The Week Ahead - October 12th

Tuesday: JP Morgan Chase & Co, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Domino's, Albertsons Companies

Wednesday: ASML Holding, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Progressive, Fastenal, State Street

Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Charles Schwab, Bank Of New York Mellon, Prologis, PNC Financial Services, U.S. Bancorp, Interactive Brokers

Friday: HDFC Bank, M&T Bank, Citizens Financial, Truist, The Travelers Companies, Regions Financial

Tuesday: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, Existing Home Sales (4.0M), Monthly Treasury Balance

Wednesday: CPI (0.6%), Core CPI M/M% (0.2%), CPI Y/Y% (3.7%), Core CPI Y/Y% (2.5%)

Thursday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Retail Sales (0.4%), Weekly Jobless Claims (202K), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (35), PPI (0.6%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI M/M% (0.3%), PPI Y/Y%, Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories (0.4%),

Friday: Import Prices (1.2%), Industrial Production M/M% (0.4%), Capacity Utilization % (76.5%)

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Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 2.51% ) Missed on the top and bottom lines, with revenue of $17.59B vs. $17.74B and EPS of $1.72 vs. $1.80. Broad demand strength and higher yields drove 16% revenue growth, including strength across premium, loyalty and corporate travel, but fuel costs jumped 62% YoY as geopolitical disruptions pushed jet fuel prices higher, and higher crew costs and storm disruptions drove non-fuel unit costs up. Mgmt. cut FY26 EPS guidance to $5.10–$5.60 from $6.50–$7.50 as elevated fuel costs continue to pressure margins.

Victoria’s Secret $VSXY ( ▲ 6.9% ) rose as investors bought the dip after an early-September post-earnings selloff, with the move supported by strong Q2 results and a broader market rally.

Cerebras $CBRS ( ▼ 10.69% ) slid to a 52-week low after Microsoft said it will use its own chips for AI inference starting in 2027. About 19.4M shares also unlock for sale this week.

Bumble $BMBL ( ▲ 49.61% ) soared on reports it’s nearing a $1B take-private deal with Ithaca Holdings, a new firm founded by former Meta and Instacart executives.

Getty Images $GETY ( ▼ 40.95% ) plunged after announcing plans to file for Chapter 11 and go private with Koch Equity Development.

Chipotle $CMG ( ▼ 3.77% ) slipped after Starbucks confirmed it won’t acquire the company, ending takeover speculation that lifted shares about 6% last week.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 5.0% ) pulled back after surging 14% on Friday, when it returned to the Nasdaq-100 following positive Phase 3 data for its melanoma cancer vaccine.

Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▲ 10.85% ) bounced back after last week’s slide, which followed its announcement that it plans to lay off about 15% of its global workforce.

OPay plans to raise ~$500mm through a New York IPO and a $200mm private placement with Standard Bank. The listing is expected by year-end. The SoftBank-backed Nigerian payments app has 50mm+ monthly active users.

7-Eleven Inc. now expects to list by fiscal 2027 at the earliest, after Japanese parent Seven & i pushed back the IPO because of tough market conditions. Seven & i CEO Stephen Dacus said “a lot of the oxygen has been sucked out” of retail IPOs by AI.

City Therapeutics set terms to raise up to $184.7mm in its IPO, marketing ~9.7mm shares at $17-$19 each. The RNAi drug developer expects the proceeds to fund operations into late 2028.

Firmus Grid withdrew its Australian IPO, citing market volatility, and is exploring a $2-3Bn private round instead. The Nvidia-backed data center operator had aimed to raise ~$5Bn.

Blue Origin is looking to pursue an IPO within the next few years, according to Jeff Bezos, setting the company up for direct competition against SpaceX.

Facebook announced a new Muse: Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, its most capable AI models to date. They’re built for personal and professional agentic tasks, from navigating an insurance claim to building a working app.

Elon Musk has given more than $276mm to Republican groups since July, making him the biggest known donor of the 2026 midterms.

Personal AI agents are taking off, but they can still behave unpredictably. One startup CEO’s Grok Bot agent posted his bank balances on his company’s Slack.

Broadcom CEO Hock Tan likened many AI investors to casino gamblers. “A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in,” he said.

Jefferies’ Chris Wood sees “massive capital destruction” in US AI as cheaper Chinese models gain traction. Top Chinese models now process more than five times as many tokens as leading US models on OpenRouter, a global AI platform.

J.P. Morgan says the earnings supercycle remains intact and is broadening beyond mega-cap tech. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow about 29% in Q3, which would mark eight straight quarters of double-digit growth.

Apollo says private market secondaries deliver consistency through cycles. They earned a 12.6% median net IRR over 15 years, close to private equity’s 13.5%, with a range of outcomes about 39% narrower.

Lone Pine’s Cypress hedge fund erased a 44% gain in Q3 and is now up just 0.6% this year. The fund tumbled nearly 25% in July alone as big bets like Nebius, ASML, and Home Depot fell.

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson says short-term debt from big tech is the sweet spot for AI investing. “Two-year paper at nine, pretty dang good!” she said.

Rising bond yields are doing some of the tightening for central banks, with traders pricing in 539bps of combined hikes across eight major economies, down from 717bps in September, as the average global government bond yield climbed above 4% for the first time since 2000.

Chicago’s former Cboe headquarters is being turned into a 33-megawatt AI data center. Legacy Investing expects it to command rents up to four times higher than the average downtown Chicago office.

AI companies keep selling bonds even as borrowing costs rise, breaking a longstanding pattern. Usually, higher yields slow issuance, but US corporate bond sales are up about 30% this year to $1.69Tn.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella called for an “emergency brake” on advanced AI. “An authorized person should always be able to pause or shut down a model mid-task,” he wrote.

KKR has dropped non-competes for US portfolio-company employees making under $100K and plans to extend the policy to higher earners over time. The firm has also had an employee ownership program that has paid 40,000 workers $2Bn since 2011.

BlackRock upgraded short-term Treasuries to overweight and cut US stocks to neutral from overweight. It cited “potential volatility around the AI buildout,” but says it’s still constructive on AI long term.

Lawsuits against FS KKR, Ares, and Blue Owl accuse the managers of inflating private credit marks, with marks on FS KKR’s loans to the janitorial company Kellermeyer Bergensons ranging from nearly 100 cents to 10 cents on the dollar even as its equity was written to zero.

Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning” bombed at the box office: His follow-up to “The Social Network,” had a terrible opening and landed fourth with just $2.15mm. “Other Mommy” led Friday’s box office with $12.6mm, putting the $18mm horror film on track for a $28mm weekend.