March 22nd - The Week Ahead

Halfway through Trump's 48 hour ultimatum

Author

HY Harry
March 22, 2026

Welcome back.

We have roughly 24 hours to go until Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum is hit. The President posted this on Truth Social 24 hours ago:

In response, Iran has said it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz, hit vital infrastructure in the Middle East, and made warnings about purchasing US treasury bonds. On that note, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable MBS orders to try to stabilize the market.

S&P futures are -0.15% and Nasdaq futures are -0.23% currently; while Bitcoin is hanging onto $68k and Crude is sitting above $98/barrel. This follows a tough Friday where the S&P was -1.5% and Nasdaq was -2% respectively following the deployment of thousands of Marines to the Middle East.

The rise in oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz being closed would be quite stark, so that reality coupled with this ultimatum gives us a base case that peak escalation will come to a head this week. Treasury Secretary Bessent himself has called for “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes.”

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Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

  • Tuesday: GameStop, KB Home, Smithfield Foods, AAR Corp, Braze

  • Wednesday: Paychex, Chewy

  • Thursday: Commercial Metals, Designer Brands

  • Friday: Carnival Corporation

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

  • Monday: Construction spending (0.1%)

  • Tuesday: U.S. productivity revision (1.8%), S&P flash U.S. services PMI, S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI

  • Wednesday: Import price index (0.7%), Import price index minus fuel

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210,000)

  • Friday: Consumer sentiment final (54.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

  •  $ACN ( ▼ 1.75% ) Accenture beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue at $18.04B vs. $17.8B and EPS at $2.93 vs. $2.82. Growth was driven by strong AI and cloud demand alongside record bookings of $22.1B, signaling solid enterprise tech spend. Margins expanded on cost discipline and shift towards higher margin AI and consulting work. Yet guidance was below expectations as federal spending weakness and slower conversion of bookings limit near-term growth.

  • $BABA ( ▼ 1.99% ) Alibaba missed revenue ($40.7B vs. $40.9B) and EPS expectations. Strong cloud and AI demand alongside rapid quick commerce growth were offset by weak core e-commerce and softer China consumer spending. Margins were pressured as heavy investment in AI infrastructure, user acquisition, and fast delivery drove a sharp rise in sales & marketing and logistics costs. Guidance came in below expectations as continued investment and weak core e-commerce trends are expected to pressure margins and limit profitability.

  • $FDX ( ▲ 0.77% ) FedEx beat revenue ($24.0B vs. $23.4B) and EPS ($5.25 vs. $4.09) driven by strong parcel demand and pricing gains across express and ground. Growth was supported by higher volumes and fuel surcharges, while Network 2.0 cost cuts (facility consolidation + automation) drove efficiency and margin expansion despite higher wages and transport costs. Guidance came in above expectations as cost savings and global demand support earnings.

  • $DRI ( ▼ 0.67% ) Darden best revenue at $3.35B vs. $3.33B and EPS was in line. Strong SSS at Olive Garden and LongHorn drove growth. Sales were supported by steady traffic and value-focused menu offerings, alongside new openings. Margins were slightly pressured by higher beef and marketing costs. Guidance was raised on continued comp strength, with $25M planned to convert underperforming Bahama Breeze locations into stronger brands.

  • $SIG ( ▼ 0.57% ) Signet missed on revenue with $2.3B and beat on EPS. Comps were down 0.7% because of weaker consumer demand, tariff pressure, and higher gold costs. Margins held up on cost control and buybacks. The company is closing about 100 stores and focusing on core brands to improve profitability. Guidance was cautious with comps expected between -1.25% and +2.5% amid ongoing macro pressure.

On The Move 📈 📉

IPO Roundup 📍 

  • Yotta Data Services, an Nvidia-backed data center in India, is looking to raise $500M-$600M in a pre-IPO round at $4B valuation before filing for a domestic IPO.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

  • OpenAI plans to almost double its headcount next year to 8,000, deploying most of the new hires across product development, engineering, research, and sales. This comes as OpenAI is planning to fuse its Chat, Coding, and Browser offerings together into a singular “superapp” to simplify the user experience and shift more towards Enterprise.

  • Airlines may face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing cancellations for long-haul flights.

    • Meanwhile, Airline security lines across the U.S. are in a dire state following TSA staffing shortages. ICE agents will be deployed on Monday to assist with non-screening duties.

  • Unilever is in talks to separate its food business, which could be worth tens of billions, and combine it with spice maker McCormick in a potential all-stock deal. The remaining Unilever company would focus solely on beauty, personal-care, and home products.

  • Pentagon fast-tracks AI battlefield integration with Palantir’s Maven: The Defense Department plans to formalize Maven’s Smart System as a program of record, securing stable funding and accelerating AI-enabled targeting and sensor-to-shooter integration across combat operations.

  • Coatue prepares to launch a new AI-focused fund and will close its existing $8B long-only fund to focus on the strategy. The new vehicle will be structured as a long-biased crossover fund, and comes at a time when AI and tech startups are staying private for longer periods.

  • Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund posted its first loss since 2022 as BCRED fell 0.4% in February. Blackstone says the loss reflected wider spreads and unrealized marks on individual names, including Thoma Bravo’s Medallia.

    • Additionally, BCRED is planning to finalize a CLO deal early this week, with the AAA tranche expected to price at S+130.

  • EA’s debt sale has drawn ~$25B in demand from investors for its $15B offering to fund the buyout of the company.

  • ION Group has increased bond buybacks as short interest builds amid concern over the software sector. A note from ION Platform is currently trading at 93 cents, with about 18% of float on loan to short sellers.

  • BNP Paribas increases synthetic SRT exposure: BNP Paribas increased its securitized exposure to originated synthetic significant risk transfers by 43% last year to €66.7B, reinforcing its position as a leading issuer.

    • ECB scrutinizes leverage in SRT deals: The ECB is asking banks to identify lenders providing leverage to SRT investors, amid concerns over hidden risks and shifting credit risk without moving loans off balance sheets.

  • Nexstar reshuffled its $6.9B Tegna buyout package toward bonds, boosting total bond sales to $5.12B and cutting the leveraged loan by $1B, as appetite for risky debt softens in volatile markets.

  • GLP bonds fall on regulatory concerns: GLP’s 2028 bonds slid to 75 cents on the dollar, its biggest weekly drop on record, after reports that Chinese regulators informally urged insurers to limit dealings with the firm.

  • Echelon owners explore potential €4.5B sale: Starwood Capital and founder Niall Molloy are weighing a partial or full sale of Echelon Data Centres, with a process that could launch in weeks.

  • JPMorgan and BNP Paribas launched a $4.7B loan leveraged loan offering to back Clayton Dubilier & Rice’s $6.2B buyout of Sealed Air, testing investor appetite amid volatile credit markets.

  • Banks enable private credit shorts: JPMorgan and Goldman are among the banks offering hedge funds ways to bet against private credit by assembling baskets of listed companies with exposure to the space.

  • Project Hail Mary opened to the biggest box office of 2026, earnings $80mm domestically and $140mm worldwide.

  • The Fed’s Bowman still expects 3 rate cuts by YE to support the labor market, which has begun to show signs of softness. Bowman adds that she expects strong economic growth this year, but remains uncertain of the Iran war’s economic impact.

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M&A Transactions

Tegna (NYS: TGNA), a media company, was acquired for $6.595B by Nexstar Media Group (NAS: NXST). EV/EBITDA was 12.71x and EV/Revenue was 2.43x. Allen & Company advised on the sale.

CoolIT Systems, a provider of advanced liquid cooling technology for AI data centers, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.75B by Ecolab (NYS: ECL). Citi acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Ecolab.

Owen Mumford, manufacturer of medical devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 150.0M by Embecta (NAS: EMBC). EV/Revenue was 2.22x.

Madison Fire & Rescue, manufacturer of fire and rescue equipment and safety technology systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.95B by 3M and Bain Capital.

KANAMEL, operator of a joint holding company intended for content production, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $233.0M by Nippon Televsion (TKS: 9404). The potential transaction values the company at an estimated $291.5M.

Arlington Capital Partners entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Defense Unit of Eptec through a $150.0M LBO.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Oasis Security, developer of a non-human identity management platform, raised $120.0M of Series B venture funding led by Craft Ventures.

Cloaked, developer of personalized privacy software, raised $375.0M of Series B venture funding led by General Catalyst and Liberty City Ventures.

Cape, operator of a privacy-first mobile carrier intended to protect user data, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Bain Capital Ventures and IVP.

Advanced Machine Intelligence, developer of advanced AI computational systems, raised $1.03B of Seed Funding in a deal led by Cathay Innovation, Greycroft, and Hiro Capital at a pre-money valuation of $3.5B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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