What you Need to Know for July 8th

The Semis Slowdown continues

Author

HY Harry
July 08, 2026

Welcome back. Well, just like that, geopolitical risk is back on the cards. The U.S, launched airstrikes on defense launchers in Iran and revoked an oil sales waiver after Iran targeted commercial ships. Right now, we’re pretty early into the 60-day peace talks, so further escalation could disrupt talks. You never know how this will resolve prior to market open, but expect a small uptick in oil prices. This isn’t big enough at this stage to derail broader bullishness though.

The AI trade is continuing to slow down, with recent Samsung performance not alleviating any worries. Still, there’s a lot of “we need to build as fast as possible” activity by the hyperscalers, with Amazon raising $25B in debt financing, and the SK Hynix listing coming Thursday. More on that below.

We hope everyone has been enjoying the World Cup (despite questionable VAR calls). Crazy enough, this is the first day without World Cup action since the tournament started.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: Levi Strauss & Co, Helen of Troy, AZZ, PriceSmart

  • Thursday: PepsiCo, WD-40, Simply Good Foods Company

  • Friday: Delta

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, Minutes of Fed’s June FOMC meeting, Consumer credit

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Existing home sales

  • Friday: None scheduled

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Samsung $SSNLF ( ▲ 116.8% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue at 171T won vs. 168T won and EPS at 89.4T won vs. 87.3T won. Results were driven by continued AI memory demand, as hyperscalers expanded AI infrastructure spending, lifting DRAM and NAND prices while tight memory supply supported pricing despite large employee bonus expenses. However, shares fell as the strong quarter was largely priced in after Samsung's stock more than doubled this year, while concerns grew that slower AI infrastructure spending by major U.S. tech companies could cool future memory demand and memory pricing.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • SK Hynix is seeing its $28B US listing multiple times oversubscribed ahead of Thursday’s pricing, with Baillie Gifford, Coatue, and Situational Awareness Partners indicating interest in as much as $7B of ADRs. The South Korean memory chipmaker’s offering would be the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company, with Nasdaq trading beginning Friday. BofA, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are among the banks working on the deal.

  • Hub International Holdings Inc. is seeking to raise ~$3B in its IPO, with the Hellman & Friedman-backed insurance broker targeting a public debut as soon as this year. The company was last valued at $29B in a May 2025 minority round led by T. Rowe Price, Alpha Wave Global, and Temasek. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.

  • Standard Nuclear Inc. is targeting up to $383M in its US IPO, pricing 18.25M shares at $18-$21 for up to a $3.5B valuation. The nuclear fuel maker recently agreed to collaborate with Oklo on fuel recycling and entered DOE talks to convert surplus plutonium into reactor fuel. The pricing more than quadruples the company’s $838M valuation from January’s Series A. BofA and Goldman Sachs are leading the offering.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Two Millennium index rebalancing pods generated $3.7B in June: Glen Scheinberg and Pratik Madhvani’s teams, which specialize in highly leveraged bets on index additions and deletions, captured more than half of the fund’s $6.6B pre-fee monthly profit. The profits lifted Millennium’s June return to 4.1% and 10.5% YTD.

  • Appaloosa posts 32% H1 return on memory chip concentration: David Tepper’s $23B fund rode SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, Kioxia, and Sandisk through the AI-driven high-bandwidth memory and NAND flash upcycle, generating Q2’s gains while holding ~40% cash.

  • Amazon’s $25B AI bond meets softer demand as tech debt piles up: Demand peaked at $62B and settled at ~$41B after banks trimmed spreads, or 1.6x the deal size vs the ~4x average for US high-grade this year. This deal brings Amazon’s LTM bond issuance to $107B., the most of any big tech, and pushed 2026 AI-linked debt sales to ~$335B globally, more than 2× 2025.

  • PE firms sit on a 9-year exit backlog as AI worries hit software holdings: ~13,500 US companies remain in PE portfolios, including ~1,200 software firms bought at lofty 2020-2021 valuations that have since been slashed by SaaS-Pocalypse AI fears. Almost 4,000 companies have been held 6+ years and ~1,500 for 9+ years, with 2021 vintages the hardest to exit.

  • BlackRock’s Boivin says private credit is poised for a larger AI role: The head of BlackRock Investment Institute said the AI buildout will force companies to borrow across all channels, creating a “big tailwind” for private credit. Bloomberg Intelligence projects 2026 capex for the six largest US hyperscalers will hit ~$820B, up nearly 80% from 2025.

  • Autodoc raises €530M term loan to buy out Apollo’s minority stake: The German online car-parts retailer is using debt to repurchase Apollo Hybrid Value’s 2024 15% stake previously used to fund IPO preparations. Companies are increasingly tapping strong credit markets to resolve investor liquidity needs in lieu of public offerings.

  • HSBC pulls back from riskier private credit back leverage: Europe’s largest bank is non-renewing facilities for private credit clients where returns failed to justify the risk after a $400M charge tied to the collapse of UK bridging lender Market Financial Solutions.

  • Sports M&A set to accelerate: William Blair, the advisory firm behind Liverpool and 76ers deals, recently acquired Inner Circle Sports and expects deal volume to rise as minority stakeholders seek exits, NIL agreements reshape college athletics, and real estate development around stadiums is becoming more popular. Women’s sports, NBA international expansion, and ultra-high-net-worth capital are the next tailwinds.

  • Mutual fund markdowns reveal billions in hidden private software losses: Bloomberg’s analysis of nearly 50 private software companies held by mutual funds shows average markdowns of 20% in Q1, while PE firms continue to carry the same assets at rosier valuations. Goldman’s AI Disruption Framework flagged 10% of its 700 private software investments as facing imminent disruption risks.

  • Lenders poised to take ownership of Planet Fitness’ largest operator: United PF Holdings, which operates 1.2M members across 14 states, is negotiating a debt-for-equity swap with creditors after skipping April interest payments. The company has a $525M first-lien loan maturing in December and a second-lien loan due in 2027, creating a rapid maturity wall.

  • Carl Icahn lines up $5B rival bid for Caesars: Jefferies is raising $5B in debt to back Icahn’s $33/share counteroffer, topping Fertitta’s accepted $31/share bid before the July 11 go-shop window closes. Icahn’s structure would move Caesars assets into a subsidiary vehicle, potentially stripping existing creditors.

  • Blue Owl’s HomeCourt Partners takes minority stake in Cleveland Cavaliers: The fund acquired a reported 5-10% stake in the $4.86B franchise, adding to existing positions in Atlanta, Sacramento, and Minnesota. NBA rules cap PE firms at eight teams total, with no single institutional investor holding more than 20% of a franchise.

  • Xbox Layoffs were announced on Monday, with 3,200 jobs (20% of the unit) getting cut. Half of the layoffs occurred Monday, while the rest will be through FY27 due to low gross margins.

M&A Transactions💭 

Dreampath Diagnostics, developer of laboratory diagnostics devices and pathology workflow solutions, was acquired for EUR 154.0M by Halma (LON: HLMA). A further earn-out of up to EUR 121.0M is contingent on performance over the two years ending march 31st 2027 and 2028, split 38% and 62%.

Shell Downstream South Africa, operator of fuel stations and downstream energy operations in South Africa, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.0B by ADNOC Distribution (ADS: ADNOCDIST). Bank of America advised on the sale.

Abernathy High-Performance Computing Campus, developer of high-performance computing infrastructure for AI workloads, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $530.0M by FluidStack.

Aireon, provider of space-based air traffic surveillance technology, was acquired for $366.7M by Iridium Communications (NAS: IRDM). PJT Partners advised on the sale.

The Life Sciences & Healthcare Business of Clarivate has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $600.0M by Altaris. As part of the transaction Clarivate will receive $500.0M in cash at closing, $25.0M in cash deferred to the completion of a transition services agreement, and a $75.0M seller note. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (NAS: CRNX), commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on endocrine diseases, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $8.99B by Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NAS: VRTX). J.P. Morgan and Leerink Partners advised on the sale.

D Marinas, owner and operator of marina assets and waterfront facilities, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.1474B by InfraVia Capital Partners and its management. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

DZYNE Technologies, developer of autonomous defense and aerospace technologies, was acquired for $875.8M by Ondas (NAS: ONDS). Baird advised on the sale. Robert W. Baird & Co advised on the sale.

Element Solutions (NYS: ESI), manufacturer of specialty chemical products for industrial applications, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $14.5B by Solstice Advanced Materials (NAS: SOLS). EV/EBITDA was 32.25x and EV/Revenue was 5.18x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Myricx Bio, developer of antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapies, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Novartis (SWX: NOVN).

Orikan, provider of parking management and enforcement software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 475.0M by EQT Private Capital Asia. Flagstaff Partners advised on the sale.

Primary Bank (OTCM: PRMY), provider of commercial and retail banking services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $161.4M by Hometown Financial Group. Brean Capital advised on the sale.

Toronto Association of Business Improvement Areas, operator of business improvement area management services, was acquired for 3.06B by Rogers (NYS: ROG).

Vega Therapeutics, developer of therapies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, was acquired for $2.0B by Incyte (NAS: INCY). Lazard advised on the sale.

The Precision Casting Business Unit of Georg Fischer (SWX: GF) has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for CHF 220.0M by Consolidated Precision Products.

Circulo de Credito, provider of credit information and risk assessment services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $825.0M by Equifax (NYS: EFX). EV/Revenue was 6.16x.

Alkira, operator of a network cloud company, was acquired for $475.0M by Lumen Technologies (NYS: LUMN).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Skello, developer of a human resources management software, raised EUR 200.0M of venture funding led by Bridgepoint Group.

Shengshu Technology, developer of multimodal AI models, raised $500.0M of Series B+ funding from undisclosed investors.

Robotera, developer of humanoid robotic systems, raised CNY 1.0B of venture funding led by China Chengtong Holdings Group.

OpenRouter, developer of AI model aggregator platform, raised $113.47M of Series B venture funding led by CapitalG at a pre-money valuation of $1.19B.

Morphi Robot, developer of advanced robotic systems, raised over CNY 1.0B of venture funding from 58 Industry Fund, Source Code Rhythm, Alibaba Group, and Tencent Holding at a pre-money valuation of CNY 6.0B.

Even Reality, manufacturer of smart glasses, raised $150.0M of Series Pre-B venture funding led by Dragonball Capital and Meituan Strategic Investment at a pre-money valuation of $850.0M.

EnergyX, developer of a lithium technology, raised $225.0M of venture funding from Eni Next.

Proxima Fusion, developer of fusion power plants, raised EUR 411.0M of venture funding led by XTX Ventures and East X Ventures at a pre-money valuation of EUR 1.99B.

Fultterwave, developer of a cloud-based end-to-end digital financial platform, raised an estimated $262.0M of Series E venture funding from Ripple, Circle Ventures, and other undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $2.99B.

Quaise Energy, developer of a deep geothermal energy technology platform, raised $134.0M of Series B venture funding led by Prelude Ventures.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 33% chance of France winning The World Cup

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

NYC Apartment growth was up by +38.6k last year, the highest level in 60 years.

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