June 29th - The Week Ahead

Together with Buyside Hub

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Given the July 4th slowdown, we’re going to take this coming Thursday off and will be back with you on Sunday, July 6th. I hope you get a chiller week at work and have fun plans.

Remember as a heads-up, Trump has said he’s not planning to extend a pause on global tariffs beyond July 9th.

Additionally, we’re very excited to introduce Buyside Hub’s enterprise suite for finance firms looking to hire top talent. We’re helping out with two searches for investment professionals in Minneapolis, MN and Boston, MA. Sign up to apply.

Let’s get into it.

Earnings are pretty slow this week.

• Monday: Woodside Energy Group, Progress Software

• Tuesday: Constellation Brands, MSC Industrial Direct, Greenbrier Companies

• Wednesday: Haleon, Unifirst, Nordic American Tankers, Compass Diversified

• Thursday: Ferrovial

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Tuesday: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending (-0.1%), job openings (7.3 million), ISM manufacturing (48.6)

• Wednesday: ADP employment (120,000)

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (240,000), U.S. employment report (115,000), unemployment rate (4.3%), hourly wages (0.3%), hourly wages y/y (3.9%), trade deficit, S&P final U.S. services PMI, factory orders (8.2%), ISM services (50.5)

• Friday: No major reports; U.S. holiday

Introducing Buyside Hub’s Enterprise Suite

Buyside Hub has quickly grown into the fastest growing job board on Wall Street, becoming the premier destination for compensation analysis and to source Buyside job opportunities.

We’re excited to introduce Buyside Hub’s Enterprise Suite - the destination for hiring managers to learn more about why recruiting on Buyside Hub is a no brainer.

The Results speak for themselves - look at what Buyside firms are saying about recruiting on Buyside Hub so far 👇️ 

What are you waiting for? Ditch the pricey recruiters and get started with Buyside Hub.

Not a Buyside Hub user yet? Get started here

Earnings Corner 📜 

Nike (NKE) $NKE ( ▲ 15.19% ) Revenue and EPS beat expectations. Guidance confirmed sales and profit declines should moderate after hitting the low point this quarter. Management warned tariffs will add about $1B in costs next year but plans price hikes and supply shifts to offset. Digital sales tumbled 26% y/y, but investors cheered signs of stabilization.

Today’s Headlines 🍿 

• Trump vs Canada: Trump has terminated trade talks with Canada over the country’s plan to tax U.S. tech companies, stating that he will let them know their new tariff rate within the next seven days. Canada quickly made a move in retaliation, imposing a quota on U.S. steel imports with a 50% surcharge on imports above the quota

• The tariff impact is starting to flow through - sticker prices are starting to increase 8% to 15%, and inventory levels are also beginning to decrease. Like we mentioned in the earnings section, Nike announced that it had taken a $1B hit from tariffs

• Senate votes to advance ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’: Modifications, including a new deal on SALT deductions, largely made the bill more expensive, with an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office predicting a $3.9 trillion addition to the national debt. Other additions to the bill include work requirements for Medicaid, changes to SNAP, and increasing the debt ceiling to $5 trillion

  • Meanwhile North Carolina Senator, Thom Tillis, voted against the bill and shortly announced after that he won’t be running for re-election, preferring to spend time with his family instead of “navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington”

• Why Private Equity is all in on Insurance: Private Equity & Credit giants have grown to own 10% of life and annuity insurers. The insurance premiums we pay every month is very affordable cost of capital that can re-invested in credit securities that can generate solid returns for asset managers, while fueling future growth - here’s the full deep dive from the FT

• CoreWeave may buy Core Scientific, a bitcoin miner, as it looks to strengthen its cloud infrastructure and AI capabilities. Shares of Core Scientific jumped over 20% on the news, pushing the company to an almost $5B valuation

• Meta gets aggressive in AI: Meta is raising $29B in financing from large private credit managers (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, KKR, Carlyle, and PIMCO) to fund data center buildout and nuclear site purchases across the U.S.

  • Meanwhile, Meta continues to poach AI researchers, most recently three from OpenAI. In some cases, Zuckerberg has offered researchers $100mm to join Meta’s superintelligence efforts

• Salesforce is leveraging AI heavily, with about 30% to 50% of the company’s work being handled by AI according to CEO Marc Benioff

• Why Stablecoins are going mainstream: After Circle’s highly successful IPO, more companies are beginning to launch stablecoins. They have become easy to use, and are a way for corporations and merchants to avoid billions of dollars in transaction fees

• F1 Box Office Results: The F1 racing movie starring Brad Pitt had a budget of $250mm and delivered on the hype - raking in $144mm worldwide on opening weekend and marking the first commercial hit for Apple Studios

• Adult Sports consolidation - Volo, an adult sports league backed by Bluestone Equity Partners, has acquired ZogSports for a $10-$20mm valuation. Bluestone invested $21mm into Volo last year

• Uber in talks with its Founder, Travis Kalanick, to fund a self-driving car deal: Pony.ai (~ $4.2B enterprise value) was founded in the U.S. but operates mostly in China - offering Uber a chance to compete in the autonomous vehicle space with Waymo and Tesla

• Bill Ackman vs. Zohran: The Wall Street Billionaire is spending aggressively in the NYC Mayoral race, promising to fund a centrist candidate who can “save our City and be a superhero”

  • Meanwhile, Zohran has said “I don’t think that we should have billionaires” also noting that the property tax burden should be shifted to “more expensive homes in richer and whiter neighborhoods”

• Saks has reached a $600 million debt deal with a number of its existing investors that would force some creditors to accept losses and push them their priority. The $2.2B Saks bonds have stunningly stumbled, only six months after being priced by Jefferies, hitting a low of nearly 34 cents on the dollar

• McGraw Hill files an IPO. The education provider backed by Platinum Equity had LTM revenue of $2.1B and Adj. EBITDA of $726mm (34.6% margins). The Company has reserved the ticker “MH” and was sold to Platinum by Apollo for $4.7B in 2021

• NIQ Global Intelligence filed for an IPO - the business was previously purchased from Nielsen for $2.7B in 2021 by Advent, who has slashed the cost base by 20%+ and made small tuck-in acquisitions

• A Hung Deal may be syndicated: Patterson Companies, a dental and animal health markets supplier, recently acquired by Patient Square Capital, is trying to sell $2.35B of debt financing after the deal was initially hung due to volatility. UBS was unable to syndicate the $1.35B loan and Citi led the $1B in HY bonds

• GE Vernova is exploring a sale of its Proficy business - the industrial software unit could reportedly fetch $900mm-$1B

• AST SpaceMobile is eyeing record highs after being added to the Russell 1000, with the satellite manufacturer up 140% YTD following new partnerships

Together With Money.com 

Bridge the gap with student loans

June’s here—are your college costs covered? With final aid letters rolling in, now’s the time to see if there’s a gap. Federal aid might not cut it, but private loans can. Schools suggest applying early, so don’t wait. Check out Money’s top picks for low-rate, hassle-free student loans.

SEE MONEY’S TOP LENDERS

M&A Transactions💭 

Takanock, developer of an electrical technology designed to provide continuity of power data centers, was acquired for $500.0M by DigitalBridge Group and ArcLight Capital Partners. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

Pioneer, manufacturer of electronic and digital entertainment products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.15B by Innolux (TAI: 3481). EV/Revenue was 0.72x. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank Securities advised on the sale.

MRC Global (NYS: MRC), distributes pipes, valves, fittings, and other infrastructure products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by DNOW (NYS: DNOW). EV/EBITDA was 9.74x and EV/Revenue was 0.51x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

EWM, manufacturer of heavy industrial welding products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 275.0M by ESAB (NYS: ESAB).

Thee Hardware and Product Business of Amentum Services (NYS: AMTM) was acquired for $360.0M by Lockheed Martin (NYS: LMT).

Sky Deutschland, operator of a television broadcasting company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 527.0M by RTL Group (ETR: RRTL). PJT Partners advised on the sale.

ORLADEYO, a portfolio of medicine of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NAS: BCRX), has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $264.0M by Neopharmed Gentili. Bank of America and TD Cowen advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Mach Industries, operator of a defense manufacturing company, raised $102.0M of Series B venture funding led by Bedrock and Khosla Ventures.

Gentle Monster, operator of an eyewear brand, raised EUR 107.0M of venture funding from Google Korea.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 17% chance of Jay Powell being removed as Fed Chair this year

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆 

Until next time!

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Autopilot Portfolio Update: High Yield Harry recently launched 4 portfolios on Autopilot including The Golden Age of Private Credit portfolio and the Tariff Trade portfolio. You can autopilot my trades and strategies by signing up here.

Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page deck for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks.

Finance Merch Referrals ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.

Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.