The Week Ahead - July 5th

Meta Moves the Market - but Futures are looking up

Author

HY Harry
July 05, 2026

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Hope everyone was able to get some time to watch the world cup. England and Mexico are delayed an hour, so our friends across the pond probably stayed up for the newsletter for the first time ever.

Some good news on the U.S. World Cup side - Flo Balogun’s red card was overturned after an internal review by FIFA.

The big news from last week was that Meta is selling some of its compute; worrying even the biggest AI Bulls. We’ll go over that and expand on our 2H26 outlook in tomorrow’s WSR Investing Club piece (upgrade to receive it).

Tech is rallying at the moment though, with Nasdaq futures +1.3% and S&P futures +0.45% at the moment. So if the market waves off last week’s Meta compute news and keeps the AI train going, it will be really telling. That’s our hunch, and other strategists are taking that view too, but let’s see what happens as Wall Street logs back in.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Tuesday: Penguin Solutions

  • Wednesday: Levi Strauss & Co, Helen of Troy, AZZ, PriceSmart

  • Thursday: PepsiCo, WD-40, Simply Good Foods Company

  • Friday: Delta

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Monday: S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services

  • Tuesday: U.S. trade balance

  • Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, Minutes of Fed’s June FOMC meeting, Consumer credit

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Existing home sales

  • Friday: None scheduled

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Today’s Jobs:

  1. Rallyday Partners is hiring a Private Equity Associate (Denver, Colorado)

  2. A Family Office is hiring a Private Equity Associate or VP (Dallas, TX)

  3. BlackRock is hiring a 2027 PE Associate (NY)

  4. Invesco is hiring an Associate PM (Atlanta)

  5. First Eagle is hiring a Research Analyst (NY)

Earnings Corner 💸 

  • General Mills $GIS ( ▼ 1.89% ) Revenue beat at $4.61B vs. $4.60B, while EPS beat at $0.95. Results were driven by resilient demand for pantry staples as consumers continued eating at home, while higher pricing, favorable product mix, and margin expansion offset inflationary cost pressures and lifted profitability. Management also announced a $3B multi-year cost savings plan aimed at streamlining operations and funding future growth investments. However, FY27 guidance remained cautious, with management expecting little improvement in the consumer environment.

  • FactSet $FDS ( ▼ 1.67% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue at $622.9M vs. $616M, and EPS at $4.56. Results were driven by growing demand for financial data as clients expanded subscriptions to support AI applications, pushing organic ASV growth to 7.1%. ASV retention remained above 95%, while users increased 12% y/y, reflecting strong recurring subscription demand. Management believes AI is becoming a tailwind rather than a threat, with AI-enabled clients growing roughly 50% faster than other customers. Guidance was reaffirmed, with management saying results are tracking toward the high end of outlook.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Jersey Mike’s Subs Inc. officially filed for a US IPO at a ~$12B valuation with an expected $1B+ raise. Blackstone acquired the sandwich chain for ~$8B including debt last year, with founder Peter Cancro moving to chairman in April and former Wingstop CEO Charlie Morrison taking over as CEO. The chain has 3,300+ US and Canada locations with plans to open 300 stores in the UK and Ireland. Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and JPMorgan are leading the offering.

  • Cumberland Farms Ltd. filed for an IPO targeting a ~$1B raise at a ~$9B valuation. The Charlotte-based gas station and convenience store operator is held by parent EG Group, which is half owned by buyout firm TDR Capital. BofA, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies are leading the offering under ticker CMBY.

  • IQM $IQMX ( ▲ 0.75% ) went public via a SPAC merger on Nasdaq, raising $234M through the deal and a concurrent PIPE. The Finnish quantum computing firm, formed in 2018 from a university in Espoo, has delivered 18 machines to customers and will use proceeds to expand facilities and pursue acquisitions. JPMorgan served as the financial adviser to the deal.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Microsoft launches Frontier Co: The $2.5B subsidiary will embed 6,000 forward deployed engineers with clients to help them adopt AI. Rodrigo Kede Lima, previously head of Microsoft’s Asia business, will lead the unit. The move follows Amazon’s $1B FDE initiative two days earlier and similar groups launched by Anthropic and OpenAI in May.

  • Blue Owl private-credit funds see $4.7B in Q2 redemption requests: Investors asked to pull $3.6B from the flagship fund (19% of shares) and $1.1B from the tech-focused fund (38%), down from the $5.4B total in Q1. Blue Owl capped redemptions at 5%, and the largest fund has $11.6B of liquidity.

  • Hayfin raises €15B for Direct Lending Fund V: The European direct lender pulled in $17.1B, nearly 2x its €8B target, and the fund is already 50% deployed across 35+ companies. Co-CEO Mark Tognolini said US investors drove the biggest jump in the LP base, citing Europe’s lower software exposure and smaller reliance on retail capital.

  • Principal Asset Management to launch Sharia-compliant US private credit fund: The Iowa-based firm is working with a Saudi institution on a fund targeting Gulf family and institutional investors, with fundraising set to begin later this year. The fund will lend to Main Street US businesses such as plumbing and automotive repair, with every deal Sharia-compliant end-to-end.

  • CVC plans €1.2B high-yield bond sale for Irca buyout: The notes will replace a bridge facility provided by Barclays, BNP Paribas, HSBC, and UBS after CVC agreed to acquire Irca, an Italian food-ingredients maker, from Advent International. This deal adds to a modest pickup in LBO-backed European high-yield issuance.

  • Barclays pulls $960M Sound Physicians loan: The hospital staffing firm’s debt sale, offered at S+500, failed to attract investors and clear a June 30 deadline. Barclays is expected to reprice and relaunch.

  • Private equity industrials investment on pace for a six-year high: PE and VC deal value in the sector hit $82B through May, on track to surpass $141B 2025 total. This is driven by data center buildout, defense spending, and logistics rewiring, reflecting a broader rotation away from software.

  • Lenders take control of Aventiv from Platinum Equity: Legacy creditors will hold 97% of the reorganized equity of the prison phone company after California regulators approved the ownership transfer in June. Platinum bought Aventiv for $1.6B in 2017 but failed to sell or refinance the business as regulatory risk increased borrowing costs.

  • Pennsylvania’s teachers’ pension flags private equity as its biggest drag: PSERS’ $10.1B PE allocation returned just 2.59% against a 10.06% benchmark, the only asset class to miss targets across every time horizon from 1-15 years. The fund had cut PE exposure from 16.3% to 11.8% of assets.

  • AI debt is inflating the investment-grade bond market’s credit quality: Hyperscaler issuance has pushed AA- and A-rated bonds to 52% of Bloomberg’s US IG index (vs. 46% in 2021), as $220B in AI-linked bonds hit the market YTD (up 62% from all of 2025).

  • ElevenLabs is in talks to raise at a $22B valuation as voice AI revenue hits $500M: The startup, valued at $11B just five months ago, is in early talks to let employees sell shares at double that valuation. ElevenLabs has signed enterprise deals with Deutsche Telekom, BCG, and Revolut, with an IPO still 2-3 years out.

M&A Transactions💭 

Nexans Autoelectric, manufacturer of automotive wire harnesses and vehicle wiring systems, was acquired for EUR 207.0M by Samvardhana Motherson International (NSE: MOTHERSON). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Olivia Star, operator of an observation deck and hospitality destination, was acquired for EUR 150.0M by Strabag (WBO: STR).

Banistmo, provider of commercial, consumer, and investment banking services, was acquired for $1.418B by La Hipotecaria. Citigroup Global Markets and J.P. Morgan Securities advised on the sale.

Bell Partners, real estate investment and multifamily property management firm, was acquired for $350.0M by Sun Life Financial (TSE: SLF). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Capricorn Energy (LON: CNE), oil and gas exploration and production company focused on Egypt, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $360.0M by Genel Energy No. 9. The EV/EBITDA was 6.53x and the EV/Revenue was 2.65x. Canaccord Genuity and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

CoolIT Systems, developer of liquid cooling technology for data centers and high-performance computing, was acquired for $4.75B by Ecolab (NYS: ECL). The EV/Revenue was 8.64x. Morgan Stanley and Robert W. Baird & Co. advised on the sale.

Covelya Group, manufacturer of underwater navigation, sensing, and imaging technologies, was acquired for $615.0M by Kraken Robotics (TSX: PNG). The EV/EBITDA was 14.04x and the EV/Revenue was 3.28x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Farmacie Italiane, operator of a chain of retail pharmacies, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 300.0M by Česká Lékárna Holding. The EV/Revenue was 0.54x.

Gulf Coast Ammonia, producer of ammonia for fertilizer and industrial markets, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.3B by Yara North America. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

LayerX, developer of enterprise browser security software, was acquired for $205.0M by Akamai Technologies (NAS: AKAM). Jefferies Financial Group advised on the sale.

Maxim Group Australia, provider of electrical engineering and infrastructure services, was acquired for AUD 254.0M by Tasmea (ASX: TEA).

Spectre, manufacturer of outdoor apparel and technical garments, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for DKK 1.025B by Schouw & Co (CSE: SCHO). ABG Sundal Collier advised on the sale.

Stash, developer of a personal finance application, was acquired for $425.0M by Grab Holdings (NAS: GRAB).

Treatt, operates in the fragrance and FMCG industries, was acquired for GBP 131.76M by Dohler.

The Non-Optical Analog/Mixed-Signal Sensor Business of ams-OSRAM (SWX: AMS) was acquired for EUR 570.0M by Infineon Technologies (ETR: I FX).

Arbex, operator of a tissue business, was acquired for $1.7B by Suzano (BVMF: SUZB3).

Barrenjoey Capital Partners, provider of financial consulting services, was acquired for AUD 903.85M by Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG). EV/Net Income was 14.31x and EV/Revenue was 2.96x.

Bravo Students, provider of accommodation services, was acquired for EUR 330.0M by Nuveen Real Estate.

Clever Devices, developer of scalable and modular intelligent transportation systems, was acquired for $220.0M by Hitachi Rail. EV/Revenue was 1.0x.

The Australian Business of Cumberland Farms was acquired by Ampol (ASX: ALD) for $830.0M.

EDF Renewable Energy, provider of renewable energy services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.2B by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.

GENCO Product Lifecycle Logistics, a business of managing hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.4B by CMA CGM.

Giant Eagle, operator of a supermarket chain, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.65B by Kroger (NYS: KR). EV/Revenue was 0.18x. Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Gor Factory, manufacturer and provider of textile garments, was acquired for EUR 800.0M by JHK Trader.

IBV Brasil Petroleo, provider of drilling services, was acquired for INR 23.12B by Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BOM: 500547).

JasperSoft, developer of open source business intelligence software, was acquired for $240.0M by Actian. EV/Revenue was 4.48x.

Labrie Group, manufacturer, distributor, and supplier of waste management equipment, was acquired for $1.035B by Hiab (HEL: HIAB). EV/EBITDA was 9.16x and EV/Revenue was 2.11x.

Lacorium Health International, developer of dermatological skincare products, was acquired for $150.0M by Prestige Consumer Healthcare (NYS: PBH). EV/Revenue was 3.32x.

Mediclinic South Africa, operator of a private healthcare-services group, was acquired for $947.0M by Mediclinic International (MUN: MO4).

MPC Kinetic, provider of construction and maintenance services, was acquired for AUD 400.0M by GenusPlus Group (ASX: GNP). EV/Revenue was 0.82x.

Naveris, developer of blood test technology, was acquired for $160.0M by CareDx (NAS: CDNA). EV/Revenue was 4.57x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Orb, developer of a revenue platform, was acquired for $335.0M by Adyen (AMS: ADYEN).

Passport, provider of international shipping services, was acquired for $425.0M by Global-e Online (NNAS: GLBE). EV/Revenue was 4.25x.

President’s Choice Financial, provider of digital banking and consumer credit services, was acquired for $800.0M by Equitable Bank (TSE: EQB).

Reap, developer of digital payments platform, was acquired for $600.0M by Kraken. EV/Revenue was 20.0x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

BatX Energies, developer of a battery recycling platform, raised $1.05B of Series A venture funding from Excel Industries, IvyCap Ventures, JITO Incubation & Innovation Foundation, Mankind Pharma, and Zephyr Peacock.

Celea Therapeutics, developer of therapies for respiratory diseases, raised $180.0M of venture funding from Leaps by Bayer, PureTech Health, and RA Capital Management.

dConstruct Robotics, developer of autonomous industrial robotics software, raised a $125.0M of Series A venture funding.

Lanjian Hongqing, developer of low-earth orbit satellite constellation technology, raised $191.8M of Series venture funding from ABC Financial Assets Investment, Bank of Communications Financial Assets Investment, BOC International, Bofo Fund, China Securities, GP Capital (Shanghai), Guotai Junan Securities, ICBC Financial Asset Investment, Industrial Securities Company, Jianxin Financial Asset Investment, and Yizhuang Guotou at a pre-money valuation of $177.1M.

Quantum Systems, developer of commercial unmanned aerial systems and drones, raised $1.3791B of Series D venture funding from A.P. Moller Holding, Advent International, Airbus Defence and Space, Balderton Capital, Blackstone, Elephant Lake Ventures, Fidelity Management & Research Company, HV Capital Manager, Noteus Partners, and Wellington Management at a pre-money valuation of $9.076B.

Tripo, developer of an AI-powered 3D modeling platform, raised a $350.0M of Series A3 venture funding from 4399 Network, Addor Capital, Alibaba Group, Baidu Ventures, China Life Private Equity, Co-Stone Capital, Fosun Venture Capital Investment, Geely Capital, Genesis Capital (China), Giant Network, INCE Capital, Muhua Capital, Orinno Capital, Shenzhen Capital Group, T-Capital, and Tanwan.

VAST Technology, developer of generative AI-powered 3D modeling software, raised $147.6M of Series A3 venture funding from Addor Capital, Chengdu Venture Capital Group, Co-Stone Capital, Fosun Venture Capital Investment, Geely Capital, Giant Network, Tanwan Games, and Yizhuang Guotou.

Yizhu Technology, developer of AI computing chips for data centers, raised $147.6M of venture funding.

Aire, stealth-mode technology company, raised $400.0M at a pre-money valuation of $1.6B.

Shortical, operator of a mobile entertainment platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from PvX Partners, Net Capital Ventures, and Sticker Ventures.

Quizhi Technology, developer of embodied intelligent robots, raised over $100.0M of Series A venture funding from Lenovo Capital and Incubator Group, Cedarlake Capital, and Puhua Capital.

Thinking Machines Lab, developer of next-generation artificial intelligence systems, raised $2.0B from a consortium of venture capital investors at a pre-money valuation of $10.0B.

Restructuring Updates💭

Dish DBS (EchoStar subsidiary)

  • Type: Chapter 11 (prepackaged)

  • Debt: Approximately $2.0B of senior secured bonds due immediately, with restructuring tied to a $20.25B spectrum sale to AT&T.

  • What happened: Dish DBS filed Chapter 11 in Houston after delays in the AT&T spectrum transaction. The filing is backed by approximately 88% of bondholders, and the company expects to emerge from bankruptcy by the end of Q3 while continuing Dish TV and Sling TV operations uninterrupted.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest telecommunications bankruptcies of 2026, involving a nationwide satellite television business and billions of dollars of wireless spectrum assets.

U.S. TelePacific Corp. (TPx Communications)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Not publicly disclosed.

  • What happened: U.S. TelePacific and 11 affiliated entities filed Chapter 11 petitions seeking joint administration to restructure the communications provider's balance sheet while continuing operations.

  • Scale signal: Large U.S. business telecommunications provider serving enterprise customers nationwide through TPx Communications and affiliated operating companies.

Camp Mystic

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Not publicly disclosed.

  • What happened: Camp Mystic filed Chapter 11 nearly one year after the deadly Texas flooding, citing mounting litigation and regulatory scrutiny stemming from the disaster.

  • Scale signal: High-profile nonprofit bankruptcy involving dozens of wrongful-death lawsuits and one of the most closely watched liability-driven filings of the year.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Brightline

  • Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 risk

  • Debt: Approximately $5.5B.

  • What happened: Brightline obtained a two-week extension while negotiations with creditors continue. The company is evaluating both out-of-court restructuring alternatives and potential Chapter 11 financing, but no restructuring agreement has been reached.

  • Scale signal: The largest active transportation infrastructure restructuring situation in North America.

EchoStar Corporation

  • Type: Parent-company restructuring watch

  • Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure tied to Dish DBS and wireless spectrum assets.

  • What happened: Although Dish DBS has filed Chapter 11, investors continue to monitor whether additional restructuring actions may be required at the EchoStar parent level depending on the timing of the AT&T and SpaceX spectrum transactions.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest ongoing balance-sheet restructurings in the U.S. telecommunications sector.

TG Jones (formerly WH Smith High Street)

  • Type: Distressed restructuring

  • Debt: Approximately £50M of creditor obligations (previously disclosed).

  • What happened: Following court approval of its restructuring plan, the retailer confirmed plans to close up to 150 stores as it attempts to avoid insolvency.

  • Scale signal: Approximately 450 stores and 5,000 employees, making it one of the largest active retail restructurings in the U.K.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

There is a fun shortage in America according to a recent Bloomberg report:

As computers and phones have advanced, Americans have fewer places to go and socialize than they historically did:

Housekeeping Items:

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