What you Need to Know for Feb 26

Welcome back.

The Citrini piece has really caused a lot of chaos this week. You should read it, even if you hate it. What was meant as a way to spark conversation around bear case risk has sparked vastly different opinions. Many people are quite scared after reading it, while on the flip side, others are calling it science fiction and questioning some of the assumptions around 1) the GDP impact of B2B SaaS layoffs 2) the impact on wages and unemployment and 3) how exactly aggregators like DoorDash would be disrupted by AI agents. In fact, even Citadel posted a rebuttal to the piece.

Either way, having your pulse on what is happening on X is clearly a must. That’s why we’ve been calling out Claude risk well before everyone else. And it’s part of why we’re going to move to 3x/week newsletters starting soon. We want to give you the ammo you need more often to stay in tune with what’s going on in the public and private markets.

Let's get into it and start with Nvidia’s insane beat.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $NVDA ( ▲ 1.41% ) Beat on revenue ($68.1B vs. $66.2B) and EPS ($1.62 vs. $1.53) as sales surged 73% y/y, driven by 75% growth in data center revenue to $62.3B, now over 90% of total sales, reflecting continued hyperscaler AI spending. Guidance crushed expectations at $78B vs. $73B, excluding China data center revenue, underscoring sustained hyperscaler AI spending as they said the “inflection point” has arrived. Shares rose after hours.

• $LOW ( ▼ 5.59% ) Beat on revenue and EPS as sales rose over 10% y/y and same store sales climbed 1.3%, driven by Pro demand and +10.5% online growth. However, management warned the housing market lacks “tailwind,” citing elevated mortgage rates, low housing turnover and tariff uncertainty, while guiding EPS below expectations with demand projected roughly flat. This comes as $HD ( ▼ 2.32% ) topped earnings but called out the housing market is pretty stalled. Home Depot's FY sales guide is between 2.5% to 4.5%, with SSS that’s flat to +2%.

• $CRM ( ▲ 3.41% ) Revenue beat at $11.2B vs. $11.18B expected (+12% y/y), while EPS topped estimates at $3.81 vs. $3.04. However revenue guidance of $45.8B–$46.2B came in slightly below consensus. Salesforce also authorized a $50B buyback, but shares fell after hours, as investors still have concerns re: their ability to mitigate AI.

• $SNOW ( ▲ 5.06% ) Product revenue beat at $1.23B vs. $1.18B expected (+30% y/y), while EPS topped estimates at $0.32 vs. $0.27 as enterprise customers ramped AI workloads on its platform. Product revenue guidance of $5.66B came in above est, citing strong demand for AI workloads and a record $400M customer deal.

• $HIMS ( ▲ 2.33% ) Revenue missed slightly but rose 28% y/y, while EPS of $0.08 topped estimates of $0.04 but was down 27% y/y. Subscriber growth continued, though GLP-1 regulatory changes began weighing on growth. The company guided lower revenue to $600M–$625M vs. $653M, citing a $65M headwind tied to personalized weight loss product shipping. Shares are off -52% YTD.

• $WDAY ( ▲ 2.24% ) Beat Q4 revenue ($2.53B vs $2.52B) and EPS ($2.47 vs $2.32) as subscription growth remained solid and margin expansion supported profitability, but issued light subscription revenue and margin guidance as slower deal cycles and softer backlog weighed on forward visibility. Shares slid and the Street was shocked by the Company’s $2.9B in share buybacks last quarter (down ~50%).

• $PLNT ( ▼ 3.1% ) Revenue rose 11% and beat estimates, while EPS of $0.83 topped expectations as membership growth and comps remained solid. Guidance disappointed, with revenue and EPS below expectations as equipment refresh cycles and prior store sales created a temporary growth slowdown.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Diageo PLC $DEO ( ▼ 15.66% ) shares plunged following a weak 1H FY26 earnings report of a 2.8% decline in organic net sales, a dividend cut, and a lower outlook.

• Circle $CRCL ( ▲ 35.47% ) surged on strong stablecoin demand amidst market volatility.

• CAVA $CAVA ( ▲ 26.36% ) stock jumped after a strong Q4 earnings report, plus a FY26 guide of 74-76 new restaurant openings and 3% to 5% SSS growth.

• Godaddy $GDDY ( ▼ 14.28% ) fell after analysts found its AI strategy unconvincing

• Red Violet $RDVT ( ▲ 5.11% ) On Monday, the WSR Investing Club published a piece on this identity intelligence solutions software provider. Access it here.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Revolut is weighing a secondary share sale in 2H26 following prior rounds that valued the fintech at $75B, with investors reportedly pushing for a $100B+ valuation ahead of a potential public listing targeting $150B.

• VoltaGrid, a tech startup that makes gas-powered microgrids for rapid data-center deployment, is exploring either an IPO or sale, with a valuation likely over $10B. Blackstone and BlackRock have discussed investing in the company.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Anthropic pushes deeper into finance: The $380B-valued AI firm partnered with FactSet to roll out new Claude Cowork tools and customizable plug-ins for investment banking, equity research, HR, and wealth management. Markets swung in renewed disruption fears, and finance data providers jumped 2%+.

• The Pentagon has moved towards blacklisting Anthropic by asking Boeing and Lockheed Martin to report their reliance on Claude, an unusual step that could result in the company being designated as a “supply chain risk.” This comes after Secretary Hegseth demanded that Anthropic remove the safeguards on Claude and enable its use for all military purposes.

  • Meanwhile, Anthropic has identified "distillation attacks” on its models by DeepSeek and other companies, with labs creating thousands of fraudulent accounts to generate exchanges with Claude and improve their own models.

• AMD’s Meta deal: Meta $META ( ▲ 2.25% )  struck a $100B+ deal to buy 6 gigawatts of AI compute from AMD $AMD ( ▼ 1.39% ) , including warrants that could give Meta up to a 10% stake if performance milestones are met. This marks a major push by AMD to challenge Nvidia in large-scale data center AI infrastructure.

• Intuit partners with Anthropic: Intuit $INTU ( ▲ 6.28% ) stock jumped after announcing a partnership with Anthropic to integrate Claude-powered custom AI agents into TurboTax and QuickBooks, as the stock has fallen 46% year to date.

• Stripe weighs PayPal deal: Fresh off a $159B valuation, Stripe is reportedly exploring an acquisition of “all or some segments” of PayPal $PYPL ( ▲ 0.64% ) .

• The Dark Side of Private Equity: In a fascinating piece by an anonymous lawyer, the writer lays out how PE funds cause societal harm due to profit maximization, calling out in particular how healthcare providers backed by PE have higher mortality rates, lower staffing and equipment, and reduced spending on patient outcomes.

  • This comes after a new study found that 574 autism therapy centers in 42 states are owned by Private Equity firms, with a large acquisition surge over the past four years.

• New Mountain raises red flags: New Mountain Finance sold $477M of private credit assets at 94 cents on the dollar to boost flexibility, as the fund was looking to reduce PIK income amid falling NAV per share and a reduced dividend.

• A Private Credit Fund jointly managed by FS and KKR has cut its dividend from 70 cents to 48 cents amid lower earnings. 3.4% of its portfolio is now marked as non-accrual positions, up from 2.9% q/q.

• CoreWeave is seeking an $8.5B loan to help finance a buildout of cloud computing capacity for Meta, which would be backed by the $14.2B contract CoreWeave signed with Meta last year. Pricing is being discussed at S+225.

• Warner Bros is considering Paramount’s new $31/share offer, stating that the offer meets the threshold for further talks. Paramount’s offer also includes a $7B breakup fee and $2.8B to cover the fee WBD would owe Netflix if it abandons that deal. If WBD deems the Paramount bid superior, Netflix would have four days to increase its bid of $27.75 a share for the studio and HBO.

• Consumer confidence improved by 2.2 points in February to 91.2, above expectations of 87.0.

• Amazon plans to spend $12B on new data centers in Louisiana as part of its plan to invest $200B in capex this year. Stack Infrastructure is the partner in the project.

• Dan Loeb says short selling is making a comeback: With megacap tech stocks stumbling, Third Point is generating profits on both longs and shorts, calling short selling a “lost art” after years of decline.

• Optimum fired back at the Co-Op group, including Apollo, Ares, and Oaktree, arguing that Kirkland & Ellis’s exit as Optimum’s transaction counsel proves there's an “illegal cartel” freezing it out of the credit markets.

• Over 1,800 companies have filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds from the government, hoping to recoup a piece of the $130B that was collected.

• Jamie Dimon says JPM has "huge redeployment plans" for its own staff as AI begins to reshape the workforce.

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M&A Transactions💭 

YourBio Health, developer of a bladeless blood collection device, was acquired for $150.0M by Hims & Hers Health (NYS: HIMS).

Veris Residential (NYS: VRE), a fully-integrated, self-administrated and self-managed real estate investment trust, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.4B by Affinius Capital and Vista Hill Partners. EV/EBITDA was 13.63x and EV/Revenue was 11.79x. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

United Homes Group (NAS: UHG), operates as a homebuilder, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $218.649M by Stanley Martin Homes. EV/Revenue was 0.52x. Vestra Advisors advised on the sale.

Sirion, developer of a contract management platform, was acquired for $900.0M by Haveli Investments. William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

MSC Software, developer of simulation software, was acquired for EUR 2.7B by Cadence Design Systems (NAS: CDNS). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Honeywell (NAS: HON) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Catalyst Technology Unit of Johnson Matthey (LON: JMAT) for GBP 1.325B. EV/Revenue was 15.34x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Entoria, provider of insurance brokerage services, was acquired for EUR 400.0M by Groupe HLD. EV/Revenue was 4.0x.

Enhabit Home Health & Hospice (NYS: EHAB), provides home health and hospice services, was acquired through a public-to-private $1.2148B LBO by Kinderhook Industries. EV/EBITDA was 23.01x and EV/Revenue was 1.16x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Arcellx (NAS: ACLX), a clinical stage biotechnology company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $7.8B by Gilead (NAS: GILD). The consideration includes one non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) that entitles the holder to receive an additional $5 per CVR upon the achievement of cumulative global net sales of anitocel of at least $6.0B from launch through year-end 2029. EV/Revenue was 217.28x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

TRC Companies, provider of consulting, engineering and construction management services, was acquired for $3.3B by WSP Global (TSE: WSP). Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

Totalmobile, developer of field service and mobile workforce management software, was acquired for GBP 500.0M by Fast Lean Smart.

Thermon (NYS: THR), provides engineered industrial process heating solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.348B by CECO Environmental (NAS: CECO). EV/EBIDTA was 21.79x and EV/Revenue was 4.5x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Terraco Gold, operator of a precious metal royalty and exploration company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $168.0M by OR Royalties (TSE: OR).

Sinnar Thermal Power, operator of a thermal power plant, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for INR 38.001B by Maharashtra State Power Generation and National Thermal Power Corporation (BOM: 532555). BOB Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Origin, developer of a wireless sensing device, was acquired for $170.0M by ADT (NYS: ADT). EV/Revenue was 7.3x.

Aspen Insurance Holdings, a Bermudian insurance and reinsurance company, was acquired for $3.811B by Sompo Holdings (TKS: 8630). EV/EBIDTA was 7.45x and EV/Revenue was 1.19x. Insurance Advisory Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Arcosa Marine Products, manufacturer of marine transportation equipment, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $450.0M by Wynnchurch Capital. EV/EBIDTA was 6.62x and EV/Revenue was 1.17x. Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Augmentum Fintech (LON: AUGM), a closed-ended investment company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 185.7M by Frontier Bidco. Cavendish Financial advised on the sale.

35Pharma, operator of a biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $950.0M by GSK (LON: GSK). Centerview Partners and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Ubicqui, developer of an intelligent infrastructure platform, raised $106.0M of Series D venture funding led by 67 Capital.

H.I.G. WhiteHorse has provided financing in Amira’s acquisition of Viabus, a leading Dutch tour operator.

Monroe Capital acted as lead left in First Reserve’s acquisition of WGI, a consulting firm.

AI2 Robotics, manufacturer of embodied intelligent robotics systems, raised over CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding from CRRC Capital Holding, Beijing Yuxin Group, and Sentury Tire at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

Zelos Tech, developer of fully autonomous delivery vehicles, raised $300.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors at a per-money valuation of $9.7B.

Slate Medicines, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $130.0M of Series A venture funding led by Foresite Capital, Forbion, and RA Capital Management.

SambaNova Systems, develoepr of a chips-to-model computing built for an AI platform, raised $350.0M of Series E venture funding led by Intel, Vista Equity Partners, and Cambium Capital Manageement.

MatX, manufacturer of computer chips, raised $500.0M of Series B venture funding led by Jane Street and Situational Awareness.

Basis, developer of an AI based accounting assistant software, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Accel at a pre-money valuation of $1.05B.

Axelera AI, developer of an AI hardware and software acceleration platform, raised EUR 250.0M of venture funding led by Innovation Industries.

Alveus therapeutics, developer of biological and small-molecule treatments, raised $197.0M of Series A venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by Andera Partners, Omega Funds, and New Rhein Healthcare at a pre-money valuation of $86.29M.

Wayve, developer of an AI based driving software, raised $1.5B of Series D venture funding eld by SoftBank Investment Advisers, Eclipse Capital, and Balderton Capital at a pre-money valuation of $7.1B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 51% chance of Morgan Stanley leading SpaceX’s IPO.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Until next time!

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