The Week Ahead - June 14th

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

The SpaceX IPO opened at $150/share after pricing at $135/share. The stock reached a high of $176.30/share before falling to a close of $160.95/share - a $2.11 trillion valuation. Elon Musk is now the World’s first Trillionaire, and over 4,000 workers who played their part in helping the Company are now millionaires - this includes cafeteria workers, welders, and janitors who were awarded in stock. As for the lockup period, early investors will be able to sell 7% of their holdings after 70 to 135 post-IPO increments, with full sales allowed at the 6-month mark.

Plus, it looks like we have an Iran peace deal!!!

Given some travel for the World Cup and the holiday on Friday, we’re going to condense our Wednesday and Friday morning newsletters into one Thursday morning piece.

Let’s get into it. Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Dave & Buster's, Canopy Growth

• Tuesday: La-Z-Boy, John Wiley & Sons, Vince Holding

• Wednesday: Jabil, CarMax

• Thursday: Accenture, Kroger

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey (13.9), Industrial production (0.3%), Capacity utilization (76.2), Home builder confidence index (37)

• Tuesday: Import price index (0.8%), Import price index minus fuel, Housing starts (1.41M), Building permits (1.42M)

• Wednesday: U.S. retail sales (0.5%), Retail sales minus autos ( 0.6%), Pending home sales (1.0%), Business inventories (0.5%), FOMC interest-rate decision, Fed Chairman Warsh press conference

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (226,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (11.0), Leading index (0.2%)

• Friday: None — Juneteenth federal holiday

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• None today

On The Move 📈 📉

• Space stocks $RKLB ( ▼ 10.8% ) , $RDW ( ▼ 11.53% ) , $ASTS ( ▼ 15.53% ) , $FLY ( ▼ 19.05% ) , and $SPCE ( ▼ 31.76% ) plunged after Thursday’s rally as $SPCX ( ▲ 19.22% ) went public in the largest IPO ever, raising a record $75B and valuing the company above $2T.

• Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 6.76% ) fell further after the weak Thursday numbers, as investors treated the 2Q print as another reminder that the AI overhang is not going away. The company delivered a headline beat and raise, but CFO Dan Durn’s exit and concerns that AI could pressure Adobe’s core software revenue kept the focus on the longer term risks.

• Roku $ROKU ( ▲ 20.08% ) jumped after credible reports said the streaming platform is exploring a potential sale and has held early talks with at least one U.S. media company, fueling takeover speculation even though discussions remain preliminary. Investors also focused on Roku’s 100M+ household platform and connected-TV ad business as potential buyer appeal.

• Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 4.9% ) fell after 2Q revenue missed estimates and declined 5% y/y, adding to concerns that the homebuilder is still under pressure from a softer housing market. EPS met expectations but dropped from last year, while operating margin contracted as weaker profitability weighed on the print.

• StubHub $STUB ( ▲ 7.91% ) jumped after Guggenheim reiterated its Buy rating and $12.50 price target, citing a World Cup driven demand boost and potential upside to adjusted EBITDA guidance as live event spending remains resilient.

• Memory stocks $MU ( ▼ 1.43% ) , $SNDK ( ▲ 5.24% ) , $WDC ( ▲ 6.36% ) , and $STX ( ▲ 7.25% ) bounced back after losses tied to Iran tensions, with SK Hynix’s plan to triple wafer capacity by 2034 supporting the move.

• Charter $CHTR ( ▲ 4.8% ) climbed as oil prices tumbled on hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, lifting the broader consumer discretionary sector.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• SpaceX made history Friday with the largest IPO of all time, closing 19% above its $135 IPO price at $160.95 for a $2.2T fully diluted market cap that ranks it the world’s sixth most valuable public company. The deal drew over $350B in total demand, with institutions placing $250B+ in orders and retail submitting another $100B+. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire after the listing, retaining ~82% voting control. The offering was anchored by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.

• SK Hynix is set to choose Nasdaq for its planned US listing as soon as August, with the South Korean memory chipmaker eyeing a raise of up to $14B after filing confidentially in March. The Nvidia supplier has surged 230% this year on AI-driven demand lifting its market cap above $1T in May. SEC approval is expected the week of June 22.

• Big3 is going public via a SPAC merger with Graf Global Corp. at a $290M pre-money valuation, with the deal expected to close in Q4. The 3-on-3 basketball league, founded by Ice Cube and Jeff Kwatinetz, is backed by Fortress Investment Group executives and PayPal co-founder Ken Howery.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• US and Iran reach peace deal: The two sides agreed Sunday to end nearly four months of fighting, with the US lifting its naval blockade and Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a formal signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland. The agreement opens 60 days of nuclear talks with Iran seeking sanctions relief and access to billions in frozen cash in exchange for limits on its program.

• Anthropic’s model gets pulled: The U.S. government suspended all access of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 to any foreign national. As a result, the Company has disabled both models in order to ensure compliance. Anthropic believes this is a misunderstanding from the U.S. government regarding the severity of an issue that was reportedly flagged by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy. Yes, a conversation between Jassy and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly led to the Trump administration’s abrupt decision.

  • Meanwhile, David Sacks, has stated that Anthropic and the U.S. had a dispute over how serious the model “jailbreak” was, resulting in the export control, and with the government hoping a remediation will get the models released again.

• Apollo eyes Austin for second US headquarters: The firm, currently headquartered at 9 West 57th in Manhattan, has narrowed its search to Austin over South Florida, drawn by tech talent density and proximity to large Texas allocators.

• BlackRock’s $25B private credit fund HLEND hit with 13.3% redemption requests in Q1, capping withdrawals at 5% ($620M). Retail investors are fleeing amid concerns over credit quality, valuation transparency, and AI disruption risk.

• Mistral seeks €3B raise at €20B valuation: The French startup, valued at €11.7B just nine months ago, is pitching investors on its position as the infrastructure backbone for European governments and industrial firms. Airbus and BMW have already signed.

• SpaceX debuts as 8th largest public bitcoin holder: With 18,712 BTC (~$1.2B), the aerospace company ranks just behind MicroStrategy’s 845K BTC, and, combined with Tesla’s 11,509 BTC, would rank Musk 4th among public holders. Bitcoin itself is down 27% YTD, trading near $64K.

• State AGs open joint investigation into OpenAI: The coalition has requested information from OpenAI on a wide range of topics, with the company saying it is cooperating but declining to name the states or specify what was requested. The probe follows Florida’s lawsuit earlier this month against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman over ChatGPT safety.

• Chevron CEO Mike Wirth open to expanding Middle East footprint: Wirth said terms from would-be partners have improved recently despite the Iran conflict, signaling appetite for new deals in the region. Chevron currently draws about 5% of its global output from the Middle East, versus 20%+ for some international rivals.

• Meta moves to cap employee AI spending: An internal memo to 6,000 employees flagged an exponential increase in AI usage, with Meta on track for billions in 2026 from internal use alone. Starting 2027, the company will roll out token budgets and a central dashboard called “AI Gateway,” steering employees away from third-party tools toward its own coding assistant MetaCode.

M&A Transactions💭 

Ultradent Products, manufacturer of dental medical devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 144.3B by Mitsui Chemical America.

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE: TFPM) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Gold Stream of EMR Capital and Gold Energy and Resources for $440.0M.

Transcend Therapeutics, operator of a neuroscience-focused clinical-stage company, was acquired for $1.225B by Otsuka Pharmaceutical. Centerview Partners advised on the sale.

Scientia Vascular, manufacturer of endovascular devices, was acquired for $550.0M by Medtronic (NYS: MDT). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Navitas Credit, provider of business financing services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.9B by Wafra. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Crowe, provider of accounting services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.0B by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. EV/Revenue was 0.46x. Harris Williams advised on the sale.

Brazos Midstream, operator of a natural gas and crude oil company, was acquired for $1.6B by Western Midstream Partners (NYS: WES). EV/Revenue was 66.12x. Jefferies and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Alinta Energy, operator of power-generation facilities, was acquired for AUD 6.5B by Sembcorp Industries (SES: U96).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

NinjaOne, developer of unified operations and endpoint management platform, raised $400.0M of Series C venture funding from CapitalG, Teacher’s Venture Growth, Pinegrove Venture Partners, and Lead Edge Capital at a pre-money valuation of $11.9B.

Genspark, agentic workplace software platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from Sozo Ventures, UpHonest Capital, and Mirae Asset.

Restructuring Updates💭 

Sleep Number Corporation

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Approximately $588M revolver debt outstanding, plus broader liabilities associated with its restructuring.

• What happened: Sleep Number filed Chapter 11 on June 12 and entered a court-supervised sale process. Sleep Country Canada agreed to serve as the stalking-horse bidder in a proposed $415M acquisition, while the company obtained DIP financing to continue operating.

• Scale signal: Roughly 600 stores, about $1.4B of annual revenue, and one of the largest consumer-facing bankruptcies of 2026.

At Home Group

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Approximately $2B debt load.

• What happened: The home décor retailer continued through its Chapter 11 restructuring after reaching a lender-backed restructuring agreement designed to deleverage the balance sheet and keep most stores operating.

• Scale signal: Roughly 260 stores nationwide, making it one of the largest retail restructurings currently active in the U.S.

Trinseo PLC

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Approximately $3.4B liabilities versus $2.3B assets.

• What happened: Trinseo's restructuring advanced through initial bankruptcy proceedings with DIP financing and negotiations over a debt-for-equity restructuring plan.

• Scale signal: Global chemicals manufacturer with multi-billion-dollar operations across plastics, latex binders, and engineered materials.

Restructuring Rumors💭

Brightline

• Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

• Debt: Approximately $5.5B.

• What happened: Creditor groups remain engaged with restructuring advisers following going-concern warnings and debt-service pressure, with negotiations ongoing around potential balance-sheet solutions.

• Scale signal: One of the largest infrastructure and transportation distress situations in North America.

First Brands Group

• Type: Distressed Chapter 11 / liquidation risk

• Debt: More than $10B capital structure under stress, with significant administrative claims disputes.

• What happened: The U.S. Trustee continues pushing for alternatives to the current restructuring plan, including potential trustee-led liquidation scenarios.

• Scale signal: Major automotive supplier serving OEM and aftermarket customers across North America.

QVC Group

• Type: Chapter 11 restructuring dispute

• Debt: Entered restructuring with approximately $6.6B debt, targeting a reduction to roughly $1.3B.

• What happened: Confirmation hearings and shareholder objections intensified, with preferred shareholders challenging a plan that would largely eliminate their recovery.

• Scale signal: One of the largest active media and retail restructurings in the U.S., encompassing QVC, HSN, and Cornerstone Brands.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 78% chance of Anthropic going public in 2026

Meme of the Day

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket