The Week Ahead - August 2nd

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

It feels like we’re living in a continuous loop because President Trump has cancelled a planned attack on Iran after saying the “perimeters of a deal has been agreed to”. Futures are up, with the S&P up 0.42% and Nasdaq up 0.73%. This follows this positive geopolitical development, but it also is on the back on the recovery of the AI trade following the fallout of Situational Awareness.

Employment is the big focus for us this week, but we’re still jammed with earnings, so let’s get right into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott, Tyson foods, Clorox, Williams Companies, Diamondback Energy, On Semi, Loews, Whirlpool, Snap

• Tuesday: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck, Arista Networks, Amgen, McDonald’s, Gilead, Booking Holdings, Pfizer, BP, Spotify, Duke Energy, Marathon Petroleum, EOG Resources, Apollo, Electronic Arts, Rockwell, Automation, Devon Energy, Prudential, ADM, Kimberly-Clark, Pinterest, Toast, DuPont, Wayfair, Wynn Resorts, Match Group, Mattel

• Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Uber, Disney, CVS, Western Digital, Shopify, DoorDash, Block, AppLovin, Allstate, Occidental Petroleum, McKesson, Phillips 66, CF Industries, eBay, Expedia, Novo Nordisk, Kraft Heinz, Honeywell Aerospace, Duolingo, Dutch Bros, e.l.f. Beauty, SharkNinja, Zillow

• Thursday: Airbnb, Constellation Energy, ConocoPhillips, Datadog, DraftKings, Cloudflare, Monster Beverage, Keurig Dr Pepper, Republic Services, Restaurant Brands International, Roku, Texas Roadhouse, Twilio, Toyota, US Foods, Warner Bros. Discovery, Zoetis, Parker-Hannifin, Howmet Aerospace, Aflac, American International Group

• Friday: Berkshire Hathaway (expected on Saturday), Take-Two Interactive, Vistra, Under Armour, Wendy’s, Oklo, PPL, Fluor

  Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, IMS manufacturing (54.0%), construction spending (0.3%), Auto sales

• Tuesday: U.S. trade balance (-$73.0B), Factory orders (0.3%), job openings (7.5M)

• Wednesday: ADP employment (75,000), S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services (54.4%)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (200,000), U.S. productivity (0.7%), Wholesale inventories

• Friday: U.S. employment report (85,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages y/y, Consumer credit ($12.0B)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• ExxonMobile $XOM ( ▼ 0.98% ) revenue beat at $116.0B vs. $109.9B, while EPS missed at $3.52 vs. $3.60. Results marked the company’s strongest quarter in four years, driven by higher oil prices, record Permian production, record diesel output amid global fuel shortages, and a sharp recovery in refining profits. However, elevated refinery maintenance, production disruptions at its Qatar LNG operations, and volatile refining margins weighed on earnings. Despite the company’s strongest quarter in four years, shares fell as the slight EPS miss and high expectations following a 30% rally this year overshadowed results.

• Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 2.35% ) revenue beat at $70.1B vs. $62.7B, while EPS beat at $6.06 vs. $5.56. Results were driven by higher oil prices following the Iran war, record refinery fuel production and U.S. oil output, and a sharp rebound in refining profits as gasoline and diesel prices surged. The company also reduced net debt by roughly 30% and made faster-than-expected progress integrating its Hess acquisition. Mgmt highlighted new growth opportunities in Iraq, Venezuela, Argentina, and natural gas powered electricity projects for AI data centers.

• Colgate $CL ( ▼ 0.33% ) revenue came in at $5.36B, while EPS beat at $0.99. Growth was driven by strong demand across emerging markets and Hill’s Pet Nutrition, along with pricing, productivity gains, and higher margins that more than offset increased advertising spending. North America remained a weak spot as softer consumer demand, retailer inventory reductions, and tougher competition weighed on results, while organic sales growth of 2.4% missed expectations. Mgmt raised its FY gross margin and EPS outlook, but shares slipped as slowing underlying growth, North American weakness, and tariff concerns overshadowed the earnings beat.

• Ares Management $ARES ( ▲ 3.2% ) revenue beat at $1.43B, while EPS beat at $1.29. Results were driven by record $36B in quarterly fundraising, 17% AUM growth to $671B, strong demand for private credit, higher fee-related earnings, and increased investment activity across credit, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure. The quarter also featured record deployment, a growing deal pipeline, and continued expansion into higher growth strategies like digital infrastructure, reinforcing strong long term earnings momentum.

On The Move 📈 📉

• AstraZeneca is considering a deal to merge with Bristol Myers Squibb, according to the FT. The combined company would be worth $400 Billion. $AZN ( ▼ 0.99% )  $BMY ( ▲ 0.69% )  

• Roblox $RBLX ( ▼ 26.85% ) crashed after Q2 revenue missed and the company withdrew its full-year 2026 guidance. Wedbush cut to Neutral with PT to $40 from $65, citing weaker monetization in US/Canada and under-13 users.

• Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 8.78% ) fell after its Zeus phase 3 trial failed, with ziltivekimab showing no reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events versus placebo across 6,300 patients. Novo said the outcome won’t impact 2026 profit guidance but will trigger a noncash impairment charge in Q3.

• IES Holdings $IESC ( ▲ 30.27% ) rocketed after Q3 revenue and operating income jumped on data center demand, alongside a backlog surge to $4.5B (up 91% since end of fiscal 2025) and a two-for-one stock split announcement.

• Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 20.99% ) plunged after CEO Steve Huffman said Google search referrals were “choppy” during Q2 earnings. The comment overshadowed 60%+ revenue growth for eight straight quarters and 18% YoY DAU growth. $GOOG ( ▲ 6.88% ) popped on the same news.

• GoDaddy $GDDY ( ▼ 16.7% ) tumbled after narrowing 2026 revenue guidance to a tighter $40M range (from $80M), with Reuters citing slower Airo AI tool adoption and weaker customer acquisition as the underlying concerns.

• Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 15.32% ) jumped after AWS Q2 revenue grew 36.7% and backlog surged to $496B. Both AI and custom chip businesses each surpassed $25B ARR, and Amazon also raised FY capex to $220B from $200B.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Jersey Mike’s $JMKE ( ▲ 6.33% ) rebounded in early Friday trading, closing in on its $23 IPO price after Thursday’s 6% debut slump. CEO Charlie Morrison flagged a potential 15,000-store global footprint with UK and Ireland openings coming before year-end, and Melius launched coverage with a Buy rating and $30 price target on the sandwich maker.

• Apnimed Inc. $APMD ( ▲ 56.25% ) surged in its Nasdaq debut Friday after raising $192M in an upsized IPO priced at $16 (top of the $14-$16 marketed range). The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based sleep apnea drug developer sold 12M shares (up from the 10M originally marketed) and is developing Oxnimbi, an oral tablet awaiting FDA approval that could compete with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. BofA, Evercore, Cantor Fitzgerald, and LifeSci Capital led the offering.

• Westinghouse Electric Company filed confidentially for a US IPO. The nuclear reactor technology provider, jointly owned by Brookfield Renewable Partners and Cameco Corp., serves 57% of the world’s 417 nuclear reactors and was last valued at $8B when Cameco acquired its 49% stake in 2023. Timing, share count, and pricing have not yet been set.

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh floated cutting the number of policy meetings, presenting it as a discussion topic centered on moving to six meetings per year from the current eight. The shift would fit Warsh’s goal of drawing less market attention to the Fed, following his introduction of shorter FOMC statements.

• Sony’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” opened to $927M globally, the second-biggest debut, with its $355M domestic opening, just shy of “Avengers: Endgame”’s record of $357M. The film pulled in $572M internationally, earned a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score, and a CinemaScore “A”, all without IMAX access.

• Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) is now charging up to $100k a month for “Truth API,” giving trading firms early access to feeds, including President Trump’s market-moving posts. Former SEC official Renée Jones argues the service violates insider trading law and the 2012 Stock Act, and Democratic Senators have asked the SEC to investigate.

• FIFA scrapped its plan to sell stakes in the World Cup to private equity investors after major regional soccer bodies revolted. The proposed FIFA Forward Enterprise would have consolidated commercial and event operations into a new $20B subsidiary, offering a $20M one-time payment to each FIFA member federation.

• SpaceX short interest has surged to 219.3M (34% of the public float) as of July 29, up from just 23.3M on June 16. The buildup comes ahead of two major milestones next week: first earnings August 4 and the release of up to 911.5M shares August 6.

• Private credit defaults hit a record 6% in Q2, up from the prior high of 5.7%, according to Fitch’s tracking of 1,300 US private debt borrowers. Maturity extensions under stress replaced payment-in-kind and interest deferrals as the leading driver, appearing in more than half of the quarter’s 32 default events. Industrials and manufacturing led with a 10.4% default rate (up from 5.9%), healthcare rose to 9.4%, and software stayed the lowest at 1.2%.

• Paramount is pushing for a November antitrust trial over its $110Bn Warner Bros Discovery merger, while states are pushing for an April 2027 trial. The dispute follows the cancellation of an August 3 injunction hearing in favor of trial, with Paramount agreeing to delay closing until June 2027.

• The Bundesliga is in talks over a €1Bn financing deal with Apollo Sports Capital, structured as a 20-year loan against future domestic broadcasting revenue. The proposal is designed to sidestep Germany’s 50+1 fan-ownership rule, with proceeds dedicated to overseas club tours and marketing.

• Jefferies is reviewing $300M in remaining exposure to Radiant World at Point Bonita Capital fund, after payments from the iron ore trader slowed and paperwork discrepancies emerged. This echoes the fund’s earlier blowup over collapsing auto supplier First Brands, which caused the fund size to shrink from $3Bn and 15 employees to just 5 employees.

• Cable One is looking to raise $1Bn to buyout the remaining 55% of Mega Broadband, after private equity firm GTCR triggered a put option forcing the purchase. However, a recent selloff in Cable One’s existing debt, with some loans yielding near 18%, has made new lenders wary, with creditors splitting into two camps hiring separate law firms.

• Bridgepoint Group has taken control of Anthesis Group from private equity sponsor Carlyle, in a debt for equity transaction where the lender has taken the keys.

August 2nd’s Wall Street Rollup Most Valuable Player 👑 

Sometimes, things matter more than business. Life, health, love. Being able to marry the love of your life even when things aren’t going well.

That’s why we congratulate the newly weds, Leopold Aschenbrenner and Avital Balwit, and crown them this edition’s WSR MVPs*.

Leopold is known for the rise and fall of his fund Situational Awareness, while Balwit is Chief of Staff to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic.

Email us to nominate August 5th’s WSR MVP.

M&A Transactions💭 

Skywater Technology, a U.S.-based, independent, pure-play semiconductor foundry, was acquired for $1.952B by IonQ (NYS: IONQ). EV/EBITDA was 12.73x and EV/Revenue was 3.6x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

SK Siltron, manufacturer of silicon wafers, was acquired for KRW 2.3T by Doosan (KRX: 000150).

Orla Mining, a mineral exploration company, was acquired for CAD 5.099B by Equinox Gold (TSE: EQX). EV/EBITDA was 5.41x and EV/Revenue was 2.79x. Fort Capital Partners and Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets advised on the sale.

Continental Candy Industry, manufacturer of private-label confectionery products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 207.0M by Orkla Snacks. EV/Revenue was 1.84x.

BG Cyprus, operator of a corporate vehicle, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $720.0M by MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas (BUD: MOL).

Argos, operator of a catalogue retail chain, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 120.0M by True., Mr. Richard Pennycook, Mr. Trevor Strain, and Mr. Matthew Truman. Deferred payments of GBP 50.0M is expected over the following three years. Evercore Group and UBS Group advised on the sale.

AiDash, developer of a sustainable platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $350.0M by Schneider Electric (PAR: SU).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Core Automation, developer of an automated AI lab, raised $432.13M of venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $3.57B.

Antora Energy, developer of modular thermal batteries, raised $550.0M of Series C venture funding led by G2 Venture Partners and Eclipse Capital.

Pex, developer of a cloud-based spending management platform, raised $169.69M of Series C1 venture funding through a combination of debt and equity led by Bluff Point Associates at a pre-money valuation of $92.31M.

Beijing Moon’s Dark Side Technology, developer of frontier AI models, raised $3.5B of Series F venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $31.5B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 56% chance of a 25bps rate hike in September

Restructuring Updates💭

 Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC)

• Type: Chapter 11 (wind-down)

• Debt: Assets: $500M–$1B; Liabilities: $1B–$10B. The 30 largest unsecured claims exceed $300M, with more than 100,000 creditors.

• What happened: RNDC filed Chapter 11 on July 26 to complete the sale of its remaining distribution markets and conduct an orderly wind-down after divesting much of its footprint over the past year. The company obtained DIP financing to support the process.

• Scale signal: One of the largest Chapter 11 filings of 2026 by creditor count, formerly the second-largest wine and spirits distributor in the U.S. with nationwide operations.

Storj Labs

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Assets and liabilities: each estimated between $1M and $10M.

• What happened: Storj Labs voluntarily filed Chapter 11 on July 26 to eliminate legacy liabilities while continuing normal operations. The company stated it intends to preserve its decentralized cloud-storage network and ultimately provide token holders an opportunity to participate in the reorganized company, subject to court approval.

• Scale signal: One of the highest-profile crypto infrastructure bankruptcies of 2026, operating a global decentralized cloud storage network.

CashCall, Inc.

• Type: Chapter 11

• Debt: Approximately $402M of adverse court judgments, plus roughly $50M of additional litigation, trade debt, and professional fee obligations.

• What happened: CashCall filed Chapter 11 after multiple adverse legal judgments related to consumer lending practices. The company's lending operations had already ceased prior to the filing, and the bankruptcy is intended to address litigation liabilities.

• Scale signal: One of the largest consumer finance bankruptcies of the year, driven primarily by regulatory and litigation exposure.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Hughes Network Systems (EchoStar)

• Type: Imminent Chapter 11 / restructuring

• Debt: Approximately $1.5B maturity due August 1, 2026.

• What happened: Hughes is preparing to file Chapter 11 within days after failing to secure refinancing ahead of its debt maturity. The company has retained White & Case and FTI Consulting, while bondholders have also hired restructuring advisers.

• Scale signal: Global satellite broadband provider and one of EchoStar's largest operating subsidiaries, making this one of the most significant pending telecom restructurings of 2026.

EchoStar Corporation

• Type: Parent-company restructuring watch

• Debt: Multi-billion-dollar capital structure spanning satellite television, wireless, broadband, and spectrum assets.

• What happened: Following the Dish DBS filing and Hughes' expected Chapter 11, investors are increasingly focused on whether additional restructuring actions will be required at the parent company as liquidity pressure builds across the EchoStar ecosystem.

• Scale signal: One of the largest ongoing telecommunications restructurings in North America.

Leslie's, Inc.

• Type: Potential restructuring / Chapter 11 watch

• Debt: Not publicly disclosed.

• What happened: Following reports that the company is evaluating restructuring alternatives, Leslie's continues to face pressure from declining sales, store closures, and a weakened liquidity position. No bankruptcy filing has been announced, but it remains one of the most closely watched retail distress situations.

• Scale signal: The largest specialty pool supplies retailer in the U.S., operating hundreds of stores nationwide.

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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Polymarket