November 16th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Futures are up, with SPX futures +0.32% and Nasdaq futures +0.56%, but stocks fell over the past couple days as the odds of a December rate cut decreased. Rates are a bit of a tossup, and Kalshi odds now have the Fed more likely to maintain its rate than cut. The Fed’s Bostic in particular signaled that he’s not yet sure if he’ll be in favor of a cut at the December 10th Fed meeting.

While a 25bps rate delay isn’t material enough IMO to deride my short-term bullishness, it’s worth noting that risk assets such as Bitcoin and some of the quantum and high-multiple names have traded down materially lately; emphasizing the positioning of focusing on quality and fairer multiple stories. Bitcoin is now trading at $94k and is flat on the year.

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Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Trip.com, LifeMD, HP

• Tuesday: Home Depot, Klarna, Amer Sports, Baidu

• Wednesday: NVIDIA, TJX Companies, Palo Alto, Lowe's, Target, Williams-Sonoma, Bullish, Gap

• Thursday: Walmart, Intuit, Bath & Body, Ross Stores

• Friday: BJ's Wholesale, Moog Inc,

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey (5.5), Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller speaks

• Tuesday: Home builder confidence index (37), Business inventories (0.1%), Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr speaks

• Wednesday: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (3.0), Housing starts, Building permits, U.S. trade deficit (-$61.0B), Minutes of Fed's October FOMC meeting

• Thursday: U.S. employment report, U.S. unemployment rate, U.S. hourly wages, Hourly wages year over year, Initial jobless claims (225,000), Existing home sales (4.08M), Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook speaks, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks

• Friday: Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr welcoming remarks, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks, S&P Flash U.S. services, S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, Consumer sentiment final (51.0)

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Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Disney $DIS ( ▼ 1.68% ) Missed on revenue coming in at $22.46B, while EPS beat at $1.11 vs. $1.05. Streaming strength offset continued declines in linear TV and a weak film slate. Disney+ added 3.8M subs, and streaming profitability improved sharply even as networks faced ad-softness and the YouTube TV blackout. The company doubled its FY26 buyback plan and signaled continued momentum across parks and cruises.

Stubhub $STUB ( ▼ 20.99% ) Beat on revenue but EPS missed sharply due to a one time $1.4B IPO stock-comp charge that drove a $4.27 loss per share. Underlying demand for live events stayed solid, though comps were tough without last year’s Taylor Swift tour lift, and sentiment softened as the company declined to give current-quarter guidance, promising a full 2026 outlook with Q4 results.

Flutter Entertainment $FLUT ( ▼ 1.2% ) Revenue beat but EPS posted a wider loss on an India impairment and stepped up U.S. promotional and prediction market investment, the company cut full year revenue and EBITDA guidance as it leans harder into expansion and competitive spend.

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• The Markets are starting to track big tech CDS. Oracle CDS has widened out past 100bps over the past month, and even Meta CDS just started trading for the first time last month! While Oracle CDS hitting 2-year highs is our chart of the week, the likelihood of an IG credit default is extremely low and these spreads are still quite tight.

• Warren’s farewell gift: Berkshire Hathaway has been building a position in Google and now owns a $4.3B stake in the company, making it Berkshire’s 10th largest equity holding. Strong demand for AI in Alphabet’s cloud business has helped the stock grow over 45% this year

  • While Apple remains Berkshire’s biggest holding, the firm trimmed its position in the company by 15% in Q3. Berkshire made another large sale to shrink its stake in BofA by 6%, and also reduced its holdings in Verisign and DaVita. This marks the 12th straight quarter Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks

  • 13-F News: Overall, hedge fund managers seem to be taking a cautious stance as valuations remain ultra-high. David Tepper sold 8 million shares of Intel and trimmed his stake in Alibaba, Uber and Lyft, and other Mag 7 companies while making purchases in Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm. Peter Thiel sold his entire stake in Nvidia, and Saudi PIF exited nine U.S. companies to shrink its U.S. portfolio by about 18%

• Bessent says Trump’s $2,000 checks need to go through congress first: Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that “we need legislation” for the proposed dividend checks, and added that they would have an income limit. Trump acknowledges that it would cost a lot of money, but says “the tariffs allow us to give a dividend.” Tariff revenues are projected to be around $300B for 2025

• Switzerland and the U.S. agree to 15% tariffs: A deal was reached to bring Switzerland’s tariff rate down from 39% to 15%, in line with the EU. In exchange, Switzerland has pledged to invest $200B in the U.S. by the end of 2028, including in pharmaceuticals, railway equipment, and gold smelting

• Michael Burry’s fund winds down: Burry has officially deregistered Scion Asset Management, saying “my estimation of values in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets." Burry has warned of an AI bubble, and has recently purchased millions of puts in Nvidia and Palantir

• Verizon Layoffs: Verizon is set to cut roughly 15k jobs, about 15% of its workforce, in an effort to reduce costs as competition rises in both the wireless and home internet markets. The company also plans to transition about 200 of its stores into franchise operations to shift employees off its payroll

• Walmart CEO to Retire After Transformative 12-Year Run: Doug McMillon, who began as an hourly worker in 1984, will retire in January, after leading the company for nearly 12 years. Walmart’s stock nearly tripled and its e-commerce and tech capabilities grew substantially, strengthening its position against Amazon

• Cantor FitzGovernment’s record year: Cantor Group is on track to post revenue of over $2.5B in 2025, an all-time high. Much of the revenue comes from a surge in crypto dealmaking and an early push into now-booming sectors such as rare-earths, data centers, and quantum computing. The firm is now controlled by Brandon and Kyle Lutnick, sons of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

• If private credit cracks, insurers could be the real fault line: The FT warns that while bank exposure to private credit is modest, insurers have quietly loaded up, with over a third of US insurer assets now in private credit, much of it illiquid and privately rated. UBS’s Colm Kelleher has flagged “ratings shopping” as a systemic risk, especially with Level-3 assets heavily reliant on internal models

• CVC launches a global credit secondaries strategy: London-based Henri Lusa will lead the group. This is an expansion of CVC’s €17B PE secondaries strategy

• Blue Owl private credit merger: The firm is merging two of its private credit funds, leaving some investors facing a 20% hit. The fund was trading at a 20% discount to NAV before the merger, driving an increase in redemptions

• Private equity payouts slump as exits stall, Partners Capital warns: Distributions have fallen to ~15% annually (1/3 historical norms) as buyout firms struggle to unload assets bought in the cheap-money boom of 2020–22. With exits gummed up, firms are leaning harder on continuation funds and private IPOs

• Topgolf Sale Talks: Topgolf Callaway is in talks to sell its Topgolf unit for ~$1B to Leonard Green. The PE Sponsor is already a minority owner of Topgolf

• Walgreens cuts holiday pay after Sycamore takeover: Newly private-equity-owned Walgreens scrapped six paid holidays for hourly staff as part of a broader cost-cutting drive. The move follows corporate layoffs and plans to shutter the company’s downtown Chicago office amid pressure from thin prescription margins, theft, and rising operating costs. Sycamore Partners, which bought the chain in August, notified workers of the change in October. It comes on top of a previously announced plan to close 1,200 stores over three years

• CD&R-backed Multi-Color sees earnings slump as debt talks loom: Label maker Multi-Color is heading into restructuring negotiations after Q3 EBITDA plunged 26% and revenue fell 7%, deepening pressure ahead of more than $5B in looming maturities. Its bonds have tumbled to the mid-60s, down from the mid-90s in May, as creditors brace for contentious talks given the mix of secured and unsecured claims

• Anthropic found Chinese Hackers used its AI in the first ever reported AI-orchestrated cyber attack. This state-sponsored group was stopped in its tracks, but Anthropic’s press release worries about how quickly a bad actor was able to automate their actions at scale

• Dutch banks slash jobs amid AI overhaul: Thousands of banking jobs are being cut across the Netherlands as lenders turn to artificial intelligence and cost-cutting to offset falling profits. ASN Bank will eliminate up to 950 roles by the end of 2026, while ING said roughly 1,000 positions are at risk from “digitalization, AI, and evolving customer needs”

M&A Transactions💭 

Mersana Therapeutics (NAS: MRSN), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $285.0M by Day One Biopharmaceuticals (NAS: DAWN). EV/Revenue was 6.24x. TD Cowen advised on the sale.

Duravant has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Warehouse Automation Business of Matthews International for $230.0M. EV/Revenue was 3.19x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Maritime Resources, a gold exploration company, was acquired for CAD 292.417M by New Found Gold (TSX: NFG). EV/Revenue was 85.74x. Canaccord Genuity, Paradigm Capital, and SCP Resource Finance advised on the sale.

EMX Royalty, a royalty and prospect generator, was acquired for CAD 679.7M by Elemental Altus Royalties (TSX: ELE). EV/EBITDA was 28.82x and EV/Revenue was 18.2x. CIBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

ECN Capital (TSE: ECN), a financial business service provider, entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 1.9B by Warburg Pincus. EV/EBITDA was 28.41x and EV/Revenue was 5.72x. CIBC Capital Markets.

Crown Bioscience, operator of a biology contract, was acquired for $204.0M by Adicon Clinical Laboratory (HKG: 09860).

Bowers, provider of mechanical contracting services, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $475.0M by Legence (NAS: LGN). EV/EBITDA was 6.6x and EV/Revenue was 0.62x.

Sparsh Infratech, operator of a health and wellness resort, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for INR 240.0 core by Indian Hotels Company (BOM: 500850).

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Zilch, operator of a DTC ad-subsidized payments network, raised $175.0M of venture funding led by KKCG.

Gopuff, operator of a go-to instant commerce platform, raised $250.0M of venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners and Eldridge Industries at a pre-money valuation of $8.25B.

Classiq Technologies, a software development company, raised $137.0M of Series C venture funding led by Entree Capital at a post-money valuation of $411.77M.

CHAOS, operates an advanced distribution detection and effects technology company, raised $510.0M of Series D venture funding led by Valor Equity Partners at a post-valuation of $4.5B.

Anysphere, develops AI powered coding platform, raised $2.3B in Series D venture funding led by Coatue Management and Accel at a post-money valuation of $29.3B.

Alembic, develops a marketing event conversion and correlation engine, raised $145.0M of Series B venture funding led by Accenture and Prysm Capital.

MainFunc, develops a search engine platform, raised $200.0M of Series B venture funding led by LG Technology Ventures, Tencent Investment, and Hongshang Capital at a pre-money valuation of $800.0M.

Firmus Technologies, provider of advanced AI infrastructure, raised $830.0M of venture funding from Nvidia, Tectonic Investment Management, and Archibald Capital at a pre-money valuation of $5.17B.

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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