The Week Ahead - August 16th

Jane Street's Big L. Stripe is closing in on OpenRouter.

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HY Harry
August 16, 2026

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Stocks were off a bit Friday, but the S&P has advanced 6.43% since the July 29th lows. One of the reasons for Friday’s weakness was preliminary consumer sentiment fell to 51 from 55.2 in July. Earnings are nearly done, but we have some of the big retailers like Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target coming up. Futures are up slightly.

The other big news this week? We’re dropping our annual Investment Banking Compensation Report - if you want to access it, make sure you join Buyside Hub.

Let’s get into it. Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Monday: Fabrinet, H World Group, XP Inc., Grifols, Bally’s

  • Tuesday: Home Depot, BHP, Keysight Technologies, Baidu, Amer Sports, Klarna, Toll Brothers, La-Z-Boy

  • Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Target, Viking Holdings, Estée Lauder, Nordson, Dycom Industries, BILL Holdings, Webull, Coty, Wolfspeed

  • Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba, Deere & Company, NetEase, Aegon, Advance Auto Parts, Ross Stores, Flowers Foods

  • Friday: BJ’s Wholesale Club, KE Holdings, The Buckle

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (12), NAHB Housing Market Index (33)

  • Tuesday: Housing Starts (1.3M), Import Prices (0.1%), Industrial Production M/M (0.4%), Capacity Utilization (74.6%), Pending home Sales Idx M/M (0%)

  • Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

  • Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (25), Weekly Jobless Claims (205K), Leading Indicators (0%)

  • Friday: U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI (54.3), US Flash Services PMI (53.8)

Today’s Jobs:

  1. Sixth Street is hiring a Real Estate Associate (Dallas)

  2. Blackstone is hiring a Compensation Management VP (New York)

  3. Bain Capital is hiring a 2027 Credit Analyst (Boston)

  4. Ares is hiring a VP, Credit Secondaries (London)

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Anthropic disclosed Q2 revenue of $11.5B+, up 14x from $787M a year ago, as it prepares for a potential fall mega-IPO. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are working on the offering.

  • RedotPay delayed its ~$1B US IPO to next year or later as the stablecoin payments company seeks regulatory approvals and faces a $470M lawsuit from Binance affiliates alleging its founders diverted customers to a competing product. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies are working on the offering.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • Jane Street took a $15Bn loss tied to its stake in Situational Awareness and broader tech losses, marking the trading firm’s first negative month since 2016. Jane Street has still generated over $40Bn in trading revenue YTD but has pulled back on risk-taking and closed positions in Asian equities and AI-exposed semiconductor stocks.

  • In Other 13-F News:

    • Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F showed it added $17B to Alphabet, making it its third-largest equity holding. Berkshire also added to Delta, Lennar, and Macy’s, while reducing stakes in Capital One, Kroger, and Nucor.

    • David Tepper’s Appaloosa trimmed Micron stake $MU ( ▲ 2.3% ) in Q2, completely exited SanDisk and Corning, and added to Mag7 names.

    • Druckenmiller sold Google and Fox, while adding to his largest position, Taiwan Semi.

    • Bill Ackman and Pershing continued adding to Uber, reduced Amazon, and bought names like Netflix, Visa, and Mastercard.

  • Apollo published its 2026 Midyear Credit Outlook. The firm sees credit fundamentals as resilient but the margin for error is narrowing as AI creates a divide across credit markets and turns the buildout into a market-capacity problem. Apollo expects private IG credit to be essential to closing the AI funding gap, and AI factor risk to redefine portfolio diversification.

  • Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt says private credit stress is a “healthy adjustment” after too-loose underwriting, not a systematic problem. Flatt sees the concerns concentrated in PE-backed borrowers and software, while Brookfield focuses on hard-asset lending in real estate and infrastructure.

  • ION Group secured a 12-month extension on a UBS credit line used to fund its Prelios acquisition, pushing maturity to July 2027 as investor unease grows over the software firm’s debt load.

    • The company has also missed rent payments on offices in three countries: an eviction notice in Sydney, weeks of denied access in Munich, and a since-withdrawn lawsuit in Connecticut. The missed payments come as scrutiny mounts over Ion’s $10Bn debt load.

  • Palmer Square, one of the largest founder-owned CLO management platforms still on the market, is exploring a sale. The firm, owned by Christopher and Angie Long, has $13Bn in US AUM and €4.5bn in European AUM within the reinvestment period.

  • Liberty Puerto Rico hit with amended lawsuits from Arini Capital Management and GoldenTree Asset Management, alleging the cable company continued “unlawful transactions,” including a $140MM revolving facility and $200M term loan, using assets that were already shifted beyond creditors’ reach in a September liability management exercise.

  • Partners Group $PTRS ( ▲ 2.97% ) has become the worst-performing stock in MSCI’s European financials index this year, down 24.8% partly after the firm capped withdrawals from two of its evergreen private equity funds as investor redemption requests reached 6%.

  • Volatility Shares Trust filed to launch 32 ETFs for each NFL team, tracking on-ice performance via cash-settled futures on team-specific “Sports Performance Indexes”. These vehicles track wins and losses, as opposed to tying to the financial performance of the teams.

  • Telesat took out a $120MM term loan to support its declining legacy satellite business, with shares $TSAT ( ▼ 3.76% ) falling after the company reported a 25% revenue decline and a $12.7MM operating loss for the quarter. Telesat owes $2.1Bn across four debt tranches maturing over the next 14 months, warning that existing cash flows don’t cover debt obligations.

  • HPS published a report on AI’s impact on software lending. The firm sees a widening EV/EBITDA gap between vertical and horizontal software multiples. Additionally, private credit is shifting from sponsor-backed buyouts to AI infrastructure financing.

  • The CFTC is reviewing “mention markets” on prediction platforms, where traders bet on specific words appearing in speeches or earnings calls.

  • Stripe will reportedly buy AI gateway startup OpenRouter for over $7B+. The startup allows companies to switch between AI models fluidly.

  • AI enthusiasm is pushing stocks to record highs, but rising Treasury yields could derail the rally. Big Tech is projected to spend $740B on AI infrastructure in 2026 and $1T in 2027, funded increasingly by debt as the 30-year Treasury sits near its highest yield since 2007.

M&A Transactions💭 

Qube Holdings, has three main divisions: operating, property, and Patrick, was acquired for AUD 11.7B by Macquarie Asset Management, UniSuper Superannuation Fund, and Pontegadea Inversiones. UBS Group advised on the sale.

Pier House Resort & Spa, operator of a resort and Caribbean spa company, was acquired for $190.0M by Sixth Street Partners and Riller Capital.

Filtration Group, manufacturer of air, gas, and process filtration products, was acquired for $9.25B by Park-Hannifin (NYS: PH). Lincoln International advised on the sale.

Arize, developer of an observability platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $915.0M by Dynatrace (NYS: DT). Qatalyst Partners advised on the sale.

Accelerant Holdings (NYS: ARX), operates as a data-driven risk exchange, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.4B by Thoma Bravo. EV/Revenue was 3.85x. Houlihan Lokey and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Polaris DS, provider of bitcoin mining services, was acquired for $444.0M by Core Scientific (NAS: CORZ).

Boralex, a power producer whose core business is dedicated to the development and operation of renewable energy, was acquired for CAD 9.0B by La Caisse and Brookfield Asset Management. EV/EBITDA was 18.43x and EV/Revenue was 9.87x. RBC Capital Markets and National Bank Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Databricks, developer of a data analytics platform, raised $5.0B of venture funding led by Coatue Management, MGX, Blackstone, and Sixth Street Partners at a pre-money valuation of $185.0B.

AIGC micro, developer of high-efficiency core chips for intelligent terminals, raised over CNY 2.0B of Series B venture funding from China structural Reform Fund, Shanghai Guoxin Investment, and Youdao.

Restructuring Updates💭

Signal National / 777 Partners

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: >$2.7B funded debt

  • What happened: Signal National, 777 Partners and 21 affiliates filed Aug. 9, pursuing a court-supervised wind-down through asset sales and a liquidating trust.

Central Builders Group

  • Type: Chapter 11, Subchapter V

  • Debt: Not disclosed

  • What happened: Florida construction company filed Aug. 13 and will pursue a small-business reorganization.

Emil’s Produce Corp.

  • Type: Chapter 11

  • Debt: $1.4M liabilities

  • What happened: Brooklyn produce distributor filed Aug. 12 with just ~$176K of assets; most unsecured claims are financial rather than trade debt.

Restructuring Rumors💭 

Braskem

  • Type: Potential out-of-court restructuring / possible Chapter 11 for Mexican subsidiary

  • Debt: >$10B

  • What happened: Braskem is reportedly considering filing an extrajudicial restructuring as soon as August. Its ~$2B Mexican debt could separately involve a U.S. Chapter 11 process.

Trinseo

  • Type: Chapter 11 plan at risk

  • Debt: $948M disputed intercompany claim; $262M opposing creditor position

  • What happened: CastleKnight is challenging Trinseo’s restructuring plan, arguing a $948M intercompany loan was improperly used to manufacture creditor support. Trinseo is trying to disqualify CastleKnight’s votes.

YSA Investments 1

  • Type: Chapter 11 / contested restructuring

  • Debt: Up to ~$921M borrower claim

  • What happened: The court transferred YSA’s bankruptcy from Delaware to Oklahoma to consolidate a sprawling dispute involving high-interest loans, foreclosures and related debtor cases.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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