The Week Ahead - May 3rd

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Btw, Berkshire Hathaway had their annual investor meeting this weekend, but the hype was a lot quieter given Buffett’s departure. Still, the conglomerate is sitting on a nearly $400B war chest of cash….maybe they’ll want to buy The Wall Street Rollup.

Futures are slightly higher following news that President Trump would have the U.S. start escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow. “Project Freedom” will aim to get civilian ships out of the Strait. Last Friday, Trump said he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest peace offer, so firm peace talks are still ongoing, but also “very positive” according to Trump.

ICYMI - we recently dropped a State of AI in Finance Report that covers how Wall Street is using AI at work. If you’re in Banking or the Buyside, make sure you join Buyside Hub to access the report’s findings.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Palantir, Diamondback Energy, ON Semiconductor, Coterra Energy, Pinterest, Loews, Tyson Foods, Norwegian Cruise Line, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Williams Companies, Equitable Holdings

• Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices, HSBC Holdings, Arista, Shopify, Pfizer, Anheuser-Busch, KKR & Co, Ferrari, Suncor Energy, PayPal, Electronic Arts, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Super Micro Compute, Live Nation Entertainment, Bumble, Match Group, Prudential Financial, Devon Energy

• Wednesday: Arm Holdings, Walt Disney, Uber, AppLovin, DoorDash, Novo Nordisk, Fortinet, Coherent Corp, Axon Enterprise, Zillow, Maplebear, Marriott, Warner Bros, Dutch Bros, Restaurant Brands International, Apollo Global, MetLife, Cenovus Energy, Equinor ASA, Beyond Meat, CVS, United Therapeutics New York Times

• Thursday: McDonald's, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Monster, Cloudflare, Cheniere Energy, CoreWeave, Vistra Corp, Datadog, Expedia, DraftKings, Wynn Resorts, Cars.com, Krispy Kreme, Expensify, Lifetime Brands, U.S. Energy Corp

• Friday: Fidelity National, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge, Wendy's Company

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Factory orders

• Tuesday: U.S. trade balance (-$60.4B), Job openings (6.8M), New home sales delayed report (630,000), New home sales (660,000), S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services (54.3%)

• Wednesday: ADP employment (98,000)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (205,000), U.S. productivity (1.5%), Construction spending delayed report (-0.1%), Construction spending (0.4%), Consumer credit ($12.5B)

• Friday: U.S. employment report (53,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages y/y (3.8%), Wholesale inventories (1.4%), Consumer sentiment prelim (49.5)

A new way to source your service providers

Proladex is the trusted way for private equity firms to discover vetted service providers across deal origination, portfolio support, and back office operations.

We remove the friction around vendor selection by offering a curated, reference checked directory across key categories:

• Capital Markets & Advisory

• Executive Search & Recruiting

• Quality of Earnings & Diligence

• Consulting & Brokerage

PE investors can join the platform at no cost and instantly access credible partners for every stage of the investment lifecycle.

Service providers can explore an introductory trial by scheduling a call.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• Exxon $XOM ( ▼ 1.02% ) beat on revenue at $85.1B vs. $82.2B and adjusted EPS at $1.16 vs. $1.00, but profit fell sharply to $4.2B from $7.7B as the Iran war disrupted shipments and created hedge/timing losses. Operationally, production still reached 4.6M barrels/day, helped by record Guyana output and continued Permian growth, showing the core production business held up despite the disruption. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through 2Q, Exxon said Middle East production could fall by 750K barrels/day vs. last year because the route is a key export channel for oil and LNG, limiting Exxon’s ability to ship product from the region.

• Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 1.39% ) missed on revenue ($48.6B vs. $52.1B) but beat on adjusted EPS ($1.41 vs. $0.95), while reported profit fell to $2.2B from $3.5B last year. Production rose 15% y/y to 3.86M boe/day, driven by the Hess acquisition, Gulf of America project start-ups, and Permian growth, but Chevron could not fully benefit from higher oil prices because Middle East production was curtailed by the Iran war and its Kazakhstan joint venture having operational downtime. Its refining business also swung to a loss as the sharp March oil price spike created temporary accounting/timing losses before related barrels were delivered and sold; 2026 guidance was unchanged, including 7%–10% production growth and $18B–$19B of capex.

• Ares $ARES ( ▲ 1.36% ) missed on revenue slightly and EPS also missed despite strong y/y growth driven by record $30B fundraising and higher management fees. Management emphasized a record investment pipeline and strong institutional demand, pushing AUM up 18% y/y and signaling ongoing strength in private credit despite market concerns.

• Estee Lauder $EL ( ▲ 3.38% ) beat slightly on revenue at $3.71B and on EPS at $0.91 vs. $0.65 as organic sales was up 2% after several quarters of declines, helped by strength in fragrance and China. Management raised full year EPS guidance and highlighted margin expansion from restructuring and cost cuts. The Company is laying off 9k-10k employees, roughly 15% of its workforce.

• Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 1.24% ) beat on revenue ($389M vs. $220M) up 260% y/y, driven by international COVID vaccine demand (80% of sales), but still posted a large loss of $1.3B due to a one-time litigation settlement charge. Management guided weak 2Q revenue due to timing of contract deliveries, overshadowing progress on new vaccine approvals and pipeline development.

• Clorox $CLX ( ▼ 9.67% ) revenue came in in-line at $1.67B while EPS beat ($1.64 vs. $1.55), as pricing and strength in cleaning/international were offset by weaker demand in lifestyle categories and a slower recovery. The stock fell hard though after Management cut full year EPS guidance amid cost pressures and delayed margin improvement, as higher input costs and supply chain inefficiencies weighed on profitability.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Atlassian $TEAM ( ▲ 29.58% ) stock surged after its Q3 2026 results beat expectations, with revenue of $1.79B vs $1.69B expected and EPS of $1.75 vs. est. of $1.32. The stock is still down 45% year-to-date, but management called the selloff “overblown” and cited customers expanding how they use their software.

• Twilio $TWLO ( ▲ 23.83% ) stock climbed after the company delivered strong Q1 2026 results, raised full-year guidance, and new AI-focused partnerships.

• Spirit Airlines $SAVEQ ( ▲ 0.43% ) shares plummeted after the airline failed to secure a government bailout and ceased operations due to high jet fuel prices. The airline has since been delisted from the NYSE and now trades OTC. Spirit Airlines officially stopped service at 3AM ET on Saturday.

• Roblox $RBLX ( ▼ 18.33% ) slid after reporting lower-than-expected daily users, driven by new safety features that restrict how kids can use the platform.

• Reddit $RDDT ( ▲ 13.08% ) jumped on strong revenue growth, up 69% y/y.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Cerebras is targeting a $4B IPO at an ~$40B valuation, with early interest reportedly exceeding $10B, reflecting strong investor appetite for AI chipmakers amid elevated AI infrastructure spending.

• Seaport Therapeutics, a maker of antidepressants and anxiety drugs, raised $255mm in an upsized IPO. The offering priced at the top of its marketed range, giving the biotech company a market value of $912mm.

• Opay Digital Services has hired Citi, Deutsche, and JPMorgan as it prepares for a U.S. IPO. The SoftBank-backed payments platform is seeking a valuation of $4B.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Berkshire Hathaway signals capital scarcity in annual meeting: The firm is sitting on $397B of cash after 14 straight quarters of net selling, with Greg Abel emphasizing operational gains as growth slows and deal opportunities remain scarce.

• GameStop is offering to buy eBay for $56 Billion. CEO Ryan Cohen is making an unsolicited offer at $125 a share in cash and stock. TD Bank is prepared to provide $20B in debt financing. GameStop has built a 5% stake currently and Cohen will run a proxy fight if eBay is not receptive to the proposal.

• West Marine nears bankruptcy filing: The Oaktree and L Catterton-backed retailer is preparing for Chapter 11 to restructure lease-heavy debt and close stores, signaling continued pressure on specialty retail and questioning of the efficacy of prior LME fixes.

• Brightline is seeking to avoid bankruptcy, reviving efforts to find third-party investors or other rescue financing to address its $5.5B debt load. The Florida high-speed rail project is backed by Fortress Investment Group.

• Brown University’s $8B endowment cut its stake in Blue Owl Capital Corp, a Blue Owl private credit fund, by nearly 53%, reflecting growing private credit scrutiny from core LPs.

• States push back on PE in legal services: Lawmakers across California, Illinois, and Colorado are advancing bills to restrict buyout firms’ ownership of law firms. These efforts signal early regulatory resistance as private equity pushes into a new vertical, exploiting loopholes in longstanding bans on nonlawyer control of legal services.

• Coatue is launching a venture to buy land for data centers: The new firm, Next Frontier, will target AI customers including Anthropic. The effort could deploy tens of billions and is already underway with a major project in Indiana.

• Disney’s new CEO is exploring a Super App to unify the company’s disparate mobile apps. The new app would combine Disney+ with its other mobile platforms and turn its streaming service into the first stop for all things Disney.

• Data centers emerge as a major source of tax revenue, providing a significant benefit to many local communities. This is highlighted in Loudoun County, VA, where data centers provide 45% of the county’s $2.9B in tax revenue while only occupying about 3% of the land. As a result, Loudoun was able to reduce its homeowner property-tax rates by about 40%.

• Jane Street paid its employees $9.4B in 2025, or about $2.7mm per employee for its staff of 3,500. The pay jump came alongside a record year for the firms trading operations, which hauled in $40B.

• The Devil Wears Prada 2 opened to a $233mm+ global box office, the 2nd biggest opening so far in 2026, and $77mm domestically.

M&A Transactions💭 

Versant Media Group (NAS: VSNT) has sold the youth sports app SportEngine to PlayMetrics.

Lazard (NYS: LAZ) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Campbell Lutyens, a global and independent private markets advisor, for $575.0M.

Axius Water, provider of water quality management services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $700.0M by CRH (NYS: CRH).

Esperion Therapeutics (NAS: ESPR), a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by ARCHIMED. EV/EBITDA was 17.22x and EV/Revenue was 2.73x. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Pacific Financial (PINX: PFLC), active in the financial services industry, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $177.0M by Banner Bank (NAS: BANR). EV/Net Income was 14.37x and EV/Revenue was 3.36x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Synthetix, operator of a crypto-backed synthetic asset platform, raised $150.0M of Series C venture funding led by Bain Capital at a pre-money valuation of $1.05B.

Legora, developer of an AI based legal workflow software, raised $600.0M of Series D venture funding led by NVentures and Accel at a pre-money valuation of $5.0B.

Hightouch, developer of a composable customer data platform, raised $150.0M of Series D venture funding led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity and Bain Capital Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $2.6B.

Aidoc, developer of a decision support platform, raised $150.0M of Series E venture funding led by Square Peg Capital, General Catalyst, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Restructuring Updates💭

Wren Kitchens / Wren US Holdings

• Type: Chapter 7 (liquidation)

• Debt: Assets reported ~$100M–$500M

• What happened: Filed late April and closed all ~15 U.S. stores tied to Home Depot partnership

• Scale signal: Mid-to-large retail liquidation with nine-figure asset base and full U.S. shutdown

ARC Burger, LLC (Hardee’s franchisee)

• Type: Chapter 7

• Debt: ~$29M+ liabilities

• What happened: Post-filing liquidation actions and store shutdowns continued into this period

• Scale signal: ~77 locations across 9 states; thousands of creditors

X2O Media (Canada – digital media tech)

• Type: Bankruptcy (insolvency proceeding)

• Debt: Not disclosed

• What happened: Entered bankruptcy April 26 with trustee pursuing asset recoveries and restructuring options

• Scale signal: Established enterprise tech/media platform with cross-border operations

Restructuring Rumors💭

FAT Brands / Twin Hospitality (Smokey Bones chain)

• Type: Restructuring deterioration (Chapter 11 → operational collapse risk)

• Debt: ~$1B–$10B range at parent level

• What happened: All Smokey Bones locations abruptly shut down April 28 despite ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring

• Scale signal: National restaurant chain effectively collapsing during restructuring (footprint reduced from ~130 → near zero)

Saks Global (Saks / Neiman Marcus)

• Type: Ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring stress

• Debt: ~$4B+

• What happened: Additional layoffs (~600+ corporate roles) and cost-cutting measures implemented as restructuring deepens

• Scale signal: One of the largest U.S. retail bankruptcies still actively restructuring

Office Properties Income Trust (OPI)

• Type: Late-stage restructuring / potential Chapter 11 risk

• Debt: ~$2.4B

• What happened: Continued creditor negotiations and pressure tied to office vacancy and refinancing challenges extending into late April

• Scale signal: Large publicly traded office REIT exposed to structural decline in commercial real estate

Want to get the most out of ChatGPT?

ChatGPT is a superpower if you know how to use it correctly.

Discover how HubSpot's guide to AI can elevate both your productivity and creativity to get more things done.

Learn to automate tasks, enhance decision-making, and foster innovation with the power of AI.

Download the free guide.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 25% chance of Google being the largest Company by the end of June.

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Finance Jobs: Looking for a job in Finance? Join Buyside Hub to access the Job Board for free.

Join our Referral Program and Gain WSR Investing Club Access ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket