The Week Ahead - May 10th

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Iran has made the U.S. an offer to transfer some of its highly enriched uranium to a third-party country, but has rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities. This wasn’t the response the U.S. was looking for, with President Trump calling it “totally unacceptable". President Trump has been clear that he doesn’t want Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon.

Oil is up 4% following this post. Futures are down slightly, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had a strong semi induced run last week.

Two things on my eye this week 1) inflation data and 2) how hot the Cerebras IPO gets.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Constellation Energy, Simon Property, Hims & Hers, AST SpaceMobile, Rigetti, Fox Corporation

• Tuesday: On Holding, Under Armour, Zebra, Aramark, Nu Holdings, Amentum, Oklo

• Wednesday: Cisco, AES Corporation, Alibaba, Manulife, Nebius, Tower Semiconductor, Birkenstock, Wix.com, StubHub, Jack in the Box, USA Rare Earth

• Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corp, Klarna, YETI, Nano Nuclear Energy, Canadian Solar, Canada Goose

• Friday: RBC Bearings

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Existing home sales (4.1M)

• Tuesday: NFIB optimism index (96.2), Consumer price index (0.6%), CPI year over year (3.8%), Core CPI (0.3%), Core CPI year over year (2.7%), Monthly U.S. federal budget ($225B)

• Wednesday: Producer price index (0.6%), Core PPI (0.3%), PPI year over year, Core PPI year over year

• Thursday: U.S. retail sales (0.5%), Retail sales minus autos (0.6%), Initial jobless claims (205,000), Import price index (1.0%), Import price index minus fuel, Business inventories (0.9%)

• Friday: Empire State manufacturing survey (6.5), Industrial production (0.2%), Capacity utilization (75.8%)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• Brookfield Asset Management $BAM ( ▲ 1.99% ) revenue slightly missed at $1.43B while EPS beat at $0.43 vs. $0.42, as revenue rose 24% y/y and fee-related earnings increased 11% to $772M. Growth was driven by strong fundraising and fee-bearing capital expansion, with demand strongest in private credit, infrastructure, and AI/energy-related investment opportunities, putting 2026 on pace to be a record fundraising year.

• Wendy’s $WEN ( ▲ 5.04% ) jumped after beating earnings and revenue expectations despite weaker domestic traffic, as value meals and menu promotions helped drive spending and support sales. The company also reaffirmed full-year guidance, signaling confidence that its value strategy can continue offsetting pressure on lower-income consumers.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Lumentum $LITE ( ▲ 1.26% ) is being added to the Nasdaq 100, replacing Costar group, effective May 18th

• Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 34.22% ) surged to all time highs after beating revenue expectations, doubling its backlog to $2.2B, and securing its biggest launch contract.

• Pershing Square $PS ( ▲ 15.8% ) climbed on continued post-IPO momentum, more than doubling since its April 29 debut.

• Intel $INTC ( ▲ 13.96% ) rallied after reports emerged that Apple is in talks to have Intel produce its main processors in the US.

• Texas Roadhouse $TXRH ( ▲ 12.32% ) reported strong Q1 results with same-store sales up 7.1%, a divided increase, and early Q2 comps are already up 6.5%.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Cerebras, an AI chipmaker, is raising its IPO pricing range after being 20x oversubscribed on initial orders. With orders >$10B, the new price range is $125-$135 (up from $115-$125). The Company was planning to raise up to $3.5B and is set to go public Thursday. Core customers include OpenAI and Amazon.

• Inspire Brands confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO targeting a $20B valuation. The group owns six chains with over 33,300 locations worldwide and generates $33.4B in annual sales.

• Honeywell announced Quantinuum, which confidentially filed back in February, has publicly filed its S-1 for a U.S. IPO and is planning to list on the Nasdaq, with J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley leading as joint underwriters.

• Safepoint Holdings filed for a U.S. IPO, led by Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. The Florida focused insurer premiums grew nearly 5x since 2021 to $927M in 2026 as larger insurers retreated.

• Uber-backed Lime filed for a Nasdaq IPO targeting a $2B valuation with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan leading the deal. Revenue grew 29% to $887M in 2025 but carries approx. $846M in debt due in 12 months it will need to address

• Greenbriar backed Applied Aerospace filed for an IPO ahead of the anticipated SpaceX listing. Led by Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and BofA, the firm carries a $1.1B contract backlog with direct and indirect US government exposure and generated $134M in revenue in Q1 2026.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Jobs report beats expectations, but cracks emerge: Payroll rose 115K vs 55K expected, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, but weaker wage growth, falling participation, and rising underemployment point to a cooling labor market.

  • Preliminary consumer sentiment of 48.2 came in below expectations of 49.7, and compared to 49.8. Consumers expect higher inflation following sharply higher prices at the pump.

• Apollo, Blackstone eye $35B Broadcom financing: The firms are negotiating one of the largest private credit deals on record to fund AI chip development, tied to Broadcom’s long-term TPU and infrastructure agreements with Google and Anthropic.

• CPP Investments exits its European non-performing loans for C$1B: The Canada Pension Plan sold its remaining NPL interests to a joint venture between Arrow Global and Fortress Investment Group, citing stronger risk-adjusted returns elsewhere. The deal is expected to close later this month.

• University of California adds 30M shares of Blue Owl’s BDC in Q1: The $200B investment fund added 30M shares of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp $OTF ( ▼ 1.0% ) , building a >6% stake, while slashing its position in Blue Owl Capital $OWL ( ▲ 2.03% ) from 5.9M shares to 66,000 shares.

• Topgolf cuts jobs post-buyout: The Leonard Green-backed operator laid off hundreds of workers across U.S. venues just months after the Sponsor swooped in for a haircut, $1.1B price.

• Iowa pension chief exits amid governance probe: The $47B IPERS CEO resigned following misconduct allegations and claims of inflated performance via weak benchmarks.

• Intertek rejects EQT’s improved $12.1B offer: The UK testing and certification firm rejected EQT’s offer of £58 per share, calling it a significant undervaluation. EQT has until May 14 to make a formal offer or walk away.

• Pimco CIO warns Fed rate hikes are back on the table: Iran-driven energy prices are making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, with Pimco’s CIO saying hikes can’t be ruled out. Goldman Sachs now expects the next cut to be delayed to December 2026.

• QVC shareholders accuse the company of diverting assets to creditors: Preferred shareholders argue $200M in cash and Cornerstone Brands stake belong to QVC Group and cannot be used to settle subsidiary debt. They have asked a judge to allow a competing restructuring plan.

• Moderna confirms early stage hantavirus vaccine research: The company confirmed it began researching hantavirus vaccines before the MV Hondius outbreak, in partnership with the U.S. Army and Korea University. Shares jumped 13% on the news.

• Microsoft’s East African data center delayed over payment disputes: The $1B project with G42 stalled after the Kenyan government couldn’t guarantee the annual capacity payments at the level requested. A scaled-back version may move forward.

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M&A Transactions💭 

UK Power Networks, provider of electricity-distribution services, was acquired for GBP 10.5B by Engie (PAR: ENGI).

National Storage, the largest self-storage operator, was acquired for AUD 4.0B by GIC Private and Brookfield Corporation. EV/EBITDA was 14.74x and EV/Revenue was 12.06x. Citigroup and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

European Wax Center, a franchisor and operator of OOH waxing services, was acquired for $553.6M by General Atlantic. EV/EBITDA was 14.95x and EV/Revenue was 4.58x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

I-Systems Solucoes de Infrastrutura, operator and developer of fiber infrastructure, was acquired for $171.05M by TIM. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Alkira, operator of a network cloud company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $470.0M by Lumen Technologies (NYS: LUMN).  

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Digital Asset raises ~$300M from a16z crypto: Closing at a $2B valuation, the company is backed by DRW, Citadel Securities, BNY Mellon, and Nasdaq.

Stepfun, developer of AI foundation models, raised $2.5B of venture funding from Huaqin Technology (HKG: 03296), Longcheer (SHG: 603341), and ZTE ZongChuang Investment.

Moonshot AI, developer of an AI model, raised $2.0B of venture funding led by Dragonball Capital and Meituan (HKG: 03690) at a pre-money valuation of $18.0B.

Reserv, an AI-native third-party administrator and claims technology provider, raised $125.0M of Series C venture funding led by KKR.

Restructuring Updates💭

Spirit Airlines

• Type: Chapter 11 liquidation / wind-down

• Debt: Multi-billion-dollar restructuring and aircraft obligations

• What happened: Court approved liquidation process on May 5 after failed restructuring efforts; airline ceased operations entirely (AP News)

• Scale signal: ~17,000 employees affected; 114 Airbus aircraft to be liquidated; one of the largest airline collapses since the pandemic

Wren US Holdings (Wren Kitchens U.S.)

• Type: Chapter 7 liquidation

• Debt: Assets estimated ~$100M–$500M

• What happened: Continued liquidation proceedings and full U.S. shutdown following April filing

• Scale signal: Complete closure of national retail footprint tied to Home Depot partnership

ARC Burger, LLC (Hardee’s franchisee)

• Type: Chapter 7

• Debt: ~$29M+ liabilities

• What happened: Liquidation activity and creditor proceedings continued after April filing

• Scale signal: ~77 restaurant locations across 9 states; thousands of creditors impacted

Restructuring Rumors💭

Brightline (Fortress-backed rail operator)

• Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

• Debt: ~$5.5B (WSJ)

• What happened: Multiple creditor groups hired restructuring advisers after Brightline issued a going-concern warning and entered payment grace periods with lenders

• Scale signal: One of the largest infrastructure-linked distress situations in North America; backed by Fortress Investment Group

PdVSA / Venezuela sovereign restructuring

• Type: Sovereign + state oil restructuring preparation

• Debt: $100B+ sovereign defaulted debt; ~$150B total external exposure (WSJ)

• What happened: PdVSA hired White & Case ahead of expected restructuring negotiations tied to Citgo sale and sovereign debt talks

• Scale signal: Potentially one of the largest sovereign restructuring exercises globally in recent years

Saks Global (Saks / Neiman Marcus)

• Type: Ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring stress

• Debt: ~$3.4B+ (NY Post)

• What happened: Additional layoffs and store closure plans moved forward during restructuring efforts

• Scale signal: One of the largest active U.S. retail bankruptcies; thousands of employees and dozens of stores affected

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Odds of the Day 🍒 

Breath a sigh of relief. Polymarket traders are pricing in just a 8% chance of the Hantavirus becoming a pandemic in 2026.

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