October 26th - The Week Ahead

In partnership with

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! The party is going strong - futures are up, with the S&P up 0.75% and Nasdaq up 0.9% on the back of positive US & China trade framework news.

We’ve got a jam-packed week ahead of us. We’ve swamped with earnings that are expected to be generally quite positive, and we’ve got a rate cut on tap! The Fed meets on Wednesday this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bps from the current range of 4%-4.25%.

The Karpathy analysis on how shitty a lot of AI is today is fading into the background for now, as rate cuts, solid earnings, robust AI spend, positive trade news, and limited inflationary pressures (so far) are driving a favorable setup for equities at the moment.

Btw, we now have a YouTube page converting our stories in YouTube Shorts content - check it out!

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Brown & Brown, Waste Management, Keurig Dr Pepper, Whirlpool

• Tuesday: Visa, UnitedHealth, Booking Holdings, UPS, PayPal, Sherwin-Williams, Mondelez, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, D.R. Horton, EA, SoFi, Enphase, Royal Caribbean, American Tower, Labcorp Holdings, Zebra Technologies

• Wednesday: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Caterpillar, Boeing, ServiceNow, Fiserv, Verizon, Phillips 66, CVS, Starbucks, Prudential, GE HealthCare, Chipotle, Equinix, Kraft Heinz

• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck & Company, Merck & Co., S&P Global, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Cigna Group, Gilead, Comcast, Altria, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, Roblox, Cloudflare

• Friday: Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Linde, Aon plc, Colgate-Palmolive, OneMain, Cboe Global Markets, LyondellBasell Industries,T. Rowe Price Group, Charter Communications

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: None

• Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index 20 cities, Consumer confidence (94.0)

• Wednesday: Pending home sales (1.0%), FOMC interest-rate decision, Fed Chair Powell press conference

• Thursday: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks

• Friday: Chicago Business Barometer PMI (42.0) , Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan welcoming remarks

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

T-Mobile $TMUS ( ▼ 2.26% ) Revenue and EPS both beat expectations, up 4% y/y on strong postpaid demand with over 1M new phone adds. Management raised FY25 guidance for 7.2–7.4M postpaid net adds and up to $33.9B in core EBITDA, though concerns over intensifying wireless competition and margin pressure weighed on shares.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.46% ) Top and bottom line beat on revenue and EPS, marking a return to profit after six quarters of losses. AI and PC demand drove growth, while foundry losses of $2.3B and soft external traction remain headwinds. Management guided Q4 EPS of $0.08 on $12.8–$13.8B in revenue.

Blackstone $BX ( ▼ 1.83% ) Both revenue (though up 12%) and EPS missed expectations, reflecting slower realizations and softer investment income. AUM climbed 12% and fee-related earnings jumped 26%. Management defended private credit markets, emphasizing recent defaults were bank-led rather than systemic, and reaffirmed strong fundraising momentum with $54B raised in Q3. President Jonathan Gray admitted that excess Private Credit returns may have topped out given rates are coming down

Union Pacific $UNP ( ▼ 0.56% ) Revenue rose 2.5% y/y, in line with expectations, while EPS of $3.08 beat on stronger coal shipments and disciplined cost control. Management said it will file merger papers with Norfolk Southern by late November to form the first coast to coast U.S. rail network, and reaffirmed a steady FY outlook.

Procter and Gamble $PG ( ▼ 1.72% ) Revenue of $22.39B and EPS of $1.99 beat expectations, driven by strength in beauty and grooming. Volume was flat as inflation weary consumers traded down or stretched purchases, creating a “K-shaped” demand pattern. Management reaffirmed FY sales and EPS outlook, noting easing tariff costs and continued brand investment to support pricing power.

General Dynamics $GD ( ▼ 0.92% ) A top and bottom line beat on revenue ($12.91B) and EPS ($3.88). Growth was broad based across all four segments, led by 30% aerospace gains and strong marine demand. Backlog reached a record $168B with a 1.5x book-to-bill, underscoring multi-year visibility, as management highlighted disciplined execution and robust defense orders.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▲ 2.05% ) Revenue of $13.69B and EPS of -$0.17 beat, driven by firmer pricing and tighter cost control. Management raised FY25 EPS guidance to $0.65–$0.95 on stronger premium demand and capacity discipline.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Don’t get SaaD. Get Rippling.

Disconnected software creates what we call SaaD, or Software as a Disservice: wasted time, duplicate work, and stalled momentum. From onboarding checklists to reconciling expenses, SaaD slows every team down.

Rippling is the cure. With one system of record, you can update employee data once,and it syncs everywhere: payroll, benefits, expenses, devices, and apps.

Leaders gain real-time visibility. Teams regain lost hours. Employees get the seamless experience they deserve .

That’s why companies like Barry’s and Forterra turned to Rippling – to replace sprawl with speed and clarity.

It’s time to stop paying for inefficiency.

Don’t get SaaD. Get Rippling.

Stop SaaD in its tracks

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Inflation cools to 3.0% in September, below forecasts: The CPI rose 0.3% last month and 3.0% YoY, both 0.1% under expectations. Core inflation matched at 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually, signaling steady disinflation ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Shelter costs grew just 0.2%, while energy and food prices saw modest increases. The softer data reinforces expectations for another quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday as the Fed prioritizes slowing job growth over lingering price pressure

• Tariffs latest with China: The threat of 100% tariffs on China is now off the table after a productive meeting with top Chinese trade officials. Although Trump and Xi won’t meet until this Thursday, the framework of a deal is already in place. China is expected to make “substantial” soybean purchases and to delay their rare-earth export controls “for a year while they reexamine it,” addressing two main objectives for the U.S.

  • In addition, anti-fentanyl measures will be enacted, and the U.S. may potentially lift or reduce a 20% tariff that it had imposed to pressure China to stop the flow of the drug. Finalizing the sale of TikTok and enlisting China’s help in resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine are also on Trump’s agenda for Thursday

  • China’s negotiation strategy has been much different in Trump’s second term, with Xi now opting to project strength and unpredictability, rather than making so many concessions. Xi has consistently pressured Trump, using his leverage from rare-earth and other areas, to get the best possible deal for China

• Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada over Reagan trade ad: The White House announced a tariff hike on Canadian imports, accusing Ontario of airing a “fraudulent” TV ad featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The ad, which ran during the World Series, omitted context from Reagan’s 1987 speech. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the ad aimed to spark debate on tariffs and would pause on Monday to allow trade talks to resume. Canada’s goods already face average U.S. tariffs of 35%, with higher rates on steel and aluminum. The move comes ahead of a Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s tariff powers on November 5th

• NBA stars arrested in gambling probes: Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups and Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier were arrested in separate federal gambling investigations in Brooklyn. Prosecutors say Billups took part in a Mafia-backed poker scheme using high-tech cheating devices, while Rozier allegedly leaked inside information about his performance to aid betting

• Government shutdown latest: It is now day 26, and little progress has been made towards reopening the government. Travel delays are continuing to rise, SNAP funding is set to run dry for millions of Americans, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers continue to go without pay as the shutdown continues. The senate, which has failed to pass a funding bill 12 times, is set to meet again Monday afternoon

• EquipmentShare bonds drop amid fraud allegations by ousted board member: The Missouri-based construction equipment firm saw its bonds trade down 6 points after former board member Neil Chheda sued the company, alleging “self-interested” deals benefiting the founding Schlacks family and undisclosed vendor kickbacks. EquipmentShare, backed by Romulus Capital, has $2.1B in HY debt and had been eyeing an IPO

• GS eyes Petco debt refinancing: Goldman is exploring a $1.6B refinancing for Petco as the retailer’s finances improve. The proposed package includes bonds yielding 8–9% and a term loan about 4.25 points over benchmark rates. Petco’s debt has rallied to near par amid stronger earnings, with Moody’s upgrading its outlook to stable last week

• Baristas to vote on strike authorization: Starbucks Workers United will begin voting Friday on whether to authorize a nationwide strike as contract talks with the company remain stalled. The union, representing 12K baristas across 650 stores, is demanding better pay, improved staffing, and resolution of unfair labor charges. Starbucks said the union represents only 4% of workers and “walked away from the bargaining table,” while reaffirming its $500M investment to improve staffing and service

• Target cuts 1,800 corporate jobs as growth stalls: $TGT ( ▼ 3.08% ) will lay off about 8% of its corporate workforce in its biggest downsizing in a decade, as it struggles with falling sales and prepares for a leadership transition. Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke said the cuts aim to speed up decision-making after years of “too many layers.” The retailer’s stock has dropped 65% since 2021

• Endowments are raking it in as new tax looms: Yale’s endowment rose to $44.1B and Princeton’s to $36.4B after both returned 11% for the year ending June, in line with other Ivies amid strong markets. The gains came as Congress raised the endowment tax on wealthy universities from 1.4% to 8%, which could cost schools like Harvard and Yale up to $300M annually. Ivy League returns trailed public peers like Wisconsin (16.2%) and Michigan (15.5%) which rely more on equities

• Binance founder pardoned: President Trump granted a full pardon to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, who pleaded guilty in 2023 to money-laundering violations as part of Binance’s $4.3B settlement with the DOJ. The move follows reports that Trump’s crypto venture partnered with a Binance-linked platform

Buyside Hub is the tool kit every Wall Streeter needs

Buyside Hub was created to give Bankers and Buyside professionals the toolkit they need to evaluate compensation, understand firm culture and potential interview questions, and find new roles.

Actionable Compensation Data

The Average American Buyside Hub user makes $340k+/year. From Analyst to MD & PM, Buyside Hub has compensation analytics across Private Equity, Private Credit, Hedge Funds, Investment Banking, Asset Management, CorpDev, and Consulting.

Buyside Hub has shipped a teaser Private Equity Compensation Report and an Investment Banking Compensation Report.

Hundreds of Buyside and Banking Jobs

Buyside Hub automatically adds the strongest jobs in Finance to its proprietary job board. From NYC, to across the United States, to London and Singapore, Buyside Hub has global coverage.

M&A Transactions💭 

Avidity Biosciences, a biotech company focused on developing drugs to treat forms of muscular dystrophy, was acquired for $12B by Novartis (NYS: NVS).

ImCheck Therapeutics, developer of immuno-modulatory antibodies, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Ipsen (PAR: IPN) for EUR 1.0B.

Potbelly Sandwick Works, owns and franchises hundreds of limited-service restaurants, was acquired for $566.0M by RaceTrac. EV/EBITDA was 22.64x and EV/Revenue was 1.21x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

MidWestOne Financial Group, a bank holding company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $864.0M Nicolet Bankshares (NYS: NIC). EV/Net Income was 14.78x and EV/Revenue was 3.62x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Hadron Energy, developer of a micro modular nuclear reactor, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.2B by GigCapital7 (NAS: GIG) through a reverse merger. The company will receive a contingent payout of 100 million shares of GIG stock and access to approximately $200.0M in cash from GIG trust account after the payment of transaction expenses and assuming no redemptions by GIG’s public shareholders. Cohen & Company Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Medsystems, distributor of medical systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for BRL 18.27B by Classys (KRX: 214150).

Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals, developer of a mental health science-focused biotechnology platform, was acquired for $1.2B by AbbVie (NYS: ABBV).

Avadel Pharmaceuticals (NAS: AVDL), a specialty pharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Alkermes (NAS: ALKS) for $1.938B. EV/EBITDA was 246.47x and EV/Revenue was 8.77x. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

CR Fitness Holdings, operator of a franchise of Crunch Fitness gyms, received $350.0M of development capital from Sixth Street Partners.

Electra Therapeutics, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $183.0M of Series C venture funding led by Nextech Invest and EQT Life Sciences.

Redwood Materials, operator of a battery-materials platform, raised $350.0M of Series E venture funding led by Eclipse Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $5.65B.

Neolix Technologies, manufacturer of unmanned logistics vehicles, raised $600.0M of venture funding from Stone Venture.

LiblibAI, provider of AI based painting platform, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding from CMC Capital Partners, Source Code Capital, and Future Capital Discovery Fund.

Crusoe, operator of AI-optimized cloud infrastructure, raised $1.4B of Series E venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners and Mubadala Capital at a pre-money valuation of $8.6B.

Chaingaurd, developer of a supply chain security software, raised $356.0M of Series D venture funding led by IVP and Kleiner Perkins at a pre-money valuation of $3.14B.

Asuene, developer of a carbon management platform, raised JPY 11.5B of Series C2 venture funding led by SBI Investment, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, and SPARX Group Company.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 82% chance of 75bps of rate cuts this year.

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

A look into how the U.S. dwarves the rest of the world with Data Center bandwidth

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

Housekeeping Items:

Upgrade to the WSR Investing Club: Wall Street Rollup readers get 40% off for their first 12 months. Receive high-conviction stock research & analysis to help you cut through the noise.

Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page deck for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks.

Our Weekly Poll:

Join our Referral Program and Gain WSR Investing Club Access ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.