The Week Ahead - July 12th

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back.

In what comes as a surprise to no one, the U.S. and Iran traded strikes again while the markets were closed. The U.S. conducted its largest set of strikes since the initial April ceasefire, focusing primarily on military targets, with Iran retaliating against U.S.-aligned Middle East countries. Futures are down slightly and Oil up is 3% to nearly $74/bbl.

On the AI side, Anthropic is keeping increased Fable 5 Access through July 19th. While we have not seen a confirmed ARR number from Anthropic in a while, SemiAnalysis believes Anthropic ARR is >$60B and Yipit estimates its $69B which is well above the $47B number estimated back in May. Model enhancements, coupled with this dramatic ARR growth, are why we remain broadly constructive despite recent AI-related pullbacks.

On a separate note, Satya Nadella’s note this morning on X is front of mind for us. The Microsoft CEO echoed many of the points angrily brought up by Palantir’s Alex Karp recently - covering the fact that Enterprises shouldn’t be throwing their data into an LLM that could potentially disrupt and compete with their business. Satya is arguing that buyers are risking revealing their own IP to model providers and that companies need a “trust boundary” to exist to retain IP and finetune their own models so they’re not locked into one model. Obviously, Microsoft wants to serve as the orchestration layer, and also benefits as a cloud computing provider.

Clearly, a storm is coming. Anthropic is growing rapidly, but C-Suites may value decentralization, being model-agnostic, and control more. This is going to be a crucial narrative over the next year.

We’ve got a big week ahead with 2Q earnings dropping from the Banks plus inflation numbers.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: J P Morgan Chase & Co, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

• Wednesday: ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, The Bank Of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services, Elevance, Cintas, United Airlines

• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, UnitedHealth Group, GE Aerospace, Netflix, Abbott Laboratories, State Street, Citizens Financial,

• Friday: The Travelers Companies, Truist Financial

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Monthly U.S. federal budget (-126.0B)

• Tuesday: NFIB optimism index (95.8), Consumer price index (-0.2%), CPI y/y (3.8%), Core CPI (-0.2%), Core CPI y/y (2.8)

• Wednesday: Producer price index (-0.2%), Core PPI (0.3%), PPI y/y, Empire State manufacturing survey (9.4), Fed Beige Book

• Thursday: U.S. retail sales (0.2%), Retail sales minus autos (0.0%), Initial jobless claims (218,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (9.5), Pending home sales (-0.1%), Business inventories (0.3%)

• Friday: Import price index (0.8%), Import price index minus fuel, Housing starts (1.31M), Building permits (1.41M), Industrial production (0.3%), Capacity utilization (76.3%), Consumer sentiment prelim (50.5), Home builder confidence index (35)

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Today’s Jobs:

1. Rallyday Partners is hiring a Private Equity Associate (Denver, Colorado)

2. A Family Office is hiring a Private Equity Associate or VP (Dallas, TX)

3. Goldman is hiring a Healthcare IB Associate and FIG IB Associate (NY)

4. Antares is hiring a Loan Operations Lead (Chicago)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• Delta $DAL ( ▼ 1.81% ) revenue beat at $17.67B vs. $17.53B, while EPS beat at $1.56 vs. $1.48. Results were driven by strong travel demand, particularly for premium and corporate travel, as strong travel demand and limited industry capacity kept airfares elevated, allowing Delta to pass about 60% of its higher fuel costs on to customers despite recording its highest quarterly fuel expense ever. Revenue also outpaced capacity growth, reflecting continued pricing power rather than aggressive expansion. Management reaffirmed full year EPS guidance of $6.50–$7.50, expecting fares to remain firm as disciplined industry capacity allows airlines to recover an even greater share of higher fuel costs through the remainder of the year.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Ondas $ONDS ( ▼ 5.1% ) fell after announcing an $875M acquisition of DZYNE Technologies, which expanded its defense capabilities and manufacturing scale but triggered dilution concerns.

• Cerebras $CBRS ( ▲ 8.34% ) extended its rally on continued momentum from a Flex partnership that targets ~7x CS-3 supercomputer production by 2026 and European AI infrastructure plans backing OpenAI workloads.

• Advance Auto Parts $AAP ( ▲ 5.85% ) rose after expanding its OneRail partnership to enable AI-powered same-day delivery across its 4,000+ store network.

• Cheesecake Factory $CAKE ( ▲ 5.53% ) hit an all-time high after a Citi upgrade highlighted the new mobile app, refreshed rewards program, and promotional offers as potential customer traffic drivers.

• CCC Intelligent Solutions $CCCS ( ▲ 10.04% ) a car-insurance claims software provider, rose after Elliott Investment Management built a stake in the Company; which is now in the early stages of exploring a potential sale. They previously drew take-private interest from Bain Capital and TPG in 2023.

• Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 10.83% ) slid toward its worst week since August 2025 as profit-taking followed June’s 48% rally, with BofA, RBC, and Morgan Stanley all raising PTs but keeping cautious ratings intact.

• Circle $CRCL ( ▲ 4.97% ) rose after the OCC approved Circle’s national trust bank charter, allowing the company to manage its own USDC reserves under a single federal regulator instead of state-level supervision.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Tailored Brands Inc. filed publicly for a US IPO, marking the return of the Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank owner to public markets after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2020. The Silver Point Capital controlled menswear company eliminated $686M in debt through the bankruptcy process and Silver Point is set to retain voting control post-IPO. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies are leading the offering.

• SK Hynix $SKHYV ( ▲ 12.76% ) climbed in its Nasdaq debut Friday after raising $26.5B in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. The South Korean memory chipmaker’s ADRs traded 106M shares on day one at a 16% premium to the Seoul-listed common stock, narrowing the valuation gap with rival Micron. BofA, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan led the offering.

• Holtec Nuclear Corp. filed for a US IPO joining other nuclear listings tied to AI data center power demand. The company makes storage casks for nuclear waste and is developing small modular reactors after landing a $400M DOE grant, with the first reactor planned for its Palisades plant in Michigan. JPMorgan, Guggenheim Securities, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BofA are leading the offering.

For deeper research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club. New Piece drops later this week.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• A Vinod Khosla-led group agreed to buy the Seattle Seahawks for $9.6B, setting a new NFL record above the $6.05B Washington Commanders sale price in 2023.

• Letterboxd is in early acquisition talks with Netflix, Paramount Skydance, Sony Pictures Entertainment, TPG, and Reddit’s co-founder Alexis Ohanian. The film-review platform has 30M+ users and is currently valued above $50M, though LionTree is floating a $250M valuation for the sale.

• Warburg Pincus is nearing a deal to buy specialty pharmacy Pantherx Rare for over $7B including debt, in partnership with Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The rare and orphan disease pharmacy is currently owned by General Atlantic, Nautic Partners, and Vistria Group, who acquired it from Centene in 2022.

• Big tech is targeting Native American land for data centers because tribal sovereignty lets projects bypass the 3-10 year permitting delays common on non-tribal land. Oklahoma is “ground zero” with 38 federally recognized tribes, and the Caddo Nation is already in talks with Colusa Indian Energy to power a data center by year-end.

• Big private equity firms are pulling in more cash while smaller players get squeezed out, with funds over $1Bn capturing 80% of all money raised in 2026 so far, the highest share in over a decade. Global fundraising hit $260Bn in H1 2026, 17% ahead of last year’s pace, but only 310 vehicles closed versus 830 in 2025.

• Jones Day settled its $9.6M lawsuit against private equity firm Centre Lane Partners over allegedly unpaid legal fees, with the case dismissed with prejudice and settlement terms undisclosed. Jones Day had represented Centre Lane since 2018 before the firm allegedly stopped paying invoices in 2024.

• UBS advised clients to trim oversized private credit positions, prompting Q4 withdrawals from Blue Owl Technology Income. Blue Owl says the fund’s credit quality remains resilient, citing a 0.2% non-accrual rate and a 9.2% distribution yield despite the outflows.

• Planview’s push to refinance its debt in the private credit market has failed, pushing owners TPG Capital and TA Associates toward talks with existing lenders who want junior capital injected as part of any maturity extension. S&P cut Planview’s outlook to negative over AI-driven financing risk.

• Blackstone and TPG are seeking over $4Bn for Hologic’s Surgical unit, just months after closing their take-private of the medical device maker in April in the largest PE take-out in medtech this year.

M&A Transactions💭 

Copia Power, developer of renewable energy assets, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.6B by EQT Partners.

Autronica Fire and Security, manufacturer of fire and gas detection and prevention equipment, was acquired for $555.0M by MSA Safety (NYS: MSA).

Alfagomma, manufacturer of hydraulic and industrial fluid handling systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.0B by Danfoss.

Waldorf Production, operator of oil and gas exploration plants, was acquired for $163.0M by Harbour Energy (LON: HBR).

Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment, operator of a copper-cobalt mine, was acquired for $300.0M by Chengtun Mining Group Company (SHG: 600711).

easyJet (LON: EZJ), a leading European low-cost airline, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 5.2B by Castlelake. EV/EBITDA was 3.39x and EV/Revenue was 0.42x. Evercore Group, Panmure Liberum, and BNP Paribas advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Gauntlet, operator of a financial modeling and simulation platform, raised $125.0M of venture funding from SBI Holdings.

Elliptic, developer of a blockchain analytics platform, raised $120.0M of Series D venture funding led by One Peak Partners at a pre-money valuation of $550.0M.

Restructuring Updates💭 

Dish DBS (EchoStar subsidiary)

• Type: Chapter 11 (prepackaged)

• Debt: Approximately $2.0B of secured debt being restructured.

• What happened: Dish DBS' Chapter 11 case advanced rapidly following its filing, with creditors voting on the restructuring plan while litigation from Charter Communications and other unsecured creditors challenged elements of the proposed recovery structure.

• Scale signal: One of the largest telecommunications bankruptcies of 2026, involving Dish TV, Sling TV, and billions of dollars of satellite and spectrum assets.

Whitewater Amphitheater (Kona Coast Venture Ltd.)

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: More than $12M in secured loans; assets estimated between $10M and $50M.

• What happened: The Texas concert venue filed Chapter 11 immediately before a scheduled foreclosure sale to halt creditor action while pursuing a sale and recapitalization. The venue expects concerts to continue during the restructuring.

• Scale signal: One of Texas' premier outdoor music venues, hosting nationally recognized touring artists with a capacity of roughly 4,000 people.

Rogue Fare LLC (Mountain Mike's Pizza franchisee)

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Estimated between $1M and $10M.

• What happened: The operator of five Mountain Mike's Pizza restaurants in Oregon filed Chapter 11 while continuing operations, citing higher operating costs and weaker restaurant traffic.

• Scale signal: Multi-unit franchisee operating across Oregon as part of the 300+ location Mountain Mike's Pizza system.

Restructuring Rumors💭

Hughes Network Systems (EchoStar)

• Type: Potential restructuring

• Debt: $1.5B debt maturity due August 1, 2026.

• What happened: Bondholders hired Jones Day as restructuring counsel amid concerns Hughes lacks sufficient liquidity to refinance or repay its upcoming maturity following the Dish DBS bankruptcy.

• Scale signal: One of the largest active telecom restructuring situations, with Hughes serving satellite internet customers worldwide and representing a key subsidiary of EchoStar.

EchoStar Corporation

• Type: Parent-company restructuring watch

• Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure across satellite, wireless, and spectrum businesses.

• What happened: Following Dish DBS's bankruptcy, investors and creditors are increasingly focused on whether additional restructuring actions may be required at the parent company as spectrum transactions and refinancing efforts remain unresolved.

• Scale signal: One of the largest ongoing balance-sheet restructurings in the U.S. telecommunications sector.

Dish Wireless

• Type: Chapter 11 restructuring dispute

• Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure tied to the nationwide 5G network buildout.

• What happened: Charter Communications and other major creditors formally objected to Dish Wireless' restructuring plan, arguing the proposal unfairly favors secured creditors and undervalues unsecured claims.

• Scale signal: One of the largest active telecom restructurings in the U.S., involving nationwide wireless infrastructure and billions of dollars in network assets.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 39% chance of France winning the World Cup

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Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Private Credit fundraising has grinded lower following YTD performance concerns

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