May 26th - The Week Ahead

Together with Pacaso

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! Hope everyone got to rest and recharge this past weekend.

Well Tariffs on the EU were back on: Friday Morning’s announcement that the EU would face 50% tariffs effective June 1st was quickly delayed back to July 9th by President Trump following a productive call with the EU’s Commission President on Sunday. Markets responded positively, with U.S. stock futures rising over 1% and European stocks up 1% today.

The “Taco Trade” phenomenon has gained steam lately, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” - encouraging equity investors to buy the dip since Trump will change his mind on tariff escalation quickly. We saw this on Friday, with the market trading down -1.1% to -1.4% or so instead of a mass sell-off. This may create some complacency in the market, as a “Boy who cried tariffs” policy might shock the market should large tariffs go into effect. With that said, every country that has engaged to Trump’s liking has seen significant tariff relief. But for now, the tariff clock is being run down to early July for several countries.

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Alright, let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: AutoZone, Heico

• Wednesday: NVIDIA, Salesforce, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, U-Haul, SentinelOne, Abercrombie & Fitch, Macy’s, Capri Holdings

• Thursday: Costco, Ulta Beauty, Dell, MongoDB, UiPath, Zscaler, Best Buy, Burlington, Kohl’s, Bath & Body Works

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes release from the May 6–7 meeting

• Thursday: 1Q GDP, first revision (-0.3%), Initial jobless claims (228k)

• Friday: April PCE Index (0.1%), April Core PCE Price Index (2.6% y/y), April personal income (0.3%), April Consumer Spending (0.2%)

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Earnings Corner 📜 

Trending Up 📈 

Webull (BULL) $BULL In its first report as a public company, Webull posted 1Q revenue beat. Revenue came in at $117.4MM, up 32% y/y, and swung to net income of $12.9MM from a loss last year. Adjusted operating profit reached $28.7MM (24.4% margins). User metrics showed strong growth, with customer assets up 45%, Daily Average Revenue Trades up 44%, and funded accounts up 10%.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) $BJ ( ▼ 1.31% ) BJ’s delivered a steady 1Q, with revenue beating at $5.15B, up 4.8% y/y. EPS came in at $1.13, ahead of $0.83 last year. Excluding gas comps rose 3.9%, and digital sales surged 35%. Membership fee income climbed 8.1%, and management reaffirmed FY guidance, highlighting traffic gains and higher-tier memberships.

Intuit (INTU) $INTU ( ▲ 4.42% ) Revenue beat, up 15% y/y to $7.8B, with EPS climbing 18% to $10.02. Management raised FY25 guidance and pointed to strong AI-driven momentum across TurboTax and QuickBooks. Intuit called it the fastest organic growth in over a decade.

Trending Down 📉 

Deckers (DECK) $DECK ( ▲ 7.83% ) Revenue beat, FY25 sales rose 16.3% y/y to a record $4.986B, driven by strong growth by HOKA and UGG . EPS jumped 30% to $6.33, and gross margin expanded to 57.9%. Management struck a cautious tone, withholding FY26 guidance and pointing to near-term tariff and trade uncertainty.

Workday (WDAY) $WDAY ( ▲ 0.54% ) Workday revenue beat 13% y/y to $2.24B, and EPS beat at $2.23 vs. $2.01 expected. Management held its FY26 subscription revenue guide flat, which disappointed investors despite a strong quarter. Commentary cited macro uncertainty and cautious enterprise spending.

Ross Stores (ROST) $ROST ( ▲ 2.94% ) Ross revenue beat, growing 3% to $5.0B. EPS of $1.47 edged just past last year’s mark. Comps were flat as traffic softened and tariffs weighed on freight costs. Management withdrew full-year guidance, citing uncertainty, and set a cautious tone with Q2 EPS guided at $1.40–$1.55.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Trump wants phone production onshored: Unlike the EU pivot, Trump has his eye on onshoring phone production. Even with Apple pivoting iPhone production to India, he’s looking to slap 25% tariffs on iPhones produced abroad. Similar tariffs are being contemplated for Samsung and other phone makers

• Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” latest: The House passed the President’s signature tax bill, locking in tax cuts from his first term and adding temporary breaks on tips, OT pay, and senior deductions. It also includes Medicaid work requirements and $12B to reimburse Texas for Border security. Opposition and major changes are expected in the Senate

• Trump Media’s Crypto Raise: Trump Media and Technology Group is planning to raise $3B to acquire Bitcoin and other Crypto. The contemplated S&U involves $2B of new equity and $1B of convertible bonds

• OnlyFans flirts with $8B exit: The content subscription giant is reportedly in advanced talks to sell at a valuation of around $8B. Founded in 2016, OnlyFans has grown into a cash-printing adult content platform with $1B+ in EBITDA — but is also a complicated brand

• BYD ignites EV price war: China’s top EV maker cut prices by up to 34% on 22 models, sending its stock down 8% and dragging rivals with it. The move pressures margins across the industry, even as BYD outsells Tesla in Europe and posts record sales at home

• Oracle's $40B chip feast: Larry Ellison is going all in on AI. Oracle has committed to buying $40B worth of Nvidia chips over the next few years to support its cloud infrastructure and AI services. Analysts say it's one of the largest GPU orders in history — and a major flex in Oracle’s fight to catch AWS and Azure

• Japan unveils $6.3B tariff relief package: In response to U.S. tariffs, Japan plans to allocate 900 billion yen (approximately $6.3B) in emergency funds to support small businesses and reduce utility costs. The final decision is expected as early as Tuesday

• Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm: The JPMorgan CEO said he expects corporate earnings to “deteriorate meaningfully” over the next six months, citing higher-for-longer rates and geopolitical volatility. Dimon has been consistently bearish on the soft landing narrative

• Xi is evaluating a new Made-In-China plan: The Chinese government is evaluating an update to their Made in China campaign to increase high-end technology manufacturing, trying to ramp up chip-making equipment production as the U.S. looks to push countries away from Chinese manufacturing

  • Meanwhile, China pushes for financial sector consolidation: Beijing is intensifying efforts to merge banks and securities firms to create globally competitive financial institutions. The strategy aims to stabilize the financial system and enhance risk management capabilities.

• The Saks Lender Group is Fighting: An ad hoc group of majority bondholders are rejecting additional holders from joining the group, per Octus. Paul Weiss and Lazard are their advisors, and the $2.2B 11% secured notes last traded around 47 cents on the dollar

• Venture debt dries up: Fundraising in the venture debt world is down significantly in 2025, with just $5.3B raised year-to-date — a 47% drop from the same period last year. As equity markets recover, startups are less desperate for expensive debt, and rising rates have made it harder to underwrite deals

• Harvard vs. Homeland Security: Harvard is lawyering up in a battle to keep international students in the U.S. after new visa scrutiny threatens enrollment for thousands. A letter from university leaders called the DHS policy “hostile to the global academic mission,” and major endowment donors are reportedly weighing in

• JioStar nears Netflix scale off cricket boom: India’s largest streaming service hit 280mm subscribers — just shy of Netflix — after locking down rights to the Indian Premier League. Subscriptions surged from 50M in March. Just six months old, JioStar is a product of a merger of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance media empire with Disney in India (and James Murdoch)

• Claude will snitch on you: According to internal docs, Anthropic’s Claude AI has been trained to flag sensitive or potentially criminal behavior — and will report certain content to moderators or legal teams. Critics say it turns a chat assistant into a surveillance tool, while the company says it’s about “safety and compliance”

• Shale Boom Pressure: U.S. oil execs warn of the shale boom era’s end as falling prices and Trump’s tariffs drive rig shutdowns and CapEx cuts. Output is forecast to fall for the first time in a decade. With OPEC ramping supply and break-even at $65, an even deeper pullback is expected if crude hits $50

• Salesforce is in talks to acquire Informatica: The deal fell through last year - but a deal could be announced as soon as this week. Permira and CPPIB, who took the Company private in 2015, still hold majority stakes

• Kashkari doesn’t think a rate move could happen until September, noting significant uncertainty in trade and immigration

M&A Transactions💭 

The Chemical Business in Texas and Ohio of Goodyear Tire & Rubber was acquired for $650.0M by Gemspring Capital. Deutsche Bank and Lazard advised on the sale.

Telefonica Moviles del Uruguay, provider of telecommunication and mobile network services, was acquired for $440.0M by Millicom Spain Cable.

MC Expert, provider of construction services, was acquired for RUB 8.5B by Medkapital. EV/Revenue was 1.9x.

Honeywell (NAS: HON) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Catalyst Technology Unit of Johnson Matthey (LON: JMAT) for GBP 1.8B. Deutsche Numis, Citigroup, and Robey Warshaw advised on the sale.

The Personal Protective Equipment Business Unit of Honeywell (NAS: HON) was acquired for $1.325B by Protective Industrial Products.

HiPhi Auto, manufacturer of intelligent electric vehicles, was acquired for $100.0M by EV Electra.

Dalmore Capital, provider of independent fund management services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 100.0M by Royal London Asset Management. Rothschild & Co. advised on the sale.

Telegraph Media Group, operator of a media publishing company, was entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 500.0M by RedBird Capital Partners and International Media Investments.

123Roulement, operator of an e-commerce marketplace, was acquired for EUR 90.0M by Latour Capital, and Initiative & Finance. EV/Revenue was 3.13x.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Awardco, developer of an employee recognition platform, raised $165.0M of Series B venture funding from Sixth Street Partners, Spectrum Equity, and General Catalyst at a pre-money valuation of $835.0M.

Stord, developer of a digital warehousing and distribution network, raised $200.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity at a pre-money valuation of $1.42B. $80.0M of Series E funding was led by Strike Capital.

Airwellex, operator of a global payments and financial platform, raised $300.0M of Series F venture funding led by Square Peg Capital at a pre-money valuation of $5.9B.

World View, a leading stratospheric exploration and flight company, raised $2.57B of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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Until next time!

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