What you Need to Know for Feb 12th

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Welcome back!

Software is continuing to really bleed out and there’s a new story every day of an industry getting a case of “AI shock” - whether it’s really merited or not. Don’t you love it though? This is what makes a market.

In the first of many Software-oriented WSR IC pieces we put out, we laid out how Alternatives managers is what we’re eyeing first in the Software fallout story.

More on what we’re seeing in Software and across other companies below. Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

$SPOT ( ▲ 2.34% ) Beat on revenue, up 7%, and on EPS at €4.43 EPS vs. €2.74 expected. Monthly active users rose 11% to 751M and paid subscribers climbed 10% to 290M, driven by strong international growth and record engagement from “Spotify Wrapped” over 300M users. The company guided to continued user growth next quarter but noted FX headwinds on revenue.

$HOOD ( ▼ 8.91% ) Missed on revenue but beat on EPS, as a 38% drop in crypto revenue to $221M and softer retail trading on lower volatility weighed on results. That offset a 39% rise in net interest income from higher balances and rates, even as assets jumped 68% to $324B. Management also launched a public testnet for its new Layer-2 blockchain, signaling a deeper push into tokenization and less reliance on trading.

$APO ( ▼ 4.14% ) Beat on revenue and posted a strong EPS beat, driven by record $97B of quarterly lending and solid inflows that pushed AUM to $938B. Private credit momentum continued to power results, with management guiding to over 20% FRE growth in 2026 and emphasizing limited software exposure amid AI volatility.

$SPGI ( ▼ 2.57% ) Revenue came in roughly in line at $3.92B vs $3.90B, while EPS of $4.30 slightly missed estimates as softer transaction activity and lighter Market Intelligence margins limited operating leverage. Ratings and Indices remained solid, but guidance of $19.40–$19.65 came in below expectations.

$MCD ( ▼ 0.85% ) Top and bottom line beat with global comps up 5.7% and U.S. comps up 6.8%. Strength was driven by its value strategy and meal bundles, with promotions like Monopoly and the Grinch Meal helping win back lower income consumers. The company plans $3.7–$3.9B in 2026 capex, including roughly 2,600 new restaurants, alongside new energy drinks and refreshers, while noting 1Q comps may moderate due to weather.

$RACE ( ▲ 5.44% ) & $F ( ▲ 2.06% ) delivered sharply different quarters, highlighting luxury resilience versus mass-market pressure. $RACE ( ▲ 5.44% ) beat on top and bottom line and guided 2026 above expectations, targeting at least €2.93B in profit as pricing power and a sold-out order book through 2027 help offset tariffs. Meanwhile $F ( ▲ 2.06% ) , despite a revenue beat, missed on EPS at $0.13 as $900M in unexpected tariff costs and EV writedowns drove an $11.1B loss, though management sees a 2026 rebound on cost cuts and truck demand.

$CSCO ( ▼ 0.87% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, driven by 21% networking growth and $2.1B in AI infrastructure orders. However, guidance only met expectations which disappointed after the stock’s strong run, sending shares lower despite continued AI momentum and new Nvidia-powered products.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Micron $MU ( ▲ 9.94% ) jumped after Deutsche Bank reiterated a Buy rating and hiked its price target to $500 from $300, citing strong AI-driven memory demand.

• Unity $U ( ▼ 26.33% ) plunged on a soft Q1 outlook, with revenue guidance of ~$480M coming in below consensus. We also think Seedance (more on that below) might have been a driver here…

• Mattel $MAT ( ▼ 24.98% ) fell after missing Q4 expectations, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.39 vs $0.53 expected and revenue of $1.77B vs $1.84B consensus. Management pointed towards lower US demand, margin pressure from inflation, and near-term headwinds from continued digital investment.

• Lyft $LYFT ( ▼ 16.97% ) tanked as rider numbers disappointed in Q4 amidst a tough competitive environment with Uber and Waymo.

• Financial Services Firms $LPLA ( ▼ 6.08% ) , $SCHW ( ▼ 3.83% ) , $SF ( ▼ 1.21% ) ,and $RJF ( ▲ 0.08% ) are down over the past 2 days as Hazel, an AI financial planning tool from Altruist, threatened to automate advisory and tax planning work.

• Zillow $ZG ( ▼ 17.13% ) fell as the top and bottom lines beat but adjusted EBITDA and FCF margin missed estimates. Legal costs are also expected to drag on earnings in 2026.

• CRE Brokers $CWK ( ▼ 13.82% ) , $JLL ( ▼ 12.46% ) , and $CBRE ( ▼ 12.24% ) all sold off today as investors rotated out of high-fee, labor intensive businesses that could be pressured by AI automation.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Possible IPO rebound ahead: Goldman Sachs expects US IPO volume to quadruple to a record $160B in 2026, with deal count doubling to ~120. Prominent names like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic near public listings, with software and healthcare companies set to dominate.

• Solv Energy IPO: The solar and battery infrastructure company raised $512.5M at $25 per share, valuing the company at ~$5B after an oversubscribed offering.

Innovation Takes Flight: Redefining Regional Travel

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Surf Air Mobility (NYSE: SRFM) is building the platform for this new era of flying.

At the center of this vision, is SurfOS, the Company’s proprietary AI-enabled software, purpose-built to become the intelligent operating system for the air mobility industry.

Built by partnering with Palantir, SurfOS has delivered a 36% reduction in operational expenses, a 75% increase in platform transactions, and a 197% increase in bookings per broker.

Buckle up, the commercial launch is planned to happen in 2026.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Jobs market kicks off 2026 stronger than expected: The US added 130k jobs in January, significantly higher than estimates of 66k, while unemployment fell to 4.3%. Prime-age labor force participation rose to 84.1% (highest since 2001) and wages increased 3.7% YoY.

• ByteDance’s latest launch: Seedance 2.0, an AI video generation model, is now live with impressive 1080p video-making capabilities. These video models are incredibly realistic and it’s starting to feel like we’re on the edge of being unable to distinguish what is and isn’t AI.

• Blackstone doubles down on Anthropic: Blackstone increased its stake in Claude-maker Anthropic to $1B, investing an additional $200M in a funding round valuing the company at $350B.

• AI is actually intensifying workloads for employees, with a new study revealing that employees now work faster and longer, often without being asked to do so.

• Paramount sweetens bid for Warner Bros. Discovery: Paramount Skydance adds a 25-cent-per-share ticking fee and $2.8B in breakup fees tied to Warner’s $82.7B Netflix deal, while maintaining its original $108B bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.

• Meta is breaking ground on a 1 GW data center in Indiana, spending upwards of $10B on the project. The company plans to spend $135B on AI expansion in 2026.

  • Meanwhile, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has disclosed a new position in META, making it ~10% of their fund

• 100 more years of Google: Alphabet issued a 100-year bond, the tech industry’s first since the dot-com era, drawing roughly $13B in bids for the $1.4B sale. The debt comes with a 6.125% interest rate and is expected to be rated AA+. The sale is part of an almost $32B total debt raise for Alphabet as it continues its race to build out its AI capabilities.

• Top private schools in NYC now charge over $70k a year for tuition, more than most colleges and a drastic increase from a median of $40k in 2014.

• Zuck is eyeing Miami: The Meta founder is planning to buy a property in the Miami area, possibly joining Jeff Bezos and Carl Icahn on Billionaires Bunker. This comes as California, where Zuckerberg owns two homes, is debating a wealth tax.

• Apollo-backed Michaels is seeking to raise $4.85B in debt to refinance its capital structure, including a seven year $1.1B first lien term loan offering led by UBS. Loan pricing is S+475-500 at an OID of 98.

• Oaktree raised $2.4B for its latest special situations fund, a new firm record for the strategy

• Ridership growth boosts Brightline Florida’s bonds: The rail line’s credit rating dropped into junk after it skipped two interest payments, but ridership gains of 23% y/y offer hope for the bonds.

• MrBeast has acquired Step, a financial services app that caters to young people by providing savings, investment, and credit-building services.

• Target will lay off ~500 corporate and supply chain roles while boosting in-store staffing.

• Kraft Heinz is staying together, opting to invest $600mm on developing new products instead of splitting into two companies.

M&A Transactions💭 

Oman Food Capital, provider of food investment and production services, was acquired for $150.0M by JBS (NYS: JBS).

Valaris (NYS: VAL), an offshore contract drilling company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.8B by Transocean (NYS: RIG). EV/EBITDA was 13.57x and EV/Revenue was 4.53x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

InPost (AMS: INPST), operates a pan-European out-of-home delivery platform, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 7.8B by FedEx, A&R Investments, Advent International, and PPF Group. EV/EBITDA was 9.15x and EV/Revenue was 2.61x. J.P. Morgan and Banco Santander advised on the sale.

HC-One, provider of home care services, was acquired for $1.6B by Undisclosed Investors.

Uber (NYS: UBER) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Delivery Business of Getir Perakende Lojistik for $335.0M.

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (NYS: CCO), a provider of out-of-home advertising solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $6.2B by Apollo Global Management, Mubadala Capital, and TWG Global. EV/EBITDA was 13.37x and EV/Revenue was 3.95x. Morgan Stanley and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

The Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions Business of Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYS: BDX) was acquired for $17.5B by Waters (NYS: WAT). EV/EBITDA was 18.92x and EV/Revenue was 5.15x. Barclays, Citigroup, and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Telefonica Chile (SGO: CTC), a telecommunication company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $200.0M by Millicom International Cellular (NAS: TIGO) and NJJ Holding. The company will receive a contingent payout of $150.0M based on structural value creation. EV/EBITDA was 7.26x and EV/Revenue was 0.22x.

Tabletki.ua, operator of an online pharmaceutical information and price comparison platform, was acquired for $160.0M by Kyivstar (NAS: KYIV). EV/EBITDA was 6.67x and EV/Net Income was 8.0x.

Reward Loyalty UK, operator of a holding company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $230.0M by Rezolve Ai (NAS: RZLV).

Onum, developer of data orchestration edge computing platform, was acquired for $290.0M by CrowdStrike Holdings (NAS: CRWD).

Movistar Chile, provider of telecommunication services, was acquired for EUR 1.03B by Undisclosed Investors.

Mattel163, developer of mobile game software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $159.0M by Mattel (NAS: MAT).

European Wax Center (NAS: EWCZ), a franchisor and operator of OOH waxing services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $330.0M by General Atlantic. The transaction values the company at $564.1M. EV/EBIDTA was 14.22x and EV/Revenue was 4.48x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Dynavax Technologies, a biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $2.485B by Sanofi (PAR: SAN). EV/Revenue was 7.52x. Centerview Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Dellner Couplers, manufacturer and supplier of train connection systems, was acquired for EUR 890.0M by Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (NYS: WAB). EV/Revenue was 4.19x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

LLOG Exploration, operator of an oil and gas exploration and production company, was acquired for $3.2B by Harbour Energy (LON: HBR). EV/Net Income was 17.65x. Guggenheim Partners advised on the sale.

Kodiak Building Partners, operator of a building materials acquisition firm, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.25B by QXO (NYS: QXO). EV/Revenue was 0.94x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

CyberArk Software, a cybersecurity vendor, was acquired for $26.219B by Palo Alto Networks (NAS: PANW). EV/Revenue was 19.26x. Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Supabase, developer of an open-source backend platform, raised $143.1M of Series E venture funding led by Peak XV Partners and Accel at a pre-money valuation of $4.98B.

Standard Nuclear, developer of tristructural-isotropic nuclear fuel and radioisotope power systems, raised $158.95M of Series A venture funding led by Decisive Point.

Oxide Computer, manufacturer of an integrated rack-scale computer system, raised $200.0M of venture funding led by US Innovative Technology Fund.

Newcleo, developer of clean and safe nuclear technology, raised EUR 260.0M of Series A venture funding from Banca Patrimoni Sella & Co., Viaro Energy, and Ingerop.

Databricks, developer of a data analytics platform, raised $7.0B of Series L venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $129.0B. $5.0B of Series L venture funding was led by Insight Partners, J.P. Morgan Growth Equity, and Fidelity Management & Research Company. A $2.0B of debt was provided by J.P. Morgan Chase, Barclays, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Morgan Stanley.

Stoke Space, manufacturer of reusable rockets, raised $960.0M of Series D venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $1.61B. $410.0M of Series D venture funding was led by US Innovative Technology Fund. $200.0M of loan was provided by Silicon Valley Bank and other undisclosed lenders.

Solace, provider of a healthcare marketplace, raised $130.0M of Series C venture funding led by IVP at a pre-money valuation of $870.0M.

ILiAD Biotechnologies, developer of a medical vaccine, raised $115.0M of Series B venture funding led by RA Capital Management.

Garner, developer of a healthcare data analytics platform, raised $118.0M of Series D venture funding led by Kleiner Perkins at a pre-money valuation of $1.23B.

Olix Computing, operator of a technology company, raised $220.0M of venture funding led by Hummingbird at a pre-money valuation of $780.0M.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 93% chance of Norway winning the most Gold Medals:

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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None constitutes financial or investment advice. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. We are not registered investment advisers or broker-dealers, and this newsletter is distributed under the “publisher’s exclusion” of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The content provided is impersonal and general in nature; it does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Today’s Newsletter is in paid partnership with Surf Air Mobility. Forward-looking statements about the 2026 commercial launch and market size projections should be framed as targets or forecasts, not guarantees.

*Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket