April 12th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Futures are down (S&P -1.2% and Nasdaq -1.4%) as Trump has announced U.S. naval blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and is weighing limited strikes on Iran to get them back to the negotiating table. Crude oil is back to 104. The blockage of oil passage is a big hit to China, Iran’s primary buyer.

Every Sunday has involved escalation or an imminent deadline, and then once the stock market opens, there’s suddenly a new stock market catalyst, negotiation talks, a ceasefire, or something encouraging. I hate to dumb it down like that but that’s ultimately what’s been happening over the past month and there’s inherent similarities to how President Trump was approaching tariff negotiations a year ago.

Here’s a look at earnings this week. Not sure where the time goes, but it’s already time for 2Q Bank earnings to kick off.

• Monday: Goldman Sachs, Fastenal

• Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Albertsons, CarMax

• Wednesday: ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC Financial Services, J.B. Hunt

• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Pepsico, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp

• Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, State Street, Regions Financial, Ally Financial

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Existing home sales (4.05M)

• Tuesday: NFIB optimism index, Producer price index (1.1%), Core PPI (0.4%), PPI y/y, Core PPI y/y

• Wednesday: Import price index (2.4%), Import price index minus fuel, Empire State manufacturing survey, Home builder confidence index (37), Fed Beige Book 

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (12.4), Industrial production (-0.1%), Capacity utilization (76.3%)

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On The Move 📈 📉

• ServiceNow $NOW ( ▼ 7.58% ) fell after UBS downgraded the stock, citing weakening AI confidence as enterprise spending shifts toward AI tools, pressuring demand for its core software.

• CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 10.87% ) climbed further after announcing a multi year cloud deal with Anthropic, adding another major AI customer and reinforcing demand for its infrastructure.

• Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▼ 13.99% ) fell after Barclays cut its price target to $1,950 from $2,400, citing growth concerns as elevated interest rates continue to pressure mortgage volumes.

• Crowdstrike $CRWD ( ▼ 3.97% ) , Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▼ 6.74% ) , and cybersecurity stocks continued to trade off after rumors around Anthropic’s Mythos model.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Blackstone is weighing a $2B IPO for a data acquisition firm, with Goldman set to lead the offering.

• Suja Life, an organic juice maker, has filed for a U.S. IPO after reporting 26% sales growth last year. The company estimates that it turned a profit of $7mm to $8.8mm in Q1.

• Hawkeye 360, a satellite-based signals intelligence company, has filed for an IPO amid a surge in defense tech investment, reporting 2025 revenue of $117 million, up from $67.7 million in 2024.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• March inflation spikes: Consumer prices rose 3.3% y/y last month, in line with expectations. While skyrocketing gasoline prices drove the headline number higher, core prices rose by 2.6% gain y/y, 0.1% below expectations.

• Private equity roll-ups drive ambulance price surge: A recent substack found that Ambulance vehicle costs have jumped to 300%+ over the past decade to a whopping $498k, with two PE-backed groups now controlling the majority of North American manufacturing. With aging fleets, expensive parts like a chassis, and rollups, higher ambulance fleet pricing is being passed on to municipalities and consumers.

• Over 50% of PE-backed CEOs fail to meet expectations: A new study finds most CEOs are replaced during the investment period, highlighting the pressure to deliver rapid value creation under tight timelines. HBR found that leaders who found success 1) translate strategy into a simple, repeatable message 2) hire talent to match the firm’s ambition 3) relentlessly focus on 3-5 “big rock” priorities and say no to everything else 4) design agile operating systems to connect short-term action with long-term strategy and 5) build “ownership cultures”.

• Ares eyes a smaller $20B direct lending fund: Ares is planning a scaled-back flagship US private credit vehicle targeting ~$20B, with $10-12B of equity and significantly less leverage than its prior $33.6B fund.

• PolyPeptide explores EQT, KKR takeover: The Swiss contract drugmaker attracts interest from EQT, KKR, and Advent as it ramps up production of obesity and diabetes peptides.

• Vista’s Loan-To-Own fund: The firm’s credit-investing arm is raising $250mm for a new fund to buy deteriorating debt of software companies. The fund will target a mix of private and broadly syndicated loans as it aims to capitalize on recent AI-driven selloffs.

• Banks build new way to bet against private credit: JPMorgan and other large banks are working with S&P Global to launch CDX Financials, an index of credit-default swaps that includes names like Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone.

• Three former OpenAI Stargate leaders are joining Meta to support its AI infrastructure projects as Zuckerberg continues to aggressively add talent.

• Trump’s World Liberty Financial borrowed $75mm in stablecoins by pledging its own WLFI tokens as collateral, a circular move that raised conflict-of-interest concerns and locked up liquidity for other investors, sending the token’s price to record lows.

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie hits $629mm at the global box office during its 2nd weekend in theaters.

M&A Transactions💭 

Itochu-Shokuhin, a Japan-based wholesale and distribution of food company, was acquired for JPY 61.9996B by G. K. FMDI. Nomura advised on the sale.

Fosber, designer and manufacturer, was acquired for $900.0M by Dongfang Precision (SHE: 002611). EV/EBITDA was 8.87x and EV/Revenue was 1.6x.

Corient acquired Vivaldi Capital Management, a Chicago-based wealth manager, adding $5.6B in client AUM.

Federal Capital Partners, operator of a real estate investment firm, was acquired for $331.0M by Federated Hermes (NYS: FHI). EV/Revenue was 7.07x. Berkshire Global Advisors advised on the sale.

GTCR completed its acquisition of Zentiva, a European generics pharmaceutical company, from Advent.

Gruns, a gummy supplement DTC startup has been acquired by Unilever for $1.2B.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Shengshu Technology, developer of an AI 3D image generator, raised nearly 2.0B yuan of Series B venture funding led by Alibaba Cloud Computing.

Chapter raised a $100mm Series E at a $3B valuation, led by Generation Investment Management

Tiger Global has agreed to invest in PopUp Bagels at a $300.0M valuation.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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Memes of the Day 🧭

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