The Week Ahead - August 9th

No Rate Hike? No Problem.

Author

HY Harry
August 09, 2026

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Friday’s weak job numbers sent stocks higher, as the prospect of no rate hike means the party can keep going. September fed decision odds are being recalculated to now a 63% chance of no change in fed fund policy, with 25bps hike odds crashing from 53% to 36%.

This week’s CPI reading will be the big tell on whether the Fed can move in September, but Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech in late August will be the next big litmus test on fed funds policy direction.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Monday: Simon Property, Ferguson Enterprises, Alcon, Barrick Mining, Quantum Computing Inc., Life360, AECOM, Hims & Hers Health, Dole, GoPro, JBS, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab

  • Tuesday: Lumentum, Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, Venture Global, On Holding, Super Micro Computer, Aramark, Smithfield Foods, CAVA, Amentum, eToro

  • Wednesday: Cisco, Coherent, Nebius, Cerebras, Amcor, Performance Food Group, Trimble, Brinker International, StubHub, Grocery Outlet, Virgin Galactic, Fossil, Jack in the Box, Red Robin

  • Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield, JD.com, Tapestry, Birkenstock, YETI, Intuitive Machines, McGraw Hill

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Monday: None scheduled

  • Tuesday: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism (97.2), Existing Home Sales (4.0M), Federal Reserve Bank of New York Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report published

  • Wednesday: CPI M/M (0.1%), Core CPI M/M (0.3%), CPI Y/Y (3.4%), CPI Core Y/Y (2.5%), Monthly Treasury Balance

  • Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims (203K), PPI (0.2%), Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M (0.2%)

  • Friday: Retail Sales (0.1%), Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories (0.1%), U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey (54.5)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

  • Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.54% ) top and bottom like beat as revenue beat at $101.8B vs. $95.3B. Operating earnings rose 16%, driven by stronger manufacturing, services and retail earnings, up 24%, along with growth at Berkshire Hathaway Energy and BNSF, which helped offset weaker insurance results as GEICO underwriting profits. The company bought back $4.5B in shares after leadership said the stock looked undervalued, and became a net buyer of stocks for the first time in 14 quarters, helping reduce cash from $397.4B to $365.5B.

  • Vistra $VST ( ▼ 0.56% ) revenue missed at $4.02B vs. $5.73B, while EPS missed at $1.68 vs. $2.05. Earnings were pressured by a $472M unrealized hedge loss, higher operating costs, and higher interest expense, even as adjusted EBITDA rose 31% on stronger realized energy and capacity prices and contributions from the Lotus plants. Demand also stayed strong, with extreme heat driving high power usage and continued growth from data centers. Vistra kept FY guidance unchanged and is investing up to $1B in its Helix data center partnership with KKR, NVIDIA, and KIA as it looks to capitalize on AI power demand.

  • Under Armour $UAA ( ▼ 4.53% ) revenue missed at $1.10B vs. $1.11B, while EPS beat. Sales fell 3% as softer consumer demand in North America and Asia-Pacific, weaker wholesale orders, lower e-commerce traffic, and heavier industry promotions weighed on results. Profitability held up better as tariff refunds, supply-chain benefits, and tighter cost control helped gross margin expand 590 bps. Mgmt. cut its FY revenue outlook but kept adjusted operating income guidance unchanged as it continues shrinking its product assortment and limiting discounting.

  • Wendy’s $WEN ( ▲ 4.06% ) Top and bottom line beat but the quarter was still weak underneath. U.S. same store sales down 7% as traffic fell 12.5%, while higher beef and labor costs pressured margins. International system sales grew 3.4%, but that wasn’t enough to offset the U.S. weakness. The company withdrew its FY outlook and cut its quarterly dividend as mgmt. works through a turnaround focused on value, food quality, operations, and restaurant economics, while 5%–6% commodity inflation is expected to keep pressure on margins.

On The Move 📈 📉

  • Celsius $CELH ( ▲ 16.83% ) rocketed on Friday after Rockstar Energy’s founder built a 4.7% stake and called for an ouster of the CEO and key executives.

  • Atlassian $TEAM ( ▲ 35.31% ) soared after Q4 cloud revenue reaccelerated to 31% YoY when investors had been bracing for a slowdown. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes also pledged to buy up to $250M in stock on the open market.

  • Doximity $DOCS ( ▲ 32.62% ) exploded after CEO Jeffrey Tangney said AI search revenue runs 10x per search in revenue vs. cost. Analysts say that AI upside isn’t reflected in the raised FY guidance.

  • SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 15.83% ) climbed as the first and largest post-IPO lockup expiration failed to trigger the feared selloff. The unlock released 911.5M shares (143% more than the June IPO float), more than doubling the public float to 11.8% from 4.9%.

  • Twilio $TWLO ( ▲ 24.89% ) jumped after raising FY2026 revenue growth to 18-18.5% and completing a $1.2B share buyback covering 10.6M shares.

  • Trade Desk $TTD ( ▼ 21.9% ) kept falling after Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $160M came in less than half of the $340M expected. Citi followed with a “Sell” downgrade and $11 PT, implying another 27% downside.

  • Under Armour $UA ( ▼ 5.42% ) fell after lowering its FY2027 revenue outlook on softer demand in North America and Asia-Pacific. Q1 revenue fell 3% and North America revenue dropped 9%.

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Switch Inc. filed confidentially for a US IPO that could come as soon as November, targeting a valuation approaching $50B. The Las Vegas-based data center operator, majority owned by DigitalBridge Group, is also adding A16z co-founder Ben Horowitz to its board. BofA, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are working on the offering.

  • The UK’s IPO slump is squeezing private equity and venture capital exits as just seven PE-backed UK IPOs have priced over the past five years and the London Stock Exchange has seen more delistings than listings every year since 2022. PE firms are turning to take-privates and peer sales instead as UK companies listing at home fell to 46% in 2025 from 71% in 2019, with names like Waterstones and SumUp weighing delays to 2027.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club. New piece coming soon!

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Here’s the U.S. and Iran latest: Iran has denied any direct talks with the U.S. regarding opening the Strait of Hormuz, with messages being exchanged through intermediaries instead. President Trump has said “we are low keying it” with Iran, with less concern about Iran slow-rolling negotiations due to “its huge inflation and the fact they have no money".

  • Friday’s Jobs numbers were a miss, as July nonfarm payrolls fell by -23k, well below an estimate of a +83k gain. This was primarily due to a drop in 53k government jobs. Unemployment decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%, but labor force participation correspondingly fell to 61.4%, its lowest rate in 5+ years.

  • Deep Reads

    • Morgan Stanley put out an interesting piece on the Wisdom of Crowds in Markets across prediction markets, sports betting, and the stock market. The takeaway: betting markets are zero-sum before costs, while the stock market has positive expected returns over time.

    • Fast Company dived into how private equity’s playbook has negatively reshaped Hartford, Connecticut, from hospitals to the local newspaper. It’s an interesting read on how PE Investment can negatively impact treatment at hospitals.

  • Levered companies are ditching private credit for cheaper bank loans to cut borrowing costs. Firms with private credit debt are refinancing in the syndicated market roughly 3x more often than the reverse, per JPMorgan/KBRA data.

  • Situational Awareness is betting $400mm on a stealth chip startup, Source Foundry. Leopold Aschenbreenner is back in the game, but is sticking to private investments now after his public book blowup.

  • BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says last month’s payroll contraction reflected an AI-driven “productivity revolution”, not economic weakness. He argues the US is on track for 6% nominal GDP growth even as hiring stalls, and rate cuts remain possible this year.

  • Deirdre Bosa is leaving CNBC and going founder mode, launching her own livestreamed show that focuses on AI.

  • AI boot camps have exploded to ~1/3 of the professional certificate market, up from just 2% before ChatGPT launched in 2022. The share of employers expecting entry-level workers to be AI-competent has nearly tripled since last fall.

  • AI Fundraising in the U.S. dwarfs China: Despite reportedly strong performance from Chinese modeling, IPO and bond fundraising in the U.S. is dramatically higher than Chinese firms:

M&A Transactions💭 

The Pizza Hut China Business of Yum! Brands (NYS: YUM) was acquired by Yum China (NYS: YUMC) for $1.2B. Barclays and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Minto Apartment REIT, an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust, was acquired for CAD 3.307B by Crestpoint Real Estate Investments. EV/Revenue was 20.83x. Desjardins Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets advised on the sale.

The Mobile Tower Business of IHS Holding was acquired by Macquarie Asset Management for $952.0M. The transaction was supported by $289.0M of debt financing. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Beazer Homes USA (NYS: BZH), a construction company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.200496193B by Dream Finders Homes (NYS: DFH). EV/Revenue was 1.06x. Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Kennedy Lewis Investment Management, and Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Firmus Technologies, developer of AI-infrastructure systems, raised $2.0B of venture funding from Nvidia, Jane Street, and Coatue Management at a pre-money valuation of $8.5B.

PT PNM Investment Management and JBS USA have entered into an agreement to form a joint venture for $2.5B. The transaction values the company at $10.0B.

Restructuring Updates💭

Quality Fresca (Moe’s franchisee)

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: $10M–$50M liabilities; ~$16M secured debt

  • What happened: Filed Aug. 4; plans to close 16 of its 38 Moe’s locations while restructuring.

RNDC

  • Type: Chapter 11 / wind-down

  • Debt: $1B–$10B liabilities

  • What happened: Continued court-supervised asset sales and wind-down following its July 26 filing.

Storj Labs

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: $1M–$10M

  • What happened: Continued restructuring while operating its decentralized cloud-storage network.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Hughes Network Systems

  • Type: Potential Chapter 11

  • Debt: ~$1.5B near-term maturity

  • What happened: Restructuring talks continue as creditors prepare for a potential filing.

First Brands Group

  • Type: Chapter 11 / liquidation risk

  • Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure

  • What happened: Seeking approval of its restructuring plan; warned rejection could result in Chapter 7 liquidation.

QVC Group

  • Type: Post-Chapter 11 restructuring

  • Debt: ~$5B eliminated

  • What happened: Emerged from Chapter 11 after completing its balance-sheet restructuring.

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Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Finance hiring in Dallas is dramatically outpacing growth in other major finance hubs:

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Partner is NinjaTrader