What you Need to Know for July 22

The Looming SpaceX Lockup Period, Distillation Won't Fly in the U.S.

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HY Harry
July 22, 2026

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Welcome back!

We had a nice recovery in the markets yesterday, as the AI trade bounced back following Kimi K3 worries. Also, earnings have been pretty solid thus far. We’ve got some massive names with Alphabet and Tesla coming up though; plus we’ll see if IBM gets taken to the doghouse again.

Notably too on the Kimi K3 side, Scott Bessent will look into whether Chinese models have been distilled from American models. Travis Kalanick called it out here. If there is illicit distillation of frontier models, then Bessent has opened the door to sanctions. The White House also announced it will recommend redirecting billions in research funds away from colleges and towards AI. On another note, Sam Altman announced last night that its AI models went rogue and breached Hugging Face during a test.

Oil prices are on the move higher after Marco Rubio said Iran is “not serious” about peace talks.

This is a busy week, so let’s get right into it:

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: Alphabet, Tesla, Texas Instruments, IBM, AT&T, Philip Morris, GE Vernova, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, Moody’s, CSX, United Rentals, Wyndham

  • Thursday: Intel, RTX, T-Mobile, Thermo Fisher, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Lazard, Coca-Cola, Deckers Outdoor, Comcast, Honeywell, Nasdaq, SAP SE, American Airlines, TotalEnergies, Tractor Supply, Albertsons, Harley-Davidson

  • Friday: American Express, Verizon, Charter Communications, NextEra Energy

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims (212,000)

  • Friday: S&P flash U.S. services PMI (5.11), S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (54.4), New home sales (600,000)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Ryanair $RYAAY ( ▼ 0.19% ) revenue missed at $5.10B vs. est. $5.11B, while EPS missed at $1.19 vs. $1.25. Results were pressured by a 6% decline in average fares as travelers delayed bookings amid Middle East conflict and economic uncertainty, while higher unhedged fuel costs more than doubled, outweighing 6% passenger traffic growth. Management said it is too early to provide full year guidance, expects summer fares to remain lower year over year, and believes weaker competitors exiting the market could reduce capacity and support future pricing.

  • Domino's $DPZ ( ▼ 0.8% ) revenue beat at $1.19B vs. est. $1.18B, while EPS missed at $4.07 vs. est. $4.17. Revenue growth was driven by a 6.5% increase in supply-chain sales, fueled by higher franchisee order volumes and a 2.2% increase in food-basket pricing. However, weaker consumer spending led to just 0.1% U.S. same-store sales growth and a 0.1% decline internationally, while lower average checks and higher food, labor, insurance, and operating costs weighed on profitability. Management maintained its outlook, continued share repurchases, and said it is focused on driving traffic and improving supply chain profitability.

  • Novartis AG $NVS ( ▲ 2.88% ) Revenue beat at $14.4B vs. est. $13.9B, while EPS beat at $2.41 vs. $2.20. Results were driven by strong demand for growth brands including Kisqali, Kesimpta, Scemblix, Pluvicto, Leqvio, and Cosentyx, which offset a sharp decline in Entresto sales from U.S. generic competition after the drug lost patent exclusivity. Productivity gains and cost controls also helped keep core operating income flat despite higher investment and launch spending. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance for low single digit sales growth and a single digit decline in core operating income, while continuing to invest in its pipeline, new product launches, and share repurchases.

  • Charles Schwab $SCHW ( ▼ 2.52% ) Revenue beat at $7.1B vs. $7.0B and EPS beat at $1.62. Results were driven by record client trading activity, with daily average trades reaching 11.9M, a 28% increase in trading revenue, and stronger net interest income as higher client cash, margin balances, and lending activity improved spreads. Asset management fees also rose as client assets climbed to $13.08T and Schwab added $120B in core net new assets. Management raised its full year revenue growth outlook to 17.5%–18.5%, while continuing to invest in wealth management, lending, crypto, and AI tools despite higher near term expenses.

  • 3M $MMM ( ▲ 7.32% ) revenue beat at $6.50B vs $6.39B and EPS beat at $2.40 vs. $2.25. Results were driven by stronger industrial and electronics demand, pricing gains, double digit growth in China, and productivity initiatives that reduced costs and expanded margins, as the company's multiyear turnaround continued to improve profitability and operational execution. Management raised full year guidance.

  • General Motors $GM ( ▲ 4.91% ) revenue beat at $48.03B vs $46.61B, while EPS beat at $3.57 vs. $3.19. Results were driven by strong North American demand for pickups and SUVs, disciplined pricing and lower incentives, lower warranty costs, and a $1B–$1.5B reduction in EV losses, which helped expand margins despite lower U.S. vehicle sales and ongoing tariff and commodity pressures. Management raised full year profit and automotive free cash flow guidance as lower EV losses and cost improvements continued to offset tariff costs.

  • Alaska Air $ALK ( ▼ 1.26% ) revenue missed at $4.07B vs. $4.09B, while adjusted EPS beat at a loss of $0.92 vs. an expected loss of $0.97. Results were pressured by an 85% increase in fuel costs and weaker passenger revenue trends, which outweighed lower non-fuel costs and strong growth in loyalty and cargo revenue. Management highlighted progress integrating Hawaiian Airlines but lowered Q3 guidance, reflecting continued fuel and demand pressure.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc. is seeking to raise up to $1.09B in its IPO, pricing 43.5M shares at $21-$25 for up to a ~$8B valuation. The Blackstone-backed sandwich chain’s valuation comes in well below the ~$12B initially targeted, with the offering including 29.7M shares from existing shareholders including Blackstone and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and JPMorgan are leading the offering under NYSE ticker JMKE.

  • Moonshot AI, the firm behind Kimi K3, is set to open talks in August on a final pre-IPO round at up to $50B, with the Chinese AI lab expected to close its current $31.5B round in the coming days. The back-to-back raises mark the last capital infusion before Moonshot’s Hong Kong IPO as soon as this year, with existing backers including Tencent, Meituan, and China Mobile.

  • Biotech IPOs are the standout story of the 2026 IPO market, delivering a 55% weighted average return versus a 4.4% loss for the broader market. Over $5B has been raised this year (3× 2025), which has been fueled by a 13% Nasdaq Biotech Index gain, stable regulatory backdrop, and trial data breakthroughs. Standouts include Veradermics (up 500%+ since February, best US IPO of any sector), Hemab Therapeutics (doubled since May), and Parabilis Medicines ($770.6M debut, largest biotech IPO ever).

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • SpaceX is set for one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history. Up to $116B of stock becomes eligible for sale starting August 6, with the tradable share count soaring from ~639M today to 5.33B by early December. Elon Musk’s 7.8B shares stay locked for just over a year from the June IPO.

  • Trump announces a 100% tariff on generic drugs taking effect August 2028 unless manufacturers relocate production to the US within two years, with the levy doubling to 200% in August 2029. The move builds on an April 2025 Section 232 national security probe of the industry and comes up as Trump leans on drug affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms.

  • Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, targeting motor vehicles, alcohol, and dairy over alleged trade discrimination, due to take effect 30 days after signing and apply regardless of existing free-trade agreements. Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Canada to respond “tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar.”

  • Novo Nordisk sues Eli Lilly over ads, saying it relies on outdated Wegovy dosing comparisons. Eli Lilly cited 33 vs 50lb weight loss gaps between the two companies, while Novo argues that a fairer comparison of the higher-dose Wegovy (47lb average weight loss) is comparable to Lilly’s Zepbound (48lb). Novo is seeking an immediate halt to the ads, corrective advertising, and lost profits, as Lilly overtakes Novo in sales in the obesity-drug market.

  • The Trump administration froze over $1B in Medicaid funding to California ($867.5M) and Minnesota ($199M), citing suspected fraud, which includes $3M in “documentation gap” claims, $42M to previously flagged individuals in Minnesota, and a 24% two-year rise in California in-home care compared to a 12% national average.

  • Paramount Skydance is ordered to pause its $110Bn Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition through August 3 after a California-led coalition of states argued the deal would create a media giant controlling 27% of the film distribution market. If closing slips past September 30, Paramount will owe Warner Bros. shareholders a 25-cent-per-share daily “ticking fee,” or about $7M a day.

  • BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and Abu Dhabi’s MGX just closed their $40B acquisition of Aligned Data Centers and will invest an additional $5B to expand capacity. Aligned is a Texas-based data center developer with 6.4+ GW of operational and planned capacity across the US and South America.

  • GoldenTree closed its $2.75B Private Credit Fund II - 40% of its commitments have been deployed, with a current net IRR of 20%. Partners and employees committed $50mm to the fund.

  • KKR hired former Manulife CEO Roy Gori as a senior advisor to help expand its insurance business across Asia Pacific and other international markets. Gori will work alongside KKR’s senior leadership and its Global Atlantic insurance arm.

  • SoftBank’s record $40B bridge loan for its OpenAI investment will generate over $100M in fees for underwriters JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, roughly matching what lead banks earned on SpaceX’s IPO (the largest debut ever). Other banks in smaller roles expect $25-70M each. SoftBank’s OpenAI exposure now tops $60B, and the firm’s total debt has reached ~$122B as CEO Masayoshi Son goes “all in” on the ChatGPT maker.

  • Nike will cut off thousands of online distributors in China starting in January and shift sales to its own website/app plus Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin storefronts. The move aims to reverse a 30% decline in China sales over the last five years, though BNP Paribas warned it could echo Nike’s earlier US wholesaler cut that backfired.

  • Miami surpasses New York in living expenses for the first time, with South Florida’s CPI up 36% since 2019 and property taxes up 62%. Home insurance premiums average $8,292 (4x New York’s), while housing costs in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach average 5% above New York’s metro areas.

M&A Transactions💭 

Landvision, developer of smart home hardware, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by MKD Technologies (NAS: MKDW) for $240.0M.

WildFire Energy, operator of an energy exploration and production company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.06B by Magnolia Oil & Gas (NYS: MGY). Bank of America and Jefferies advised on the sale.

The Pep Boys, operator of automobile maintenance and supply stores, was acquired for $1.03B by Icahn Enterprises (NAS: IEP).

Prevalon Energy, provider of energy storage services, was acquired for $365.0M by Nextpower (NAS: NXT).

PolyPeptide Group (SWX: PPGN), an independent contract development and manufacturing organization, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CHF 1.46B by Samsung Biologics (KRX: 207940). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Personalis (NAS: PSNL), a provider of genomic sequencing and analytics solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Tempus AI (NAS: TEM). EV/Revenue was 23.25x.

Lyons Magnus, producer of plant-based functional beverages and fruit and flavor ingredient solutions, was acquired for $1.0B by Truelink Capital. Evercore Group and William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

LXP Industrial Trust (NYS: LXP), a real estate investment trust principally involved in the ownership of equity and debt investments, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.2B by Brookfield Asset Management (TSE: BAM) and CPP Investments. EV/EBITDA was 14.5x and EV/Revenue was 14.97x. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Futronic, manufacturer of automotive electronic components and drivetrain components, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $720.0M by Blackstone.

Eurofins Scientific (PAR: ERF) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Life Sciences Testing Services Business of Element Materials Technology for $400.0M. EV/Revenue was 2.67x.

The Diabetes Health Business Division of AdaptHealth (NAS: AHCO) was acquired by Cardinal Health (NYS: CAH) for $235.0M.

Utz Brands (NYS: UTZ), a manufacturer of branded salty snacks, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.26B by Rice and Lissette Family and Intersnack Golding Gesellschaft Fur Auslandsbeteiligungen mbH. EV/EBITDA was 10.55x and EV/Revenue was 0.87x. Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Mitie Group (LON: MTO), provides strategic outsourcing services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 3.1B by OCS Group. EV/EBITDA was 10.76x and EV/Revenue was 0.55x.

Dr Mohammed bin Rashed Al-Faqih & Partners, provider of medical services, was acquired for SAR 1.6B by Fakeeh Care Group (SAU: 4017).

The Superior Group, provider of electrical construction and engineering services, was acquired for $1.65B by MasTec (NYS: MTZ). EV/EBITDA was 6.6x and EV/Revenue was 0.97x. UBS advised on the sale.

Northfield Bancorp (NAS: NFBK), the holding company for Northfield Bank, was acquired for $597.0M by Columbia Bank (NAS: CLBK). EV/Net Income was 125.34x and EV/Revenue was 3.73x. Raymond James advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Twenty, developer of a cyber-warfighting platform, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding led by Accel at a pre-money valuation of $1.07B.

Sereact, developer of an AI based foundational software layer, raised $116.0M of Series B venture funding led by Headline.

Neo Security, developer of collaborative conversational AI platform, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding from Bessemer Venture Partners, Craft Ventures, and Andreessen Horowitz.

Meshy, developer of a three-dimensional model generation platform, raised $400.0M of Series B venture funding from Source Code Capital, BAI Capital, and HSG at a pre-money valuation of $980.0M.

Brookfield Asset Management and Healthpeak Properties formed a $2.1B joint venture to operate an outpatient medical building portfolio.

CuspAI, developer of an AI-powered materials discovery platform, raised GBP 334.0M of Series B venture funding led by New Enterprise Associates and Kleiner Perkins at a pre-money valuation of GBP 1.57B.

Humanoid, operator of a humanoid robotics company, raised $152.0M of Series A venture funding led by Prime Movers Lab at a pre-money valuation of $1.2B.

Augustus, operator of an AI-intelligent bank, raised $180.0M of Series B venture funding led by Tiger Global Management at a pre-money valuation of $820.0M.

Ant International, operator of a cross-border digital payment and financial technology platform, raised approximately $1.2B of Series A venture funding led by Ant Group and Alibaba Group (HKG: 09988).

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 39% chance of LeBron returning to the Heat, with a 33% chance of returning to the Cavs.

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