What you Need to Know for July 15th

IBM's Selloff tells you everything you need to know about corporate spend

Author

HY Harry
July 15, 2026

Welcome back!

The market was left with a shocker yesterday after $IBM ( ▼ 25.21% ) dramatically fell after preannouncing ugly numbers where they shared there’s client “capex reprioritization” where clients moved towards AI-related purchases and cybersecurity initiatives that were likely driven by last month’s Anthropic Mythos talk.

This puts the SaaSpocalypse back in the driver’s seat as clearly some software and corporate spend is less important than scaling up AI capabilities and investing in order to mitigate evolving cyber concerns. Clearly, this is bullish cyber which had a phenomenal day, just look at $CRWD ( ▲ 12.14% ) , while the AI & Memory names recovered. The market also recovered broadly after better than expected inflation numbers. Meanwhile, the South Korean market has been an absolute rollercoaster this year, with the KOSPI falling -25% from its high, and more and more horror stories about margin calls from retail investors.

It’s getting increasingly written about, but with yesterday’s IBM news, it’s becoming more important to think about how focus on AI-related investment may crowd out spend in other categories. The spillover and second-order effects of this are still early, but likely coming sooner rather than later.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, The Bank Of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services, Elevance, Cintas, United Airlines

  • Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, UnitedHealth Group, GE Aerospace, Netflix, Abbott Laboratories, State Street, Citizens Financial,

  • Friday: The Travelers Companies, Truist Financial

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: Producer price index (-0.2%), Core PPI (0.3%), PPI y/y, Empire State manufacturing survey (9.4), Fed Beige Book

  • Thursday: U.S. retail sales (0.2%), Retail sales minus autos (0.0%), Initial jobless claims (218,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (9.5), Pending home sales (-0.1%), Business inventories (0.3%)

  • Friday: Import price index (0.8%), Import price index minus fuel, Housing starts (1.31M), Building permits (1.41M), Industrial production (0.3%), Capacity utilization (76.3%), Consumer sentiment prelim (50.5), Home builder confidence index (35)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • JPMorgan Chase $JPM ( ▲ 2.5% ) Revenue beat at $57.0B vs. $55.2B, while EPS beat at $7.70 vs. $5.64. Results were driven by a sharp rebound in capital markets activity, as investment banking fees rose 30% on stronger IPO and M&A activity while equity trading surged 86% to a record amid elevated market volatility. The quarter also benefited from a $4.6B one-time gain on the sale of Visa shares and another $1B in equity investment gains, though underlying operating trends remained strong with higher net interest income and loan growth. Management also raised full year net interest income guidance.

  • Bank of America $BAC ( ▲ 1.88% ) Revenue beat at $31.7B vs. $30.7B, while EPS beat at $1.21 vs. $1.13. Results were driven by broad based strength across the business as higher net interest income from loan and deposit growth, a 50% jump in investment banking fees driven by stronger IPO, debt underwriting, and capital markets activity, and a 70% surge in equity trading revenue from elevated client activity and market volatility more than offset macro uncertainty. Management also highlighted resilient consumer spending, continued broad based commercial loan growth, and ongoing AI-driven business investments, while guiding toward the high end of its full-year net interest income outlook.

  • Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 9.0% ) Revenue beat at $20.34B vs. $16.49B, while EPS beat at $20.98 vs. $14.47. Results were driven by a sharp rebound in capital markets activity, as investment banking fees rose 55% on stronger M&A and AI-driven equity underwriting, while equities trading revenue jumped 72% to a record on elevated client activity and market volatility. Broad based strength across Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management, along with the firm's highest investment banking backlog in five years, reflects continued momentum in dealmaking and capital raising.

  • Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 2.72% ) results were driven by strength across its core businesses, as stronger client activity boosted wealth and investment banking fees, markets revenue rose 24%, net interest income grew 5%, and stronger loan growth, improved credit quality, and disciplined expenses supported operating leverage. However, shares fell after management reaffirmed rather than raised full-year guidance, despite reporting a stronger than expected quarter.

  • Citigroup $C ( ▼ 5.29% ) revenue beat at $24.8B vs. $24.1B, while EPS beat at $3.15 vs. $2.74. The company delivered its highest quarterly revenue in a decade, driven by strong capital markets activity as elevated market volatility boosted equities trading 45%, investment banking fees rose 44%, and higher net interest income and wealth management revenue added to the strength. However, shares fell after management kept its full-year profitability target unchanged despite the strong quarter and said it may accelerate investments, raising concerns that higher expenses could weigh on profitability.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Shein Global Holdings Ltd. is targeting a $2-3B Hong Kong IPO as soon as August at a valuation of ~$30B, roughly a third of its prior peak of over $90B. The listing follows China Securities Regulatory Commission approval on Friday and marks Shein’s third attempt at going public after failed US and London IPOs.

  • DeepSeek is preparing for a Chinese IPO filing as soon as this year. The AI pioneer is raising a fresh round targeting at least 10B yuan (~$1.4B) just weeks after closing a record $7B financing at a $50B valuation from backers including Tencent and CATL. The new round is targeting a pre-money valuation of at least $71B, up from the $50B set in the earlier round.

  • Memory chip giant CXMT Corp. priced its Shanghai STAR Board IPO at 8.66 yuan per share for up to a $9.8B raise (66.6B yuan), roughly double the previous estimate. The company formally known as ChangXin Memory Technologies sold up to 7.69B shares including overallotment.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • June CPI rose 3.5% annually, below the 3.8% forecast, with the index falling a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month. Energy prices fell 5.7%, and shelter costs cooled to 0.1% growth. Core inflation held flat at 2.6% annually versus a 2.9% forecast, driving traders to trim the odds of a September Fed hike to 63% from over 75%.

  • Apollo is muscling in on Wall Street's turf, originating a record $309Bn of loans in 2025 and landing the largest private credit deal on record this spring in Broadcom and Anthropic’s $35Bn AI-related debt. The firm’s insurance arm, Athene, which holds $397Bn in assets, now drives 62% of earnings.

  • Private capital is filling a financing gap left by governments that can no longer fund large-scale industrial capex as the firm’s AUM topped $1T in May.

  • Francisco Partners is in late-stage talks to buy Thoma Bravo’s 55% stake in Command Alkon for up to $1.3Bn. Command Alkon’s largest customer, Germany’s Heidelberg Materials, holds the remaining 45% after buying in from Thoma Bravo in 2021 at a $1.7Bn valuation.

  • A provision banning private equity from buying additional single-family homes is now federal law, part of the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that took effect after Trump declined to sign or veto it. The law follows reporting that over 25% of metro Atlanta’s single-family rentals, or 72,000 homes, are owned by large corporate investors.

  • The U.A.E gained expanded access to US AI chips after aiding US strikes against Iran, with a Commerce Department rule change moving the country into the same export tier as Europe, South Korea, and India. The shift lets G42 buy Nvidia chips freely for at least nine months and removes license requirements for Microsoft and OpenAI data centers.

  • Clearlake Capital partnered with Databricks and West Monroe to build an AI-enabled data platform covering deal origination, due diligence, fund operations, and portfolio company transformation. Clearlake will also roll out Databricks’ capabilities to its portfolio companies through its Clearlake AI Labs initiative.

  • NY Governor Kathy Hochul is signing the nation’s first state-level data center moratorium, pausing new permits for up to a year while regulators develop energy and environmental standards. Existing permits are unaffected, and some exceptions apply for smaller research, education, and healthcare facilities.

  • Uber is in advanced talks to acquire Delivery Hero at a reported €40 per share, valuing the German food-delivery giant at over €12B ($13.7B). Uber already holds a direct 24.99% stake plus derivatives bringing its total interest to ~36.8%. Uber previously bid €33 per share, and the deal would help it compete with DoorDash’s Wolt unit in Europe.

  • Seidler Equity is in talks to sell its stake in Rawlings Sporting Goods, the 139-year-old maker of baseball apparel and equipment. The Company could be valued at $2Bn, a jump from the $395mm 2018 purchase price.

  • TransDigm walked away from its $960M takeover of Stellant Systems after the DOJ threatened to sue and block the deal, citing risk to military supply competition and a monopoly concern on radar parts. This followed weeks of failed settlement talks and would have been just the second merger challenge under Trump’s presidency.

  • Williams Cos. secured a $5.34B investment from a Blackstone Credit & Insurance-led group (with Apollo and KKR) for a 49% non-controlling stake in five power plants being built to supply data centers. Williams retains 51% and operational control, and the group’s investment includes $900M paid upfront to Williams plus $4.4B toward future construction costs.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

RBC is expanding its credit derivatives trading as AI CDS trading grows

Hyperscaler CDS activity has rapidly grown since 4Q (via BBG)

M&A Transactions💭 

Vita Inclinata, developer of a rescue hoisting system, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired through a $450.0M reverse merger by Tavia Acquisition. Cohen & Company and EarlyBird Capital advised on the transaction.

Sprng Energy, developer of solar and wind power, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.8B by Aditya Birla Renewables.

Gull New Zealand, operator of fuel pumps, was acquired for NZD 572.0M by Allegro Funds. The transaction values the company at an estimated NZD 1.14B.

FloWorks International, distributor of flow control products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.6B by Ferguson (NYS: FERG). Jefferies and Solomon Partners advised on the sale.

The Sevasemten and Muscular Dystrophy Business of Edgewise Therapeutics (NANS: EWTX) was acquired by Servier for an estimated $2.65B. The consideration consists of $1.55B in upfront cash consideration and up to $1.1B in additional milestone payments. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Connacher Oil and Gas, operator of a natural resource company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 1.277B by Greenfire Resources (NYS: GFR). Tudor, Pickering Holt & Company Securities advised on the sale.

Astrobotic, developer of space robotic technologies, was acquired for $300.0M by Voyager (NYS: VOYG). Stifel advised on the sale.

Xoma, a biotechnology royalty aggregator, was acquired for $870.555M by Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NAS: LGND). EV/EBITDA was 17.36x and EV/Revenue was 113.75x. H.C. Wainwright & Co. and Leerink Partners advised on the sale.

Traverse Midstream Partners, operator of an investment platform, was acquired for $2.25B by 2PointZero Group. The transaction was supported by $1.15B of debt financing.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Global Print Business of Thomson Reuters through an estimated $500.0M LBO. The transaction values the company at $980.39M. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Esperion Therapeutics (NAS: ESPR), a commercial-stage biotechnology company, was acquired for $1.45B by ARCHIMED. EV/EBIDTA was 18.27x and EV/Revenue was 3.47x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Holiday Robotics, developer of AI-powered humanoid robots, raised KRW 155.0B of Series A venture funding led by IMM Investment at a pre-money valuation of KRW 800.0B. 

Helsing, developer of AI driven autonomous systems, raised $1.8B of Series E venture funding led by Dragoneer Investment Group and Lightspeed Venture Partners at a pre-money valuation of $16.2B.

TerraFirma, developer of a construction technology system, raised $115.0M of venture funding from SpaceX, Anduril Industries, and Hadrian. Bain Capital Ventures and Kleiner Perkins also participated in the round.

PixVerse, developer of an AI-powered video generation platform, raised $439.0M of Series C venture funding led by CDH Investments at a pre-money valuation of $1.56B.

Limx Dynamics, developer of AI-driven humanoid robots, raised nearly $200.0M of venture funding from Shangqi Capital, Lens Technology, and Co-Stone Capital.

Cover Genius, developer of an insurance distribution platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from Vista Equity Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.8B.

Chai Discovery, developer of an AI-based molecular interactions platform, raised $400.0M of Series C venture funding led by Dimension, Index Ventures, Kliener Perkins, and Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $3.4B.

Alsphere Technology, developer of ai video generation software, raised over CNY 2.98B of Series C+ venture funding led by Alibaba Group.

BRINC, developer of indoor and outdoor drones, raised $125.0M of venture funding led by Motorola Solutions Venture Capital.

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