What you Need to Know for August 21

Bessent loses the plot. Are the LA Dodgers in trouble?

Author

HY Harry
August 21, 2026

Welcome back. Well the big surprise since we last talked was Treasury Secretary Bessent’s move to double the cap on long-term buybacks from $2Bn to $4Bn from Sept 9th through November 9th. Notably, Bessent said the $4B number might be just the beginning, but long-end rates ultimately brushed this off as minimal.

Obviously, high rates are having a negative impact on consumer confidence, plus U.S. interest expenses, but this move to soothe the bond market misses the point. This surprising and interventionist move is not going to inspire confidence from the bond vigilantes! It draws less confidence than more confidence.

Notably, the U.S. national debt passed the $40 Trillion mark and our deficit-to-GDP ratio is nearly 6%. In response to rates going wider, the market struggled yesterday, but Gold has rallied this week and Bitcoin is +18% w/w…I guess Saylor selling should’ve been the bottom indicator.

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Today’s Jobs:

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Walmart $WMT ( ▼ 9.15% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $187.9B vs. $186B expected and EPS of $0.81 vs. $0.74. Results were supported by 24% U.S. e-commerce growth, 43% growth in Walmart Connect advertising, and 17% membership revenue growth. However, U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6% vs.
    3.8% expected, the slowest growth in six years, as lower pharmacy pricing and cautious consumer spending weighed on growth; excluding the pharmacy impact, comps grew 3.4%. Walmart also benefited from $2.9B of tariff refunds, which helped fund price cuts across thousands of products. Mgmt. increased its FY outlook but guided below expectations.

  • Target $TGT ( ▼ 0.47% ) beat on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $26.54B vs. $26.14B and EPS of $2.46 vs. $2.33. Results were driven by a 3.8% increase in comparable sales, above expectations, with traffic up 3.6%, digital comps up 8.7%, and same-day delivery growing more than 25%; food and beauty were strong, while apparel and home still lagged. A major one-time boost from $994M of tariff refunds helped lift profitability, though underlying EPS still grew about 20% excluding that benefit. Mgmt. raised FY sales growth guidance to around 5%, up from its prior outlook, and also raised its underlying EPS guidance as stronger sales trends and better execution supported the turnaround, helping shares rise.

  • Lowes $LOW ( ▼ 1.21% ) Revenue missed at $25.96B vs. $26.16B, while EPS beat at $4.40 vs. $4.22. Comparable sales rose just 0.2% as strength in Pro, home services, and 15.7% online growth was largely offset by continued weakness in discretionary DIY spending, with customers still holding back on bigger projects amid high mortgage rates and a soft housing market. Tariff refunds added about $0.11 to EPS, helping support the bottom-line beat. Mgmt. narrowed FY guidance to the low end of its prior range, because it expects DIY customers to remain cautious through the second half.

  • TJX Companies $TJX ( ▼ 2.64% ) Beat on both the top and bottom line. Comparable sales rose 4% as shoppers spent more per trip and transactions increased, with especially strong growth at HomeGoods, Canada, and International. The weak spot was Marmaxx, where comps rose just 1% because merchandise mix and allocation mistakes left some basic and impulse-driven products missing from stores; mgmt. called the issue “self-inflicted and within our control” and said trends have already improved in August. Mgmt. raised FY adjusted EPS and margin guidance and increased its long-term store target to 7,500, but Q3 adjusted EPS guidance came in below the consensus, while higher fuel and freight costs and the Marmaxx slowdown weighed on shares.

  • Ross $ROST ( ▼ 2.43% ) Top line beat at $6.26B while adj. bottom line beat at $2.06. Results were driven by strong customer traffic and compelling merchandise, pushing comparable sales up 10%, while underlying operating margins expanded well above expectations even excluding a $253M tariff refund. The company raised its 2H and FY outlook and increased its 2026 store opening plan to 115 locations.

  • Viking Holdings $VIK ( ▼ 0.26% ) beat on revenue and EPS. Results were driven by fleet expansion and strong demand, with capacity up 10.9% as Viking added ships, while higher revenue per passenger pushed net yield up 6.2% and EBITDA rise 18.2% despite higher costs from operating the larger fleet. Forward demand also remained strong, with 96% of 2026 capacity already sold and 2027 advance bookings up 21%, even as the company plans to increase capacity another 15% next yr. Historically low European river levels have disrupted some itineraries and resulted in future cruise vouchers that are expected to weigh on FY27 and FY28 results, although mgmt. said the disruptions have not hurt booking trends.

  • Estee Lauder $EL ( ▼ 1.9% ) Top and bottom line beat, with revenue at $3.63B vs. $3.54B and EPS at $0.39 vs. $0.32. Results were driven by continued momentum in prestige fragrance and skincare, with fragrance sales up 10% behind strength at Le Labo and Tom Ford, while China improved as the company increased consumer investment and pulled back on discounting; makeup remained flat and hair care declined 1%. Earnings also benefited from $38M of tariff refunds, which partially offset $102M of incremental tariff costs for the FY. Mgmt. said its turnaround is gaining traction and expects to cut 10,000 jobs as part of its restructuring, which is expected to be substantially completed in FY27. The company guided above expectations.

  • Wolfspeed $WOLF ( ▼ 9.42% ) Missed with revenue of $149.6M vs. $150M and a bigger then expected EPS loss. Results were weighed down by continued weakness in materials, where sales fell 44% YoY, and negative gross margins, which more than offset AI data-center sales that grew 20% QoQ and doubled for the FY as demand for its power products increased. Mgmt. expects gross margins to remain negative and guided Q1 revenue roughly in line with expectations.

  • Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 1.27% ) Beat on the top line but missed on the bottom line. Results were driven by strong AI demand, with AI Cloud and Compute revenue up 45%, but heavy AI infrastructure spending pressured profitability as capex jumped 75% due to increased CPU procurement to meet AI demand, higher semiconductor prices, and equipment-delivery timing, while net profit fell 75%. Mgmt. expects AI-related capex to break even within three years as it expands compute capacity and deploys more of its lower cost in-house chips.

  • Deere & Company $DE ( ▲ 6.94% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $12.61B vs. $12.43B and EPS of $5.10. Results were driven by strength in Construction & Forestry, where sales rose 18% on demand from infrastructure, data-center and energy projects, and Small Ag & Turf, where sales rose 12%, helping offset continued weakness in large agriculture. Production & Precision Ag sales fell 6% as farmers remained cautious amid lower crop prices and elevated costs. Mgmt. raised FY net income guidance to $4.5B-$5.0B, roughly in line with expectations, while warning that tariffs remain a headwind.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Anthropic is targeting a $10B+ credit facility ahead of its potential fall IPO, more than 4x its $2.5B facility from last year. Lead banks are being asked to commit ~$1.25B each as they compete for IPO underwriting mandates.

  • YMTC completed pre-listing tutoring, moving closer to a Chinese IPO after rival CXMT’s $9.9B debut last month. The chipmaker is currently the world’s third-largest flash memory maker.

  • Orion180 Insurance Group Inc. filed for a US IPO as the Florida-based specialty home and flood insurer eyes a larger share of the excess and surplus insurance market, which has grown at a 25% CAGR to $4B over the past five years.

  • Lyntris Inc. $LYNX ( ▲ 3.6% ) fell in its NYSE debut Wednesday after a downsized IPO raised $297.5M at $17.50 per share (below the $19-$22 marketed range) for a $1.62B valuation. The Trive Capital-backed defense sensor company sold 17M shares and makes systems for 200+ US DoD and allied programs.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Opposition to AI data center buildout is becoming a bipartisan issue, with the NRSC warning it’s a “sleeper issue” for the cycle. Pew found over half of Americans are now more concerned than excited about AI, up from 37% in 2021.

  • Morgan Stanley has chosen Dallas as a major expansion site, planning a relocation of up to 4,800 jobs by 2031. Their location would be just a mile away from Goldman’s new urban campus.

  • Bill Ackman is donating $400M in Pershing Square stock to launch a New York brain research and rehabilitation institute, with plans for a second, similarly sized donation to make it self-sustaining.

  • Ramp launched their own AI routing system called Router, letting users switch between models from OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, and others through a single API, positioning itself as a rival to OpenRouter; which was just acquired by Stripe.

  • Stripe has told investors “the singularity” has begun, arguing remaining private is best for the moment and holding off on an IPO. The company reported 41% YoY revenue growth in H1 2026.

  • SpaceX attempted to acquire Cognition, an AI coding startup, although talks aren’t currently active and the two are instead discussing Cognition using SpaceX computing capacity. Cognition was valued at $26B in May, and is in talks to raise at a $40B valuation.

  • A Guggenheim Investments loan swung sharply Wednesday. It traded below 80 cents Monday, jumped to 90 during a lender call as executives promised better Q3 earnings, then fell back to the low-80s as they dodged questions on the federal probe into owner Mark Walter. For baseball fans…this is one to watch to see if anything happens with Walter’s LA Dodgers.

  • Insurance-defense law firm Wood Smith Henning & Berman has agreed to be acquired by PE sponsor Wood Smith Henning & Berman at a $700M valuation (18x 2025 EBITDA). Lawyers would keep ownership of the firm while the PE firm owns the nonlegal side through an MSO.

  • PE firm BlackSun raised the first $1B of a $7B Mega Fund I to invest across sports, media, entertainment, and technology. The fund has already bid for Warner Bros Discovery and joined Native American groups in a bid for a Seattle NBA expansion team.

  • CD&R’s Cornerstone Building Brands is sounding out private credit firms for a potential LME. Cornerstone’s $2.46B 1L TL due in 2028 trades at 54 cents.

  • PE firm Arctos agreed to buy 10% of the Atlanta Falcons at a $10.6B valuation, purchased in two tranches over 18 months. It would be Arctos’ 4th NFL investment (Chargers, Bills, Browns) pending an October NFL vote.

  • Standard Life is partnering with a consortium led by CVC and Prudential to enter the UK’s booming pension risk-transfer market. The group committed £2B over five years, and Standard Life holds 51% of voting rights.

  • Morgan Stanley is hiring Tim Luke from Barclays as vice chairman in its tech investment banking group. Luke will focus on semiconductors and hardware. He previously served as a senior advisor to former UK PM David Cameron.

M&A Transactions💭 

Pinewood Technologies (LON: PINE), a cloud-based full-service technology provider, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 545.0M by Ridgeview Partners. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Clearwater1, manufacturer of water quality and air purification equipment, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $465.0M by Veralto (NYS: VLTO). EV/Revenue was 3.44x.

Webster Financial (NYS: WBS), a full-service provider of financial services, was acquired for $16.647B by Banco Santander (MAD: SAN). EV/Net Income was 16.79x and EV/Revenue was 5.66x. Piper Sandler and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

PCI Energy Solutions, developer of energy management and optimization software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.4B by Mitsubishi Electronic (TKS: 6503).

At-Bay, operator of a cyber-risk insurance and security platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $575.0M by Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (ETR: MUV2). Ardea Partners advised on the sale.

D-Fend Solutions, developer of an autonomous counter-drone system, was acquired for $1.5B by Motorola Solutions (NYS: MSI). EV/Revenue was 8.11x. Jefferies and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Cox Communications, operator of a multi-service broadband communication agency, was acquired for $34.5B by Charter Communications (NAS: CHTR). Allen & Company, BDT & MSD Partners, Wells Fargo, and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Essity (STO: ESSITY B) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Feminine Care Business of Kenvue (NYS: KVUE) for $284.0M.

Chaeun Package, manufacturer of cosmetic packaging, was acquired for 44.0B Won by Meritz Securities, Hosan Investment, and Its Management.

MicroAge, provider of managed IT services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $220.5M by ScanSource (NAS: SCSC).

Wood Smith Henning & Berman, a law firm, has signed a letter of intent with a private equity firm to be acquired in a deal that values the company at roughly $700.0M. EV/Adjusted EBITDA was roughly 18x.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Kynexis, developer of a precision medicine, raised EUR 97.0M of Series A venture funding led by Novartis Venture Fund.

Flash, developer of a human resource management platform, raised $150.0M of Series D venture funding led by Battery Ventures and Kevin Efrusy.

Blacksmith, developer of managed infrastructure, raised $111.26M of Series B venture funding led by Peak XV Partners at a pre-money valuation of $509.0M.

Also, developer of an integrated technology platform, raised $150.0M of Series D venture funding led by Prysm Capital at a pre-money valuation of $850.0M.

Rillet, developer of accounting software, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by ICONIQ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $900.0M.

Castelion, manufacturer of advanced hypersonic weapon systems, raised $1.05B of Series C venture funding through a combination of debt and equity in a deal led by J.P. Morgan Chase at a pre-money valuation of $12.0B.

Muon Space, developer of mission-optimization satellite constellations, raised $250.0M of Series C venture funding led by Eclipse Capital at a pre-money valuation of $1.25B.

Habitat, manufacturer of smart home products, raised CNY 700.0M of Series A venture funding led by Changzhou Venture Capital Group.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a coin flip 50% chance of a rate hike in 2026

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

YTD Inflows for non-traded BDCs have fallen -70% (BBG)

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. Today’s Partners are f2 and Money Market Machine. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket