What you Need to Know for August 12th

On Cloud's Cloudy Future. Plus, it's Inflation Day.

Author

HY Harry
August 12, 2026

Welcome back! We have some hot AI names reporting earnings, but we are starting to get a bit of a breather from a busy 2Q earnings season.

Iran demanded the US unfreeze Iranian funds as a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices up more than 6% this week. Pakistan’s defense minister told Bloomberg that the U.S. and Iran are close to “some sort of arrangement” but obviously things remain quite tense.

Today’s inflation day - any surprise to the upside brings September rate hike discussions back on the table. Jobs were weak on Friday, but at 8:30am ET today we’ll know number if inflation is still running hot.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

  • Wednesday: Cisco, Coherent, Nebius, Cerebras, Amcor, Performance Food Group, Trimble, Brinker International, StubHub, Grocery Outlet, Virgin Galactic, Fossil, Jack in the Box, Red Robin

  • Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield, JD.com, Tapestry, Birkenstock, YETI, Intuitive Machines, McGraw Hill

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Wednesday: CPI M/M (0.1%), Core CPI M/M (0.3%), CPI Y/Y (3.4%), CPI Core Y/Y (2.5%), Monthly Treasury Balance

  • Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (203K), PPI (0.2%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M (0.2%)

  • Friday: Retail Sales (0.1%), Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories (0.1%), U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (54.5)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Cava $CAVA ( ▼ 1.25% ) Revenue beat at $365.4M vs. $360M, while EPS beat at $0.19 vs. $0.18. Growth was driven by 9% same-store sales, with most of that coming from 5.3% higher guest traffic, plus 17 new restaurant openings that are performing ahead of expectations. Restaurant-level margin fell 60 bps to 25.7% as the new salmon launch, more third-party delivery, and higher wages added costs, though stronger sales helped offset some of that pressure. Mgmt. kept FY guidance unchanged and said sales are already recovering after a short-term hit from broader Cyclospora-related concerns around lettuce and fresh produce.

  • CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 2.42% ) revenue beat at $2.58B vs. $2.56B, while EPS also beat by posting a narrower loss than expected. Results were driven by surging AI infrastructure demand, with customers like Meta and Anthropic taking more GPU capacity as companies race to secure compute for training and running AI models. Backlog reached $104B and near-term capacity is essentially sold out, the company is spending heavily on new data centers, chips, and power to keep up with demand. Mgmt. raised FY revenue guidance as it expects more capacity to come online and demand to remain strong.

  • RocketLab $RKLB ( ▼ 0.04% ) beat at $234.1M vs. $231.6M and AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▲ 4.17% ) revenue missed at $31.5M vs. ~$35M. AST’s revenue came from gateway deliveries and U.S. government contract milestones, while Rocket Lab’s beat was driven by product sales nearly doubling as its space-systems and government business expanded. Both missed on EPS, with AST’s loss widening as satellite production, launches, and network buildout drove spending higher, while Rocket Lab continued investing in Neutron and expanding its space infrastructure. The bigger difference is where each is headed: AST is building a direct-to-cell network for normal phones, while Rocket Lab is becoming a broader launch, satellite, and communications company through Neutron and its Iridium acquisition.

  • On Holding $ONON ( ▼ 20.29% ) revenue missed while EPS beat. Sales rose 13% YoY, driven by strong DTC and Asia-Pacific demand, but reported growth was held back by FX, slower wholesale sales, and promotional activity. Wholesale grew just 5%. Gross margin reached 65.4%, but mgmt. lowered its FY sales outlook to CHF3.47B–CHF3.56B as the company prioritizes full-price sales and margins over faster near-term growth.

  • Venture Global $VG ( ▼ 7.29% ) revenue came in at $4.58B, up 48% YoY, while EPS beat at $0.51 vs. $0.49. Growth came from selling more LNG as new production at its Plaquemines export facility came online, along with stronger liquefaction fees. The company is spending heavily to finish Plaquemines and build out its next major LNG project, CP2, which pushed first-half capex to $6.9B and debt to $42.4B. Mgmt. still raised FY adjusted EBITDA guidance as it expects more export capacity to come online.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Anthropic is meeting with potential investors ahead of its planned IPO this September/early October, potentially the largest ever at a $965Bn valuation, fielding pointed questions on Chinese AI competitors, Trump administration tensions, and data-center backlash.

  • Lyntris Inc. is targeting up to $528M in its US IPO, pricing 24M shares at $19-$22 for up to a $2.53B valuation. The Trive Capital-backed defense sensor technology company makes systems combining sensors, antennas, and proprietary software for military use across 200+ programs serving the US DoD and international allies. Evercore, Citigroup, and Guggenheim Securities are leading the offering.

  • DayOne Data Centers filed confidentially for a US IPO that could raise ~$5B at a potential $20B valuation, targeting a listing as soon as next quarter. The company closed a $4.5B Series C in June led by Coatue and Hillhouse, and has secured 1.5+ gigawatts of bookings across the Asia Pacific and Europe since its 2022 inception.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Nvidia struck a megadeal with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create “compute financing platforms” aimed at deploying over $500Bn of outside capital to help Nvidia’s customers finance computing power at attractive rates. The financing could help signal to investors that Nvidia and its partners in the AI boom have the “firepower” to build the infrastructure they need. Still, bond investors have widened the yield they demand on Nvidia debt since June, a sign of pricing in more leverage entering the AI trade.

  • Pimco looked at how the massive AI capex cycle is reshaping bond markets, with USD investment grade absorbing far more hyperscaler debt than its euro counterpart. Worth a read if you’re curious how the AI buildout is showing up in credit.

  • Intel is raising $15B in an equity offering to fund AI chip growth after its shares nearly tripled this year. JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are joint book-runners on the deal, which includes a 30-day option for an additional $2.25B.

  • The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also fallen below 300M barrels, the lowest in more than 40 years as exports traveling through the Strait of Hormuz have tanked due to the U.S. Iran war.

  • Barclays says price-sensitive private investors, now 73% of the Treasury market vs. ~50% a decade ago, are keeping 30-year yields at multi-decade peaks. The 30-year has traded above 5% for 41 straight days (longest since 2007), and Thursday’s $25B bond sale is expected to draw the highest yield since August 2001.

  • Mark Zuckerberg published an AI manifesto arguing that superintelligence should be broadly distributed to individuals rather than concentrated among a few labs, framing “balance of power” as AI safety’s real foundation. He positioned Meta as uniquely focused on “personal superintelligence” versus rivals building for institutions.

  • PE firms are stuck with nearly 34,000 unsold businesses, up from 32,451 in 2025 and 15,923 10 years ago. US PE returns have lagged the broader market, with 6.4% annualized returns from July 2022 to March 2026 vs. 15.2% for the S&P500, as rates, software pressures, and a dried-up buyer pool challenge exits.

  • Regional banks are seeing rising commercial loan demand as AI capex spills into manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, with the KRE regional bank ETF up 17% this year and near-record highs and net C&I loan demand jumping to 16.1% from 4.8% in Q1.

  • Jamie Dimon argued AI infrastructure spending will “play out and pay out,” estimating it will add 1% to GDP this year and again next year, even as Alphabet posted negative $5.9Bn FCF in Q2 on $44.9Bn of capex and Amazon’s trailing FCF hit a $7.6Bn outflow.

  • Roku launched “Fairground AI,” a free channel broadcasting 24/7 AI-generated content, drawing widespread mockery online for its glitchy visuals and incoherent dialogue. Creator Colin Petrie-Norris marketed it as the first fully-ad supported AI streaming channel, but early clips, including a medieval drama with backward-flying arrows, suggest otherwise.

  • 777 Partners filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas after creditors owed $26M sought to force an involuntary liquidation last month, accelerating a wind-down that started when co-founder Josh Wander resigned in 2024 amid criminal fraud charges.

  • Honolulu is selling ~$196M in municipal bonds this week, with $9.4M going to finish Skyline, the US’s first driverless light-rail system. Costs have doubled from $5B in 2012 to ~$10B today, and the full 19-mile line is expected in 2031.

  • Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan earned 9.5% in the first half of 2026, which was driven by an $8.7B SpaceX stake. The fund’s ~50.7M SpaceX shares (~0.7% of the company) were the venture growth arm’s first-ever investment back in 2019.

  • Uber has exited its stake in Serve Robotics after clashes over how to deploy delivery robots, and Serve says it won’t renew the partnership when it expires in early 2027. Serve halved its FY revenue outlook after quarterly delivery volumes through Uber fell for the first time since their 2022 partnership began.

  • Citadel Securities says systematic buyers are set to reload on stocks after leveraged ETF assets plunged 42% to $154B last month, and semiconductors saw the largest drop. Corporate buyback authorizations now top $1T, the highest ever for this time of year.

Today’s MVP - Pershing Square Janitors:

One of the cool stories from this week was that Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square gives every single employee, including the janitorial staff and receptionists, millions of dollars in company equity.

Will Hunting, in another life, at Pershing Square

M&A Transactions💭 

The Warehousing Portfolio in Chennai and Kolkata was acquired for INR 15.0B by Logicap.

oOh!media (ASX: OML), operates a network of out-of-home advertising sites, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 1.04B by I Squared Capital. UBS Group advised on the sale.

Woojin Electric, manufacturer of power equipment and electrical components, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for KRW 300.0B by Co-Stone Capital. EV/EBITDA was 10.0x.

Varex Imaging (NAS: VREX), manufactures, sells, and services X-ray imaging components, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.17B by Teledyne Technologies (NYS: TDY). EV/EBITDA was 14.63x and EV/Revenue was 1.35x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Moneris Solutions, provider of payment processing services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 2.0B by Francisco Partners. BMO Capital Markets, PJT Partners, and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

MarineMax (NYS: HZO), sells new and used recreational boats, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Safe Harbor Marinas. EV/EBITDA was 12.75x and EV/Revenue was 0.68x. Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Kashiv BioSciences, provider of pharmaceutical research and drug delivery services, was acquired for $1.1B by Amneal Pharmaceuticals (NAS: AMRX). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Hansen & Adkins Auto Transport, provider of vehicle transportation services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $152.1M by Proficient Auto Logistics (NAS: PAL). The company will receive a contingent payout of $22.1M upon the achievement of near-term EBITDA targets.

First State Bank (OTCM: TYFG), a bank holding company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $204.6M by HBT Financial (NAS: HBT). EV/Net Income was 13.13x and EV/Revenue was 2.93x. Performance Trust Capital Partners advised on the sale.

Two Special Purpose Vehicles of Dilip Buildcon were acquired by Alpha Alternatives Holdings for INR 84.0B. JM Financial advised on the sale.

DBM Global (OTCM: DBMG), engaged in providing construction and superior asset management solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $650.0M by IES Holdings (NAS: IESC). Jefferies advised on the sale.

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (NYS: CHMI), a fully integrated, internally managed residential real estate finance company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $257.187M by TPG Mortgage Investment Trust (NYS: MITT). EV/Net Income was 38.88x and EV/Revenue was 7.21x. BTIG advised on the sale.

Bowman Consulting Group (NAS: BWMN), a professional services firm, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $988.97M by Bernhard Capital Partners. The transaction was supported by $550.0M of debt financing. EV/EBITDA was 28.69x and EV/Revenue was 1.87x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Actio Biosciences, developer of genetics-driven precision medicines, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.32B by Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NAS: JAZZ). The company will receive a contingent payout of $500.0M upon the completion of future performance terms. Centerview Partners and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Resonant Sciences, operator of a research and development firm, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $500.0M by Joby Aviation (NYS: JOBY).

Cornell Pump Company, manufacturer of centrifugal pumps, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.46B by Xylem (NYS: XYL). EV/Revenue was 5.62x. Evercore Group and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

ATG Entertainment, operator of a network of performance theatres, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 4.5B by MARI Group. Jefferies, LionTree, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Menck, provider of hydraulic pile driving services, was acquired for EUR 501.0M by Caderler.

Kneat (TSE: KSI), the business of developing and marketing a software application for modeling regulated data-intensive processes for regulated industries, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 650.0M by Thoma Bravo. EV/EBITDA was 66.08x and EV/Revenue was 9.6x. ATB Cormark Capital Markets and CIBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Lancium, developer of a scheduling and orchestration system, has entered into a definitive agreement to be receive $3.0B of financing from Nvidia. As part of the transaction $1.0B will be given after hitting specific grid hookup milestones.

Startorus Fusion, developer of nuclear fusion reactors, raised CNY 880.0M of Series A++ venture funding from Bank of Communications Assets Investments, ABC Financial Assets Investment, and Yongxin Capital.

Point2 Technology, developer of a technology platform, raised $136.0M of Series B venture funding led by LB Investment at a pre-money valuation of $209.0M.

Cambridge Aerospace, developer of interceptor systems, raised $300.0M of Series C venture funding led by DFJ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $3.1B.

Vaderis Therapeutics, developer of oral medicine, raised $152.0M of Series B venture funding led by TCG Crossover Management, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

River AI, developer of personal intelligence software, raised $1.1B of venture funding led by General Catalyst and AMP PBC at a pre-money valuation of $3.9B.

Aureka Biotechnologies, developer of a therapeutics discovery platform, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Highlight Capital.

Neros, manufacturer of unmanned aerial systems, raised $250.0M of Series C venture funding led by American Strategic Technology Fund and Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $2.25B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 79% chance of Jeff Bezos being announced as a new owner in Liverpool in 2026:

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