November 9th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

S&P and Nasdaq futures are roaring higher as it looks like we’re nearing closer to the Government finally reopening again. Last week, we saw the AI trade fade after OpenAI backstop talks last week drove some worries about the AI ecosystem. Notably, Nvidia, is down 9% from its all time-highs, somewhat of a quick selloff from its initial ascent up to a $5 Trillion market capitalization. Meta and Microsoft were also Mag 7 laggards last week.

A key theme we’ve been talking about is how strong earnings have been, with earnings growing at its fastest pace in five years. Median earnings growth in the Russell 3000 index hit 11% in 3Q in particular. Despite a lot of negative headlines, some K-Shape economy related noise, and the recent pullback, we remain pretty constructive over the short-term.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: monday.com, Occidental Petroleum, Pagaya Tech, BigBear.ai, AST SpaceMobile, Rigetti, CoreWeave

• Tuesday: SEA, Beyond Meat, Nebius

• Wednesday: Cisco, GlobalFoundries, Circle, On Holding AG

• Thursday: Disney, Applied Materials, JD.com, StubHub

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: None scheduled

• Tuesday: Veterans Day holiday (bond market closed), NFIB optimism index

• Wednesday: New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Fed governor Chris Waller speaks, Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks

• Thursday: Monthly U.S. federal budget, New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks

• Friday: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks

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Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Airbnb $ABNB ( ▲ 0.29% ) saw growth in underpenetrated international markets, where nights booked grew at double the rate of core markets, showing that global travel remains strong. The company slightly beat revenue expectations and is investing in AI, product upgrades and listing improvements as it works to expand beyond traditional accommodations.

WBD $WBD ( ▲ 1.12% ) Reported a $148M loss as weak streaming growth and ongoing cable declines offset a strong box office hits like Superman and The Conjuring couldn’t offset steep declines in its legacy cable business. The company is weighing a potential sale or split, with Paramount, Netflix, and Comcast among the companies circling.

Vistra $VST ( ▲ 3.46% ) Missed revenue expectations on derivative swings and a plant outage, but strong cash flow and rising power prices underlined resilient operations. Management doubled down with a $1B buyback and upbeat 2026 guidance as new gas assets and nuclear contracts come online.

Draftkings $DKNG ( ▲ 8.65% ) Trimmed its outlook after NFL results weighed on revenue, but it’s expanding into sports prediction markets in untapped states. Management stayed upbeat, leaning on new ESPN and NBCUniversal deals, fast iGaming growth, and a $2B buyback to signal confidence in the platform’s long-term potential.

Constellation Energy $CEG ( ▲ 2.02% ) Constellation’s profit narrowly missed expectations on higher costs, but steady nuclear output and new AI power deals with Meta and Microsoft underscored resilient demand. The company narrowed guidance as it prepares to close its $26.6B Calpine acquisition, expanding its natural gas and geothermal generation footprint.

Wendys $WEN ( ▲ 1.59% ) Wendy’s quarterly sales slipped as U.S. traffic softened, but international growth and cost discipline helped offset pressure from weaker domestic demand. The chain reiterated its annual outlook, signaling confidence as it leans on overseas expansion and new restaurant openings to sustain momentum.

DoorDash $DASH ( ▲ 4.0% ) DoorDash fell after missing earnings and signaling it’ll spend “several hundred million” more next year on new tech and global expansion. The Deliveroo acquisition and autonomous delivery rollout show its push to scale, but investors pushed back at the company’s defense that growth “takes investment, not miracles.”

KKR $KKR ( ▲ 1.69% ) Topped earning estimates as AUM jumped 16% to $723B and fundraising hit near record levels. Strong credit and insurance gains offset slower monetizations, underscoring KKR’s diversified model and steady long term growth.

WSR Investing Club Update

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Tariff Dividends are coming: President Trump announced Americans (unless you’re a high earner) will receive $2,000 tariff dividends. However, it looked like Treasury Secretary Bessent immediately started walking back where the money was coming from, saying the $2,000 could come in various forms, including with tax decreases, no tax on tips or overtime, no tax on social security, or deductibility on auto loans

• 50-year mortgages??!? The Trump Administration is working on 50-year mortgages in order to make housing more affordable - however this got immediate pushback on Saturday with comments around this plan adding to the total debt load & turning homeowners into life-long renters

• Government shutdown latest: It sounds like we’re getting closer to a re-opening, as the Senate reconvened today to evaluate reopening the government. Several democrats in the Senate seemed willing to reopen the government and provide a stop-gap measure to keep the government open until January - the deal wouldn’t include extending enhanced Obamacare subsidies, but it would guarantee a vote on it in the Senate at a later date

  • Flight delays are continuing, with 2,200 flights delayed on Sunday. Transportation Secretary Duffy told CNN he believes air travel could be “reduced to a trickle” ahead of Thanksgiving. FAA rules are forcing flight cuts by cutting flights by 4% this weekend, 6% by Nov 11, 8% by Nov 13, and up to 10% by Nov 14.

  • SNAP funding updates: The Trump administration has told states to “immediately undo” any action taken to fund November food-aid benefits, and has threatened financial penalties for those that don’t comply. This comes after the administration appealed a federal judge’s ruling to fully fund November food benefits using emergency funds

• Consumer sentiment nears record low amid shutdown worries: The University of Michigan’s index fell to 50.3 in November, its second-lowest level since 1978, as the prolonged government shutdown weighed heavily on outlooks

• Shutdown halts jobs report, alt data shows weak but stable labor market: With the BLS unable to release October payrolls, economists estimate a 60,000 job loss and unemployment rising to 4.5%. Alternative indicators from ADP, ISM, and Bank of America point to cooling hiring and small-business softness but no major layoffs

• McKinsey’s State of AI Report found the following: Most companies are still testing or piloting AI, with nearly two-thirds not yet scaling it across the organization. While interest in AI is strong and many report use-case-level gains in cost savings and innovation, only 39% see a meaningful boost to overall EBIT. Views on AI’s impact on jobs are mixed as 32% expect workforce reductions, 43% foresee no change, and 13% expect hiring growth. Overall, it shows that AI is broadly still in the experimentation and piloting phase for most large organizations

• Brad Gerstner says market pullback is healthy, not a tech bubble: After a months-long surge and a 5% Nasdaq drop this week, Gerstner called the selloff a needed “digestion” phase and said AI supercycles tend to exceed expectations despite interim corrections.

  • Altimeter trimmed exposure after a big run, including a large Nvidia position ahead of its Nov 19 report; he sees a softer consumer and expects a year-end breather before Q4 earnings

• Elon expects desk jobs to be replaced by AI at a rapid pace, calling AI a supersonic tsunami, saying any work that involves being on a computer will be taken over by AI

• Anti-AI politicians warn of 10%-20% unemployment: Senators Josh Hawley (R) and Mark Warner (D) introduced the AI-Related Job Impacts Clarity Act which requires companies to report AI-related job impacts. Hawley warned "Artificial intelligence is already replacing American workers, and experts project AI could drive unemployment up to 10 to 20% in the next five years”

• Howard Marks on credit ‘cockroaches’ and canaries: In his latest memo, Oaktree’s founder argued that recent fraud-laced bankruptcies (First Brands, Tricolor) don’t signal a systemic breakdown but a cyclical reset. Defaults and occasional frauds are normal, standards fell in the long boom, and prudence is re-elevating; private credit isn’t “broken,” but credit skills matter as easy money’s bezzle unwind

• Trump cuts deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to expand access to weight-loss drugs: The agreements lower prices on GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic while granting the companies tariff relief and faster FDA review. Medicare coverage will also expand at pricing of $149/month, aiming to make the drugs more affordable and widely available. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has voiced skepticism toward GLP-1s, but broader access is expected to drive usage beyond the current 12% of adults

• Utah’s Onset Financial faces scrutiny in First Brands collapse: Onset, owed $1.9B, leased assets from auto parts to office furniture under deals yielding up to 580% returns. Restructuring advisers may reclassify its leases as loans, as court filings highlight questions over whether Onset’s SPVs ever properly acquired the assets, with missing documentation and possible failures to follow credit terms

• Perplexity x Snapchat: Snap signed a deal to integrate Perplexity’s AI search engine into its My AI chatbot, giving Perplexity access to 940 million users. The $400M cash-and-equity agreement will start generating revenue for Snap in 2026.

• GTA delayed again: Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed yet again by Take-Two Interactive, pushed back 6 months from May 2026 to November 2026

• Sacks brings down the hammer on Sam (sort of): David Sacks, President Trump’s AI and crypto czar, said there will be “no federal bailout for AI” following OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s comments about a potential government “backstop.” Friar later clarified that OpenAI was not seeking a guarantee and that her remarks were misinterpreted

• Elon Musk awarded nearly $1T Tesla pay package: Shareholders approved a compensation plan that could grant Musk up to $900B over 10 years, making him the best-paid CEO in history and potentially the world’s first trillionaire. The payout depends on Tesla reaching an $8.5T valuation and hitting ambitious production targets, including 1M robotaxis and 1M humanoid robots.

• Onex eyes more insurance deals after $7B AIG partnership: CEO Bobby Le Blanc said Onex could redeploy billions into “Convex-like” transactions after teaming with AIG to buy stakes in specialty insurer Convex Group. Onex will own 63% and AIG 35% under the deal, which includes AIG investing $2B in Onex funds and taking a 9.9% equity stake

• Casino operator hires Moelis for debt talks: Affinity Interactive tapped Moelis & Co. to advise on negotiations with bondholders as it explores restructuring options. Creditors, represented by Akin Gump, fear a liability management move that could dilute debt value

M&A Transactions💭 

Sojern, operator of an AI based travel marketing platform, was acquired for $250.0M by RateGain Technology (BOM: 543417). Jefferies advised on the sale.

Signal AI, developer of a media intelligence platform, was acquired for $165.0M by Battery Ventures, MMC Ventures, Mercuri, and Highland Europe. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

MRC Global, distributes pipes, valves, fittings, and other infrastructure products, was acquired for $2.033B by DNOW (NYS: DNOW). EV/EBITDA was 21.86x and EV/Revenue was 0.71x. J.P. Morgan and Sodali & Co advised on the sale.

Forge Global Holdings (NYS: FRGE), a financial services platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $572.91M by The Charles Schwab (NYS: SCHW). EV/Revenue was 6.31x. Financial Technology Partners advised on the sale.

FlaktGroup, designer and manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, was acquired for EUR 1.5B by Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930).

Brighthouse Financial (NAS: BHF), a provider of annuity products, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.1B by Aquarian Holdings. EV/EBITDA was 3.13x and EV/Revenue was 0.7x. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Spyce, developer of a fully robotic kitchen, was acquired for $186.4M by Wonder Group.

Laborie Medical Technologies has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The JADA System Business Division of Organon & Co. (Alydia Health) for $465.0M. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Gulf Island Fabrication (NAS: GIFI), a fabricator of complex steel structures, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $192.0M by IES Holdings (NAS: IESC). EV/EBITDA was 15.52x and EV/Revenue was 1.26x.

Dalata Hotel Group (DUB: DHG), a hotel operator in the lodging industry, was acquired for EUR 1.2B by Pandox (STO: PNDX B). Rothschild & Co, Davy Group, Berenberg Bank, and Goodbody Stockbrokers advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Ripple, developer of a blockchain platform, raised $500.0M of venture funding led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group at a pre-money valuation $39.5B.

Quantinuum, operator of a technology company, raised $800.0M of Series B venture funding led by NVentures at a pre-money valuation of $10.0B.

MoEngage, developer of a marketing customer engagement platform, raised $100.0M of Series F venture funding led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity and A91 Partners.

Mind Robotics, manufacturer of AI driven robotic systems, raised $115.0M of seed funding led by Eclipse Ventures.

Braveheart Bio, developer of a cardiac myosin inhibitor, raised $165.0M of Series A venture funding led by OrbiMed, Forbion, and Andreessen Horowitz.

Armis, developer of an asset intelligence cybersecurity platform, raised $425.0M of venture funding led by The Goldman Sachs Group at a pre-money valuation $5.67B.

Synchron, developer of an implantable stent-rode, raised $200.0M of Series D venture funding led by Double Point Ventures.

Spotawheel, operator of an online used car selling platform, raised EUR 300.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity from undisclosed investors.

Fust Lab, manufacturer of ultrasonic equipment, raised $3.18B of venture funding led by Enlight Ventures.

Credix, developer of a credit infrastructure business-to-business platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. $6.0M of equity funding was led by Patria Investment with participation from Valor Capital Group, ParaFi Capital. $94.0M of debt was provided by Poligono Capital.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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