The Week Ahead - October 18th

Monday: Fifth Third Bancorp, Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Crown Holdings, Cleveland Cliffs

Tuesday: GE Aerospace, Netflix, General Motors, Capital One, RTX Corporation, 3M, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Northrop Grumman, Chubb, Halliburton, Synchrony Financial,

Wednesday: Meta Platforms, Tesla, Lam, Thermo Fisher, SAP SE, Texas Instruments, International Business Machines, Abbott Laboratories, Moody's, AT&T, Philip Morris International, NextEra Energy, Abbott, Elevance Health, Southwest Airlines, CSX

Thursday: Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Spotify, Blackstone, Western Digital, Comcast, Valero Energy, Newmont, Honeywell, Norfolk Southern, Barclays, Nasdaq, Bloom Energy, American Airlines

Friday: American Express, Eni, First Citizens BancShares, Autoliv, SLB Limited, Rogers Communication, Dr. Reddy's Laboratorie

Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index (31)

Tuesday: Housing Starts (1.3M), Pending Home Sales Idx M/M% (-0.3%)

Wednesday: No events scheduled

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (200K), Leading Indicators (-0.1%), Kansas City Fed Survey

Friday: US Flash Manufacturing PMI (55.3), US Flash Services PMI (58.1), U. Michigan Final Consumer Survey (46.3)

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 2.28% ) Revenue beat at $46.72B and EPS also beat estimates at $4.60. Results were driven by strong demand for its most advanced chips, as customers like Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom continue ramping AI infrastructure spending. Demand is still running ahead of available capacity, pushing the company to keep investing heavily in new fabs and advanced manufacturing. The company maintained its capex budget and expects spending through 2028 to rise further, while mgmt. guided Q4 revenue to $52.3B–$54.3B, above expectations, and raised FY26 revenue growth guidance.

Charles Schwab $SCHW ( ▼ 2.34% ) slightly missed on revenue but beat on adjusted EPS at $1.69. Results were driven by record $190.4B of core net new assets, a 44% jump in trading activity and higher interest income, but slower client cash growth increased reliance on more expensive funding and pressured margins. Mgmt. now expects FY26 revenue and expense growth toward the low ends of prior guidance.

Bank Of New York Mellon $BNY ( ▲ 0.85% ) Revenue and EPS beat. Results were driven by broad based growth in servicing and wealth businesses, higher market values, stronger client activity and 15% growth in net interest income as maturing securities were reinvested at higher yields. Assets under custody and administration reached $63.4T, and mgmt. raised its FY26 outlook to nearly 500 bps of positive operating leverage and 15% NII growth.

U.S. Bancorp $USB ( ▲ 2.34% ) Slightly missed on revenue at $7.97B vs. $7.99B but beat on adjusted EPS at $1.34. Results were driven by growth in net interest income from loan growth and asset repricing, while fee revenue rose on stronger payments, treasury management and capital markets activity, with the BTIG acquisition helping capital markets revenue jump 69% YoY. Average loans grew and credit quality improved, though higher expenses and provisions partially offset the gains.

Interactive Brokers $IBKR ( ▼ 3.88% ) Beat on revenue at $1.91B and slightly missed on EPS at $0.67. Results were driven by 30%+ growth in customer accounts, 18% higher trading activity and 47% growth in margin loans, which helped commissions rise and net interest income increase as customers borrowed and held more assets on the platform. Mgmt. also raised the quarterly dividend 71%, while continuing to expand overnight trading, crypto and AI-enabled trading products.

M&T Bank Corp $MTB ( ▼ 1.54% ) Beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $2.55B and adjusted EPS of $5.08 vs. $4.98. Results were driven by solid commercial real estate and consumer loan growth, while stronger deposits reduced reliance on short-term funding. Higher deposit costs pressured margins, but credit remained stable. Mgmt. guided Q4 net interest income to $1.83B–$1.85B.

Citizens Financial $CFG ( ▼ 0.11% ) Slightly missed on revenue at $2.32B vs. $2.33B but beat on EPS at $1.41. Results were driven by growth in net interest income, helped by loan growth and a higher net interest margin, while credit quality improved as charge-offs declined. Higher funding costs remained a headwind, but mgmt. still raised the quarterly dividend to $0.52/share.

Truist Financial $TFC ( ▲ 1.07% ) Missed on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $5.19B. The miss was driven by securities losses and higher costs, which outweighed stronger net interest income, deposit growth and a record quarter in wealth management. Mgmt. is also selling $7.7B of unsecured consumer loans and guided Q4 revenue to roughly $5.35B.

Regions Financial $RF ( ▲ 0.51% ) Missed on revenue at $1.97B but beat on EPS. Revenue missed as net interest income came in slightly light and loan growth slowed, especially in consumer lending, but earnings were supported by a higher net interest margin, record capital markets and treasury management revenue, and lower charge offs. Mgmt. expects Q4 net interest income and net interest margin to rise.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 11.91% ) and Nebius $NBIS ( ▼ 12.18% ) each fell more than 25% this week as concerns over AI financing and circular deals hit the AI trade, though analysts were calling the selloff “just another scare.”

Energy stocks $COP ( ▲ 3.37% ), $EOG ( ▲ 4.23% ), $FANG ( ▲ 4.27% ), and $EQT ( ▲ 3.53% ) rose after Brent crude topped $110 as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Bending Spoons $BSP ( ▼ 15.6% ) pulled back after surging 41% earlier in the week on Berkshire Hathaway’s $330mm investment.

Crypto stocks $RIOT ( ▼ 11.48% ), $CIFR ( ▼ 10.56% ), $CLSK ( ▼ 10.16% ), and $MSTR ( ▼ 9.56% ) sold off after MSCI tightened its index rules for companies holding large crypto reserves, putting Strategy at risk of removal in November.

Anthropic IPO latest: Some Anthropic investors now see a $1.5T IPO, not $2T following the Company;s investor day last week.

Microsoft pulled out of a UK data center deal with neocloud Nscale, a setback for its IPO hopes. Some investors are also urging Nscale to cut its valuation target to $16-19Bn from as much as $35Bn. Its flagship Norway site is six months behind schedule, and the company has built less than 1% of its targeted capacity so far.

City Therapeutics, an early-stage RNAi drug developer, jumped 24% in its Nasdaq debut after raising $200mm in an upsized IPO priced at $18.

US banks are blocking AI agents that try to move money for customers. Schwab CEO Rick Wurster says the firm is stopping unauthorized agents, including Meta’s Muse. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also said he won’t give outside agents free rein with customer account information.

J.P. Morgan says earnings will decide how long stocks can shrug off hot inflation and high yields. Consensus still calls for S&P 500 earnings to grow about 30% this quarter.

DeepSeek released V4.1-Flash-1017, an updated AI model it says is faster and leaner. The Chinese company says it delivers “substantial improvements across reasoning, coding, agentic tasks, and visual benchmarks.”

Ares says private credit has beaten public credit once cash flow timing is matched. Senior direct lending funds launched from 2015 to 2020 outperformed a leveraged loan ETF by a median 3.3% a year, an edge that narrows but generally holds after adjusting for leverage.

Poppi is underperforming expectations, cutting the earnout value as growth has fallen short. Investors are also losing patience with PepsiCo as it falls behind Coca-Cola. The stock is down about a third from its 2023 peak, and CEO Ramon Laguarta admitted “we’re not competing well in soft drinks.”

The proposed PWP-Piper Sandler merger collapsed after senior Perella bankers rejected retention packages as too low, with top producers offered $2.5M in combined-company shares to stay for up to three years.

Smaller private equity firms are under mounting pressure from higher borrowing costs and delayed exits, as fundraising totaled $222Bn through September versus $330Bn in all of 2025. New State Capital Partners has lost 1/3 of its staff over the past year, including two of its three founding partners.

Oaktree’s agreement to buy a controlling stake in A-Cap’s Atlantic Coast Life Insurance has collapsed after South Carolina regulators raised concerns over its exposure to defunct 777 Partners.

Partners Group is blocking hedge funds from buying the loans of portfolio companies Emeria, Ammega, and Breitling through approved lender lists as it works to refinance €6Bn ($6.7Bn) of debt due in 2028.

Pizza Hut is in early talks with ABS investors ahead of a possible whole-business securitization to finance LongRange Capital’s $1.5Bn buyout of its operations outside mainland China.

KKR-backed venture firm Catalio Capital Management is looking to raise $500M for its Nexus V fund to back AI healthcare startups after selling three portfolio companies for more than $8Bn this year.

Volta AI sold its $5Bn AI loan at 6.5 points over the benchmark and 95 cents on the dollar, pushing yields past the 11% initially expected and adding early-repayment penalties.

Hain Celestial is weighing a Chapter 11 filing as soon as next month after lenders missed the October 12 deadline to extend its December debt maturity.

Thoma Bravo-backed Proofpoint has locked in $1.25Bn of financing for its $6.3Bn cash acquisition of Varonis, with JPMorgan and UBS leading a later high-yield bond sale.

The AI industry is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to shape the 2026 midterms. Companies are split between pushing for strong federal rules and keeping regulation to a minimum.