The Week Ahead - May 25th

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! Given the shortened week, we’ll be condensing our weekday morning notes into one Thursday morning rollup.

Futures were up nicely, as Trump has said talks with Iran are “proceeding nicely” - but now U.S. futures are only up a touch following the U.S. self-defense strikes in Iran this evening. The U.S. targeted Iranian missile launch sites and Iranian boats seeking to lay mines. It sounded like there was a imminent deal announcement to come earlier in the weekend, but now we’re inching back to “yellow light” mode following the U.S. strikes. Something has to give on this front, as we’re nearing the 3-month point of high oil prices flowing through the economy.

That said, the AI advancement thesis remains incredibly robust, with Anthropic and OpenAI continuing to advance dramatically. All eyes are on the SpaceX IPO, but these two mega IPOs feel like 2026 stories.

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Here’s a look at earnings this week. Earnings season is almost done, so it will be quieter from here.

• Tuesday: AutoZone 

• Wednesday: Marvell, Salesforce, PDD Holdings, Bank Of Montreal, Synopsys, Snowflake, HP, Dick's Sporting, U-Haul, Bath & Body, Manchester United, Abercrombie & Fitch, Agilent Technologies

• Thursday: Costco, Royal Bank Of Canada, Dell, MongoDB, Burlington, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, Gap, American Eagle, Autodesk, CIBC, Kohl’s

• Friday: Buckle, Genesco

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index 20 cities, Consumer confidence (92.0)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (213,000), Durable-goods orders (3.3%), Durable-goods minus transportation, New home sales (665,000)

• Friday: GDP second revision (2.0%), Personal income (0.4%), Personal spending ( 0.5%), PCE index (0.5%), PCE y/y (3.8%), Core PCE index (0.3%), Core PCE y/y (3.3%), Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Advanced wholesale inventories, Chicago Business Barometer PMI (51.5)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• BJ’s Wholesale Club $BJ ( ▼ 8.25% ) revenue beat at $5.66B vs. $5.44B and EPS beat at $1.10 vs vs. $1.03. Results were driven by continued membership growth, higher gas traffic as elevated fuel prices pushed more shoppers toward BJ’s lower-priced gas stations, and inflation pressured household budgets driving value-focused consumer spending. Comparable sales rose 6.3%, though sales excluding gasoline slightly missed expectations as discretionary spending remained pressured. Margins were hurt as BJ’s absorbed some tariff related cost increases to keep prices competitive, while management maintained full year guidance.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Dell $DELL ( ▲ 16.77% ) surged into next week’s Q1 print on bullish notes from Citi, JPMorgan, and Mizuho, which all point to the firm’s $43B AI server backlog and accelerating enterprise AI demand.

• Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 5.58% ) fell after Meta launched Forum, a standalone Facebook Groups app aimed directly at Reddit’s casual user base, deepening the stock”s approximately 40% YTD slide.

• IMAX $IMAX ( ▲ 15.47% ) ripped on reports the premium cinema operator is exploring a sale, with potential buyers reportedly including Netflix, Apple, Sony, and private equity firms.

• Quantum Stocks $QBTS ( ▲ 14.22% ) , $RGTI ( ▲ 19.87% ) , and $INFQ ( ▲ 11.22% ) extended their rally into Friday on momentum from the Trump admin’s $2B equity for funding push, with each set to receive $100M in exchange for equity stakes.

• Estée Lauder $EL ( ▲ 11.93% ) jumped after confirming it walked away from $40B merger talks with Spanish beauty conglomerate Puig, clearing the way for its “Beauty Reimagined” turnaround.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• SpaceX is reserving roughly 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors, well above the typical 5-10% of major offerings, with super-voting shares handing Musk 85% voting power and “controlled company” status. The S-1 also flagged over $1B in related party transactions across Musk’s companies and a $5B loss on $19B in revenue last year following the xAI merger.

• BofA’s Michael Hartnett warns of mega-IPO risk bubble concentration, as tech already sits at 44% of the S&P 500. SpaceX and OpenAI listings could push that past 48%. This surpasses concentration peaks from the Roaring ‘20s, Nifty 50, and TMT bubble.

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New piece later this week!

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair amid rate cut pressure and inflation surge: The former Wall Street banker takes the helm with inflation at a three-year high, fuel prices up,, and Trump publicly demanding cuts while the market is pricing in no cuts and maybe even the possibility of a hike.

• Goldman Sachs CEO calls AI job fears “overblown”: David Solomon argued that the US workforce will adapt to AI advances, as Goldman’s own analysis estimates AI could automate 25% of current work hours over the next decade. Solomon expects white collar jobs in accounting, banking, and law to see tasks automated, but says AI will create new roles managing the technology and free workers for more complex tasks.

• Hyperscaler CDS boom creates hedge fund arbitrage: Banks are buying protection on hyperscalers to free up credit lines after $250B+ in AI-driven borrowing. Hedge funds like Saba Capital are selling protection on AA-rated names at sub-IG spreads, with BofA reporting monthly hyperscaler CDS volumes up tenfold since 2025.

• JPMorgan to offload over $4B in PE loan risk: The bank plans to transfer up to 12% of a NAV portfolio tied to private equity assets across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Investors absorbing the first losses are expected to receive low teen returns, as JPMorgan moves to cut exposure to slowing PE exits and rising AI concerns.

• McKinsey is forced to rethink pricing as AI reshapes consulting: Clients are pushing consulting firms to charge for measurable results instead of hours worked, as AI automates the analyst and research work that they used to do.

• Harvard’s $57B endowment faces PE hangover as CEO Narvekar eyes retirement: Unfunded commitments have ballooned from $4.6B to $7.9B since 2017 after HMC raised private equity allocations from 16% to 41%. Harvard now faces pressure from slowing distributions, federal funding cuts, and a higher endowment tax, with only $1.7B in cash on hand.

• Lantheus weighs $7B sale after takeover offer from Curium: The radiopharma company is in talks with Curium, owned by CapVest Partners, with a deal potentially weeks away. Both companies operate in the fast-growing radiopharmaceutical space, used in cancer scans and treatments, with Lantheus shares up 9% Friday on the news.

• US consortium bids €2B for Italian soccer club Napoli: Underdog Global Partners is leading negotiations to buy SSC Napoli from the De Laurentiis family, though talks have stalled over sticking points. The bid includes plans to redevelop the Stadio Diego Maradona and would mark one of the biggest profits in sports for De Laurentiis, who bought the club out of bankruptcy in 2004.

• Uber proposes a €10B takeover of Delivery Hero: Uber offered €33 per share for the German food delivery company, but the bid carries no real premium, with some investors seeking an offer exceeding €40. DoorDash has signaled interest in Delivery Hero’s Middle East unit Talabat, setting up a potential bidding war.

• Apollo proposes a $2.04B takeover of UK’s Bodycote: The PE firm offered a 27% premium for the heat treatment company, sending shares up 19% on Friday. Apollo has until June 19 to make a formal bid or walk away under UK Takeover Panel rules.

M&A Transactions💭 

Modaxo reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Public Transit Business of Conduent (NAS: CNDT) for $164.0M. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Vox Media Podcast Network, operator of a podcast network, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $300.0M by Versant Media Group and Lupa Systems. EV/Revenue was 5.0x. LionTree advised on the sale.

Opus Formation, provider of vocational training services, was acquired for $271.0M by Initiative & Finace, Altur EdTrain, InnovaFonds, Mr. Franck Lavis, and Five Management Members. EV/Revenue was 11.65x.

HyalRoute, developer of a shared fiber network platform, was acquired for $2.3B by All In FutureTech Alliance.

Bliss GVS Pharma (BOM: 506197), an India-based company engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, trading, and exporting of pharmaceutical products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for INR 21.985B by Anupam Rasayan India (BOM: 543275). EV/EBITDA was 12.5x and EV/Revenue was 3.17x. SBI Capital Markets advised on the sale.

I-MED Radiology Network, operator of a chain of medical clinics, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 3.4B by Jardine Matheson.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Modal Labs, developer of a serverless cloud computing platform, raised $355.0M of Series C venture funding led by Redpoint Ventures and General Catalyst at a pre-money valuation of $4.3B.

Restructuring Updates💭

Del Monte Foods

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: ~$1.2B funded debt load (wsj.com)

• What happened: Del Monte entered Chapter 11 after negotiations with lenders failed to stabilize liquidity pressures tied to declining canned food demand and elevated borrowing costs.

• Scale signal: One of the largest consumer packaged goods bankruptcies of 2026; nationwide grocery distribution footprint across Del Monte, Contadina, and College Inn brands.

First Brands Group (auto parts supplier)

• Type: Chapter 11 / liquidation risk

• Debt: Administrative and restructuring obligations exceeding ~$200M; broader liabilities substantially higher (wsj.com)

• What happened: Court pressure intensified around potential conversion to trustee-led liquidation as restructuring negotiations deteriorated further.

• Scale signal: Major automotive supplier tied to OEM and aftermarket channels across North America.

Rite Aid

• Type: Chapter 11 wind-down

• Debt: Estimated $1B–$10B liabilities/assets range

• What happened: Additional pharmacy asset sales and store closure rounds advanced during the week as Rite Aid accelerated liquidation efforts.

• Scale signal: More than 1,000 pharmacy locations and significant healthcare retail infrastructure affected.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Brightline

• Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

• Debt: ~$5.5B

• What happened: Creditors continued organizing around restructuring advisers after missed payment grace periods and ongoing going-concern warnings.

• Scale signal: One of the largest infrastructure-related distress situations in the U.S. transportation sector.

QVC Group

• Type: Chapter 11 restructuring conflict

• Debt: ~$6B restructuring underway

• What happened: Litigation and shareholder disputes intensified around restructuring terms and ownership allocation tied to Cornerstone assets.

• Scale signal: Major national retail/media platform spanning QVC, HSN, and related commerce brands.

Office Properties Income Trust (OPI)

• Type: Distressed restructuring / refinancing pressure

• Debt: ~$2.4B

• What happened: Continued refinancing stress and creditor negotiations tied to weak office occupancy and deteriorating CRE fundamentals.

• Scale signal: Large publicly traded office REIT exposed to structural office market decline.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 18% chance of France winning the World Cup.

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