August 3rd - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back and welcome to the 2nd slowest part of the year. Things generally grind to a halt in mid/late August going into Labor Day Weekend. Hope you all are having a great summer.

Futures are up a touch, but we finally got a bit of slowdown in the stock market, first from tariffs going into place, but mainly due to these terrible jobs numbers (prior months were revised down to negligible growth). Ultimately, the job market appears to be a lot weaker than people initially thought. This is likely the first stage of “tariff induced uncertainty” playing out in the market, as the uncertainty around cost structures and profit impact have slowed corporate hiring processes. Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Palantir Technologies, ON Semiconductor, Wayfair, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Williams Companies, Simon Property Group, Tyson Foods, Diamondback Energy

• Tuesday: AMD, Caterpillar, Amgen, Arista, Pfizer, Duke Energy, Transdigm, Apollo, Marriott, Zoetis, Aflac, Yum! Brands, Super Micro, DuPont, Gartner, Global Foundries, Snap, Rivian, Nebius, Celsius, Molson Coors

• Wednesday: McDonald's, Walt Disney, Uber, Airbnb, MetLife, AIG, Occidental Petroleum, CF Industries, U-Haul,

• Thursday: Eli Lilly, Toyota, ConocoPhillips, Brookfield, Constellation, Vistra, EOG, Monster, Sempra, Cheniere, Warner Bros. Discovery, US Foods, Ralph Lauren, Gilead

• Friday: Under Armour, Wendy’s, fuboTV, AMC Networks

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Factory orders (–4.9%)

• Tuesday: U.S. trade deficit ($61.0B), S&P final U.S. services PMI, ISM services (51.1%)

• Wednesday: Fed Gov. Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak 2:00 pm

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (221,000), U.S. productivity (1.9%), U.S. unit labor costs (1.3%), Wholesale inventories, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks (10:00 am), Consumer credit

Together With Shortcut

When saw Shortcut go live this past week, we knew we had to collaborate with them.

Born out of an MIT lab, Shortcut embeds Excel’s same exact look, feel, and interface into an agentic AI software.

Users can run prompts to automatically build models, as well as upload existing excel files into Shortcut.

See what all the online buzz is about:

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 2.5% ) Beat by $4.51B on revenue and $0.14 on EPS. Sales rose 10% y/y, led by strong iPhone demand and a rebound in China, where revenue grew 4% after two weak quarters. Management said one point of growth came from customers buying ahead of tariffs, which totaled $800M. Apple is ramping AI investment and remains open to M&A. Guides to mid to high single digit revenue growth and 46–47% gross margin next quarter.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 8.27% ) Revenue and EPS beat. Revenue came in at $167.7B and EPS at $1.68, both ahead of expectations, with sales up 13% y/y on strength in AWS, ads, and retail. However, a lighter than expected operating income guide raised concerns, especially as management flagged rising tariff pressure, elevated AI capex, and margin compression in AWS. Amazon guided third quarter revenue to $174B–$179.5B, implying 10–13% y/y growth.

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A ( ▼ 1.16% ) Miss on revenue, beat on EPS. Revenue came in at $12.37B, while operating EPS was $7,760, ahead of the $7,508 estimate. Operating income fell 4% y/y, driven by weaker insurance results and a $3.8B loss on its Kraft Heinz investment, reflecting a downward revaluation. Management warned that rising tariffs and trade uncertainty could impact most business lines and noted delays in shipments across several consumer brands.

Ares Management $ARES ( ▼ 1.46% ) Beat on revenue but missed on EPS as lighter performance fees pressured profitability despite solid top-line growth. Management commentary was limited, but full-year earnings and revenue estimates have been revised down in recent weeks, signaling softer expectations heading into the back half of the year.

KKR $KKR ( ▼ 2.75% ) Beat on revenue and EPS. Strong fundraising and a +18% y/y increase in management fees to $996M drove results, alongside solid performance across private equity, infrastructure, and real estate. Management highlighted $115B in uncalled capital and expects robust deployment activity in the second half of the year.

Mastercard $MA ( ▼ 1.16% ) Beat on revenue and EPS. Revenue came in at $8.13B vs. $7.95B est, and adjusted EPS hit $4.15. Cross border volume rose 15% y/y, supported by resilient travel and discretionary spending. Management guided to high-teens net revenue growth for third quarter and raised its full-year outlook to the high end of mid-teens.

Comcast $CMCSA ( ▼ 2.14% ) Beat on revenue and EPS. Revenue came in at $30.31B with net income of $11.12B, aided by stable broadband and wireless trends. Comcast repurchased 49M shares and declared a $0.33/share dividend.

Anheuser-Busch $BUD ( ▼ 0.99% ) Miss on revenue, in line on EPS. Sales fell 2.1% y/y to $15B vs. $15.3B, while EPS held steady at $0.98. EBITDA rose 6.5%, driven by strong pricing, margin expansion, and solid performance from premium and non-alcohol brands. Management flagged continued weakness in China and Brazil but gave no formal guidance.

Kimberly-Clark $KMB ( ▲ 4.83% ) Revenue missed, EPS in line. Volume rose 5% as cost-conscious consumers returned, driven by innovation and expanded value offerings. FX and divestitures weighed on reported sales, but management noted strong momentum in core categories. Full-year EPS is expected to grow in the low to mid-single digits, with organic sales now seen outpacing category averages.

Oil Roundup Both oil giants beat on revenue and EPS despite weaker oil prices. ExxonMobil $XOM ( ▼ 1.79% ) delivered record upstream production and strong product sales, with management citing consistent execution across cycles. No formal guidance was issued, but capital returns remain on pace and cash flow stayed strong. Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 0.16% ) also beat on both lines, supported by record Permian output and stronger refining margins. It expects the Hess deal to begin contributing to earnings by 4Q and is targeting $1B in cost synergies by end of 2025. Both companies are leaning into long-term production growth and shareholder returns.

Tonight’s Headlines 🍿 

• Unemployment numbers: Unemployment of 4.2%, up 0.1% was in line with expectations but jobs came in lower than expected, with 73k jobs (estimates were 104k). Job numbers for May and June were also revised lower to a respective 19k and 14k, down a combined 258k from previously announced levels. Growth mainly come from healthcare oriented work, with weak private sector numbers

  • Rate Cut odds are on the rise as a result, with traders now pricing in two cuts this year. Odds of a September cut are at ~80%, up over 40% from before the jobs report

  • Shortly after, Trump announced that the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be let go following Friday’s numbers, calling the job numbers inaccurate and pointing out that she was a Biden appointee. The BLS is a non-partisan agency, driving an uproar by many about whether data could be influenced in the future

• Tariffs officially went live: Here’s where several countries shake out

  • Our neighbor Canada is currently at a 35% blanket tariff rate, 10% higher than what was previously announced for the country. However, goods covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will remain exempt. An estimated 90% of their total exports will be covered, with small business likely feeling the 35% rate the hardest

  • Switzerland is surprisingly highest at 39% rates, shocking Swiss officials who were expecting to get a deal similar to the UK’s at 10%. Home to companies like Novartis and Roche, chemicals and pharmaceuticals were the country’s top export in 2024 - and possibly the reason for the higher rate

• Figma’s Hot IPO: Shares of the software maker soared during its stock market debut, rising a whopping 250% on its first day of trading before cooling a bit on Friday. With a market cap up over $50B, the company left ~$3B on the table by underpricing its shares

  • VCs win: Index Ventures, who invested ~$100mm now has a stake worth $7.2B+, while Greylock Partners’s $50mm investment is worth $6.75B

• Leveraged Loan Sales Record: July leveraged loan issuance in the U.S. reached a record high, as $222.2B of deal flow surpassed prior records of $206.7B in January, 2025

• Amphenol is nearing a deal to buy CommScope’s broadband connectivity and cable unit: Reported by the WSJ, the deal is valued around $10.5B. Commscope has needed to delever, while Amphenol, a designer of interconnect products, fiber-optic connectors, and specialty cables, is seeing robust AI-related demand

• A Fed Governor steps down: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is stepping down on August 8th, prior to when her term was set to end on January 31st. This will give President Trump the opportunity to appoint someone new to the Fed Board

• The Latest on the Pelosi ACT: The bill nears a vote as many lawmakers speak out against it, claiming that it would discourage the wealthy from entering Congress and is unnecessary because insider trading laws are already in place. Pelosi herself has supported the bill, which has been renamed the HONEST Act

• OPEC+ hikes oil output - agreeing to increase production by 547k barrels per day for September, citing a healthy economy and low stocks as its reasoning. This comes as the U.S. is pressuring India to end Russian oil purchases, threats that the country has so far ignored

• The Treasury Department wants your Venmo: Now live on their website is a “Gifts to Reduce the Public Debt” section that allows Americans to chip in towards the $37T in debt

• Blue Owl calls out the hot PE Secondaries market: Co-CEO Marc Lipschultz warns of “manic” levels of activity and says that discounted secondaries aren’t quite the free money that their demand would indicate

• Joby is weighing a Blade deal. Joby Aviation is exploring acquiring Blade, the helicopter ride-share company most known for flying people out to the Hamptons

• Ray Dalio has sold his last remaining stake in Bridgewater and is stepping away from the board of the Hedge Fund he founded

• RedZone is coming to ESPN: The sports network has reached a deal with the NFL to acquire RedZone and other top NFL media holdings, with the league set to receive up to 10% equity in ESPN in return. The deal is expected to be officially announced in Disney’s earnings call on Wednesday

AI leaders only: Get $100 to explore high-performance AI training data.

Train smarter AI with Shutterstock’s rights-cleared, enterprise-grade data across images, video, 3D, audio, and more—enriched by 20+ years of metadata. 600M+ assets and scalable licensing, We help AI teams improve performance and simplify data procurement. If you’re an AI decision maker, book a 30-minute call—qualified leads may receive a $100 Amazon gift card.

Book a call

_{For complete terms and conditions, see the offer page.}

M&A Transactions💭 

The Fiber Network Assets of TPG Telecom was acquired by Vocus Group for AUD 5.25B.

Spartan Resources, engages in the exploration and development of gold projects, was acquired for AUD 3.5B by Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS). EV/Cash Flow was 19.38x. BDO Capital Markets advised on the sale.

SAGE Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $795.0M by Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NAS: SUPN). EV/Revenue was 11.46x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, provider of futures brokerage and clearing services, was acquired for $1.032B by StoneX Group (NAS: SNEX). Broadhaven Capital Partners advised on the sale.

Orion Steel Group, manufacturer of engineered steel products, was acquired for $500.0M by Atlas Holdings.

Northwind Midstream Partners, developer and operator of off-spec natural gas infrastructure, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.375B by MPLX (NYS: MPLX).

Just Group (LON: JUST), financial service company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 2.4B by Brookfield Reinsurance (TSE: BNT). Evercore Group and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

FreeNow, developer of a taxi booking application, was acquired for EUR 175.0M by Lyft (NAS: LYFT). Lazard advised on the sale.

First National Financial (TSE: FN), a Canadian originator, underwriter, and services of predominantly prime residential and commercial mortgages, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 2.9B by Birch Hill Equity Partners and Brookfield Asset Management. The transaction values the company at an estimated CAD 4.68B. EV/Net Income was 35.59x and EV/Revenue was 10.27x. BMO Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Danelec Marine, manufacturer of maritime hardware products, was acquired for $194.0M by Gaztransport & Technigaz (PAR: GTT).

Colonial Pipeline, provider of transportation services for refined petroleum products, was acquired for $9.0B by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. Barclays and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Ziply Fiber, provider of fiber optic internet services, was acquired for CAD 7.0B by Bell Canada. EV/EBITDA was 17.73x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Telent, provider of communications support services, was acquired for GBP 300.0M by M Group Services.

Commonwealth Financial Network, provider of comprehensive financial services, was acquired for $2.7B by LPL Financial Holdings (NAS: LPLA). Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

QI Tech, developer of a banking-as-a-service platform, raised $313.0M of Series B venture funding led by General Atlantic.

Noma Security, developer of a comprehensive security platform, raised $10.0M of Series B venture funding led by Evolution Partners at a pre-money valuation of $400.0M.

Fal.ai, operator of a generative media platform, raised $125.0M through a combination of Series B and Series C venture funding led by Notable Capital and Meritech Capital Partners.

Anaconda, developer of a unified AI platform, raised approximately $150.0M of Series C venture funding led by Insight Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.35B.

Terrion, developer of secure and sustainable communication infrastructure, raised $1.26B of venture funding from Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec at a pre-money valuation of $1.34B.

OpenAI, raised $8.3B of venture funding led by Dragoneer Investment Group at a pre-money valuation of $291.7B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 73% chance of a 25bps rate cut in September

*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code “HYH”.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Meme Cleanser 😆

Until next time!

Housekeeping Items:

Our Weekly Poll:

Finance Jobs: Looking for a job in Finance? Join Buyside Hub to access the Job Board for free.

Access our Market Data: Our market data is sponsored by Koyfin, the best free financial analysis and visualization platform out there. Need premium analytics? Koyfin is offering Wall Street Rollup readers 15% off on any new sign-ups.  

Autopilot Portfolio Update: High Yield Harry recently launched 4 portfolios on Autopilot including The Golden Age of Private Credit portfolio and the Tariff Trade portfolio. You can autopilot my trades and strategies by signing up here.

Recruit for Investment Banking: High Yield Harry and a group of Investment Bankers put together a 248 page deck for those recruiting for Investment Banking - sign up for free here to learn more about our decks.

Join beehiiv: Looking to start your own newsletter? Join beehiiv through us and you’ll get 30 days free and 3 months of a 20% discount.

Finance Merch Referrals ☕️ 

Enjoyed the newsletter? Send it to a friend 🤝 

Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today’s Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc.

Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC (“Autopilot”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always be smart out there.