June 8th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Futures are slightly down as the U.S. and China are set to kick off more trade talks in London on Monday. Bessent and Lutnick will be leading the charge for America. There’s early hopes that talks will continue to be constructive, and that any escalation will be merely a “TACO Trade”.

Here’s a look at earnings this week - 1Q earnings have largely wrapped up.

• Monday: Casey’s General Stores

• Tuesday: GameStop, J.M. Smucker, Core & Main, Academy Sports, Dave & Busters, United Natural Foods

• Wednesday: Oracle, Chewy, Victoria’s Secret,

• Thursday: Adobe, RH, Korn Ferry

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Wednesday: CPI (0.2%), Core CPI (0.3%), CPI y/y (2.5%), Core CPI y/y (2.9%), May Federal Budget (–$318B)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (242k), PPI (0.2%), Core PPI (–0.1%), PPI y/y (2.4%), Core PPI y/y (2.9%)

• Friday: June preliminary Consumer Sentiment (55.0)

• Other: Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference is this week - the Tech Giant has been beleaguered by tariffs and appears to have fallen behind in the AI race, so Investors want to hear more on both fronts

Earnings Corner 📜 

Broadcom (AVGO) $AVGO ( ▼ 5.0% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, with guidance in line. Revenue rose 20% y/y and EPS came in at $1.58. Growth was driven by $4.42B in AI chip sales and $6.62B in software revenue, up 25% y/y mainly from VMware. Management flagged continued demand from three major hyperscalers as AI spend ramps.

Lululemon (LULU) $LULU ( ▼ 19.81% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, but cut full-year guidance. Sales rose from $2.21B to $2.37B and EPS hit $2.60, but U.S. comps declined and Q2 earnings were guided below Street. Tariffs are pressuring margins, and Vuori is gaining further traction in Lululemon’s largest market.

DocuSign (DOCU) $DOCU ( ▼ 18.97% ) Beat on revenue and EPS, but billings missed and guidance was lowered. Revenue rose 8% y/y to $763.6M and EPS hit $0.90, but billings came in light at $739.6M and FY guidance was revised down. Subscription growth held, but forward momentum remains a concern.

Vail Resorts (MTN) $MTN ( ▼ 2.89% ) The ski resort giant posted a mixed quarter. Revenue held steady at $1.296B, while EPS beat at $10.54. Pass pricing remained strong, offsetting softer trends in lodging and retail. FY EBITDA guidance was narrowed, signaling a more cautious tone from the resort operator.

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Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Elon and Trump’s Breakup: Things have gotten messy between the U.S. President and the richest man in the world. The fallout blew up on Thursday as the two argued over who deserved more credit for Trump’s election victory. Things quickly spiraled into threats of cutting billions of dollars in federal contracts with Musk’s companies, and Trump saying Elon would “have to pay very serious consequences” if he funded Democrats in mid-term elections. The relationship appears to be severely strained, although Musk has deleted his post linking President Trump to Jeffrey Epstein

  • Meanwhile, it was reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Elon Musk had a bit of a physical scuffle at some point, with Musk hitting him like a rugby player after Bessent questioned DOGE efforts

• Meta is evaluating a multi-billion dollar investment into Scale AI: Last valued at $14B, Meta is evaluating an investment that could potentially exceed $10B into the artificial intelligence startup. Scale AI provides data services that help companies train machine learning models. If completed, this would be Meta’s largest ever external AI investment

• Job Numbers of +139k were robust, beating expectations of 125k due to strong growth in healthcare and leisure & hospitality. This is slightly below last month’s revised number of 147k. Unemployment remained at 4.2%

• Corporate Layoffs are ramping up: Economic uncertainty has added pressure on companies to trim costs, and job cuts are one way they’re doing it. Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart are among those who have announced layoffs in recent weeks. For many companies, AI has become a legitimate consideration when evaluating workforce reductions

• Wall Street animal spirits are selectively starting to stir - our friends at Semafor highlighted that some selective dealmaking and long-waited IPOs are starting to play out, despite some tariff uncertainty

• JP Morgan’s Anti-Analyst Stance: In a letter sent to incoming Investment Banking Analysts, JP Morgan will reportedly fire any analyst who receives a job offer (presumably from Private Equity firms) during the first 18 months of their employment with JP Morgan

  • If you’re an Analyst with an offer to go Buyside at the end of your program, you should probably keep this information tight to your chest and not tell anyone in your analyst class

• Orlando Bravo says PE has lost its way: Following Thoma Bravo’s large fundraise, Orlando Bravo has said other PE firms are focusing too much on Macro and should always be buying and selling, with a focus on improving fundamentals, regardless of the macro backdrop

• Calpers saw 11.3% returns in PE assets in 2024, which were solid returns for the $544B retirement system

• GameStop is in buyout talks - with Sycamore among the Sponsors circling. GameStop has been meeting with Sponsors, but their Advisor has not been identified

• Newsom threatens to withhold federal taxes: California Governor Gavin Newsom responds as Trump prepares funding cuts targeting the state, suggesting that California could cut off its federal tax payments

• ECB lowers interest rates to 2.0%, in line with expectations, as inflation has fallen back towards the bank’s 2% target. Commentary from the bank’s president signals that a pause may be near after cutting 8 times since last June. The Reserve Bank of India also cut by a somewhat surprising 50 bps

• Debt Roundup:

  • DISH is preparing for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing - here’s the analysis of what’s going on from Octus

  • Musk’s xAI is trying to borrow $5B, but the recent Trump/Elon meltdown might complicate things. Prices on X’s outstanding debt traded down after the blowup, forcing Morgan Stanley to consider offering the xAI bonds at a discount. The deal, set to close later this month, would supply cash to build data centers for training Grok. xAI reportedly has -$341mm in Adj. EBITDA, but expects to grow to $2.7B in 2027, although FCF burn is aggressive

  • Baker Tilly, an accounting and advisory firm, has raised $1.5B in private credit financing to support its merger with Moss Adams. Pricing is S+450, with Blackstone leading the package (9fin)

• IPO Roundup:

  • Circle stock $CRCL ( ▲ 29.4% ) has tripled since going public on Thursday

  • Gemini files for an IPO: The Winklevoss Twins crypto exchange is looking to go public, taking advantage of the success of Circle

  • Omada Health $OMDA ( ▲ 21.05% ) had a successful IPO and raised $150mm at a >$1B valuation

M&A Transactions💭 

PowerTransitions, provider of energy redevelopment services, was acquired for $450.0M by Partners Group.

Resulticks, developer of an AI-driven audience engagement platform, reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.0B Diginex (NAS: DGNX).

Proper Cannabis, provider of cannabis recreational and medical products, was acquired for $102.0M by Vireo Growth (CNQ: VREO). Lineage Merchant Partners advised on the sale.

Plus, developer of an AI-based autonomous driving software, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire Churchill Capital IX through a reverse merger for an estimated $300.0M, putting the company’s pre-money valuation at $1.2B. Northland Securities advised on the sale.

Groupe Flamme, operator of a hazardous waste management company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 300.0M by Seche Environnement (PAR: SCHP). EV/EBITDA was 15.65x and EV/Revenue was 3.13x.

BankProv (NAS: PVBC), provides a range of banking products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $211.8M by Needham Bank (NAS: NBBK). EV/Net Income was 47.49x and EV/Revenue was 3.81x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Andritz (WBO: ANDR) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Diamond Power International Business of Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (NYS: BW) for $177.0M. EV/Revenue was 1.61x.

Renewi, a waste-to-product company, was acquired for GBP 701.0M by Macquarie Group. Berenberg Bank, Greenhill & Company, Peel Hunt, Perivan, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Cursor raised $900.0M in Series C funding from Thrive, Accel, Andreessen Horowitz, and DST.

Bolttech, developer of an AI-based point-of-sale insurance platform, raised $147.0M of Series C venture funding led by Dragon Fund at a pre-money valuation of $1.95B.

KylinSoft, developer of an application software, raised CNY 3.0B of venture funding from China Mobile Capital Holding, Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management, and CCB Financial Asset Investment at a pre-money valuation of CNY 8.4B.

Anysphere, developer of an AI-powered coding platform, raised $900.0M of Series C venture funding led by Thrive Capital at a pre-money valuation of $8.1B.

Anduril, operator of a defense technology company, raised $2.5B of Series G venture funding led by Founders Fund at a pre-money valuation of $27.5B.

Believ, provider of vehicle charging facility, raised EUR 300.0M of venture funding through a combination of equity and debt. The equity portion was led by Liberty Global and Zouk Capital. The debt portion was provided by ABN AMRO Bank, MUFG Securities EMEA, NatWest Group, and Santander UK.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

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