The Week Ahead - June 21st

Get up to speed on what China's latest model. Plus, Accenture's selloff shows the ramifications of AI.

Author

HY Harry
June 21, 2026

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Hope everyone is getting some time to enjoy the world cup.

Stock futures are down slightly as oil is up to $78/bbl on peace talk shakiness. We have key inflation data dropping Wednesday as well.

We saw some ugly numbers from Accenture last week that are showing that non-AI driven consulting is in a rough spot. Plus, the tech community is starting to spend more time looking at Chinese open-source model GLM-5.2, which runs at roughly 1/6 of the token cost as Opus 4.8.

More on all this into today’s piece, let’s dive right into it.

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Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Monday: Fervo Energy, Outdoor Holding Company

  • Tuesday: FedEx Corp, Cerebras, Carnival Corporation, KB Home, Icon

  • Wednesday: Micron, Paychex, Trip.com, Jefferies

  • Thursday: Darden Restaurants, McCormick, TD Synnex, Commercial Metals, Acuity

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Tuesday: US Flash Manufacturing PMI (54.8), US Flash Services PMI (51)

  • Wednesday: New Home Sales (634K), Fed Reserve bank stress test results

  • Thursday: Durable goods (-4%), 3rd Estimate GDP (1.6%), Weekly Jobless Claims (225K), Personal Income M/M (0.4%), Consumer Spending M/M (0.5%), PCE Price Index M/M (0.5%), PCE Price Index Y/Y (4.1%), PCE Core Price Index M/M (0.3%), PCE Core Price Index Y/Y (3.4%), Kansas City Fed Survey

  • Friday: Advanced Economic Indicators Report, Wholesale Inventories, Retail Inventories, U. Michigan Final Consumer Survey (48.9)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Accenture $ACN ( ▼ 17.97% ) Revenue missed slightly at $18.7B vs. $18.8B, while EPS beat at $3.80. New bookings fell 2% to $19.3B as clients pulled back on consulting and IT projects amid macro uncertainty and middle eastern disruptions, which reduced quarterly revenue by about $100M and impacted sales by about $400M. The slowdown reflected continued caution around large transformation projects and delayed client spending decisions. Management also lowered its revenue growth outlook to 3%-4% and guided revenue to $18.47B.

  • Kroger $KR ( ▼ 8.43% ) revenue beat at $46.1B while EPS slightly missed at $1.58 vs. $1.59. Results were driven by strong digital revenue rising 19% and e-commerce turning profitable for the first time. However, increasingly price conscious shoppers made more promotional trips and fewer full-basket purchases, while Kroger invested in price cuts and promotions to defend market share, pressing margins. Management reiterated FY26 guidance but warned that food inflation is expected to accelerate later this year.

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IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Reformation could file confidentially for an IPO as soon as next week, with the womenswear retailer aiming to go public as early as July. The Permira-backed brand is on track for $500M+ in revenue this year, with a celebrity following including Taylor Swift, Meghan Markle, and Hailey Bieber driving its growth. With dozens of US stores plus international locations, the IPO would mark a potential exit for Permira, a majority owner since 2019.

  • Standard Nuclear Inc. filed for a US IPO as the nuclear fuel maker joins a wave of nuclear listings tied to AI power demand. The company designs fuels for advanced reactors including small modular units, and was valued at $838M after a $140M Series A in January. BofA and Goldman Sachs are leading the offering.

  • Kardigan Inc. $KARD ( ▲ 37.5% ) surged 38% in its Nasdaq debut Wednesday, closing at $22 versus a $16 IPO price for a ~$2B valuation. The heart drug developer raised $400M after selling 25M shares at the top of its $14-$16 range, up from the 23.3M originally marketed. JPMorgan, Jefferies, Leerink Partners, and TD led the offering.

  • International IPOs:

    • National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. filed for what could be India’s largest IPO ever at a $53B unlisted market valuation, with no listing date yet announced. The exchange’s IPO would deliver major windfalls including Azim Premji’s ~$1.2B stake and Radhakishan Damani’s ~$835M, while State Bank of India, Temasek, and Morgan Stanley are set to exit.

    • KNDS NV is paving the way for a Frankfurt and Paris IPO at a €15-18B ($17-20B) valuation after the family owners agreed to sell a 40% stake to the German government, matching France’s existing ownership. The Amsterdam-based tank maker, whose armored vehicles are being deployed in Ukraine, posted €4.4B in 2025 revenue with a €33.1B order backlog.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • US and Iran officials meet in Switzerland: The two countries are reportedly still far apart on ending the war, sending futures lower tonight. Iran wants fighting in Lebanon to stop, while the U.S. is zoned in on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Getting you up to speed on GLM 5-2: Chinese open-source model GLM-5.2 beats GPT-5.5 on SWE-bench Pro and scored within 1% of Opus 4.8 on FrontierSWE across long-horizon coding tasks at 1/6 of the cost. Built entirely on Huawei Ascend chips for an estimated $25M in training costs, and priced at $5.80/M tokens vs. $35 for GPT-5.5. The impressive MIT-licensed release lands as Trump export controls on Claude Fable 5 push enterprises toward sovereign, locally-hostable alternatives, helping drive the owner of Z.ai’s stock up 90% to an all-time high.

    • Naturally, if open source models running at fractional costs are not too far off from frontier models, then this creates a pricing war problem for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. This is close to a “DeepSeek moment” and the Street isn’t quite talking about it yet.

  • Medallia’s collapse forces private credit lenders to become equity owners: Thoma Bravo handed Medallia’s keys to a Blackstone-led creditor group this week after writing off a $5B equity stake, with lenders who marked loans at par now holding assets worth 60-70 cents on the dollar. Fitch pegs private credit default rates at 6%, an all-time high.

    • The “next Medallias” to watch are Coupa and Zendesk, all 2021-2022 LBOs facing the same AI-disruption and high leverage.

  • Gibson Capital quietly exited private credit months before the redemption gates shut: The $3B wealth manager flagged deteriorating spreads, weakening covenants, and a suspicious loan markup in the $33B Cliffwater fund, pulling $80M in client money out in December before Cliffwater capped withdrawals at 5-7% the following quarters.

  • PIF explores minority stake sale in Newcastle United: The Saudi sovereign wealth fund is in exploratory talks with KKR-owned Arctos Partners as it weighs outside investment to redevelop or replace St James’ Park. The talks come as PIF pulls back from LIV Golf, raising questions about its broader sports spending appetite given rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

  • Brookfield leads bidding for XpFibre: The asset manager is in advanced negotiations to acquire Altice France’s 50.01% controlling stake in the fiber-to-the-home operator, which Drahi has been valuing at €8B. KKR, DigitalBridge, and Vauban were also shortlisted.

  • KKR commits $1.4B to Altavair partnership: The fresh equity commitment, drawn from KKR’s Infrastructure and Asset-Based Finance strategies, reflects airline demand for sale-leaseback flexibility as fleet funding needs mount. This investment brings total KKR capital deployed in aviation to $12B+ since 2015.

  • SNAP restrictions put $830M in food and beverage sales at risk: USDA has approved purchase restriction waivers in 23 states, covering roughly 1/3 of all SNAP recipients, with most waivers targeting sugary drinks and candy. Food manufacturers, namely Hershey, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, and Kraft Heinz, are accelerating reformulations to get ahead of regulations.

  • South Korea’s chip bonuses put the Bank of Korea on inflation watch: SK Hynix and Samsung employees are projected to receive up to $400-450K in bonuses, tied to profit-sharing deals struck after labor disputes. This prompted the BOK to flag demand-side inflation risk above its 2% target, with luxury spending already surging.

  • Goldman cuts gold target to $4,900 on no Fed cuts in 2026, reflecting lower expected ETF inflows as rate cut expectations push into mid-2027. The bank warns prices could fall to $4,400 if the Fed hikes.

  • Major studios pass on Luca Guadagnino’s Sam Altman film “Artificial”: The $40M film starring Andrew Garfield as Altman was dropped by Amazon MGM months after its $50B OpenAI deal, with Focus Features, Warner Bros.’ Clockwork, A24, and Netflix all passing on the project. Mubi is now pursuing the film, and Neon is also reportedly interested.

  • PE sponsors turn to hot loan market to fund their own payouts: Ten borrowers have launched $3.5B+ in leveraged loans and high yield bonds to fund payouts to PE owners over the past four weeks, which accounts for half of this year’s entire dividend recap volume. Blackstone and Warburg Pincus piled more debt onto IntraFi to fund a payout to themselves for the seventh time in three years.

M&A Transactions💭 

Flexstone Partners to acquire Glouston Capital Partners, a Boston-based PE secondaries manager with over $3.4B in AUM, to form $15.0B private equity platform.

TPG to acquire Waste Eliminator and Liberty Waste Solutions from Allied Industrial Partners. Houlihan Lokey advised Waste Eliminator and Stifel advised Liberty Waste Solutions on the sales.

RBL Bank (NSE: RBLBANK), an Indian commercial bank, was acquired for $2.75B by Emirates NBA Bank (DFM: EMIRATESNBD). EV/Revenue was 3.86x.

Partnered Health, operator of a chain of healthcare facilities, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 450.0M by Bupa.

Multiplex, operator of a construction contractor company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $650.0M by Obayashi (TKS: 1802). EV/EBITDA was 10.48x and EV/Revenue was 0.17x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Intertek Group (LON: ITRK), one of the largest and oldest companies in the testing, inspection, and certification industry, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 10.6B by EQT. EV/EBITDA was 14.59x and EV/Revenue was 3.15x. J.P. Morgan, PJT Partners, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Innovist, operator of a personal care brand, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $400.0M by L’Oreal (PAR: OR). EV/Revenue was 4.62x.

Greenlea Premier Meats, producer of grass-fed products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $800.0M by Anzco Foods. EV/Revenue was 1.33x.

Exolaunch, provider of satellite launch services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $339.0M by EQT. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Celero Commerce, developer of payment processing and business management software, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $625.0M by Deluxe (NYS: DLX). EV/Revenue was 3.13x. Financial Technology Partners advised on the sale.

Xella International, manufacturer of building materials, was acquired for EUR 1.85B by Holcim (SWX: HOLN). EV/Revenue was 1.94x.

Blue Canyon Technologies, manufacturer of spacecraft and components, as reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $620.0M by MDA Space (TSE: MDA).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Manifold Space, developer of AI software, raised CNY 1.0B of Pre-A+ venture funding from Hubble Investment, Beijing Automotive Group Industrial Investment, and Guoxin Science and Technology Innovation Fund.

LiblibAI, developer of an AI-based painting platform, raised $300.0M of Series B+ venture funding led by Shunwei Capital and Granite Asia at a pre-money valuation of $1.7B.

Dream, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised $260.0M of Series C venture funding led by Bicycle Capital and Group 11 at a pre-money valuation of $2.74B.

Behavox, developer of AI-based enterprise surveillance software, raised $175.0M of venture funding from HPS Investment Partners at a pre-money valuation of $265.14M.

Restructuring Updates💭

Sleep Number Corporation

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Approximately $672M debt outstanding; agreed to a $415M sale to Sleep Country Canada.

  • What happened: Sleep Number formally entered Chapter 11 and launched a court-supervised sale process, with Sleep Country Canada acting as the stalking-horse bidder. Operations are continuing during the restructuring.

  • Scale signal: More than 500–600 stores, roughly $1.4B annual revenue, making it one of the largest consumer bankruptcies of 2026.

West Marine

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Not publicly disclosed in recent filings.

  • What happened: Following its bankruptcy process, West Marine announced the closure of 59 stores across 23 states as part of a restructuring and footprint reduction plan.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest specialty outdoor and marine retailers in the U.S., with a nationwide footprint and broad recreational boating exposure.

MTF Subs (Subway franchisee)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Estimated $1M–$10M.

  • What happened: The operator of 43 Subway restaurants filed Chapter 11 and immediately closed six locations while evaluating further restructuring actions.

  • Scale signal: Large regional Subway franchisee spanning four states with dozens of operating locations.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Georgia-Pacific / Bestwall

  • Type: Potential new Chapter 11 filing

  • Debt: Exposure tied to roughly 64,000 asbestos claims.

  • What happened: A senior executive disclosed that Georgia-Pacific is evaluating a second bankruptcy filing to implement a global asbestos settlement after negotiations with claimants.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest mass-tort restructuring situations in the U.S., involving decades of asbestos liabilities.

Brightline

  • Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

  • Debt: More than $5B.

  • What happened: Creditors continue hiring advisers and negotiating restructuring alternatives as debt deadlines and interest-payment pressures mount.

  • Scale signal: The largest active infrastructure distress story in North America, tied to private passenger rail expansion.

First Brands Group

  • Type: Liquidation / restructuring uncertainty

  • Debt: Case tied to an alleged $2.3B fraud-related collapse and a multi-billion-dollar capital structure.

  • What happened: The company returned to court as liquidation efforts and disputes over the restructuring path continued. Creditor and trustee pressure remains intense.

  • Scale signal: Parent of major automotive aftermarket brands including FRAM, Raybestos, and Autolite.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

A look at some of the notable stocks making or nearing 52-week lows:

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. Today’s newsletter is sponsored by a Paid Partnership with Shortcut, by Fundamental.