What you Need to Know for July 29

Fed Decision Day. Semis crash even lower.

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HY Harry
July 29, 2026

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Welcome back.

We have a chaotic day ahead. Big tech earnings are on the agenda, but we also have the fallout from a rapid selloff in AI/Leopold Aschenbrenner linked names and the U.S. having to defend itself from a surprise missile attack from Iran.

Plus, we have the Fed likely to hold rates today, but Citadel thinks a 25bps rate hike may be on the cards; signaling the end of the forward guidance and proving Warsh is serious about inflation. We still think that’d be shocking and a “hold” is more likely, but let’s find out at 2pm ET.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, HSBC, Lam Research, P&G, Arm, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Vertiv, Fortinet, General Dynamics, Equinix, ADP, Robinhood, O’Reilly, Carvana, Boston Scientific, Deutsche Bank, L3Harris, Humana, Garmin, Chipotle, Biogen, GE HealthCare, SoFi, Stanley Black & Decker, MGM, Wingstop, Sonos

  • Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Shell, Anheuser-Busch, Bristol Myers Squibb, KKR, Ferrari, Cigna, Coinbase, Live Nation, Yum! Brands, Hershey, Roblox, Reddit, Rivian, First Solar, Roku, Hyatt, GoDaddy, SiriusXM, Norwegian Cruise Line, Crocs, Mizuho, Altria,

  • Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Ares Management, Moderna, AutoNation, Newell Brands, T. Rowe Price, Newell

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: FOMC interest-rate decision, Fed Chair Warsh press conference

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims (203,000), GDP (2.1%), Personal income (0.4%), Personal spending (0.3), PCE index (-0.1%), PCE y/y (3.7), Core PCE index (0.2%), Core PCE y/y (3.3%)

  • Friday: Employment cost index (0.8%), Chicago Business Barometer PMI (55.0), Consumer sentiment (54.0)

Today’s Jobs:

  1. Rallyday Partners is hiring a Private Equity Associate (Denver, Colorado)

  2. A Family Office is hiring a Private Equity Associate or VP (Dallas, TX)

  3. BlackRock is hiring a Head of AI Enablement for GIP (NY)

  4. JP Morgan is hiring across their Asset management team (2027 start date, multiple roles)

  5. Invesco is hiring an Associate Credit Analyst (Atlanta)

  6. PIMCO is hiring a CRE Debt Analyst/Associate (London)

  7. Ares is hiring a Portfolio Analytics Associate (Boston)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • SK Hynix $SKHY ( ▼ 8.99% ) reported strong earnings, but lower than expected sales and profit. Operating profit of 60.5T won was below expectations of 64.2T won, further dampening AI-related excitement and sending the South Korean stock market down today.

  • Visa $V ( ▲ 1.12% ) revenue of $11.63B beat, while EPS of $3.32 beat. Results were driven by resilient consumer and business spending, with payments volume and processed transactions each rising 10% and cross-border volume up 13%, reflecting continued strength in travel and international commerce . Management raised its FY26 revenue and EPS growth outlook while highlighting momentum across commercial payments, money movement, and value-added services. The company also announced plans to cut roughly 7% of its workforce as it reinvests in AI and higher-growth initiatives.

  • Boeing $BA ( ▲ 4.76% ) revenue beat at $24.6B, while adjusted EPS missed at a loss of $0.76. Results were driven by 171 commercial aircraft deliveries, the highest quarterly total since 2018, improving 737 and 787 production, and favorable working-capital timing, which helped free cash flow turn positive at $631M. A $280M charge tied to the delayed Air Force One program widened the loss, but shares rose as stronger deliveries, improving commercial margins, and maintained FY26 free cash flow guidance of $1B to $3B reinforced confidence in Boeing’s turnaround.

  • United parcel $UPS ( ▼ 6.57% ) revenue beat at $22.8B vs. $21.81B, while EPS beat at $1.76 vs. $1.66. Results were driven by higher revenue per package, 12.5% international revenue growth, strong healthcare logistics demand, and cost savings from network automation and the completed reduction of lower-margin Amazon volume, allowing UPS to raise full-year revenue and EPS guidance. However, shares fell as operating margin compressed to 4.1% from 8.6%, management guided for flat U.S. revenue and mid-single-digit volume declines in Q3, and investors remained focused on whether higher-margin growth can offset weaker package volumes following the Amazon pullback.

  • Ford motor $FO ( 0.0% ) automotive revenue missed at $44.89B vs. $45.86B, while adjusted EPS beat at $0.42 vs. $0.35. Results were driven by resilient pricing, a stronger mix of higher-margin trucks and SUVs, operational improvements, and lower expected tariff costs, which lifted margins despite lower volumes from the Novelis aluminum disruption. Management raised FY26 adjusted EBIT and free cash flow guidance, cited an expected second-half recovery in F-Series production, and narrowed projected EV losses, while $4.2B of largely noncash EV restructuring charges drove a reported net loss.

  • PayPal $PYPL ( ▲ 4.01% ) revenue beat at $8.68B vs. $8.47B, while adjusted EPS beat at $1.38 vs. $1.28. Results were driven by 10% growth in total payment volume to $486.4B, strength at Venmo, improving transaction margins, and $1.8B of adjusted free cash flow, supporting continued buybacks and investment in checkout, mobile payments, and digital identity products. Management raised its full-year EPS and transaction-margin outlook and said it is making progress toward at least $1.5B in cost savings through AI, cloud migration, and organizational streamlining, while leaving the door open to a takeover if an offer creates more value than its turnaround plan.

  • Corning $GLW ( ▼ 12.1% ) revenue beat at $4.74B vs. $4.61B, while EPS beat at $0.78 vs. $0.76. Results were driven by continued strength in Optical Communications and AI data center demand, with fiber and networking products benefiting from hyperscaler investment. However, shares fell after Q3 revenue guidance of $4.9B–$5.0B came in slightly below expectations, raising concerns that AI optical networking growth may moderate after a strong run and weighing on the broader optical component sector.

  • JetBlue $JBLU ( ▲ 10.5% ) revenue beat at $2.70B vs. $2.69B, while EPS beat at a loss of $0.66 vs. an expected loss of $0.69. Results were driven by strong demand across cabins and geographies, higher fares, 3.2% capacity growth, and a 10.9% increase in revenue per available seat mile, allowing the airline to recapture nearly half of the fuel-cost increase. However, fuel prices rose 76% year over year and widened the quarterly loss, while management said it may raise additional aircraft-backed financing if costs remain elevated. Shares rose after JetBlue reinstated its FY26 outlook, reaffirmed $310M of JetForward benefits, and set a goal of sustained operating profitability in 2027 and at least $1.00 of EPS by 2028.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Bloomberg LP executives are in preliminary talks with investment bankers about a potential IPO or other transaction, though a company spokesperson says founder Mike Bloomberg has no plans to sell. Mike Bloomberg recently transferred some personal stock in the company to Bloomberg Philanthropies, a move that would minimize taxes if the company goes public or sells a stake. The company could be worth $80B+ per industry estimates, with Mike Bloomberg owning an estimated 88% stake.

  • CXMT Corp. soared 466% in its Shanghai debut Monday to a $484B market cap. The DRAM chipmaker is now China’s most valuable onshore-listed company and the world’s fourth-largest memory maker. CXMT raised at least $8.55B in its IPO with its global market share set to grow to 12% next year from 9% in 2025.

  • GrubMarket Inc. filed confidentially for a US IPO after being last valued at $4.5B in a February Series H. The fresh produce e-commerce platform was founded by CEO Mike Xu and has expanded through recent acquisitions including SPUD, Delta Fresh Produce, Coast Citrus Distributors, and Procurant.

  • AlgoSec is considering a London IPO and working with Barclays and other advisers. The New Jersey-based cybersecurity firm provides network security management to 2,300+ enterprise clients including AT&T, Chevron, Morgan Stanley, and Renault. The listing would add to London’s slow IPO recovery, which is drawing interest from overseas names including Dangote Cement and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • FIFA is raising up to $4.2B from external investors for a new $20B vehicle called FIFA Forward Enterprise that would house its media and commercial rights. The move marks FIFA’s first opening to outside capital, with Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Eternal among potential backers and JPMorgan running the deal.

    • As a result, UEFA is considering a World Cup boycott, and will hold an emergency meeting to discuss this week.

  • BlackRock and Meta are partnering on a $14B AI data center in El Paso, Texas. BlackRock will own 80% of the JV, financed by $12.5B of debt and $4.9B in cash, with Meta retaining 20%, contributing $2.3B in land and construction assets, and becoming the tenant. Operations would start in 2028.

  • Whataburger posted 10% Q1 earnings growth and is raising a $2.72B term loan to refinance debt. The Texas fast-food chain generated $145M in EBITDA on ~$930M in revenue. S&P assigned Whataburger a B rating, warning that consumers are cutting both visit frequency and order size while elevated beef prices squeeze margins.

  • Veritas-backed Gainwell Technologies is seeking to refinance ~$5.7B in leveraged loans, the largest software industry refinancing of 2026. The deal covers $4.2B in first-lien debt (potentially through high-yield bonds and leveraged loans) and $1.5B in second-lien debt, with JPMorgan running the deal. Gainwell, rated Caa1 by Moody’s, is part of ~$92B in tech leveraged loans maturing by 2028.

  • Ares is in talks to acquire fellow LA-based PE Investment firm Leonard Green. Ares manages $644B in AUM, but only $25B in PE strategies, while Leonard Green has $85B in AUM and had a sizeable windfall from its recent sale of SRS Distribution.

  • Koch explores a sale of Edged, the data center developer it co-founded, in a deal that values the company at more than $15Bn. Edged operates seven data centers, including a 169-megawatt Atlanta campus, and comes to market as institutional capital pours into AI infrastructure.

  • The Ellisons would owe $9.8Bn if Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery deal collapses, covering a $7Bn termination fee to Warner Bros. shareholders and reimbursement of the $2.8Bn Paramount paid to Netflix in February to abandon its own bid. Starting October 1, Paramount also owes Warner Bros. shareholders “ticking fees” of about $650M per quarter if the deal remains unclosed.

  • Aston Martin received £550mm in new debt from HPS via a new, unrestricted subsidiary, pressuring bonds that don’t have a claim. The luxury car brand has struggled with tariffs and weak demand in China.

  • Wachtell Lipton’s co-chair William Savitt departed for Gibson Dunn, along with five other partners from Wachtell’s litigation department. The Wachtell lawyer had cross-examined Elon Musk at the OpenAI trial and was reportedly “No. 1” on Gibson Dunn chair Barbara Becker’s wishlist since she took over in 2021.

  • Clearview Capital is selling Advantage Behavioral Health to nonprofit QCF/I via a $610M non-rated municipal bond sale, with Clearview and ABH’s founders set to collect $415M plus up to $100M more on performance targets. It’s QCF’s fourth and largest deal since 2024 in a growing muni-financed strategy for behavioral health assets.

  • Luxfer is being acquired by Wynnchurch Capital for $462.7M in an all-cash deal, with shareholders receiving $17.37 per share, a 31% premium to the company’s pre-strategic-review closing price of $13.29. This deal follows Luxfer’s 2024 strategic review and work with advisors on alternatives.

  • GTT raised forecasts for LNG carrier design orders from 450 to 550 over 2026-2035, citing accelerating US liquefaction investment after 84M tons per year of new LNG capacity received final investment decisions last year. GTT booked 56 new carrier orders in H1 to bring its backlog to 272 ships.

  • HBO Max is launching "HBO Max Shorts" a mobile feature designed for users to watch scenes from the HBO library in a vertical and scrollable feed; a move that follows a feature recently launched by Netflix.

  • Cracker Barrel CEO Julie Masino will step down next month, nearly a year after her “All the More” rebranding effort, including the briefly changed logo, sparked online backlash and a nearly $100M drop in company value. Former Bloomin’ Brands CEO David Deno will succeed her and join the board, as Cracker Barrel reports foot traffic down 6.7% for the quarter ended May 1.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 75% chance of the Fed holding on rates today

M&A Transactions💭 

Irish Continental Group (DUB: IR5B), a transportation and logistics company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.2B by Its Management. PJT Partners advised on the sale.

Enshrine Leasing and Infotech, provider of real estate and software services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $450.0M by Share India Securities (BOM: 540725).

Anhui Wanwei High-Tech Materials (SHG: 600063), a China-based company engaged in the development, production, and sale of polyvinyl alcohol and related products, was acquired for CNY 4.998B by Conch Group. EV/EBITDA was 12.62x and EV/Revenue was 0.66x.

Yarrow Bioscience, operator of a biopharmaceutical company, was acquired by VYNE Therapeutics through a $200.0M reverse merger. Wedbush Securities advised on the transaction.

Twin Eagle, provider of energy marketing services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.25B by Expand Energy (NAS: ESE). Lazard advised on the sale.

TRIXIE Heimtierbedarf, distributor of pet accessories and care products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 400.0M by Central Garden & Pet (NAS: CENT). Deutsche Bank advised on the sale.

Sweetwater Royalties, operator of natural resource royalty platforms, was acquired for $1.142B by Uranium Royalty (TSE: URC). Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Prince & Izant, manufacturer of brazing alloys and metal joining products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.066B by TransDigm Group (NYS: TDG). EV/Revenue was 2.96x.

Forte Biosciences (NAS: FBRX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.071B by Argenx (BRU: ARGX). EV/Cash Flow was 86.61x. Guggenheim Partners advised on the sale.

Epic Energy South Australia, operator of energy infrastructure intended to meet the energy needs of Australia, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 1.0B by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure.

Avanos Medical, a medical technology, was acquired for $1.29B by American Industrial Partners. EV/Revenue was 1.8x. J.P. Morgan and UBS advised on the sale.

American Megatrends International, developer of infrastructure management firmware, was acquired for $1.65B by Lattice Semiconductor (NAS: LSCC). EV/Revenue was 8.25x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

InfoRLife, manufacturer of pharmaceutical products, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $750.0M by BC Partners. The transaction values the company at $1.5B.

Taco Comfort Solutions, manufacturer of hydronic and water-driven products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.4B by Pentair (NYS: PNR). EV/Revenue was 2.59x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Raft, developer of AI-powered defense platforms, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $450.0M by Leonardo DRS (NAS: DRS). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Xorkets FX, developer of a digital financial trading platform, was acquired for $2.26B by Grupo Cibest, Banco de Chile, The Goldman Sachs Group, and J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Yuanli Semiconductor, developer of semiconductor technology solutions, raised over CNY 700.0M of Series A++ venture funding from Andon Health (SHE: 002432), Hokuyokaido Fund, By-Health (SHE: 300146), and SummitView Capital.

Yrefy, developer of a consumer finance platform, raised $155.3M of venture funding in the form of convertible debt from undisclosed investors.

Multiverse Computing, developer of a quantum computing software, raised EUR 500.0M of Series C venture funding led by Forgepoint Capital, Bullhound Capital, and Bnp Paribas Switzerland at a pre-money valuation of EUR 1.5B.

Antares Nuclear, manufacturer of a transportable microreactor, raised $470.0M of Series C venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by Caffeinated Capital and Paradigm.

SenseTime Medical, developer of medical diagnostic software, raised over $100.0M of Series B venture funding from Shantou Lianmei Investment Company, China Electronics, China Electronics Digital Finance Fund, and NewMargin Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $9.9B.

Dwelly, operator of a digital-first residential letting agency, raised $170.0M of Series B venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by EQT and General Catalyst at a pre-money valuation of $170.48M.

Harvey, developer of a legal technology platform, raised $200.0M of venture funding led by Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and GIC Private at a pre-money valuation of $10.8B.

Claris Bio, developer of a topical formulation technology, raised $180.0M of Series B venture funding led by Catalio Capital Management and Samsara BioCapital at a pre-money valuation of $70.0M.

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