The Week Ahead - September 21st

Together with Pegasus

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

We’ve seen a pretty sizable rally following the 25bps rate cut on Wednesday, with a lot of risk assets and even some very low revenue companies skyrocketing. Yes, that’s us throwing shade on the whole “quantum computing” company rally. Unlike the very real AI tailwinds shaking up the world, we view some of these smaller quantum computing players as the equivalent of the initial bitcoin craze in 2017 where “Long island iced tea corp.” rebranded into a blockchain company.

But by many measures, it seems like we’re far away from peak bubble behavior. In fact, an internal polling of our Instagram audience believed we are in the “6th inning” of the rally. Momentum is strong, AI startup fundraising is robust, and the start of some rate cuts is fueling a better financing market. All of this is in the face of eventual tariff-related inflation and a weakening consumer - but the “everything is computer” trade continues to hold strong.

Futures are little changed. Let’s get into it.

Remember, we’re running searches for a few private credit jobs - with origination roles in Cali and DC, an entry-level analyst role in Dallas, and a Credit Analyst role in NYC. Apply directly through those links.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: PACS Group, Lifezone Metals

• Tuesday: AutoZone, Nebius, Micron

• Wednesday: Cintas Corporation, KB Home, Thor Industries

• Thursday: Costco, Accenture, Jabil, TD SYNNEX, CarMax, BlackBerry

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: New York Fed President John Williams speech, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, Fed governor Stephen Miran speech, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech

• Tuesday: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech, S&P flash U.S. services PMI (53.8), S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (51.5), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

• Wednesday: New home sales (650,000), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

• Thursday: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech, Initial jobless claims (235,000), GDP third estimate Q2 (3.3%), Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Advanced wholesale inventories, Durable-goods orders (-0.5%), Durable-goods minus transportation, New York Fed President John Williams opening remarks, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech, Existing home sales (3.95 million), Fed gov. Michael Barr speech, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

• Friday: Personal income (0.3%), Personal spending (0.5%), PCE index Aug (0.3%), PCE year-over-year (2.7%), Core PCE index Aug (0.2%), Core PCE year-over-year (2.9%), Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech, Consumer sentiment final (55.4), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech

Liquidity Management for the PE Backed CFO

In an LBO, Cash is king. 

Pegasus Insights is a next-gen liquidity management platform purpose-built by Finance experts for Finance Leaders, Deal, PE-backed CFOs, Deal Teams, and Operating Partners.

Pegasus delivers:

• Lighting fast cash and liquidity forecasting

• Real-time visibility into cash

• Seamless collaboration

• Actionable levers to improve your Cash conversion cycle

Model faster, decide easier, and stay ahead.

Now live → Book a demo and see it in action.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Fedex $FDX ( ▲ 2.32% ) The company delivered a top and bottom line beat, with revenue of $22.2B and EPS of $3.83, both ahead of estimates. Net income rose to $820M on stronger package demand and cost discipline as U.S. volumes grew 6%. Still $150M in global trade headwinds and the loss of the U.S. de minimis rule (duty-free imports under $800) weighed on results. Management guided FY26 revenue growth of 4–6% and EPS of $17.20–$19.00, while also moving forward with the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight in 2026.

Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 4.18% ) The housing giant posted a slight revenue miss at $8.8B, while EPS beat at $2.29 vs. $2.10. Results were lifted by a $99M gain on tech investments, including $71M from Opendoor, but margins slipped to 17.5% as heavy buyer incentives weighed. Management expects Q4 margins to hold at that level, with home deliveries coming in below consensus.

We just improved our WSR Investing Club Offer.

For a limited time you can upgrade to our paid newsletter for 50% off! Yes, you can get our deeper, stock market research for 50% off! Join the WSR Investing Club today.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Government shutdown odds are rising: A funding shutdown is approaching. After rejecting a GOP bill, top Democrats trying to meet with Trump to prevent the shutdown, arguing that healthcare funding for the ACA and medicaid needs to be included in a stopgap funding bill. Kalshi odds have it at 63%!

• Oracle’s next big deal: Oracle is in talks with Meta on a multi-year agreement worth about $20 billion to provide computing power for training and deploying AI models.

• Private credit is going big: Direct lenders are targeting large public companies like Dropbox and Harley-Davidson with fast, flexible loans as more than $800B of corporate debt comes due by 2027. Public firms, once reliant on banks, are increasingly turning to private markets for tailored financing despite higher costs

• Private credit is flashing warning signs: Defaults are rising, losses just topped $1B, and more borrowers are deferring interest payments. With $170B of debt maturing in the next two years, lenders face mounting pressure despite a large pool of dry powder

• Private credit is also booming on thin spreads: Blackstone says its loans pay 150–200 basis points more than public debt, drawing a surge of demand from pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and insurers. The firm predicts the $2 trillion market could balloon to $30 trillion, fueled by lending for AI-driven data centers and a revival in M&A

• Big investors are meeting less with companies: BlackRock and Vanguard cut company meetings by nearly half this year after new SEC guidance made it riskier to weigh in on strategy, climate, or diversity. The shift could leave executives with less feedback and more surprise votes at shareholder meetings

• Amex has unveiled their refreshed Platinum Card: The card now carries a $895 annual fee and has an array of additional benefits, including enhanced hotel and digital entertainment credits and new credits to Resy, lululemon, Uber One, and ŌURA

• Trump to impose a $100k fee for new H-1B worker visas, a big hit to companies who rely on highly skilled immigrants from countries such as India and China. Companies in tech and finance have benefited the most from the program - Amazon awarded more than 10k H-1B visas in 2024, the most of any company. Existing visa holders will not be affected, and the $100k fee will come as a one-time charge

• Inflation refund checks are coming to New York: More than 8M residents will start receiving one-time payments of $150 to $400 at the end of September, with eligibility based on 2023 tax filings. Governor Kathy Hochul says the program is the state’s first-ever effort to return excess sales-tax revenue generated by inflation

• The Murdochs are among those involved in TikTok deal: Trump announced that conservative media baron Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan, who is currently executive chair and CEO of Fox Corporation, will be part of the group who brings TikTok ownership to the U.S. Oracle chairman Larry Ellison and Dell CEO Michal Dell are also likely to be involved

• The BLS is postponing an annual report on consumer expenditures, with limited explanation about the delay or new timing. The most crucial inflation data reporting remains intact - but this is worth monitoring given changes at the BLS

• Luxury reshuffle: Saks Global is in talks to sell 49% of Bergdorf Goodman for about $1B to cut debt after the Neiman Marcus deal, keeping the Fifth Avenue real estate while courting Middle Eastern sovereign funds and other strategics, with a deal possible early next year

• Apollo is weighing a $1.5B sale of AOL: AOL would be spun out of Yahoo, an Apollo portfolio company. The company generates around $400mm in annual EBITDA through its software for internet security and the AOL.com website and email domain

  • Meanwhile, Apollo is eyeing a majority stake in Atlético Madrid, one of the largest Spanish football clubs. The investment would be part of Apollo’s new sports fund and would help finance a major redevelopment project for Atlético, who is creating a mixed-use “sports city” around its stadium

• Debt drama hits First Brands: Apollo and Diameter have closed shorts against the auto-parts maker as its $2B loan due 2027 collapsed to under 50 cents

  • This comes after Octus reported that First Brands and Lenders are working on a deal to address ‘27 maturities. PGIM, CIFC, Blackstone, AGL, and Sound Point are among the largest holders.

• IPO Latest:

  • Collision repair giant eyes Wall Street debut: Caliber Holdings, the Hellman & Friedman–backed owner of the largest North American autobody repair network, is weighing an IPO as soon as 2026. H&F has tapped BofA, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan to work on the listing, which could raise several hundred million dollars

  • Yesway, a convenience store chain, is gearing up to raise $300mm in an IPO. Timing is as soon as later this year or in early 2026. MS, JPM, and GS are on the listing

  • Pattern Group’s IPO was a success, pricing at $13.50/share and trading $2+ higher after the Amazon reseller raised $300mm $PTRN ( ▲ 11.64% )  

  • Netskope’s IPO traded higher after initially pricing at $19/share and raising $900mm+ for the cybersecurity firm

  • BitGo, a crypto custody company, has filed for a US IPO as well, reporting $90B in assets under custody

  • Andersen, a tax advisory firm descending from Arthur Andersen, filed for a $100mm IPO as well

M&A Transactions💭 

Waga Energy (PAR: WAGA), an independent biomethane producer, was acquired for EUR 368.0M by EQT. Lazard advised on the sale.

Monaco Telecom, provider of telecom services, was acquired for CHF 585.1M by Salt Mobile.

MCL Land, provider of property development services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for MYR 2.42B by Sunway (KLS: 5211).

Hydra-Stop, manufacturer of water control values and systems, was acquired for $290.0M by Pentair (NYS: PNR). EV/Revenue was 5.8x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

DX, developer of an insights platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.0B by Atlassian (NAS: TEAM).

Curtis, manufacturer of industrial controllers and integrated systems, was acquired for $1.0B by Parker-Hannifin (NYS: PH). EV/Revenue was 3.13x. Bank of America, Guggenheim Securities, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Concrete Pipe & Precast, manufacturer of concrete products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $675.0M by Commercial Metals (NYS: CMC).

Alianca Geracao de Energia, operator of an energy production company, was acquired for $1.0B by Global Infrastructure Partners. Morgan Stanley and Banco Itau BBA advised on the sale.

Prepared, developer of an AI-powered platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $800.0M by Axon Enterprise (NAS: AXON).

Israel Credit Cards, provider of banking and financial services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for ILS 2.7B by Harel Insurance Investments & Financial Services (TAE: HARL) and JTLV Fund.

Enfabrica, developer of converged networking and memory fabric silicon and software, was acquired for $900.0M by Nvidia (NAS: NVDA).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Aalo Atomics, manufacturer of compact nuclear power systems, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Climate Capital, Summer Capital, Valor Equity Partners at a pre-money valuation of $350.0M.

TeraWatt Technology, manufacturer of rechargeable batteries, raised an estimated $101.9M through a combination of Series C and Series C-1 venture funding from Development Bank of Japan, Inpex, and Rakuten Capital.

FerroptoCure, developer of therapeutic drugs designed to develop anticancer therapies, raised $460.0M of Series A venture funding from Tokyo University of Science Innovation Capital, Vision Incubate, and Diamond Medino Capital.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Finance Jobs: Looking for a job in Finance? Join Buyside Hub to access the Job Board for free.

Upgrade to the WSR Investing Club: Wall Street Rollup readers get 40% off for their first 12 months. Receive high-conviction stock research & analysis to help you cut through the noise.

Autopilot Portfolio Update: High Yield Harry recently launched 4 portfolios on Autopilot including The Golden Age of Private Credit portfolio and the Tariff Trade portfolio. You can autopilot my trades and strategies by signing up here.

Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page deck for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks.

Join beehiiv: Looking to start your own newsletter? Join beehiiv through us and you’ll get 30 days free and 3 months of a 20% discount.

Join our Referral Program and Gain WSR Investing Club Access ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.

Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.