The Week Ahead - July 19th

Spain Wins, The Odyssey's Big Weekend, and the Kimi K3 debate.

Author

HY Harry
July 19, 2026

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

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Today’s Note:

The U.S. and Iran War is escalating again, and X is debating what to make of Kimi K3.

The U.S. completed precision strikes against Iranian military sites this weekend, and three US service members lost their lives in Jordan and Iraq. Much of this back and forth remains confined to the weekend, but Oil has rocketed higher to $83+/bbl, up 13%+ over the past 5 days. Live updates from the NYT are here.

With Kimi K3, full-blown optimism around the model disrupting the frontiers grinded to a halt after they announced that they had to pause new subscriptions and prioritize compute for current members. Obviously, this is bullish compute, but it draws into question how transformative this announcement really was. This seems to be a recurring trend with models coming out of China, but the overhang risk seems extremely real. In a sentiment check poll ran by Bucco Capital, a prominent Tech investor voice, nearly 64% of polled participants said both Anthropic and OpenAI’s valuations are currently overvalued.

Given U.S futures are mixed, I’m guessing we will see a divergence in how AI names trade tmrw.

Lastly, Spain officially beat 10-man Argentina in the FIFA World Cup Final. Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Monday: Steel Dynamics, Ryanair, Crown Holdings, Domino's, AMC Entertainment

  • Tuesday: Novartis AG, Charles Schwab, 3M, Capital One, General Motors, Danaher, Hasbro, Capital One, Northrop Grumman, Ally Financial, Alaska Air

  • Wednesday: Alphabet, Tesla, Texas Instruments, IBM, AT&T, Philip Morris, GE Vernova, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, Moody’s, CSX, United Rentals, Wyndham

  • Thursday: Intel, RTX, T-Mobile, Thermo Fisher, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Lazard, Coca-Cola, Deckers Outdoor, Comcast, Honeywell, Nasdaq, SAP SE, American Airlines, TotalEnergies, Tractor Supply, Albertsons, Harley-Davidson

  • Friday: American Express, Verizon, Charter Communications, NextEra Energy

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Monday: U.S. leading economic indicators (0.0%)

  • Tuesday: None scheduled

  • Wednesday: None scheduled

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims (212,000)

  • Friday: S&P flash U.S. services PMI (5.11), S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (54.4), New home sales (600,000)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Truist Financial $TFC ( ▼ 1.41% ) revenue beat at $5.30B vs. est. $5.18B, while EPS beat at $1.23 vs. est. $1.08. Results were driven by stronger fee income, investment banking and trading activity, wealth management growth, disciplined expense control, and improving profitability, while credit quality remained healthy. Management repurchased $1.2B of stock, reaffirmed its $5B buyback plan, and lowered its net interest income outlook as it shifts toward higher quality lending.

  • Travelers Company $TRV ( ▲ 9.22% ) revenue beat at $11.53B vs. est. $11.26B, while EPS beat at $10.26 vs. est. $5.34. esults were driven by lower catastrophe losses, as the company paid fewer claims from natural disasters, stronger underwriting, favorable reserve development, and a 14% increase in investment income from higher fixed-income yields and a larger investment portfolio, improving the combined ratio. Management returned more than $1.5B to shareholders, including $1.3B in buybacks, and maintained its outlook.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Moonshot AI plans a Hong Kong IPO as soon as six months from now at a valuation potentially over $30B. The Chinese AI startup’s newly launched Kimi K3 model outperforms all rivals except Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI GPT-5.6. Daily sales have surged 6x+ since the launch, prompting a temporary pause on new subscriptions, with ARR climbing to $300M in June from $200M in April. China International Capital Corp and Goldman Sachs are working on the offering.

  • Latigo Biotherapeutics Inc. filed for a Nasdaq IPO Friday. The Blue Owl-backed clinical-stage biotech’s lead non-opioid pain candidate shows ~50% greater analgesic effect than Vicodin in late-stage trials. The company has raised $321.5M since its 2018 founding including a Blue Owl-led $150M Series B last March. Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Leerink Partners, and Guggenheim Securities are leading the offering.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” opened to $264.1M worldwide, a $124.5M domestic debut that outpaced franchise releases like “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” and “Supergirl”. 53% of attendees named Nolan himself as their top reason for going, part of a broader industry shift toward director-driven bets, as legacy franchises like Marvel and Transformers cool off.

  • CLO equity tranches returned -15% in Q1, as thinning arbitrage in the $1.3T market drives investors toward the exits. Eagle Point warns of a possible second straight year of losses, with one $580M Chicago fund seeing a 50% NAV decline over two years.

  • Deutsche Bank is preparing to sell $3Bn in leveraged loans for Baker Tilly, refinancing private credit debt, including the $1.5B Blackstone-led refinancings that backed the firm’s $7B merger with Moss Adams last year. Since Hellman and Friedman’s 2024 acquisition, Baker Tilly has acquired multiple regional accounting firms, including Anchin, Block & Anchin, and Berkowitz Pollack Brant.

  • SpaceX is in talks to sell computing power to the Pentagon, potentially worth several billion dollars, similar to existing arrangements with Google ($920M/month) and Anthropic ($1.25B/month). The talks come as SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 5.43% ) shares have slumped below their IPO price and are on pace to erase $1T in value.

  • Meta is in early talks to lease computing power to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth up to $10B over two years, as Meta explores building a cloud business to monetize excess AI compute. Anthropic is in an aggressive push to lock down capacity, with a $45B, three-year deal with SpaceX and a $1.8B agreement with Akamai.

  • Foundever reaches a deal to cut debt by $900M, with participating lenders taking a haircut in exchange for 35% of restructured equity, a $250M cash paydown, and a new term loan at 57.5 cents on the dollar. The Mulliez family, the controlling shareholder, is injecting $225M of the cash payment, and the deal includes CEO Laurent Uberti’s departure.

  • Wealthy boomers are increasingly upsizing houses as they age. Boomers, who hold roughly $110T in wealth and make up 42% of home buyers, already own 28% of US homes with three-plus bedrooms compared to 16% for millennials with kids, citing more space as their main reason for a new home.

  • Amazon’s Zoox issued a software recall across all 105 of its purpose-built robotaxis after an unoccupied vehicle braked hard and stopped while struggling to navigate heavy smoke near a fire scene on June 20, with no injuries reported. The update adds smoke detection to Zoox’s existing EV-scene detection, following a string of industry-wide safety issues, including Waymo’s recent recall of thousands of vehicles over construction-zone speeding.

  • NYC business tax revenue jumped 50.9% in June and reached ~$11B through the first half of the year, up 9.5% YoY, driven by record profits from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. Still, the city projects $6.4B, $8.2B, and $8.5B deficits over the next three fiscal years.

  • Apollo launched a LinkedIn campaign arguing 95% of the $40T private credit market is investment grade. The $2T “sprinkle” of leveraged lending, or financing to highly indebted companies, has faced pressure recently as investors pull money out of illiquid funds. Apollo’s message: “Don’t mistake the sprinkle for the cupcake.”

  • 68% of data center executives expect distress in the industry within 12-18 months, according to a new AlixPartners survey, citing rising energy costs, thin cash flow, and falling compute prices. The pressure comes as capital markets tighten and communities push back, with New York just becoming the first state to issue a moratorium on new hyperscale data centers.

  • Wall Street is engineering insurance wrappers that turn private credit fund stakes into investment-grade bonds insurers can hold cheaply. The fund finance market has swelled to $1T-$1.75T, drawing comparisons to the pre-2008 subprime mortgage boom. Regulators worry that if one insurer’s rating gets downgraded, every wrapped tranche it backs could get downgraded simultaneously, forcing correlated selloffs.

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M&A Transactions💭 

Chart Industries, provides a variety of cryogenic equipment for storage, was acquired for $13.05B by Baker Hughes (NAS: BKR). EV/EBITDA was 26.29x and EV/Revenue was 3.15x. Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, a commercial-stage, patient-centric biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $4.103B by Angelini Pharma. EV/EBIDTA was 13.28x and EV/Revenue was 6.87x. Degroof Petercam, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Affordable Wire Management, manufacturer of cable management hardware, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $153.0M by Array Technologies (NAS: ARRY). The transaction includes an additional consideration of up to $50.0M comprised of $10.0M payable in two equal installments on the first and second anniversary of closing, each conditioned on the continued employment of the sellers and a performance based earnout of up to $40.0M payable in three installments of up to $8.0M based on the 2026 performance and up to $16.0M for each 2027 and 2028 performance based on the company achieving a certain EBITDA target. First Liberties Financial advised on the sale.

The Catalyst Technology Unit of Johnson Matthey (LON: JMAT) was acquired by Honeywell (NNAS: HON) for GBP 1.325B. Citigroup, Deutsche Numis, and Robey Warshaw advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Crypto.com, developer of a cryptocurrency platform, raised $400.0M of Series A venture funding from Citadel Securities at a pre-money valuation of $19.6B.

Blue Energy, operator of a nuclear fission energy company, raised $380.0M of Series B venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by VXI Capital Management.

Alpaca, developer of a modern brokerage platform, raised $135.0M of venture funding led by Peak XV Partners and Elefund.

Parkway Bank, provider of banking services, raised $379.42M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Restructuring Updates💭

Superior Star LLC (Hardee's franchisee)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: Approximately $7 million owed on a disputed seller note, with additional tax and vendor liabilities. The business generated roughly $80 million in 2025 revenue.

  • What happened: Superior Star, which operates 59 Hardee's restaurants across 10 states, filed Chapter 11 after alleging the seller failed to disclose deferred maintenance, unpaid taxes, and other liabilities associated with its 2023 acquisition. The company intends to continue operating while restructuring.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest restaurant franchisee bankruptcies of 2026, employing approximately 850 people across a multi-state footprint.

Dish DBS (EchoStar subsidiary)

  • Type: Chapter 11 (prepackaged)

  • Debt: Approximately $2.0 billion of secured debt.

  • What happened: The court continued to advance the prepackaged restructuring while addressing creditor objections to the proposed recovery structure and treatment of unsecured claims.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest telecommunications bankruptcies of 2026 involving Dish TV, Sling TV, and billions of dollars of spectrum assets.

Whitewater Amphitheater (Kona Coast Venture Ltd.)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: More than $12 million in secured debt.

  • What happened: The company continued pursuing a restructuring and sale process after filing to halt foreclosure, while maintaining scheduled concerts and normal venue operations.

  • Scale signal: One of Texas' best-known outdoor concert venues and one of the larger entertainment-sector Chapter 11 cases this summer.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Brightline

  • Type: Potential Chapter 11 / restructuring

  • Debt: Approximately $5.5 billion.

  • What happened: Brightline secured another extension of its debt payment deadline, now through July 24, while negotiating debtor-in-possession financing with competing creditor groups. The company also missed a sinking-fund payment, further increasing restructuring pressure.

  • Scale signal: The largest active transportation infrastructure restructuring in North America.

Lucid Group

  • Type: Bankruptcy / restructuring rumor

  • Debt: Not disclosed publicly; the company reported approximately $3.2 billion of liquidity at the end of the first quarter.

  • What happened: Reports surfaced that Lucid was evaluating bankruptcy, restructuring, or a take-private transaction after hiring AlixPartners. Lucid publicly denied the reports, stating AlixPartners was engaged solely to improve operations. Despite the denial, the stock experienced record volatility.

  • Scale signal: One of the largest EV manufacturers in the U.S., backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, with the rumors briefly wiping billions of dollars from its market capitalization.

Hughes Network Systems (EchoStar)

  • Type: Potential restructuring

  • Debt: Approximately $1.5 billion maturity due in 2026.

  • What happened: Following the Dish DBS filing, creditors continued evaluating restructuring alternatives for Hughes amid refinancing uncertainty and liquidity concerns.

  • Scale signal: Global satellite broadband provider and one of EchoStar's most significant operating subsidiaries.

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