What you Need to Know for April 22nd

Welcome back!

President Trump has declared a ceasefire extension, as Iran seems unwilling to play ball and present a stance that the President is happy with in negotiations. The U.S. continues to block the Strait of Hormuz until a proposal to end the conflict permanently is submitted by Tehran.

On the Anthropic side, it seems like their dangerous new model Mythos has gotten into the hands of some unauthorized users. A private online forum is reportedly poking around with the tool after being able to guess where the model might’ve been stored from prior model locations.

Separately, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh took some heat from the Senate (Elizabeth Warren screaming), but generally presented himself well. GOP Senator Thom Tillis is blocking his path until the DOJ drops its probe into Powell. Tillis commented to Warsh though, “Let’s get rid of this investigation so I can support your confirmation.”

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the remaining earnings for this week.

• Wednesday: Tesla, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, CME Group, ServiceNow, Boston Scientific Corp, Moody’s, CSX, Kinder Morgan, United Rentals, Waste Connections, Las Vegas Sands, Raymond James, Southwest Airlines, Rogers, Taylor Morrison, Meritage Homes

• Thursday: Intel, American Express, SAP, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Comcast, Freeport-McMoran, Blackstone, Baker Hughes, Comfort Systems, Nasdaq, CBRE, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Fiserv, PulteGroup, Dow, Hasbro, Pool Corp, American Airlines, Boyd Gaming

• Friday: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, Colgate, Charter, Nomura, Moog, Oppenheimer

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Wednesday: March Retail sales (1.5%), March Pending home sales

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210k)

• Friday: April Consumer sentiment (49)

Earnings Corner 💸 

• GE Aerospace $GE ( ▼ 5.56% ) beat on revenue ($11.6B vs. $10.7B) and EPS, driven by surging commercial and defense orders amid continued strength in global air travel demand. Management kept guidance unchanged but and said performance is coming in better than expected, but warned that higher fuel costs tied to the war in the Middle East could lead airlines to cut back flying, reducing demand for GE’s high-margin service and parts business.

• UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▲ 6.97% ) beat on both the top and bottom line, driven by better than expected cost control as its medical benefit ratio came in at 83.9%, alongside solid performance across both insurance and Optum segments as the company stabilizes after last year’s cost issues. The company raised its FY26 EPS outlook to >$18.25, signaling growing confidence in its turnaround and improving margin trajectory.

• United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 1.8% ) beat on both revenue and EPS, driven by strong premium and business travel demand which helped offset a $340M hit from higher fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict. The company cut its FY26 EPS outlook to $7–$11 from $12–$14, and issued weak 2Q guidance as rising fuel prices pressure margins.

• 3M $MMM ( ▼ 1.94% ) slightly missed on revenue ($6.0B) as weakness in Consumer and electronics demand weighed on growth, but beat on EPS with margins improving on strong productivity and cost control. Strength in Safety & Industrial helped offset some of the pressure, while orders rose 10%+ and backlog built, partly driven by pre-buy ahead of price increases tied to $125M in oil related cost inflation.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Avis Budget $CAR ( ▲ 17.28% ) continued its short-squeeze rally, with the stock +81% the past 5 days.

• Hasbro $HAS ( ▼ 4.52% ) slid following a report that Hasbro was pausing order placements from Indian manufacturing supplier Aequs.

• Tractor Supply Co. $TSCO ( ▼ 11.69% ) fell after missing revenue and earnings and posting poor same-store-sales growth.

• Spirit Airlines $FLYYQ ( ▲ 122.22% ) jumped after bailout rumors, as Trump said “maybe the federal government should help that one out.”

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Jersey Mike’s, a Blackstone-backed sandwich chain, confidentially filed for IPO more than a year after its ~$8B take-private deal. The company operates 3,000+ locations, reported $309.8M in 2025 revenue (+10.6% YoY), and is now led by former Wingstop CEO Charlie Morrison.

Btw - here’s a look at how IPO performance has gone so far YTD:

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Kevin Warsh advances a Fed “policy regime change” vision after tense hearing: Despite bipartisan grilling over his relationship with Trump and finances, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh emerged with his overhaul agenda intact. He signaled plans to scrap forward guidance, rethink inflation metrics, and challenge post-crisis orthodoxy if confirmed.

• Deutsche Telekom is exploring a combination with T-Mobile. $DTEGY ( ▼ 1.87% ) already controls $TMUS ( ▼ 1.5% ) with a 53% stake.

• JetBlue isn’t considering filing for bankruptcy this year, with CEO Joanna Geraghty saying the carrier has sufficient liquidity. The company recently secured a $500mm loan backed by aircrafts, and has an option to raise another $250mm.

• Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights to save on soaring jet fuel costs.

• EQT raised $15.6B for its latest Asia PE fund, the largest ever raise for the region. The firm says that investors “are very interested in the Asia region” as tensions and volatility continue to rise elsewhere.

• CCC high yield bonds are lagging behind B and BB tier securities as software companies remain a concern for investors. Distressed loans are also on the rise, nearing their highest level in about three years, with software now accounting for 45% of distressed leveraged loans.

• Baird Capital raised $450mm for its third PE fund, which is 30% larger than its predecessor and was capped at $450mm despite higher demand. The fund will invest in B2B technology and services companies in the U.S. and UK.

• Core Scientific is looking to raise $3.3B from a senior secured HY bond sale to fund AI infrastructure as part of its contract with CoreWeave. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are bookrunners, which has Core Scientific paying back 11.5% of the original amount each year.

  • HY market activity in AI has been extremely hot lately, with CoreWeave and Edged Compute also tapping the market.

• Private credit fundraising stalls: Direct lending fundraising hit a three-year low in Q1, with firms raising only $10.7B after seven consecutive quarters of at least $20B in fundraising.

• Sullivan & Cromwell admits AI “hallucinations” in court filing: The elite law firm apologized to a federal bankruptcy judge after a high-profile Chapter 15 filing misquoted statutes and cited nonexistent cases due to unverified AI output, acknowledging internal policy failures and reviewing safeguards.

• Amazon expands its agreement with Anthropic: Amazon has agreed to invest up to $25B in Anthropic, including $5B now and $20B more that’s tied to commercial milestones. The initial $5B is at Anthropic’s latest valuation of $380B. In return, Anthropic has committed to spending $100B on AWS technologies over the next decade.

• Meta will start tracking employee keystrokes, mouse movements, and screens in order to train its AI. Naturally, Meta employees are privately quite unhappy over this development.

• JPMorgan to add 400 Charlotte jobs: The bank plans to open a 145,000 sq. ft. SouthPark office in early 2028, bringing together ~600 corporate staff and expanding headcount to nearly 1,000 in the city.

• Tim Cook to step down as Apple CEO: After nearly 15 years leading Apple to $4T in market value and $110B+ in annual profit, Tim Cook will become executive chairman in September, with hardware chief John Ternus taking over as CEO.

M&A Transactions💭 

SpaceX is entering into a compute agreement with Cursor that gives the space giant the ability to acquire Cursor for $60.0B.

CarrefourSA Carrefour Sabanci Ticaret Merkezi, operates in the hypermarket and supermarket sectors, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $290.16M by A101 Yeni Magazacilik.

Heritage Commerce, operates as a bank holding company, was acquired for $796.608M by Citizens Business Bank (NAS: CVBF). EV/Net Income was 16.65x and EV/Revenue was 4.03x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Sila Realty Trust (NYS: SILA), a real estate investment trust, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.4B by Blue Owl Capital. EV/EBITDA was 17.0x and EV/Revenue was 12.15x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Rupert Resources (TSE: RUP), engaged in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 2.9B by Agnico Eagle Mines (TSE: AEM). EV/Cash Flow was 59.24x. BMO Capital Markets and Origin Merchant Partners advised on the sale.

Mineracao Serra Verde, operator of a mineral exploration company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.8B by USA Rare Earth (NAS: USAR). Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Brady (NYS: BRC) reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Productivity Solutions and Services Business of Honeywell (NAS: HON) for $1.4B. EV/Revenue was 1.27x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

CathWorks, developer of a computational science platform, was acquired for $585.0M by Medtronic (NYS: MDT).

Bukit Jalil Sentral Property, provider of undisclosed products and services, was acquired for MYR 1.49B by Rukun Juang.

Banca Popolare di Sondrio, offering a broad range of banking products and services, was acquired for EUR 4.3B by BPER Banca (MIL: BPE). EV/Net Income 6.48x and EV/Revenue was 2.48x. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Aurion Resources (TSE: AU), a Canadian exploration company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 434.15M by Agnico Eagle Mines (TSE: AEM). Stifel and Haywood Securities advised on the sale.

Akcansa Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret (IST: AKCNS), manufactures and cells cement, clinker, and ready-mix concrete, a definitive agreement to be acquired for $437.0M by Heidelberg Materials (ETR: HEI). EV/EBITDA was 12.61x and EV/Revenue was 1.77x.

Optum UK, provider of population health management and a business unit of Optum, was acquired by Blackstone and TPG for GBP 1.3B. The transaction was supported by $300.0M of debt financing.

Toyo Denso, manufacturer of electrical components and connection drivers, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 50.55B by Nippon Seiki (TKS: 7287).

Armis, developer of an asset intelligence cybersecurity platform, was acquired for $7.75B by ServiceNow (NYS: NOW). EV/Revenue was 25.83x. Morgan Stanley, Qatalyst Partners, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Recursive Superintelligence, a company currently operating in stealth mode, raised $500.0M of Series A venture funding led by GV at a pre-money valuation $3.5B.

Pulnovo Medical, developer of pulmonary hypertension ablation catheter and instrument, raised $100.0M of Series D venture funding led by Medtronic.

Anthropic, developer of a large language model platform, raised $5.0B of venture funding from Amazon.com. As part of the expanded partnership, Anthropic has committed to spend more than $100.0B over the next ten years on Amazon Web Services (AWS) technologies, including Trainium and Graviton hardware, to train and power its advanced AI models. Amazon has the potential to add up to an additional $20.0B of venture funding in the future.

X Square Robot, developer of foundation model, raised CNY 2.0B of Series B venture funding led by HSG and Xiaomi Strategic Investment.

Reliable Robotics, provider of advanced aircraft automation services, raised $160.0M of venture funding led by Nimble Partners.

Ray Therapeutics, developer of optogenetic gene therapies, raised $125.0M of Series B venture funding led by Janus Henderson Investors.

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Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Data center spend has outpaced office construction spending.

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