What you Need to Know for July 24

Together With Cognitive Credit

Your Claude workflows are only as good as the data behind them.

Credit teams are building more of their workflows in Claude — but general-purpose AI doesn't have access to the data institutional credit work requires.

The Cognitive Credit Claude Connector changes that.

Purpose-built for institutional credit teams, The Cognitive Credit Claude Connector allows you to query our market-leading financial database and official disclosure libraries in natural language from the convenience of your conversations:

- Native Workspace Integration: Query thousands of global corporate bond and leveraged loan issuers, including restricted access names, natively from your Claude conversations.

- Instant Disclosure Interrogation: Surface hard-to-access disclosure such as mgmt. guidance and sentiment shifts from a vast library of official filings, prospectuses, and presentations.

- Dynamic data visualization: Generate structured credit charts, historical metric progressions, and custom peer tables on-demand inside the conversation.

- Audit-grade datasets: Build high-conviction investment cases on a foundation of 100% auditable data, with every output linked directly to source filing.

Keep the workflows your desk has already built, with better data behind them

Welcome back. Stocks got crushed today after a double whammy of oil rising (the U.S. has completed its 13th straight night of strikes against Iran and Houthi rebels targeted Saudi ships in the Red Sea), and Big Tech giants like Alphabet and Google amping up their spending efforts. We’ve been whipsawing back and forth on whether the ROI of AI spend is there, and the Kimi K3 & distillation is putting more cold water on the AI firestorm.

From what we’ve gathered, Anthropic ARR keeps shooting higher (est. at $74B+), but we know these are businesses far away from profitability. With potential commoditization, this draws into question the likelihood of a 2026 IPO and begs the question on whether some more mega raises from interconnected hyperscalers are needed.

When Micron tells you they’re chip constrained, and when the hyperscalers tell you they’re going to spend even more money in 2027, we believe them and believe that $$$ flows into the earnings of several AI-buildout themes. You just have to imagine a potential bear case, where top U.S. frontier models aren’t competitive with Chinese models and rate that possibility accordingly. Does it collapse certain pockets of the AI trade or 80% of it?

For the bears, I think Tracy at Odd Lots caught a compelling trend yesterday. Citing JP Morgan Asset Management research, they comped the recent AI selloff to the selloff in communications equipment relative to services companies from 1999-2001. JPM AM is now cautious US equities because while “picks and shovels” type companies are performing well, end demand has started to soften, which parallels the dot-com bubble.

Bull or Bear - that’s the question. Let’s get into it.

Today’s Jobs:

1. BlackRock is hiring a Head of AI Enablement for GIP (NY)

2. JP Morgan is hiring across their Asset management team (2027 start date, multiple roles)

3. Invesco is hiring an Associate Credit Analyst (Atlanta)

4. PIMCO is hiring a CRE Debt Analyst/Associate (London)

5. Ares is hiring a Portfolio Analytics Associate (Boston)

Earnings Corner 💸 

• Alphabet $GOOG ( ▼ 6.89% ) revenue beat at $119.8B vs. $116.9B, while EPS came in at $2.85 vs. $2.89. Results were driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure and services, fueling 82% Google Cloud growth alongside continued strength in Search, YouTube advertising, and Gemini adoption, while a record $514B cloud backlog highlighted demand that continues to outpace available capacity. Despite the strong quarter, shares fell after management raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195B–$205B, driving Alphabet’s first negative quarterly free cash flow since becoming a public company as it accelerated AI infrastructure spending.

• Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 14.52% ) revenue beat at $28.24B vs. est. $25.71B, while adjusted EPS missed at $0.33 vs. est. $0.51. Results were driven by higher vehicle deliveries and growth across its automotive, energy, and services businesses, but lower average selling prices, weaker regulatory credit revenue, and sharply higher AI and R&D spending for Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI infrastructure compressed margins, pushed free cash flow negative, and outweighed the stronger sales. Management said Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus remain on schedule, while continuing to invest heavily in its long-term AI, autonomy, and robotics strategy.

• IBM $IBM ( ▲ 0.43% ) revenue missed at $17.16B vs. est. $17.58B, while EPS missed at $2.93 vs. $2.97. Results were pressured as customers shifted spending toward AI infrastructure, delaying purchases of IBM's software, consulting, and mainframe offerings, while several large software deals closed later than expected, weighing on revenue despite productivity initiatives supporting margins and free cash flow. Management lowered its full year revenue growth outlook, but said customer demand is being deferred rather than lost, with many delayed deals already closing early in the third quarter while productivity initiatives continue supporting margins and free cash flow.

• AT&T $T ( ▼ 0.35% ) revenue missed at $31.60B vs. $31.67B, while EPS beat at $0.65 vs. est. $0.64. Results reflected continued fiber network expansion, strong customer retention, and increased cross selling between fiber and wireless services, driving record fiber and fixed wireless subscriber additions and higher free cash flow despite the slight revenue miss. Management reaffirmed its full year guidance and long term outlook, easing concerns over Starlink competition while maintaining its FCF targets.

• GE Vernova $GEV ( ▲ 4.69% ) revenue beat at $11.10B vs. $10.80B, while EPS missed at $2.47 vs. $3.18. Results were driven by surging demand from AI data center buildouts, as utilities and hyperscalers increased spending on gas turbines and grid equipment, driving an 88% jump in orders, a record $176B backlog, stronger pricing, and productivity gains that expanded margins, though higher offshore wind project costs and weaker wind orders weighed on earnings. Management raised its full year revenue and free cash flow guidance as strong demand across its Power and Electrification businesses continued to accelerate.

• ServiceNow $NOW ( ▼ 3.69% ) revenue beat at $3.99B vs. $3.92B, while EPS beat at $0.90. Results were driven by 24.5% subscription revenue growth as customers expanded spending on enterprise workflow software and AI offerings, strong demand for workflow, cybersecurity, and AI products, and a ninefold increase in AI agent deployments as enterprises accelerated AI adoption across their operations. cRPO rose 21% to $13.2B and renewal rates held at 98%, showing customers continued expanding long term commitments. Management slightly raised its full year subscription revenue outlook, though weaker third quarter guidance, Armis acquisition costs, and higher AI spending are expected to pressure near term margins.

• Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▼ 6.19% ) revenue missed at $8.43B vs. $8.58B, while EPS beat at $0.94. Results were driven by higher fares, record managed business revenue, strong leisure and business travel demand, and the company's commercial transformation, including assigned seating, checked bag fees, basic economy fares, and premium seating, which boosted customer spending and higher-margin revenue despite a 67% jump in fuel costs. Strong Rapid Rewards and co-branded credit card growth also supported results. Management lowered its third-quarter and full year EPS outlook as higher fuel costs and disciplined capacity growth are expected to pressure earnings, though it reaffirmed strong demand and robust revenue growth.

• Intel $INTC ( ▼ 2.33% ) revenue beat at $16.1B vs. $14.5B, while EPS beat at $0.42. Results were driven by surging AI demand for data center CPUs, 59% growth in its Data Center & AI business, stronger PC chip pricing, higher foundry revenue, and expanding margins, delivering Intel’s fastest revenue growth in nearly 15 years. Management raised third quarter guidance and increased 2026 capital expenditure plans to $20B as it expands manufacturing capacity to meet strong AI-driven demand.

• T-Mobile $TMUS ( ▼ 10.75% ) revenue missed at $22.79B vs. $22.98B, while adjusted EPS beat at $2.99. Results were driven by higher postpaid service revenue, improved pricing, low churn, strong premium plan adoption, and better than expected postpaid account additions, boosting EBITDA and free cash flow despite the slight revenue miss. Management raised its FY FCF outlook and reaffirmed its EBITDA and subscriber guidance, while noting third-quarter postpaid account additions are expected to slow due to rate plan modernization.

• Blackstone $BX ( ▲ 1.37% ) revenue beat at $5.04B vs. $4.86B, while EPS beat at $1.52 vs. $1.32. Results were driven by record fundraising, $68.3B of inflows, record AUM of $1.35T, higher fee related earnings, and strong performance fees, as AI investments across private equity, real estate, credit, data centers, and infrastructure boosted investment performance and profitability despite slower private credit realizations. Management highlighted AI as a major long-term growth driver, expanding its data center platform, AI cloud partnerships, and energy infrastructure investments.

• Union Pacific $UNP ( ▲ 4.02% ) Top and bottom line beat. Results were driven by higher freight volumes, pricing gains, stronger domestic intermodal shipments, and improved operating efficiency, with faster train speeds and lower terminal dwell times offsetting higher fuel costs. Management raised its full year EPS outlook and highlighted progress on its proposed Norfolk Southern merger.

• Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 10.54% ) revenue beat at $20.06B and EPS beat at $7.94. Results were driven by surging global demand for missiles and defense systems, higher production, a record $230.4B backlog, and strong FCF, as geopolitical tensions and increased global defense spending continued to boost orders. Mgmt. raised its FY guidance, reflecting confidence that elevated defense demand will continue.

• Comcast $CMCSA ( ▼ 6.8% ) Top and bottom line beat with results driven by strong NBCUniversal performance, as World Cup and NBA programming helped Peacock reach profitability for the first time, while 25% film revenue growth and record wireless additions offset continued broadband and cable subscriber losses, lower pricing, and softer theme park demand. Mgmt. plans to complete the media and broadband separation within about a year and paused buybacks ahead of the split.

• Honeywell $HON ( ▲ 5.7% ) revenue of $5.19B, beat estimates, while EPS of $1.95 also beat. Results were driven by strong Building Automation demand, 16% order growth, and 100 bps of margin expansion. The quarter also marked Honeywell’s first as a pure play automation company following its Aerospace spin off, with management highlighting growing demand across data centers, LNG, industrial automation, and software, supported by a ~$20B backlog and higher full year guidance.

• American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 8.35% ) reported record revenue of $16.74B, beating estimates, EPS of $0.15 also beat. Results were driven by strong travel demand, higher fares, and premium revenue, which offset nearly half of the airline’s $2.2B increase in fuel costs. However, shares fell after management cut full year guidance for the second time in three months, citing higher fuel costs from the Iran driven oil spike and warning it would further delay the airline’s turnaround and efforts to close the profitability gap with Delta and United.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Nokia $NOK ( ▼ 5.35% ) fell despite an EPS beat, record €2.8B in AI order intake, and a raised full-year profit outlook. Revenue missed estimates and restructuring charges dragged net income to €5M from €96M a year ago.

• Albertsons $ACI ( ▼ 21.64% ) cratered after a Q2 adjusted EPS miss and a full-year guidance cut, with adjusted EBITDA now expected at $3.59B versus Wall Street’s $3.89B estimate.

• Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 3.35% ) climbed after an FDA advisory panel voted 8-6 to recommend letting compounding pharmacies prepare the peptide BPC-157 more freely under prescription.

• Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF ( ▲ 15.98% ) surged after forecasting H2 profits will be the strongest in five years, with CEO Lourenco Goncalves saying steel tariffs will remain even after Trump leaves office.

• Leslie’s $LESL ( ▼ 44.81% ) tumbled after reports the pool supplier is weighing a Chapter 11 filing as creditor talks stall. The company carries $855M of long-term debt, and its $756M 2028 term loan is quoted at 39 cents on the dollar.

• NovoCure $NVCR ( ▲ 28.39% ) rocketed after Q2 revenue grew 16% on a record 5,128 active patients, and the cancer device maker raised full-year revenue guidance and now sees core profit of $0-15M from a prior loss range.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Alphabet’s Google disclosed it holds $94.1B in SpaceX shares after the company’s blockbuster IPO, with $80B under short-term sale restrictions and $14.1B locked up through Q3 2027. Alphabet’s investment gains totaled nearly $100B in Q2, mainly boosted by its early SpaceX stake and Anthropic holding.

• Tech IPOs are entering a “golden age” per Barclays’ TMT ECM head Jamie Turturici, as AI, power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, defense tech, and space companies all line up for public markets. The anticipated pipeline includes Moonshot AI, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Tech IPOs are likely to exceed last year’s 16 total, and Barclays sees ample capacity to absorb the supply given global equity market cap has climbed 40% since 2021 to $165T and $8.3T sits in money market funds on the sidelines.

• OpenAI appointed BNY CEO Robin Vince and Nubank CEO David Vélez to its board ahead of its potential 2027 IPO. Both bring deep financial services experience as OpenAI prepares for a public debut.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Trump is imposing new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries over alleged forced-labor violations. These start right as Trump’s previously temporary 10% global tariffs were set to expire, and these new measures cover 99.4% of U.S. trade. This move follows 50% tariffs on Canadian motor vehicles, alcohol, and dairy, which are set to start in mid-August.

• Jobless claims beat expectations as applications for unemployment benefits came in at 187,000 for the week ended July 18, over 10% below the forecasted 212,000. However, strategists warn the positive labor market data masks deeper vulnerabilities, with Middle East escalation raising energy prices and half of Federal Reserve officials projecting rate hikes amid broader inflation concerns.

• Blackstone investor pressure eases as requests to withdraw from its $80 billion private credit fund have fallen at the start of Q3 following elevated redemption demand in Q2. Investors requested to redeem 10% of shares in the second quarter, while the fund repurchased the customary 5% quarterly limit.

  • Following 2Q earnings, CEO Stephen Schwarzman cautioned against excessive exuberance in the AI boom, saying the firm has "carefully chosen our spots" despite significant opportunities.

• Taco Bell halted lettuce shipments to all 7,785 U.S. locations after a cyclospora outbreak linked to Taylor Farms sickened over 1,600 people across five states, reducing foot traffic by 31% the following week. Recovery could take months, though analysts expect a faster rebound than the chain's 2006-2007 E. coli crisis, which saw same-store sales tumble 11%.

• Cable One financing struggles intensify as the broadband provider seeks a $1 billion loan to fund its mandatory purchase of the remaining 55% of Mega Broadband and refinance maturing debt. Lenders are demanding yields near 12% alongside creditor protections, while Cable One’s deteriorating credit profile and stalled negotiations underscore rising financial pressure.

• Francisco Partners raises $21 billion in new funding, exceeding its $18 billion target. The technology-focused private equity firm completed the first major software-focused PE fundraise since February's AI-driven market selloff. Co-founder Dipanjan Deb argued that while AI will create “winners and losers” in software, valuations have overcorrected and present compelling opportunities for buyout investors.

• Apple’s new device leasing program, “Apple Upgrade,” launches July 28 with Klarna as the financial backer. Users pay monthly for iPhones and Apple Watches over 24 months (or Macs and iPads over 36 months) and can pay off early, upgrade to a new model, or return at the end of the term. Apple will also discontinue its current iPhone Upgrade Program and standard financing.

• Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Jim Banks introduced a bipartisan resolution calling on the FTC to investigate antitrust violations in the firetruck industry after decades of private equity rollups. Costs have more than doubled and delivery times now stretch up to five years, with Rev Group, Pierce, and Rosenbauer controlling ~80% of the market.

• Private equity is piling into Italy’s northern factory belt as investors hunt for “HALO” investments (heavy-asset, low-obsolescence companies resistant to AI disruption). KKR, Ares, and Evercore have all opened Milan offices, and Italy’s PE deals rose 16% YoY in 2025 while the UK, France, and Germany all slowed. Family-owned manufacturers along the A4 corridor from Turin to Venice are the prime targets, boosted by Italy’s productivity edge over Germany and France.

• Uplift Investors closed its fourth law-firm deal since launching a management services organization in January. The PE firm’s Orion Legal MSO circumvents restrictions on outside investment in law firms by separating non-legal operations into a separately owned entity, a structure gaining traction across the legal industry.

• Mark Cuban-led Harbinger Sports Partners Fund is buying a minority stake in MLB’s Athletics, its first investment since securing $450M in commitments earlier this year. The fund targets stakes of up to $150M in MLB, NBA, and NFL franchises, and General Partner Jonathan Mariner (former MLB CFO) says MLB teams are undervalued and at an “inflection point.”

• Leicester City F.C. considers sale after two years of financial and athletic decline. Thai-based King Power, owner of the former Premier League champions, has hired Citigroup to evaluate a potential sale following the club’s £71.1 million loss and back-to-back relegations to the third tier of the English league.

M&A Transactions💭 

Cross Country Healthcare, a healthcare workforce solution company, was acquired for $416.0M by Knox Lane. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Caruna.in, manufacturer of automotive seats intended for seniors and wheelchair users, was acquired for $5.7B by Iberdrola (MAD: IBE).

Caruna, operator of an electrical distribution network, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 2.0B by Iberdrola (MAD: IBE).

Aligned Data Centers, operator of data centers, was acquired for $40.0B by Blackrock, Nvidia, Microsoft, xAI, MGK, Kuwait Investment Authority, Temasek Holdings, and Global Infrastructure Partners. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

The Portfolio of Three Hospitals in Lisbon, Porto, and Albufeira in Portugal of Praemia REIM was acquired by Healthcare Activos Management for $285.38M. 

Greenbacker Renewable Energy Company, provider of renewable energy investment services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $375.0M by MN8 Energy (NYS: MNX). Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Copra, producer of coconut-based food ingredients, was acquired for $175.0M by The Vita Coco Company (NAS: COCO). EV/Revenue was 1.75x. Whipstitch Capital advised on the sale.

Cliramitug, a portfolio of disease royalties, was acquired for $300.0M by Royalty Pharma. The company will receive a contingent payout of $175.0M upon the achievement of certain clinical and regulatory milestones. As part of the transaction in the first quarter of 2027, Royalty Pharma will provide another $125.0M in cash to Neurimmune. Chestnut Partners advised on the sale.

Biolife Solutions (NAS: BLFS), a life sciences company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.528B by Repligen (NASA: RGEN). EV/Revenue was 15.32x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Astrodyne TDI, manufacturer of tailored power electronics, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.4B by TE Connectivity (NYS: TEL). EV/Revenue was 5.6x.

Amber River Group, provider of financial advisory services, was acquired for GBP 900.0M by Stone Point Capital. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

PBCO Financial, a bank holding company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $167.3M by Northrim Bancorp (NAS: NRIM). D.A. Davidson Companies advised on the sale.

Domo (NAS: DOMO), provides a cloud-based platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $400.034M by Progress Software (NAS: PRGS). Jefferies advised on the sale.

Nestle Waters France, operator of a drinking water company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 3.0B by Platinum Equity. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Neptronic, manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning products, was acquired for CAD 605.0M by SPX Technologies (NYS: SPXC).

ArisGlobal, developer of AI-powered life sciences software platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.0B by Dassault Systemes (PAR: DSY). The company will receive a contingent payout of $200.0M upon the completion of future performance terms. EV/Revenue was 11.43x. Evercore Group and Jefferies advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Crystalys Therapeutics, operator of a biopharmaceutical company, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding led by Frazier Healthcare Partners.

Cathedral, a company in stealth mode, raised $160.0M of venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $1.24B.

Candid Health, developer of an AI-powered revenue cycle management automation platform, raised $120.0M of Series D venture funding led by Sixth Street Partners.

Atoms, operator of a portfolio of physical automation companies, raised $1..7BB of venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 70% chance of an Anthropic IPO by year-end.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

IPOs have underperformed the market since 2019 (Apollo)

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Join beehiiv: Looking to start your own newsletter? Join beehiiv through us and you’ll get 30 days free and 3 months of a 20% discount.

Join our Referral Program and Gain WSR Investing Club Access ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket