What you Need to Know for July 1

Fable is coming back. Our 2H26 Hot Takes.

Author

HY Harry
July 01, 2026

Welcome back!

The Nasdaq had a great day yesterday, capping off a nearly 32% return in 2Q26! YTD, we’re now looking at the S&P up 9.3% while the Nasdaq is up 20% on the year. But hey, Sandisk is literally up 726% YTD, so the biggest AI bottleneck winners have compounded at a monstrous rate.

Our 2H26 predictions: We expect some choppiness in the markets over interest rate direction debates, crypto to remain beat up, private credit redemptions remaining elevated, frontier models to continue advancing, AI bottlenecks not slowing down, sustained pain in software, the Hyperscalers to eventually get some sustained love later in the year, and another geopolitical shock event at some point.

The big news from last night - Anthropic is getting their export controls on Fable 5 and Mythos 5 lifted. The models have been updated to “ensure alignment across the US Government” according to Howard Lutnick.

As a reminder, we will next talk on Sunday, enjoy the July 4th everyone! 250 baby!

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: General Mills, FactSet

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: ADP employment (110,000), S&P final manufacturing PMI (55.7), ISM manufacturing (53.8), Construction spending (0.2%), Auto sales

  • Thursday: U.S. unemployment report (118,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.8%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages y/y (3.5%), Initial jobless claims (221,000), Factory orders (1.1%)

  • Friday: July 4th holiday

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.04% ) revenue beat at $10.97B vs. $10.86B, while EPS beat at $0.20 vs. $0.13. Results were driven by improving North American demand, with wholesale sales rising 4% as retailers increased orders for newer performance products, while an expected $986M tariff refund boosted gross margins by 8.9 percentage points and added roughly $0.52 per share to earnings. However, Greater China sales fell 12% and Nike Direct sales declined 7%, as weak demand for sportswear and Jordan products continued to pressure full-price sell-through and discounting. Management reiterated that earnings will remain roughly flat through the first half of FY27 as its turnaround progresses unevenly across markets and product categories.

  • AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 18.76% ) flew after a strong Q4 earnings beat, as revenue more than doubled to $641.6M vs. $558M and an EPS beat at $1.84 vs. $1.47, driven by surging demand for drones and counter-drone systems. A 65% increase in funded backlog and the Pentagon's proposed $75B drone budget for 2027 reinforced the company's strong growth outlook.

  • Constellation Brands $STZ ( ▼ 0.41% ) revenue beat at $2.43B vs. $2.39B, while EPS beat at $3.43 vs. $3.26. Results were driven by continued strength in the core beer business, as Modelo and Corona remained resilient, with beer sales up 2.2% and organic sales up 3%, while pricing, favorable mix, and stronger beer margins more than offset higher commodity costs and weakness from the company's ongoing exit of lower-margin wine and spirits brands. Management maintained FY27 guidance, reflecting expectations for a cautious consumer backdrop and continued cost pressures.

On The Move 📈 📉

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IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Nutrabolt is preparing for a US IPO that could raise up to $1B, with the Austin-based energy drink and supplements maker last valued at $2.88B in a 2022 deal that gave Keurig Dr Pepper a 30% stake. The company behind C4, XTEND, and Cellucor expects to exceed $1B in annual revenue, and JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and BofA are leading the offering.

  • SK Hynix filed its F-1 amendment for a Nasdaq IPO under ticker SKHY. The South Korean memory chipmaker is targeting a ~$29.4B raise (45.45T won) and a July 10 trading debut. Proceeds will fund 45.5T won in Korean production facility capex and the acquisition of EUV scanners worth ~11.9T won. BofA, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are leading the offering.

  • California-based vitamins and supplements retailer iHerb is preparing for a ~$500M US IPO that could come as soon as this year. The company recently acquired Kroger’s Vitacost to expand its US presence and is taking a second swing at going public after abandoning a confidential 2021 IPO filing in 2022. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup are leading the offering.

  • Bending Spoons SpA priced its IPO above the marketed range at $29 per share for a $18.4B valuation, raising $1.68B ahead of its Nasdaq debut. The acquirer of struggling software businesses sold 34.4M shares while backers including Baillie Gifford sold another 23.57M. Shares will trade under $BSP, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Allen & Co. leading the offering.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • US drafts ban on Chinese solar inverters over grid security fears: The FCC is working on restrictions targeting new foreign inverter models, devices that connect solar projects and batteries to the grid, after rogue communication devices were found in some Chinese-made units in US grids. The move follows Europe’s May ban on Chinese inverters from publicly funded energy projects.

  • PE fund investors turn to preferred equity deals as distributions dry up: With buyout firms holding assets longer and distributions at multi-year lows, LP-side structured transactions increased from $6B in 2024 to $9B in 2025.

  • PE firms sit on 13,325 unsold US companies even as Wall Street’s deal volume sets records: Sponsor-led M&A volume has fallen 11% YTD and remains down 25% vs. the 2021-2022 peak because of the stalemate between GPs holding out for better valuations and LPs demanding liquidity. At the current exit pace, it would take 11 years to clear existing inventory, up from the 9-year estimate last fall.

  • A large Burger King franchisee ceded ownership to lenders after missing an August interest payment. GPS Hospitality had loaded up on high-yield debt in 2021 to fund a preferred equity buyback and has been squeezed by high labor costs, weather exposure, and softening consumer demand.

  • Strategy launched a plan to sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin: The move comes as STRC, its flagship preferred stock, drifted 25%+ below its $100 par value, prompting the firm to raise dividends for an eighth time to 12% and approve $1B in preferred stock buybacks.

  • Bob Iger and Josh Kushner are exploring a bid for a Las Vegas NBA team: The majority bid would be partly funded through Thrive Eternal, Kushner’s permanent capital vehicle focused on iconic cultural assets. Kushner would likely need to sell his stake in the Miami Heat to comply with NBA single-franchise ownership rules.

  • Seattle Seahawks’ first-round bids due Monday: The Super Bowl champion franchise is expected to set the largest NFL sale ever, surpassing the $6.05B Washington Commanders record. Reported bidders include ArcelorMittal CEO Aditya Mittal, former Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, VC Vinod Khosla, and Eldridge's Todd Boehly.

  • OpenAI’s chief economist pushes back on AI job displacement fears at ECB retreat: Ronnie Chatterji told bankers in Sintra that AI will complement rather than replace workers, noting that predicted software job losses haven’t happened. ECB policymakers remain split on inflation and growth implications from AI capex.

  • Congress takes bipartisan aim at private equity in youth sports: A House subcommittee hearing titled “Field of Fees” scrutinized PE consolidation in the $40B youth sports industry. Lawmakers from both parties warned that increased fees and reduced competition are pricing families out.

  • Private equity targets Portugal’s family business succession: Deal value is up 28% to €17.6B in 2025 as family-owned businesses account for 70-80% of Portuguese businesses, but founders are hitting retirement age with few willing successors. Lower valuations, niche export industries, and fragmented sectors make it an attractive target for foreign PE.

  • Siris-backed TPx Communications files for Chapter 11 with $1.1B debt load: The telecom provider filed in Texas after skipping interest payments and exhausting restructuring options, with a deal in place to cut debt to ~$129M unless a buyer emerges at auction by early August. TPx has asked a federal judge to approve a $73.5M DIP facility, consisting of a new $20M loan and $53.5M roll-up.

  • Ares leads $1.7B private credit facility for KSL’s acquisition of Invited Clubs: KSL is buying the largest US private club operating 150+ golf and country clubs from Apollo for $2.6B, implying ~7.4× 2025 EBITDA of $350M. The new facility replaces existing first-lien debt priced at S+475-500 maturing in 2032.

  • Leopold Aschenbrenner discloses 19.9% stake in SharonAI: His hedge fund Situational Awareness LP reported the position alongside co-filer Carl Shulman.

  • Ford rehires 300+ veteran engineers after AI quality checks fell short: Automated inspection systems and 900 AI-powered plant cameras couldn’t match veteran expertise, so Ford brought senior technicians back to train its AI tools and mentor younger workers.

  • Streamers lean on catalog over originals in Q1 2026: Every major platform except Netflix drew more viewer hours from older shows such as Friends and Suits than fresh originals. Meanwhile, Hollywood is on track for its best domestic box office year since before the pandemic, potentially crossing $10B in annual ticket sales.

  • Ares leads $1.7B+ private credit loan for KSL’s reacquisition of Invited Clubs: KSL Capital Partners is buying the country club operator back from Apollo for ~$2.6B. The PE firm first bought the business in 2006 and took it public as ClubCorp in 2013 before Apollo picked it up in 2017.

  • Comcast plans NBCUniversal/Sky spinoff: The cable giant announced a tax-free separation expected to close in roughly one year, leaving Comcast as a broadband and wireless business and NBCUniversal/Sky as a standalone media company. This sets the Companies up for some level of consolidation following the split.

M&A Transactions💭 

bitbank, developer of a cryptocurrency exchange platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $289.0M by SBI Holdings (TKKS: 8473).

Amedeo Air Four Plus, engaged in acquiring, leasing, and selling aircrafts, was acquired for GBP 190.0M by Lesha Bank. Panmure Liberum and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Theravance Biopharma (NAS: TBPH), a biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $929.0M by Zymeworks. EV/EBITDA was 7.2x and EV/Revenue was 8.46x. Evercore Group and Lazard advised on the sale.

Talawar Therapeutics, developer of bispecific antibody therapies, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire JATT II Acquisition (NAS: JATT) through a $285.0M reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol TLWR.

Lhoist North America, distributor and supplier of lime, dolime, and mineral-based products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $13.5B by Martin Marietta (NYS: MLM). Martin Marietta plans to fund the transaction with $7.0B in cash along with shares of its stock valued at $6.5B. EV/EBITDA was 17.17x and EV/Revenue was 7.5x. BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan, and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Lannett, developer of generic medicine, was acquired for $250.0M by Aurobindo Pharma USA. EV/Revenue was 0.82x. Raymond James Financial advised on the sale.

Iridium Communications (NNAS: IRDM), the commercial provider of communications services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $8.0B by Rocket Lab (NAS: RKLB). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Clevertech, manufacturer of industrial automated packaging systems, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 800.0M by CVC Capital Partners and Refa. EV/EBITDA was 11.68x and EV/Revenue was 3.46x. Baldi Finance and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

The Data Centers of Cogent Communications Holdings was acquired by I Squared Capital through a $225.0M LBO.

Associated Steel Group, manufacturer of steel components, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $347.0M by Hanwa American.

Alexander Mann Solutions, provider of technology-enabled recruiting, staffing, and other human resource services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Korn Ferry (NYS: KFY). EV/EBITDA was 11.0x and EV/Revenue was 1.69x.

The Global Oil and Gas Business of Videocon Industrials (BOM: 511389) was acquired by Bharat PetroResources for INR 2.5B.

Telegraph Media Group, operator of media publishing company, was acquired for GBP 575.0M by Axel Springer, View Different, Partners Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, CPP Investments, and PSP Investments.

The Farming Operations of Mowi has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 138.0M by Crooke Aquaculture.

Bhushan Power & Steel, manufacturer of steel products, was acquired for INR 78.75B by JFE Steel.

Aham Asset Management, provider of asset management services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 90.0B by Amova Asset Management. The transaction values the company at JPY 115.83B.

AEG Power Solutions, designer and manufacturer of power supply and storage systems, was acquired for CAD 365.0M by Hammond Power Solutions (TSE: HPS.A). EV/Revenue was 1.12x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Smiths Detection, manufacturer of threat detection and screening products, was acquired for GBP 2.0B by CVC Capital Partners. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Safaricom (NAI: SCOM), Kenya-based telecommunications company, was acquired for $2.1B by Vodacom Group (JSE: VOD). EV/EBITDA was 6.22x and EV/Revenue was 3.25x.

Milliman, operator of a retirement plan and benefits administration business unit, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $340.0M by Great-West Lifeco (TSE: GWO). EV/Revenue was 2.83x.

The Calabrian Sulfur Dioxide and Related Sulfur Derivatives Business of INEOS Group was acquired by Ecovyst (NYS: ECVT) for $190.0M. Piper Sandler and Lazard advised on the sale.

Cognite, developer of a data management platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.1B by Schneider Electric (PAR: SU).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Adani Vizhinjam Port, operator of a deep-water container transshipment port, has reached a definitive agreement to receive $1.397B of financing from Terminal Investment.

Alan, a developer of an AI-native health insurance and digital healthcare platform, raised EUR 480.0M of venture funding led by Prosus at a EUR 5.5B valuation.

Sarvam, an India-based full-stack sovereign AI company building localized LLMs, voice interfaces, and developer infrastructure, raised $234.0M (first close of a $300.0M Series B) led by HCLTech and Bessemer Venture Partners at a $1.5B post-money valuation.

SonoThera, developer of a nonviral gene therapy platform, raised $125.45M of Series B venture funding led by Vida Ventures.

FullCryo, manufacturer of cryogenic equipment, raised CNY 1.0B of venture funding led by Chinese Academy of Sciences Holding.

Concierge, provider of luxury concierge and sourcing services, raised $100.0M of seed funding from M Sriram.

AI2 Robotics, manufacturer of embodied intelligent robotics systems, raised CNY 5.0B of venture funding from Shanghai Chinllenge Gases, Guoyuan Securities, and Dunhong Capital Management at a pre-money valuation of CNY 15.0B.

8090 Solutions, developer of an AI-powered software, raised $135.0M of Series A funding led by Salesforce Ventures.

Xinghe Fusion, manufacturer of nuclear fusion energy systems, raised CNY 830.0M of Series A venture funding led by Hengxu Capital, Shenzhen Capital Group, and CAS Star at a pre-money valuation of CNY 2.17B.

SpinQ Technology, developer of quantum computing hardware and software, raised CNY 1.0B of Series D venture funding led by Shangqi Capital, Bluesky TRS, and Shenzhen Press Group Investment.

Premier Lacrosse League, operator of a lacrosse tournament, raised $100.0M of Series E venture funding led by Joseph Tsai and Ares Management.

LeapXpert, developer of digital communications governance and archiving platform, raised $180.0M of venture funding led by Riverwood Capital.

Dominion Dynamics, developer of an autonomy stack designed for extreme arctic operations, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by Georgian.

DexForce, developer of humanoid robots, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding from ICBC Financial Asset Investment, Lens Technology, and Shenzhen Strategic Emerging Industry Investment at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

Beeline Medicines, developer of precision immunology therapeutics programs, raised $426.3 of Series A venture funding led by Bain Capital.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 33% chance of France winning the World Cup following their resounding win against Sweden.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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