, was acquired for $1.8B by Thomas H. Lee Partners. EV/EBITDA was 12.0x. Bank of America and Lazard advised on the sale.

Andrew Peller (TSE: ADW.A), a wine-producing company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $397.0M by Fairfax Financial Holdings. EV/EBITDA was 11.66x and EV/Revenue was 2.08x. Avington Financial and Canaccord Genuity advised on the sale.

The Pizza Hit China Business of Yum! Brands has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.2B by Yum China (NYS: YUMC). Barclays and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Pizza Hut, operator of a fest-food restaurant chain and a subsidiary of Yum! Brands, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by LongRange Capital. EV/Revenue was 0.12x. Barclays and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Sunclass Airlines, operator of a charter airline transport company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $833.0M by Norwegian Air Shuttle (OSL: NAS). EV/Revenue was 0.52x.

Simulations Plus (NAS: SLP), engaged in the software industry, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $375.0M by Altaris. EV/Revenue was 4.66x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Rupert Resources, engaged in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties, was acquired for CAD 2.9B by Agnico Eagle Mines (TSE: AEM). BMO Capital Markets and Origin Merchant Partners advised on the sale.

Kennedy Wilson, developer of an international real estate investment and service firm, was acquired for $1.65B by Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSE: FFH). Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Isola Group, manufacturer of copper-clad laminates, was acquired for $280.0M by Principal Mineral, J2 Ventures, Overmatch Ventures, The New Industrial Corporation, and Ensemble VC.

Huntsman (NYS: HUN), manufacturer of differentiated organic chemical products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.887B by Olin (NYS: OLN). Citigroup and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Greenlink Interconnector, an electricity interconnector cable project, was acquired for $200.0M by Mubadala Investment Company.

FAT Brands, a multi-brand restaurant franchising company, was acquired for $595.0M by FBG Bid. GLC Advisors & Company advised on the sale.

Eigen AI, developer of an AI optimization system, was acquired for $643.0M by Nebius Group (NAS: NBIS).

Cursor, developer of an AI-powered coding platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $60.0B by SpaceX (NAS: SPCX).

Perfuse Therapeutics, operator of a biotechnology company, was acquired for $2.45B by Bayer (ETR: BAYN). Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

EagleRidge Energy, operator of an oil and gas company, was acquired for JPY 200.0B by Marubeni (TKS: 8002).

Candid Therapeutics, operator of a biotechnology research company, was acquired for $2.0B by UCB (BRU: UCB). Bank of America and Jefferies advised on the sale.

AstroNova (NAS: ALOT), designs, develops, manufacturers, and distributes a broad range of specialty printers, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $272.0M by Arcline. EV/EBITDA was 41.27x and EV/Revenue was 1.79x.

EigenQ, developer of quantum-security infrastructure, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $215.0M by Silicon Valley Acquisition through a reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol EIGQ. Bradley Woods & Co. advised on the transaction.

L&Q PRS, provider of residential letting services, was acquired for GBP 1.045B by Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing and Ridgeback Group. BNP Paribas advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Seahi, manufacturer of water-based robotic and unmanned equipment, raised over CNY 1.0B of Series B+ venture funding from Anyu Capital, SJ Jiacheng Investment Management, and China’s Largest Agricultural Industry Fund Under CITIC Group.

Hydra Host, developer of a distributed bare-metal infrastructure platform, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by Kindred Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $700.0M.

GigaAI, developer of a spatial intelligence and world model platform, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B2 venture funding from Jiantou Huawen Investment, Wanxiang Qianchao Company, Huagai Venture Capital, and Jiangsu youcheng Jinchuang Investment Management.

Cellares, operator of an integrated development and manufacturing organization, raised $327.0M of Series D venture funding led by BlackRock Private Equity and Eclipse Capital.

SiliconFlow, developer of an AI model service platform, raised CNY 2.0B of Series B venture funding from Giant Network, Guotai Junan Innovation Investment, and JinkoSolar Holding.

Rent2Cash, developer of a rental management platform, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding led by SM Capital.

Principal Mineral, developer of strategic metals, raised $280.0M of venture funding led by Overmatch Ventures and The New Industrial Corporation.

Ent AI, developer of an enterprise security platform, raised $100.0M of Seed Funding led by Decibel Partners.

DeepSeek, developer of an open-source LLM, raised over 50.0B yuan of venture funding from Tencent Holdings (0700.HK), Contemporary Amperex Technology (SHE: 300750), and JD.com (HKG: 09618) at a pre-money valuation of CNY 288.0B.

Yuntain Cloud, provider of accelerated cloud computing solutions, raised over CNY 1.0B of Series E venture funding led by China Internet Investment Fund.

Reverse Matrix Technology, provider of advanced technology services, raised over $100.0M of Seed Funding from Ant Group, GL Ventures, and Yanyuan Venture Capital.

MoleculeMind, developer of an integrated biological computing system, raised over $100.0M of Series A+ venture funding led by Blue Bridge Advisors and Shanghai Pudong Venture Capital.

Karta, operator of a credit card company, raised $140.0M of Series A venture funding led by Galaxy Ventures.

Twenty, developer of a cyber-warfighting platform, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Accel at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Odyssey, developer of general-purpose world models, raised $310.0M of Series A venture funding led by Natural Capital at a pre-money valuation of $1.14B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 89% chance of 50+ bps of rate hikes by October 28, 2026.

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