The Week Ahead - June 28th

Yet Another Peace Treaty

Author

HY Harry
June 28, 2026

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Hope everyone is getting some time to enjoy the World Cup as the tournament advances to the knockout stages.

Stocks struggled on Friday due to continued chip weakness that was amplified by reports that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO until 2027. These are driving worries over the AI spending cycle slowing down as a result, but it seems like there’s also a little rotation into laggards, such as healthcare.

We had some US strikes on Iran yesterday, but like clockwork, the US and Iran have agreed to halt strikes and plan talks for later in the week. Futures are up as a result, with the S&P up 0.60% and Nasdaq up 0.9% at the moment.

We will talk on Wednesday, but skip Friday due to the Holiday. Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Monday: Concentrix, AeroVironment

  • Tuesday: Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software

  • Wednesday: General Mills, FactSet

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Tuesday: S&P Case Shiller home price index 20 cities, Chicago Business Barometer PMI (55), Consumer confidence (94.6), Job openings (7.3M)

  • Wednesday: ADP employment (110,000), S&P final manufacturing PMI (55.7), ISM manufacturing (53.8), Construction spending (0.2%), Auto sales 

  • Thursday: U.S. unemployment report (118,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.8%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages y/y (3.5%), Initial jobless claims (221,000), Factory orders (1.1%)

  • Friday: July 4th holiday

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Jobs of The Day 💸 

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Hub International Holdings Inc. filed confidentially for an IPO with proceeds going towards debt repayment. The Hellman & Friedman-backed insurance broker was last valued at $29B in a May 2025 minority round led by T. Rowe Price, Alpha Wave Global, and Temasek.

  • Reformation, a womenswear retailer backed by Permira, has filed for an IPO, reporting $507M in 2025 revenue and 34% net revenue growth between 2015 and 2025. The brand counts Taylor Swift and Meghan Markle among its celebrity fans and plans to use proceeds for partial debt repayment and a synthetic secondary share repurchase. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.

  • 2026 is shattering records for energy IPOs, with 10+ power and clean tech companies raising $11.6B, the highest total ever for the sector. The surge is being fueled by AI data center demand, with US capacity projected to nearly double to 77 GW by 2030. Notable debuts include Fervo Energy ($1.89B), Madison Air Solutions ($2.23B, the largest US industrial IPO in nearly 30 years), and Forgent Power Solutions, which has more than doubled since its February IPO.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Lutnick clears Anthropic to restore Mythos 5 for ~100 trusted partners: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Anthropic that government agencies and private companies can use the model for defensive cyber purposes. This comes two weeks after he invoked export controls that took both Mythos 5 and Fable 5 offline.

  • SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100: ETFs and index funds tracking the tech-heavy index will begin buying SpaceX shares after the close on July 6 at an under 1% weighting. The move comes less than a month after SpaceX’s June 12 IPO debut under Nasdaq’s new fast-track framework, which cut the typical wait from months to 15 trading days.

  • Ares caps redemptions at $22.6B private credit fund: The Ares Strategic Income Fund gated withdrawals for the second straight quarter as redemption requests rose to 14.4% from 11.6% in Q1. Withdrawals were capped at the industry standard of 5%.

  • Europe dodges a jet fuel crisis heading into peak summer travel: Despite the Strait of Hormuz closure cutting off Persian Gulf supply, a combination of surging domestic refinery output and rerouted imports from the US and Nigeria kept European fuel flowing. Air traffic has exceeded 2025 levels, and Repsol boosted jet fuel yields by up to 25%.

  • Google has placed limits on Meta's usage of Gemini AI models, saying it couldn’t fulfill the full compute capacity Meta had sought to purchase. This disrupted and delayed some of Meta’s internal AI projects, with Meta subsequently pushing staff to use AI tokens more efficiently.

  • Big Law’s quiet PE investment arms: A Law.com investigation found that Sidley, Davis Polk, Simpson Thacher, Ropes & Gray, Skadden, and others operate internal funds letting partners co-invest directly in PE. The arrangement raises conflict-of-interest questions, given that these firms advise the same PE shops their partners are investing alongside.

  • Djokovic joins General Atlantic as global strategic advisor: The tennis legend will work with the PE firm’s leadership, portfolio companies, and investors as General Atlantic plans to leverage his network for health and wellness deals and expand further into sports investing.

  • Bankrupt sleepaway camp operator Simad gets permission to tap DIP financing and to put camps up for sale: Simad Holdings, which runs 30 East Coast camps charging up to $16,750/summer, won court approval to market its properties for sale. This would open up $20mm in fresh financing, with another $40mm in DIP financing available subject to court approval. The camp expects ~20,000 campers this season.

  • Pokémon cards are now a full-blown asset class: A Bloomberg Businessweek deep-dive into the three-decade-old franchise, with Logan Paul selling a single Pikachu card for $16.5M in February. TPCI did $12B in sales last year, tripled its NC manufacturing footprint, and still can’t keep shelves stocked.

  • Williams Cos. is in advanced talks to acquire Momentum Midstream for $5.5B. Williams owns more than 30,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure; a sizable amount before this potential move to acquire the EnCap Flatrock Midstream-backed natural gas pipeline operator.

  • TPG, Leonard Green explore $2B+ Troon Golf sale: The PE backers of Troon Golf, which manages 825+ courses including Kapalua and Tobacco Road, have hired banks to run a sale process valued at $2B. Rory McIlroy’s Symphony Ventures co-invested alongside TPG in 2021, and Justin Thomas and Piper Sandler’s Jimmy Dunne are also on the cap table.

  • Hunterbrook Media has acquired The Bear Cave: The Edwin Dorsey-founded bearish newsletter was acquired by the investigative news outlet and investment firm.

  • Supergirl stumbles: The Supergirl standalone film struggled at the box office, with only $38mm in sales at the domestic box office and $68mm globally; well below domestic estimates of $50-$70mm. The film had a $170mm budget before marketing. The film has a 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and 6.1 on IMDb.

  • UK startup Wayve emerges as the off-the-shelf AI driver for legacy automakers: Valued at $8.6B after a $1.5B raise backed by Stellantis, Mercedes, and Nissan, Wayve has signed deals to power hands-free driving across Stellantis brands from 2028. The company is betting that selling AI driving systems to incumbent automakers is a bigger opportunity than building its own vehicles, with London robotaxi trials with Uber launching this summer.

  • Oil jumps with US-Iran tensions flare near the Strait of Hormuz: A supertanker carrying ~2M barrels of Qatari oil was struck near the strait over the weekend, sending Brent as much as 1.9% to $73.39 before paring gains.

M&A Transactions💭 

Advanced Medical Solutions Group (LON: AMS), engaged in developing and manufacturing wound-care products, is in talks to be acquired for $659.0M by H.B. Fuller (NYS: FUL). EV/EBITDA was 11.43x and EV/Revenue was 2.19x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Synaptics (NAS: SYNA), a producer of semiconductor solutions, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $7.0B by ON Semiconductor (NAS: ON). EV/EBITDA was 83.23x and EV/Revenue was 5.97x. Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

ProAssurance, a holding company for property and casualty insurance companies, was acquired for $1.3B by The Doctors Company. EV/EBITDA was 10.73x and EV/Revenue was 1.21x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Kelonia, developer of a genetic medicine platform, was acquired for $7.0B by Lilly USA (NYS: LLY). Jefferies advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Reed Semiconductor, a developer of turnkey power management chips purpose-built to meet the high power hardware demands of AI cluster infrastructure and next-gen data centers, raised $100M of venture funding from a consortium of global semiconductor corporations.

ANYVERSE DYNAMICS, a general embodied robotics firm developing a "Latent Space World Model" and reinforcement learning architecture for autonomous industrial and commercial robots, raised over $200M of venture funding from a fund affiliated with JD.com, C Capital, Hony Capital, Shengyu Investment, and Fengyuan Investment.

Ionic Digital, a digital infrastructure company that rapidly builds and operates high-performance computing (HPC) and data center facilities optimized for intensive AI workloads, raised $400M of venture funding from Attestor, Oaktree Capital Management, and Sachem Head Capital Management (with participation from Citadel and Weiss Asset Management).

Restructuring Updates💭

Amerimed

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Not publicly disclosed.

  • What happened: Amerimed, a regional healthcare services provider, filed for Chapter 11 protection to restructure its balance sheet while continuing operations and patient services.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest new U.S. healthcare bankruptcy filings since mid-June, operating across multiple Southeastern states.

European Cargo Limited

  • Type: Administration (U.K. insolvency)

  • Debt: Not publicly disclosed.

  • What happened: The U.K. cargo airline entered administration after failing to secure additional financing, resulting in the suspension of operations.

  • Scale signal: Significant aviation insolvency involving an international air freight operator serving transatlantic routes.

West Marine (material case update)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Approximately $549 million in funded debt.

  • What happened: The Bankruptcy Court conditionally approved West Marine's amended disclosure statement and reorganization plan, advancing the company toward an August confirmation hearing while continuing its store rationalization process.

  • Scale signal: Largest boating retailer in the U.S., operating roughly 200 stores nationwide.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Georgia-Pacific / Bestwall

  • Type: Potential Chapter 11 filing

  • Debt: Exposure tied to approximately 64,000 asbestos claims.

  • What happened: Discussions around a second bankruptcy filing continued as the company evaluates a comprehensive resolution of legacy asbestos liabilities following setbacks to prior restructuring efforts.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest unresolved mass-tort restructuring situations in the United States.

Brightline

  • Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

  • Debt: Approximately $5.5 billion.

  • What happened: Creditor negotiations continued as restructuring advisers evaluated recapitalization alternatives ahead of upcoming debt maturities.

  • Scale signal: Largest active transportation infrastructure restructuring story in North America.

First Brands Group

  • Type: Distressed Chapter 11 / liquidation risk

  • Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure under restructuring.

  • What happened: Litigation between the company, creditors, and the U.S. Trustee continued as pressure mounted for a liquidation or alternative restructuring process.

  • Scale signal: Major North American automotive supplier with leading aftermarket brands and OEM relationships.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are now only pricing in a 24% chance of an OpenAI IPO this year.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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