The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍
Welcome back! S&P futures are off -0.20% and the Nasdaq is slightly off.
There’s been a few big changes in AI as of late that I have to flag: First, Anthropic firmed up their IPO timing, now expecting a mid October IPO at the earliest, and a prospectus delayed from this week to late September.
The problem? It’s right on the edge with the midterms. As we know, data centers are highly unfavorable and Americans would rather have a nuclear plant in their backyard than a data center! It’s a bit mind-numbing, but semi-understandable given how scary the AI rhetoric has been. It looks like Anthropic wants to get out ahead of any material data center moratorium risk, but a timeline set right before the Midterms could lead to shakier footing.
Secondly, OpenAI’s Astra launched and there’s been overwhelmingly positive reception. More on that below, but Nvidia’s Jensen Huang (definitely an impartial party) has declared that “AGI has arrived” after its launch. So there is a level of hyperbole, but also a level of excitement that hasn’t been felt since Claude’s initial advancements back in late December 2025.
Lastly, Instinct has been creating a lot of buzz as a personal AI agent tool. There’s been two viral debates, one of which included a VC using agentic AI to persistently find video footage (driving a debate about whether agents will blast humans with emails and requests until they get what they want) and another where a VC got banned from Resy for having its agent complete a booking. Clearly, the world is not yet ready for agents flooding the zone and picking off reservations and bookings. And maybe these companies won’t want this and will ban agentic usage of their consumer services? Time will tell.
Housekeeping note - we will condense our Weds/Friday morning letter into a Thursday morning piece due to the shortened week.
Here’s a look at earnings this week.
Tuesday: United Natural Foods, Caseys General, ABM Industries
Wednesday: Chewy, Jersey Mike's, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Signet Jewelers, American Eagle, Cooper Companies, Core & Main
Thursday: Oracle, Adobe, Copart, Macy's, Reformation, Zumiez, Designer Brands, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM
Friday: Kroger Company, Rent the Runway
Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).
Monday: No events scheduled
Tuesday: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, Consumer Credit
Wednesday: No events scheduled
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (208K), PPI (0.4%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI M/M% (0.3%), PPI Y/Y% (5.3%), Monthly Wholesale Trade, Existing Home Sales (3.9M)
Friday: CPI (0.4%), Core CPI M/M% (0.2%), CPI Y/Y% (3.4%), CPI Core Y/Y% (2.4%), U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (52.3), Monthly Treasury Balance
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Earnings Corner 💸
Snowflake $SNOW ( ▼ 5.41% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $1.55B vs. $1.48B and EPS of $0.62 vs. $0.45. Results were driven by accelerating AI adoption, with product revenue up 37% YoY as customers using the company’s AI tools also consumed more of its core data platform. Mgmt. raised FY product revenue and operating margin guidance, while shares jumped as AI accounted for roughly half of the quarter’s growth acceleration, showing that AI is increasing rather than replacing demand for the platform.
Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 0.21% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $29.6B vs. $29.45B and EPS of $3.32. AI semiconductor revenue jumped 221% YoY to $16.7B on strong custom accelerator and networking demand, but the overall beat was relatively modest given high AI expectations. Mgmt. guided Q4 revenue below expectations at $34.8B vs. $35.05B, weighing on shares.
Lululemon $LULU ( ▼ 17.38% ) missed on the top line but beat on the bottom line, with revenue of $2.42B vs. $2.46B and EPS of $2.06 vs. $1.79. Results were pressured by 9% comp declines as weaker product launches, negative brand sentiment and rising competition hurt demand, while customers shifted away from tight leggings toward looser styles, driving leggings sales down ~20%. Mgmt. cut guidance as the turnaround is taking longer than expected, sending shares lower.
Victoria’s Secret & Co $VSXY ( ▲ 2.61% ) Revenue missed expectations at $1.61B vs. $1.62B, while EPS of $0.95 beat. Results were driven by 9% comp growth, with stronger regular-price selling, better traffic and broad-based growth across bras, PINK and Beauty, while lower promotions helped expand margins. Mgmt. raised FY guidance, but shares fell as sales growth slowed from Q1 and results failed to clear already elevated expectations.
Hewlett Packard $HPE ( ▼ 4.48% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $12.21B vs. $12.09B. Results were driven by strong Cloud & AI demand, led by better than expected server sales as customers ramped spending on AI infrastructure. Shares rose as revenue and earnings hit records, though mgmt. said supply constraints are still limiting how quickly the company can meet demand.
Five Below $FIVE ( ▲ 5.1% ) beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $1.26B vs. $1.22B. Results were driven by 14.1% comp growth as trendy and licensed products drove stronger traffic and repeat visits, while better merchandise margins and fixed cost leverage boosted profitability. Mgmt. raised FY guidance above expectations.
Docusign $DOCU ( ▲ 3.7% ) top and bottom line beat, with revenue of $875.7M and EPS of $1.16. Results were driven by growing adoption of its AI-powered Intelligent Agreement Management platform, which rose to 15.1% of ARR from 12.6% last qrt., while operating margin expanded and FCF jumped as AI tools broadened DocuSign beyond e-signatures into more contract workflows. Mgmt. raised guidance.
On The Move 📈 📉
Uber $UBER ( ▼ 0.26% ) rose on news of cutting 3,300 employees, or 10% of its workforce, to cut costs and make the company “simpler and faster.” This move shrinks management by 20% and sharply curtails remote work.
Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▼ 16.68% ) crashed after FHFA Director Bill Pulte directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept Vantage credit scores as an alternative to FICO for mortgage loans.
Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 5.35% ) fell after hiking UK subscription prices across all tiers, including a 33% jump on the ad-supported tier. The UK is Netflix’s second-largest market and ~20% of EMEA revenue.
ChargePoint $CHPT ( ▲ 8.92% ) surged after Q2 revenue jumped 18% to $116.1M and beat estimates with adj EBITDA loss narrowing 78% to $4.8M.
Campbell’s $CPB ( ▼ 3.37% ) fell as the company cut more than 550 jobs (~13% of its salaried workforce) and slashed its quarterly dividend by 36% to 25 cents a share, with a Q4 loss of $69M.
Guidewire Software $GWRE ( ▼ 19.94% ) plummeted after Q3 revenue guide of $375M came in 3.3% below consensus. The miss raised demand concerns despite a Q2 beat and 20.3% ARR growth to $1.24B.
UiPath $PATH ( ▼ 16.63% ) tumbled after Q2 earnings failed to ease competitive concerns. Canaccord downgraded to Hold from Buy, flagging Salesforce’s Anthropic partnership as a growing threat.
IPO Roundup 📍
Oura filed for a US IPO, revealing new income of $60.8MM for the 9 months ended June 30, up sharply from $1.6MM from a year earlier. Revenue also jumped 74% YoY to $1.21Bn.
Nscale is raising up to $3.5B in pre-IPO financing via $1.5B in convertible notes led by Daniel Loeb’s Third Point plus ~$2B from Nvidia. The London-based AI cloud firm is briefing investors on a $103B contract backlog and projected $18.1B in annual revenue, following its $45B Anthropic compute deal.
Moonshot AI is eyeing a $3-5B Hong Kong IPO as soon as this year after confidentially filing. The AI lab recently hit a $35B valuation and is reaching out to potential backers for a new funding round at a $50B pre-money valuation.
Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, claiming state-of-the-art results including a 98% score on FrontierMath Tier 4, 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3, and 100% on ExploitBench, and completed OSWorld 2.0 tasks in around half the time of its prior model.
The US added 162k jobs in August, far exceeding the 53k forecast, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%, easing fears the labor market was cooling after weak June and July readings.
Hunter Biden is launching a meme coin called “Laptop” on Coinbase’s Base blockchain on September 9. 20% of the token supply will be airdropped to people who lost money on $TRUMP, and founders hold 30% locked for six months.
Abu Dhabi AI firm G42 is exploring selling a majority stake to American companies to guarantee chip access beyond April 2027. Options include bringing in a US company as majority shareholder or setting up a new vehicle in America.
Anthropic is reportedly building in-house billing and financial infrastructure to reduce its reliance on Stripe. The AI firm is hiring billing engineers, fraud specialists, and treasury talent to build custom systems.
BofA is tapping three senior bankers to sharpen its focus on the “AI ecosystem.” Gregg Nabhan, Jill Schwartz, and Ray Wood will deepen client relationships across industrials, power, energy, real estate, and financial services.
PIMCO president Christian Stracke says some collateralized fund obligations and synthetic risk transfers echo pre-GFC subprime structures. Investors are underpricing risk to get embedded leverage, though Stracke says the risk isn’t systemic.
Blue Owl Capital is planning to create a publicly traded data center REIT. The vehicle will be seeded with $6.5B of Blue Owl’s own data center assets and follows Blackstone’s $2B blind-pool REIT.
Morgan Stanley Research expects US caffeinated beverage spending to grow 6% annually through 2030, nearly double the broader food and restaurant industry. Energy drinks lead the category at 8% growth.
Chris Rokos, a hedge fund billionaire, is leaving the UK for Greece as high-profile financiers keep exiting over Labour tax hike fears. Greece offers wealthy foreign investors a flat €100,000 annual tax on foreign earnings for up to 15 years.
Fed Cleveland President Beth Hammack says “it’s time to act” on inflation, given that monetary policy isn’t sufficiently restraining the economy. Hammack was one of the three dissenters against July’s hold, as markets now price a rate hike at above 60%.
David Sullivan and Daniel Kretinsky increased their West Ham stake to 40% and 46%, respectively, with Kretinsky becoming the club’s largest shareholder, after both bought shares from Vanessa Gold under West Ham’s pre-emption process.
DoubleLine’s Robert Cohen sees value in top-rated tech debt after the AI-driven selloff, calling Alphabet and Amazon “very good credits.” Tech IG bonds trade ~10bps wider than the broader market, and Alphabet’s 10-year now yields as much as the index average despite carrying a much higher AA+ rating.
Soaring student debt is driving Americans into the US military, which just hit its best recruiting cycle in 15 years. The share of recruits choosing loan repayment over signing bonuses jumped from 6% historically to 25-59%.
Noteworthy Chart 🧭
M&A Transactions💭
LivePerson, provider of digital customer conversation software, was acquired for $434.76M by SoundHound AI (NAS: SOUN). EV/Revenue was 1.51x. Houlihan Lokey and Lazard advised on the sale.
Apogee Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, was acquired for $10.125B by AbbVie (NYS: ABBV). Jefferies and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
DCX, manufacturer of liquid cooling systems for data centers and high-performance computing, has reached a definitive agreement to sell a 25% stake for approximately $176.0M to Lite-On Technology (TAI: 2301), implying a post money valuation of $704.0M.
EPC Power, manufacturer of power electronics technology, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.4B by Flex (NAS: FLEX). EV/Revenue was 5.50x. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.
Fidelity Life Assurance, provider of life insurance services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for NZD 630.0M by Partners Life, via its financial sponsor Dai-ichi Life Group.
Hugging Face, developer of a machine-learning community platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $12.93B by NVIDIA (NAS: NVDA).
Kanebridge, distributor of industrial fasteners, was acquired for approximately $315.0M by Hillman Solutions (NAS: HLMN). EV/Revenue was 4.85x. Jefferies advised on the sale.
Sweep.io, developer of CRM software, was acquired for an estimated $400.0M by ServiceNow (NYS: NOW).
A1 Garage Door Service, provider of garage door repair and replacement services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired through a $2.0B LBO by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
Arc Resources (TSE: ARX), oil and gas producer, was acquired for $16.44B by Shell (LON: SHEL). EV/EBITDA was 5.98x and EV/Revenue was 2.83x. Richardson Barr advised on the sale.
Birch Permian, operator of an oil and gas company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.8B by Diversified Energy (NYS: DEC). Huron Transaction Advisory and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.
Hot Topic, specialty retailer of apparel and accessories, was acquired for $350.0M by Spencer Gifts. Jefferies and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.
InBankshares (OTCM: INBC), commercial bank, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $198.0M by First National Bank of Omaha.
Lovelytics, operator of a data and analytics consultancy, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $525.0M by CDW (NAS: CDW).
Meals Through Seasons, provider of agricultural supply chain and cold-chain logistics services, was acquired for $510.0M by Ming Shing Group Holdings (NAS: MSW). The consideration was paid entirely in securities, including $150.0M in shares and $360.0M in convertible promissory notes.
MicroAge, provider of managed IT services, was acquired for $220.5M by ScanSource (NAS: SCSC).
Milliman Retirement Plan and Benefits Administration Business, operator of a retirement plan and benefits administration business, was acquired for $340.0M by Empower Retirement. Chesky Partners advised on the sale.
Pyxis Lab, manufacturer of smart water analysis sensors and handheld devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $200.0M by Halma (LON: HLMA).
Utility Innovation Group, provider of energy services for electric-grid infrastructure, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for approximately $1.45B by Vertiv (NYS: VRT). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.
Al-Hilal Club, operator of a football club, was acquired through a SAR 840.0M LBO by Kingdom Holding Company, which acquired a 70% stake. The transaction valued the company at SAR 1.2B.
Alesta Therapeutics, developer of a small-molecule biotechnology program, was acquired for EUR 275.0M by BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NAS: BMRN). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
Alexander Mann Solutions (England), provider of recruiting, staffing, and human-resource services, was acquired for GBP 1.1B by Korn Ferry (NYS: KFY).
Angels Baseball Club, operator of a professional baseball franchise, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.0B by Ball Arena.
Concord Music, operator of an independent music and theatrical-rights company, was acquired for $7.0B by BMG Rights Management, a subsidiary of Bertelsmann. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, was acquired for $10.0B by Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NAS: VRTX). EV/Revenue was 185.79x. J.P. Morgan and Leerink Partners advised on the sale.
eCential Robotics, developer of imaging technology, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 155.0M by Enovis (NYS: ENOV). Apparius dvised on the sale.
Epsilon Industries, manufacturer of modular mechanical and electrical systems, was acquired for $295.0M by Everus Construction Group (NYS: ECG). EV/Revenue was 1.18x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.
GoPro (NAS: GPRO), manufacturer of cameras and related products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $264.04M by Starman Holding, who will be cquire a 90% stake. EV/Revenue was 0.47x. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.
Hurst Point Group, provider of wealth management services, was acquired through a GBP 580.74M LBO by Shackleton, via its financial sponsor Lee Equity Partners. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.
Inversis, provider of technology and outsourcing services for financial institutions, had a 41% stake acquired for EUR 221.0M by Euroclear, increasing its ownership to 90%.
Kiavi, operator of a technology-enabled lending platform, was acquired for $717.0M by Figure Technology Solutions (NAS: FIGR). Jefferies advised on the sale.
MatrixCare Holdings, developer of cloud-based long-term post-acute care software and a subsidiary of ResMed, was acquired through a $490.0M LBO by Frazier Healthcare Partners. EV/Revenue was 2.23x. Ord Minnett advised on the sale.
Pacific Financial, bank holding company, was acquired for $188.22M by Banner Bank (NAS: BANR). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.
Secure Energy Services, operator of waste-management and energy-infrastructure businesses, was acquired for CAD 6.107B by GFL Environmental (NYS: GFL). EV/EBITDA was 14.39x and EV/Revenue was 1.94x. Moelis & Company and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.
Unacademy, developer of an online learning platform, was acquired for an estimated $206.0M by upGrad. EV/Revenue was 4.58x.
Affordable Wire Management, manufacturer of cable-management hardware for utility-scale solar projects, was acquired for an estimated $203.0M by Array Technologies (NAS: ARRY). EV/Revenue was 3.38x. First Liberties Financial advised on the sale.
Associated Steel Group, manufacturer of structural steel components, was acquired for $347.0M by Hanwa American, a subsidiary of Hanwa (TKS: 8078), and Development Bank of Japan.
FloWorks International, distributor of flow-control products and technical services, was acquired for an estimated $1.6B by Ferguson Enterprises (NYS: FERG). Jefferies Financial Group and Solomon Partners advised on the sale.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Gimlet Labs, developer of a cloud platform for artificial intelligence infrastructure, raised $300.0M of Series B venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz at a post-money valuation of $3.0B.
Los Tacos No. 1, operator of a Tijuana-style taco restaurant chain, received a strategic investment from TSG Consumer. East Wind Advisors advised on the transaction.
Crusoe, operator of artificial intelligence infrastructure, raised $3.0B of venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners and Atreides Management at a post-money valuation of $30.0B.
Quantum Motion, developer of scalable quantum computing technology, raised GBP 117.72M of Series C venture funding through a combination of debt and equity.
slice, developer of a digital financial services platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Neo Wealth Partners at a post-money valuation of $450.0M.
Cornerstone Robotics, manufacturer of medical robotic devices, raised over $700.0M of venture funding from Medtronic (Shanghai).
HiddenLayer, developer of cybersecurity software for artificial intelligence systems, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Delta-v Capital, with participation from M12, Booz Allen Ventures, and Ten Eleven Ventures.
HyImpulse, developer of aerospace technologies, raised an estimated EUR 95.0M of Series A venture funding led by Join Capital, Ace Capital Partners, and Campus Founders.
iPronics, developer of general-purpose integrated photonics technology, raised $125.0M of Series B venture funding led by Maverick Silicon and Light Street Capital Management.
Lyte, developer of a unified perception platform, raised $165.0M of Series C venture funding led by Maverick Silicon at a post-money valuation of $1.6B.
Upwind Security, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised an estimated $300.0M of venture funding led by TCV and Bessemer Venture Partners at a post-money valuation of $3.8B.
Wonderful, developer of an artificial intelligence operations platform, raised $550.0M of Series C venture funding led by Insight Partners at a post-money valuation of $5.0B.
Félix, developer of a chat-based money transfer platform, raised $200.0M through a combination of debt and equity, including an $87.0M Series C led by Andreessen Horowitz.
ProducePay, provider of specialized financing services for the agricultural industry, raised $140.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by Avenue Capital Group and Astanor.
Rillet, developer of accounting software, raised $100.11M of Series C venture funding led by ICONIQ Growth at a post-money valuation of $1.0B.
Kling AI, developer of generative artificial intelligence technology, raised over CNY 1.5B of venture funding from CP Robotics and The National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund Partnership.
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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket