The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍
Welcome back!
Well, Friday was ugly following Tech & Semi earnings, but futures are up slightly so far (SPX +0.39%, Nasdaq +0.52%). Plus, we have a ton of earnings this week, jobs numbers on Friday, and that the midterm elections. The odds are the Democrats win congress, while there’s ~71% odds that Democrats win the Senate. The prediction markets were extremely accurate in the 2024 presidential election, less so on recent foreign elections though; let’s see if prior US accuracy holds true for the midterms.
However, more negative news came this weekend as OpenAI reportedly trimmed its funding goal by $10 billion. OpenAI is seeking to raise $20B instead of $30B, while lowering its valuation target from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion pre-money.
Here’s a look at earnings this week.
Monday: Apple, Palantir Technologies, Marriott International, Estée Lauder, Clorox, Fox Corporation, Roku, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Williams Companies, ON Semiconductor, Match Group, Ryanair, Loews, Choice Hotels
Tuesday: AMD, Pfizer, Shopify, Amgen, Booking Holdings, Ferrari, Apollo Global Management, Arista Networks, Eaton, Marathon Petroleum, Keurig Dr Pepper, Yum! Brands, Block, Super Micro Computer, Duolingo, Fiserv, American International Group, Sysco, Prudential Financial, Archer-Daniels-Midland, PJT Partners, American International
Wednesday: Toyota Motor, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Uber Technologies, CVS Health, McKesson, Datadog, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Expedia Group, SharkNinja, Kraft Heinz, e.l.f. Beauty, CAVA, Wayfair, Snap, Zillow Group, TKO Group Holdings, Dutch Bros, Reynolds Consumer Products, The New York Times Company, U-Haul, AMC Entertainment, Bumble, Beyond Meat, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Coherent, Figma, Blue Owl Capital, Emerson Electric, Allstate, MetLife
Thursday: Wendy's, BJ's Restaurants, Sweetgreen, Bob's Discount Furniture, Krispy Kreme, Advance Auto Parts, CarGurus, Shake Shack, Warby Parker, Steve Madden, ACM Research, USA Rare Earth, Planet Fitness, Moelis & Company, Lyft, Celsius Holdings, Wynn Resorts, Dropbox, Lincoln National, Quantinuum, DraftKings, Fidelity National Information Services, Texas Roadhouse, Tapestry, Ralph Lauren, Affirm, Kimberly-Clark, Live Nation Entertainment, Microchip Technology, Rockwell Automation, Cardinal Health, Airbnb, Monster Beverage, Sony Group, Canada Goose, Cloudflare, Compass, Hertz, Mattel, Cigna, Six Flags Entertainment, Papa John's.
Friday: Berkshire Hathaway, Moderna, Honda Motor, Humana, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge, Vistra, Charter Communications, Under Armour, Utz Brands, Bloomin' Brands
Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).
Monday: US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI (54.5), Construction Spending (0.4%)
Tuesday: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (7.1M), Factory Orders (1.5%)
Wednesday: ADP National Employment Report, U.S. Trade Balance (-107.8B), US Services PMI, ISM Report On Business Services PMI (54.6)
Thursday: Preliminary Productivity and Costs (2.5%), Weekly Jobless Claims (198K)
Friday: Employment Report (55K), Unemployment Rate (4.2%), Avg Hourly Earnings M/M% (0.3%), Avg Hourly Earnings Y/Y%, U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (47.2), Consumer Credit (11.5B)
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Earnings Corner 💸
ExxonMobil $XOM ( ▲ 2.16% ) beat on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue at $113.2B vs. $103.1B expected and EPS at $4.23 vs. $4.08. The beat was driven by surging refining profits as global fuel supply disruptions pushed diesel prices and margins higher, with the company’s refineries running near full capacity and producing record diesel volumes. Mgmt. raised the dividend 4% and maintained plans for $20B of annual buybacks through 2027.
AbbVie $ABBV ( ▲ 1.41% ) Beat on both the top and bottom lines, with revenue at $17.40B vs. $17.37B, as strong growth from newer immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq more than offset declining Humira sales after patent loss. Mgmt. raised its full-year EPS outlook as the two drugs continue to replace Humira as the company’s main growth engine.
Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 1.75% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue at $67.8B vs. $60.55B expected, as record refinery throughput and stronger fuel-making profits more than offset weaker oil-and-gas production earnings. Global supply disruptions from conflicts in the Middle East and Russia pushed diesel and gasoline prices higher, boosting refining margins and helping the company generate $14.2B of adj. FCF, which it used to reduce debt and build cash.
General Dynamics $GD ( ▲ 0.48% ) Beat on revenue at $14.57B vs. $13.73B and on EPS at $4.49, as higher submarine construction activity and stronger Gulfstream deliveries lifted results across the portfolio. The company secured nearly $99B of new contracts, $71.6B of which came from major U.S. Navy orders for Virginia and Columbia class submarines, doubling backlog to a record $220B and helping give mgmt. confidence to raise its outlook.
Colgate-Palmolive $CL ( ▲ 2.29% ) Beat on top and bottom lines, with revenue at $5.37B vs. $5.34B, as higher prices, strong emerging-market demand and growth in its Hill’s pet food business helped offset weaker North American sales. Although raw-material costs remained elevated, pricing and internal cost savings more than offset the pressure, allowing margins to improve and prompting mgmt. to raise its 2026 gross-margin and EPS growth outlook.
Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 6.2% ) Beat on revenue at $2.16B vs. $1.99B and posted a narrower than expected EPS loss, as record deliveries and the ramp of its lower priced R2 SUV drove vehicle growth while software and services added higher margin revenue. The company remains unprofitable as its automotive business still loses money on vehicle production and it continues spending to scale R2, though improving unit economics helped narrow losses. Mgmt. raised 2026 delivery guidance, narrowed its adj. EBITDA loss outlook and cut capex guidance.
On The Move 📈 📉
Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 29.22% ) plunged despite beating Q3 estimates as weak Q4 guidance and a drop in U.S. daily users raised concerns that AI search is eating into its traffic.
Intel $INTC ( ▼ 28.58% ) collapsed after a disappointing Q4 outlook, hit by falling PC sales, a factory outage in Israel, and a shortage of key chip materials.
Roblox $RBLX ( ▼ 18.05% ) tumbled after daily active users fell 9%, well short of estimates, and Roblox guided Q4 bookings below expectations, citing competition from the Nov. launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
CD&R is reportedly pursuing a buyout of Global Payments $GPN ( ▲ 12.97% ), which has an enterprise value of about $40Bn. CD&R teamed up with GTCR, the company’s biggest shareholder, on the bid.
Memory stocks $SNDK ( ▼ 13.47% ) and $MU ( ▼ 5.3% ) fell during the broader selloff, and as Kioxia signaled the AI-fueled jump in flash memory prices is slowing, raising doubts about how long memory makers’ pricing power will last.
CareDx $CDNA ( ▲ 22.22% ) surged after testing volumes rose 51% in Q3 on its July acquisition of cancer blood-test maker Naveris. The company also raised its profit outlook.
IPO Roundup 📍
OPay raised $304mm in its US IPO at $19 per share, the bottom of the range, but its shares never started trading on Friday. They were indicated to open below the IPO price before the NYSE halted trading with news pending.
Iceland’s Blue Lagoon spa plans to go public after shareholders approved an IPO. The geothermal spa, which gets about a million visitors a year, shelved an earlier listing after nearby volcanic eruptions.
Aspen Neuroscience closed just below its $15 IPO price after raising ~$140.6mm at the bottom of the range. The Gilead-backed biotech is developing stem cell therapies for Parkinson’s disease.
Eczema drug developer Bambusa Therapeutics fell in its trading debut, closing below its $16 IPO price after raising $168.9mm.
Today’s Headlines 📖🍿
Arini Capital Management’s flagship hedge fund is down 26% this year through October 23 and has received bids from Pimco and Oaktree on some of its high-yield debt holdings. The firm has already sold some assets as it looks to raise cash by selling its most liquid, performing holdings.
9 people were killed after a Learjet bound for the Bahamas crashed in Palm Beach County, Florida.
Binance has resumed withdrawals after the record theft of $6.3Bn in token assets from its hot wallets, saying it has restored backing for 90% of the stolen assets using its SAFU fund, while the FBI says North Korea was responsible.
Younger adults are shifting from bars to run clubs and recreational leagues, with Bank of America data showing Gen Z and millennial spending on fitness rising faster than bar spending in early 2026.
Ares Management is avoiding financing for AI chips and backing the data centers that house them instead, with CEO Michael Arougheti calling financing data centers “simpler underwriting with really attractive relative value.”
With mortgage rates above 7%, rental demand is rising, as Zillow’s measure of renter interest is up 19% from a year earlier and the typical new-buyer housing payment has climbed 5% to $3,037 against a median apartment rent of $1,932.
Ares Management has raised $8Bn in the first close of its latest flagship US direct lending funds, almost $6Bn for the closed-end Fund IV and over $2Bn for the evergreen Core vehicle, 60% more than the prior vintage had at the same stage.
French lawmakers voted to tax data sent to internet users. The amendment passed 11 to 10 and would charge €0.055 per gigabyte, raising an expected €10Bn a year.
Pew finds most Americans don’t want AI deciding their medical care. 60% are uncomfortable with it helping their doctor make a diagnosis or treatment plan. Only 5% are open to insurance claim decisions made without human review.
Record Wall Street profits are boosting New York’s tax collections. The state sees next year’s deficit falling to $2.9Bn from $6.4Bn.
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M&A Transactions💭
Viaplay Group Netherlands, provider of television program production and distribution services intended to facilitate media content delivery, was acquired by Videoland for EUR 142.0M.
Mobico Group (LON: MCG), operates a diversified transport business with operations spanning coach, rail, bus, shuttle and paratransit in Europe, the U.S., North Africa and the Middle East, entered into an agreement to be acquired by Autobuses De Leon, via its financial sponsors Cosmen Family Office and Asterion Industrial, through an LBO for an estimated GBP 308.0M. The transaction will value the company at an estimated GBP 416.216M. Bank of America advised on the sale.
Mantis Innovation, provider of managed facility services intended to optimize building performance and energy efficiency, was acquired by Willdan Group (NAS: WLDN) for $290.0M. EV/Revenue was 2.42x. Jefferies advised on the sale.
LYB Houston Hub Holdings, operator of a petroleum refinery based in Houston, Texas, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Valero Energy (NYS: VLO) for $320.5M.
LOTTE Rental (KRX: 089860), the leader in the domestic rental industry, was acquired by TPG through a KRW 1.31T LBO. The transaction values the company at KRW 2.0T. EV/EBITDA was 1.66x and EV/Revenue was 0.78x.
Private Placement Transactions💭
Fractile, developer of artificial intelligence processor chips and computing hardware systems designed to accelerate inference execution for frontier models, raised GBP 577.0M of Series C venture funding from undisclosed investors, putting pre-money valuation at GBP 2.43B.
Restructuring Updates💭
Getty Images — Type: Prepackaged Chapter 11. Debt: ~$1.47B. What happened: Filed October 21 in Delaware to implement a creditor-supported restructuring, including new financing, debt reduction and a plan to take the company private.
Braskem America Finance Company — Type: Involuntary Chapter 11 petition. Debt: ~$587M in outstanding bonds at the filing entity. What happened: Three Bracebridge-affiliated creditor funds filed an involuntary petition on October 20 in New York, holding approximately $272M of the debt. The petition is part of the broader Braskem debt dispute.
1801 50th Street Units LLC — Type: Chapter 11. Debt: $1M–$10M in reported liabilities. What happened: The New York real estate entity filed October 19 in the Eastern District of New York. Further restructuring details remain limited.
Restructuring Rumors💭
Optimum Communications (Altice USA) — Type: Potential Chapter 11 / debt-for-equity restructuring. Debt: ~$26B. What happened: Preparing for a possible bankruptcy before year-end to transfer control to creditors including Apollo, Oaktree and JPMorgan. Approximately $6B of debt matures in 2027.
Brightspeed — Type: Potential Chapter 11. Debt: ~$11B previously reported. What happened: Apollo-backed broadband provider is reportedly preparing for a potential filing as early as December after struggling to secure new financing. Creditors continue negotiating rescue funding alternatives.
Braskem — Type: Out-of-court restructuring negotiations. Debt: ~$11B. What happened: Creditors and shareholders moved closer to a potential restructuring involving new equity capital and debt-for-equity conversions. Braskem confirmed negotiations remained ongoing without a final agreement.
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